What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[GQBlues]

Arhhhh--let's see--- this is coming from a guy that argues the Government of a country is illegitimate and thus it is ok for those that choose to go on a murderous rampage of robbing,looting,killing etc. And then they are entitled to secede--because they say so!!
Pretty clear who is clueless.

I didn't argue the present government in Ukraine is illegitimate. I didn't have to because it is illegitimate. That is a fact.

The clueless title goes to you. LOL. It isn't hard to ascertain who the 3 stooges in this thread. With sparring cameo by Curly from Chelsea.

[fathertime]

Arhhhh--let's see--- this is coming from a guy that argues the Government of a country is illegitimate and thus it is ok for those that choose to go on a murderous rampage of robbing,looting,killing etc. And then they are entitled to secede--because they say so!!
Pretty clear who is clueless.

You are not being truthful when u say he said it was ok to go killing people. Yes he feels the govt is illegitimate. It appears quite a few Ukrainians feel the same way, and some are willing to take up arms...the result is deaths.Pointing that out doesn't equate to cheering on the killing. By your logic one could say u took unusual delight when the people were burned in odessa.
Fathertime!

[fathertime]

Regarding this agreement in the Philippines:  Does anybody know what the agreement states?  What exactly are we *The US* promising and getting in return?


Fathertime!   

[Maxx2]

The PI already has a homosexual for a President. Not sure it wants another.

Gosh GQ, now he is calling you a homo

[GQBlues]

Regarding this agreement in the Philippines:  Does anybody know what the agreement states?  What exactly are we *The US* promising and getting in return?

First off, it's supposed to be an executive agreement and not by any means a 'treaty'. The EDCA is composed of 12 articles and is sanitized and summarized here (actual Agreement not available at press time)...

http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/analyzing-the-us-philippines-enhanced-defense-cooperation-agreement/

Promise: To uphold international rights over international waters as governed by the United Nations (US being a SC principal as is China).
Getting: First strike capabilities, military presence, significant strategic location due to increasing Asiatic tensions..

[GQBlues]

Gosh GQ, now he is calling you a homo

Yeah, well, what else do you expect a typical loser would revert to?

[BillyB]

China and Russia has been improving economic ties over the past few months and now Russia scored a massive 30 year gas pipeline deal with China. Russia could soon turn off the gas to Europe before Europe finds other ways to supply their needs. Putin is showing his citizens he's still one step ahead of Western leaders. I'm not surprised that Russia and China recently have extended their borders at the same time. The new Axis?


http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-scores-massive-gas-pipeline-deal-with-china-2014-5

[Gator]

I didn't argue the present government in Ukraine is illegitimate. I didn't have to because it is illegitimate.

Far too sweeping of a statement. 


The elected representatives of Verkhovna Rada remain unchanged after Yanukovych was deposed.  Thus, the legislative component of government is legitimate.   

Most of the cabinet too.  Judicial? 

Yanukovych's successor will be determined in the upcoming election.  Meanwhile, Rada appointed an acting head of Presidential administration (whatever that means) as a temporary caretaker (somebody was needed).  The election will make him moot.
 

[GQBlues]

Far too sweeping of a statement. 

The elected representatives of Verkhovna Rada remain unchanged after Yanukovych was deposed.  Thus, the legislative component of government is legitimate.   

Most of the cabinet too.  Judicial? 

The actual deposition of the president itself was against the rule of law. Unconstitutional, thus ensuing governance is illegitimate.

as defined, 'against law or rules: not carried out, made, or constituted in accordance with the law, the rules governing a specific activity, or social norms and customs..' - makes it illegitimate.

[Steamer]

China and Russia has been improving economic ties over the past few months and now Russia scored a massive 30 year gas pipeline deal with China. Russia could soon turn off the gas to Europe before Europe finds other ways to supply their needs. Putin is showing his citizens he's still one step ahead of Western leaders. I'm not surprised that Russia and China recently have extended their borders at the same time. The new Axis?

What else would you expect? The EU and the US keep screwing with Russia they will sell their gas elsewhere. Russia can't touch the US but they can sure touch the EU. I expect soon that the EU will tell the US to cram their help and human rights where the sun doesn't shine.

[The Natural]

What else would you expect? The EU and the US keep screwing with Russia they will sell their gas elsewhere. Russia can't touch the US but they can sure touch the EU. I expect soon that the EU will tell the US to cram their help and human rights where the sun doesn't shine.

The gas pipelines goes through Ukraine and then to the European countries. The Europeans pay their bills but the illegitimate bandits in Kiev does not and is Owing 3,5 billion to Russia. Gas as a weapon? Is Russia supposed to provide Ukraine With free gas? And Washington With it's European lackeys have just about declared war, through economic means, on Russia via sanctions. Who knows what will happen, but if the Europeans (which is divided in it's view on this situation) don't make sure the criminals pay for the gas, they deserve to have it cut.

Another thing to keep in mind in the weeks to come is what Russia (and China) might do With their trade denominated in dollars. Reports are that Russia plan to use other currencies than the US dollar in trade and Putin is going to China for talks Next week. Just mentioning it......

[stilllooking]

Not much noise about Russian being willing to annex the areas which held a referendum on Sunday. Things moved a lot quicker in Crimea after the referendum there.

Does Putin not really want the area? Is Putin better served with the chaos caused by the seperatists? How will the seperatists and even those who want to be part of Russia feel if Putin ignores their plea? Will we see the birth of a lawless area? Have things gone further than Putin intended and he needs a bit of time to decide what next? Have they not gone as far as Putin intended and is he reconsidering his options?

[lordtiberius]

The leader of the opposition is an ancient warfare reenactor named Strelkov:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA4E06E20140515?irpc=932

[Anotherkiwi]

The elected representatives of Verkhovna Rada remain unchanged after Yanukovych was deposed.  Thus, the legislative component of government is legitimate.   

Most of the cabinet too.  Judicial? 

This is what I've been writing for ages, but which other people seem to conveniently ignore - interesting that there has never been a response directly addressed to this point.

The actual deposition of the president itself was against the rule of law. Unconstitutional, thus ensuing governance is illegitimate.

as defined, 'against law or rules: not carried out, made, or constituted in accordance with the law, the rules governing a specific activity, or social norms and customs..' - makes it illegitimate.

We know the point you're making, because you've been making it for quite a while, but have you now changed your words because you realise that other people do actually have a legitimate point of view?  If Yanukovych's removal was illegal, as you insist, then I agree that subsequent governance in the name of the President would be illegal.  That doesn't change the fact that the Government itself has not changed, and therefore any of its own subsequent actions made within the law cannot possibly be deemed to be illegal.  Not necessarily best practice, perhaps, given some of what has happened since February, but not illegal.

[BillyB]

Does Putin not really want the area? Is Putin better served with the chaos caused by the seperatists?

If Putin annexes east Ukraine now, his game in Ukraine is over. Putin will not be able to do to west Ukraine what he's doing in east Ukraine. He needs east Ukraine to continue it's resistance to Kiev and start a civil war. If east Ukraine wins, Putin regains control of all Ukraine through annexation or installing another puppet president.


Putin's problem now is east Ukrainians have not risen against Kiev and west Ukrainians as much as he'd like. More civilians need to be shot by mysterious people saying they are representing the government in Kiev for a civil war to happen.


Putin is also looking into the future. He sent a high level diplomat to Moldova to have people sign a petition to join Russia and delivered that petition to Putin just a few days ago.

What else would you expect?

I expected it. Did Obama? Did Obama believe taking business away from Russia will not present Russia with other opportunities? Earlier in this thread I debated against people who thought China was on our side on this issue. See the Prez of China shaking hands with Putin over the gas deal? Behind closed doors you can be sure they talked about how to continue to expand and keep the West from reacting. Those two nations with their mad dogs, Iran and North Korea, can cause serious damage in the region and scare the West into doing nothing.

I expect soon that the EU will tell the US to cram their help and human rights where the sun doesn't shine.

The EU have already provided resistance to what Obama is trying to do and many consider what Obama is trying to do is soft. They may someday ask America to back off Ukraine and pretend Russia has rights there.


When Hitler annexed Czechoslovakia and Austria, other European nations didn't want war and pretended Hitler's grievances were justified and that Hitler's intentions were limited. Putin knows history. There's so much he and China can do before the West will actually use military means to stop them. I don't think Russia and China wants war but they do want what they can get away with.

[LiveFromUkraine]

That doesn't change the fact that the Government itself has not changed, and therefore any of its own subsequent actions made within the law cannot possibly be deemed to be illegal.  Not necessarily best practice, perhaps, given some of what has happened since February, but not illegal.

It seems you don't count the President as being part of the government.   Removing the President without following the rules designated within their Constitution would be considered illegal by most.

[fathertime]

If Putin annexes east Ukraine now, his game in Ukraine is over. Putin will not be able to do to west Ukraine what he's doing in east Ukraine. He needs east Ukraine to continue it's resistance to Kiev and start a civil war. If east Ukraine wins, Putin regains control of all Ukraine through annexation or installing another puppet president.


Putin's problem now is east Ukrainians have not risen against Kiev and west Ukrainians as much as he'd like. More civilians need to be shot by mysterious people saying they are representing the government in Kiev for a civil war to happen.

Hey Billyb, this seems a little far fetched to me....I really don't think V. Putin expected to take over all of Ukraine...that was never on the table....What is going on in E. Ukraine, may serve Russia's wants just fine...it will depend on what the agreement winds up being....if those Eastern regions gain autonomy, then I believe Russia winds up with the very most they could have realistically expected.  Occupying the area is/was not what they want...I believe Ukraine would be best served to give the regions the autonomy and work with what they firmly have.


One problem that has developed is that, in these regions the separatists  are now going to boycott the national vote on May 25, as they have declared themselves completely separate.  IMO that is not realistically going to happen and after that election, they need to stand down, and be included in the future talks pertaining to their respective regions. The USA really doesn't need to have any role in this except to serve the drinks at the meeting.   
Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

China and Russia has been improving economic ties over the past few months and now Russia scored a massive 30 year gas pipeline deal with China. Russia could soon turn off the gas to Europe before Europe finds other ways to supply their needs. Putin is showing his citizens he's still one step ahead of Western leaders. I'm not surprised that Russia and China recently have extended their borders at the same time. The new Axis?


http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-scores-massive-gas-pipeline-deal-with-china-2014-5

hey Billyb,

Regarding China,  I believe in a lot of respects they have the positional edge on the USA. They are buying swaths of land around the world, and their citizens and expatriates  are buying much of California!  We do owe them a lot of money, their factories do produce a lot of our stuff.  Sure we default on them, but that would be the end of us too, as our dollar would be destroyed.  We could stop buying the stuff made in China, but I don't think that would destroy them, because their are almost 200 other countries in the world and someone will buy a lot of their goods, at a reduced price, in addition they can always keep the stuff they make and improve their own lives.  Overall, I'd say it is better to be the country making the stuff and selling it, rather than the country borrowing and buying it.      From what I've seen China has clearly leaned Russian and will undermine any sanctions we try to impose.China continues to position itself, while we get wrapped up in these stupid foreign wartime adventures. I don't think it would be a great move to play hardball with china given the position we have put ourselves in.  It is high time for the USA to focus on our own needs within the country itself. IMO


Fathertime!   

[BC]

Not much noise about Russian being willing to annex the areas which held a referendum on Sunday. Things moved a lot quicker in Crimea after the referendum there.

Does Putin not really want the area? Is Putin better served with the chaos caused by the seperatists? How will the seperatists and even those who want to be part of Russia feel if Putin ignores their plea? Will we see the birth of a lawless area? Have things gone further than Putin intended and he needs a bit of time to decide what next? Have they not gone as far as Putin intended and is he reconsidering his options?

Crimea was an easy catch.  Now Putin left the rest to continue unrest with an untested government.  Surprise.. he won't have to take it.  I really don't see much interest from the US and EU to help get UA back on it's feet again..  Oh some loans with hefty strings attached that will end up in RU koffers anyway..

I think EU and even the US is learning that UA is a complete rats nest and neither is willing to invest heavily, financially or otherwise in any manner that is not fully secured with rock solid guarantees. 

Putin is just giving the west a chance to get their toes wet then decide the water is too hot and pull back.  When they do he will step in and take it all with little protest.

At the moment it's a waiting game and time is on Putin's side.

The next big test will be winter.  If UA has not paid it's bills by then the gas will get cut off and Putin will be able to say 'I told you so..'

A freezing UA will will be partially fed gas by EU (maybe enough for the western part) and Putin will draw lines and take the East.

Game over.

[GQBlues]

... If Yanukovych's removal was illegal, as you insist, then I agree that subsequent governance in the name of the President would be illegal.

There's no 'IF'. That's the sole and only point.

Similarly, Bill Clinton was impeached by the HoR, acquitted by the HoS. Had he been removed from office despite the acquittal and was replaced by the VP, it would have been unconstitutional (illegal). The ensuing BODY of governance is illegitimate because the executive branch is an integral part of the collective governing system.

Or using another term, the government would have become a *bastard* offspring.

[GQBlues]

..Not much noise about Russian being willing to annex the areas which held a referendum on Sunday....

No, because Germany took the lead for talks with Kiev, US, Russia in hopes to broker a power sharing deal whereas eastern Ukraine, in an attempt to avoid any annexation to Russia due to last Sunday's referendum result, would be entitled to political leverage in the government.

Moscow already expressed they are not interested in changing the borders with Ukraine and annex eastern Ukraine but reiterated they will not hesitate in protecting its citizens if a civil war breaks out.

Fighting has continued in the area. Even a UN helicopter is now being used for military purposes.

[stilllooking]

and how does that differ from what Putin was saying before Crimea was annexed, yet he wasted little time after the 'referendum' in doing so? He said he would respect the will of the people, yet,

Maybe he has discovered he can not afford Eastern Ukraine? Interesting that today he has asked the EU to do more to support Ukraine financially yet Russia pulled the rug from under Ukraine by stopping their financial support (then again, that money probably needed to afford Crimea). He is basically demanding the west help Ukraine but will not allow Ukraine to move closer to the West, bit of a double standard.

A bit like the double standard of calling the current government 'illegitimate' but also demanding they grant the regions more autonomy. If the current government is indeed 'illegitimate', then any decision they make on policy would not be 'legitimate' and thus the any decision they make on autonomy of the regions should not be 'legitimate'.

[fathertime]

A bit like the double standard of calling the current government 'illegitimate' but also demanding they grant the regions more autonomy. If the current government is indeed 'illegitimate', then any decision they make on policy would not be 'legitimate' and thus the any decision they make on autonomy of the regions should not be 'legitimate'.

I agree that the temporary government should not make longstanding agreements regarding the autonomy or anything else!  They can begin the talks, and propose framework but the final decision should be made by a more accepted government.  Elections are next week and hopefully at that point the govt will be seen as reasonably legitimate.
Fathertime!

[GQBlues]

...At the moment it's a waiting game and time is on Putin's side.....

Time is just one of them...for the most part, the EU is fully aware you can't cut off your foot in an attempt to make progressive strides favorable to the west against Russia. The EU members are divided in assessing what proper cause of actions should be taken to curtail further escalation of the current state of affairs in Ukraine. They are literally in a political/economical treadmill.

Anything short of the current talks in Kiev that gives eastern Ukraine a sizeable share of power in Kiev will likely have an immense negative effect not only for Russia/Ukraine but reverberating all across Europe.


****************************
add:

Interesting comments following the article above. In particular, the second one..

2. peskyvera 05/12/2014
>>Serious sanctions should be imposed on the US - it is they who financed the coup which brought neo-Nazis to power. What is unbelievable is the EU blindly and stupidly supporting this. Obedient US lap dogs.<<

Good observation. For a European 

[BillyB]

Maybe he has discovered he can not afford Eastern Ukraine?

Putin just doesn't discover things. Putin had contingency plans made up years ago for various scenarios. That's what smart people and nations do. They prepare for the future. Putin already knew what he was going to do if he ever lost control of his puppet president should he became a traitor or if he is overthrown. Putin knew what he was going to do if Ukraine got too cozy with the West. He knows his best opportunity to act is when Ukraine is at it's weakest.


Russia and the EU were willing to pump money into Ukraine before the revolution. No matter how bad Ukraine's economy, there's value in land and in humans. 45 million people and land the size of Texas has value. If I owned all that, I instantly become a player in this world. In this world, size and numbers matter. Influence over or annexation of Ukraine is beneficial to Russia.


Annexation of Ukraine is the sure way Putin will guarantee Ukraine will never join NATO. Installing a puppet president may be cheaper but another Ukrainian revolution is guaranteed to happen in the future. If Putin chooses puppet president, he can milk Ukraine with lopsided business deals approved by a pro Russian Ukrainian government without having to provide any money towards Ukraine's infrastructure and economic growth.


Since Crimea has been annexed, Russia is investing money there. There are costs. Russia signed a deal to have China build a bridge in Crimea as one example. Russia will probably pay China with resources for capital projects so it won't cost much out of pocket. It would cost Russia much more to rebuild Ukraine if they annexed it. Maybe it's best the West rebuild Ukraine first before annexation?

Interesting that today he has asked the EU to do more to support Ukraine financially yet Russia pulled the rug from under Ukraine by stopping their financial support (then again, that money probably needed to afford Crimea). He is basically demanding the west help Ukraine but will not allow Ukraine to move closer to the West, bit of a double standard.

Putin is smart. He hopes the West sends a few billion dollars to improve Ukraine and in the end, who do you think will benefit from that money? This thing may drag on for years before we find out.