What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[BillyB]

Ukraine can not stop Russia if Putin is prepared to go "all in."  Only a megalomaniac would go "all in" and suffer the economic harm of having limited access to international market. 

Putin has decided to go all in but doing as little as possible. He hoped for the Ukrainians to destroy themselves in a civil war. Didn't happen so he sent Russian irregular army in and backed rebels. Not working as the rebels are losing so he'll be sending in his army in as much as necessary to complete his objective.


Obama and Europeans have made statements pertaining to every one of Putin's move. We've heard Putin's move's are "provocative" and "there will be consequences". As long as Putin continues to hear words and the only actions are limited sanctions, he will proceed. European leaders and the American President had choice words for Hitler's moves when he annexed Czechoslovakia and Austria but little was done to discourage Hitler from proceeding.


I don't think Putin is going to be stopped by sanctions. Of course he doesn't want the Russian economy hurt but sometimes war makes a nation stronger. Russia almost was defeated in WW2 and quickly became a superpower. America also became stronger. If a reason to fight gets his people to work harder and advance technology, Russia will benefit.


Obama is a president who is of little or wrong action when it comes to foreign policy. He doesn't show strong support of our friends and tries to befriend our adversaries. It's no surprise there are problems all over the world. Terrorists are trying to take control of Iraq and moving on Israel. We did little in Syria to stop growing problems and ISIS is operating out of there. We know how that turned out. Russia and China playing bullies on their neighbors. They better take what they can now before Obama leaves office. The next America president isn't going to let them get away with things as easily.

[jone]

Obama is a president who is of little or wrong action when it comes to foreign policy. He doesn't show strong support of our friends and tries to befriend our adversaries. It's no surprise there are problems all over the world.

This is an excellent couple of sentences that sums up how I feel, as well, about the US foreign policy.  Well said, Billy.

[lordtiberius]

Putin has decided to go all in but doing as little as possible.

You can't go all in and do as little as possible.  All In means committed.  Commitment is antithetical to indifference.

[lordtiberius]

Ambassador McFaul outlined a strategy that the White House is mulling over:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/07/opinion/to-beat-putin-support-ukraine.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

Even if complete military victory is achievable, the Kiev government must realize that the benefits of some negotiation process with the local population outweigh the costs of ruling the region as occupiers. How it wins the war will determine how lasting the peace will be.

Perhaps it is time for Ukraine supporters in the West to think about what they want in the next US President, what should our Policy be against Putin and the region. 

Direct US intervention might have averted this crisis during the little green men stage.  But I do not think it is helpful now.  The best thing the US can do is isolate Russia, sanction Russia and arm her enemies along the border and fund those activists inside the border working for peaceful change. 

In the end, whether we fund the Russians or not, Russian pro-democracy activists will turn separatist.  The peoples of Siberia, Kuban, the Islands off Japan,  Kaliningrad, the Caucuses, Tartarstan and Karelia will stop feeding Moscow and perhaps the long night of Sovietism will be over.

[Shadow]

Ambassador McFaul outlined a strategy that the White House is mulling over:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/07/opinion/to-beat-putin-support-ukraine.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

Perhaps it is time for Ukraine supporters in the West to think about what they want in the next US President, what should our Policy be against Putin and the region. 

Direct US intervention might have averted this crisis during the little green men stage.  But I do not think it is helpful now.  The best thing the US can do is isolate Russia, sanction Russia and arm her enemies along the border and fund those activists inside the border working for peaceful change. 

In the end, whether we fund the Russians or not, Russian pro-democracy activists will turn separatist.  The peoples of Siberia, Kuban, the Islands off Japan,  Kaliningrad, the Caucuses, Tartarstan and Karelia will stop feeding Moscow and perhaps the long night of Sovietism will be over.

You should consider writing stories...

[GQBlues]

First thing, not Igor Bereza but Yuri Bereza
He is commander of Battalion "Dnepr-1" and as well Chief of Headquarters of the national defense of Dnipropetrovsk region.

In March after the beginning of the Crimean crisis was re-established National Guard of Ukraine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Guard_of_Ukraine
National Guard was created partially on the basis of the Internal Troops of Ukraine and consisted militia as well as armed wings, volunteers are also have been accepted (and that is how my brother ended up in it) and heavily  reliant on reserve units.

Due to events on the territory of the neighboring Donetsk and Luhansk, in April in Dnipropetrovsk have been formed National Defense of Dnipropetrovsk region. They are not some kind of irregular forces, such units created in most regions of Ukraine and similar in the way 72nd brigade was created in my hometown which my brother joined, all these units are part of National Guard and reserve units.

15,000 man aged between 19 and 50 came and voluntarily placed their name on Dnipropetrovsk reserve list and ready if called for to go defend their country. What is bad in that, GQB? They are simple citizens: husbands, brothers and sons, they are ready to fight for their country and all what it shows not how bad is Kolomoisky but that Ukrainians have no desire to be once again under Russian dictator.
Actually list already closer to 27,000, around 15,000 was in May.

Now 2,000 mentioned as combat-ready troops is now closer to 3,000 and those are 4 battalions: two battalions of special forces "Dnipro-1" and "Dnipro-2", and two battalions of territorial defense.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipro_Battalion

All those 4 battalions are part of National Guard of Ukraine. The difference is Kolomoisky donates a lot of money to fed, dress and equip Dnipropetrovsk's battalions.

Do not get it wrong, Kolomoisky is far from angel, his donations are driven not just by poor patriotism but also by his business. Russia  takes over Dnipropetrovsk he will loose way more than what he donates to Ukrainian army.
Ukrainians know that.


Why do you even read such gibberish?  Kolomoisky’s forces is nickname, all those battalions are units of the National Guard, operated by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.
Yes, some individuals in those battalions are very much questionable and hold (in my opinion) way too extreme believes (but so are many members of this forum also in my opinion).
Could you provide any evidence that Dnipro-1 'was responsible for the deadly May 1 fire-bombing of the trade union building in Odessa and the burning alive of people trapped inside the Mariupol Police Station on May 9.'?


Purpose of The National Guard is maintaining public order, upholding the constitutional order and restoring the activity of state bodies, upholding Part 1 of Art. 109 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine as well as  counterinsurgency.


I completely agree with Kolomoisky in calling Putin "a schizophrenic, short in stature". Actually assessment is very much spot on.
I can not understand what is wrong with donations someone does to support own country's army when sovereignty of that country is in danger. So he is rich and chooses to spent "several million dollars" on buying car batteries for military vehicles, clothing, food,  it is donation after all. He is aware country doesn't have the money required to equip army, he is aware of state of Ukrainian army and it is not something any another Ukrainian is not aware of. He can help and chooses to help, is that really bad? Would other countries when their sovereignty is under threat refuse donations from its population to support army protecting their own country?


What is wrong with offering bounty for handing in to authorities weapons belonging to insurgents? not to him but to appropriate authorities! What is wrong with offering reward for capturing those who trying to seize government  buildings? What western countries do not offer rewards for helping to capture criminals?
Are you aware that most of those who have been seizing building and standing up on pro-russians demonstrations have been paid for? Blatantly open and without any shame using economic desperation of population. All what Kolomoisky did is offered way bigger money for the capture of any Russian saboteur than what Russian saboteurs have been offering for seizing ukrainian government buildings. And you know what that was a turning point in seizing government buildings. He didn't offer money for Ukrainian saboteurs, he didn't offer money for Russian-heritage-but-Ukrainian-citizen saboteurs, he offered money for Russian tourist-insurgents. Those who had no right in saying what should be destiny of Ukraine but thought they could come and do whatever they wish on Ukrainian land....

WOW! That's a whole lot of typing, MissA. You agree with me all along but you just wanted to make it seem as though you don't. I understand. 

 

...In the link you provided I do not see any confirmation by OSCE of presence of 'irregular armies'. If you can provide
exact quote I will answer....

It's  daily report, MissA. I know you're a bit late in these discussions but they're (quotes) in there, I assure you.

...I am lost once again with such general statement. Who do you call 'paid mercenaries'?...

They're all in those links previously provided to you.

[lordtiberius]

You should consider writing stories...

http://www.free-karelia.org/eng/About.aspx

http://thediplomat.com/2014/08/kuril-islands-dispute-back-to-gridlock/

Russia is the old sick man of Europe

[Shadow]

Bavaria wants to get out of the German Federation.
Texas wants to leave the U.S.
The Flemish want to split up Belgium.
And so on...

[missAmeno]

WOW! That's a whole lot of typing, MissA. You agree with me all along but you just wanted to make it seem as though you don't. I understand. 

 

Yeah, you wish 

It's  daily report, MissA. I know you're a bit late in these discussions but they're (quotes) in there, I assure you.

They're all in those links previously provided to you.

I have seen daily reports and all links you posted, in there is nothing close to what you stated and that is why I asked to post exact quote you are struggling to understand in OSCE reports.

[lordtiberius]

Bavaria wants to get out of the German Federation.
Texas wants to leave the U.S.
The Flemish want to split up Belgium.
And so on...

I live in Texas and I think Obama is horrible President.  But Obama doesn't jail or beat up his enemies.  Why does Putin do it?  Why do you defend it?

[BillyB]

You can't go all in and do as little as possible.  All In means committed.

Putin is committed to achieving his goals in Ukraine. He can do as little as possible and still be committed. Just because he didn't send in his full Army from the beginning doesn't mean he's not all in. The reason he does a little as possible to achieve his goals is to minimize the damage to the Russian economy. If in the end, the rebels(guinea pigs) fail, I believe Putin will send in his Army to take some or all of the land in Ukraine.

[lordtiberius]

My objection was one of semantics.

A good commander when he wages war, does not dicker over costs.  Yet you describe Putin and his commitment accurately.  I don't think he is in control of the situation.  Slaviansk proved the turning point to where he is losing control and there is nothing he can do to regain control.  Everyone knows my views of Mr. Obama, yet I believe Mr. Obama will humiliate President Putin and he is a dead man walking.  He cannot win in Ukraine even if he does what you describe as go ALL IN. 

Crimea proves the most expensive piece of Real Estate for the President of Russia.  It cost him his most valuable asset - the mask by which he can perpetrate his villainy.

[Shadow]

I live in Texas and I think Obama is horrible President.  But Obama doesn't jail or beat up his enemies.  Why does Putin do it?  Why do you defend it?

Ferguson.

[missAmeno]

http://gazeta.ua/articles/np/_odeskij-bataljon-storm-rozpoviv-pro-bij-z-desantnikami-z-pskova/577067

[BillyB]

A good commander when he wages war, does not dicker over costs. 

The best commanders, civilian or military, do factor in costs pertaining to money, equipment and life. If he has to wait longer for the weather to be favorable, to get on higher ground, or let the propaganda or guinea pigs do it's work, he will wait. Putin is saving his soldiers lives and limiting damage to his economy by letting the guinea pigs do their work first. Even if it takes years to complete his objective, he's making smart moves.

[lordtiberius]

he's making smart moves.

We are talking about Putin right?  Putin is no Uncle Ho.  His economy is bleeding jobs.  Crimea is an economic basket case and a full on invasion will separate him from his friends in Europe.  He is also very vulnerable in Asia.  The opposition at home grows.  You see this guy as an evil genius but he is about to get dusted by our leading from up his behind Nobel Peace Prize winner of a President because his commitment to Ukraine is largely emotional.  He has gained nothing but lost much including the pro-Russia ideas in Eastern and Central Ukraine

[fathertime]

We are talking about Putin right?  Putin is no Uncle Ho.  His economy is bleeding jobs.  Crimea is an economic basket case and a full on invasion will separate him from his friends in Europe.  He is also very vulnerable in Asia.  The opposition at home grows.  You see this guy as an evil genius but he is about to get dusted by our leading from up his behind Nobel Peace Prize winner of a President because his commitment to Ukraine is largely emotional.  He has gained nothing but lost much including the pro-Russia ideas in Eastern and Central Ukraine

This is all wishful thinking on your end... i believe Billyb is right regarding the moves Putin has made.

Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

i believe Billyb is right regarding the moves Putin has made.

Fathertime!

Where's the win win?  Tell us this is not a Russian invasion. 

Oh by the way Billy, Putin is going from a insurgency to terrorism.  That is not progress.  And to have any chance at terrorism, you need human assets in the target country.  Those human assets though still substantial ain't what they use to be. 

Vlad maybe a god to some, but to me, he is a dumbass

[lordtiberius]

Billyb is right regarding the moves Putin has made.

Fathertime!

Alibi

Why are you defending Putin?  Just try and tell us that you are not

[lordtiberius]

Ferguson.

You don't know what you are talking about.  198 Dutch die because of Putin and you want to talk about Ferguson?

smh

[fathertime]

Alibi

Why are you defending Putin?  Just try and tell us that you are not

Just shooting down some of your wishful silliness.  I don't believe v. Putin will shortly be overthrown like you do. 
Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

Just shooting down some of your wishful silliness.  I don't believe v. Putin will shortly be overthrown like you do. 
Fathertime!

Why are you defending this man?  What is it you admire?  Why are you covering up for his crimes?  Where's the win win?

[fathertime]

Why are you defending this man?  What is it you admire?  Why are you covering up for his crimes?  Where's the win win?

I don't believe he will be removed from office like you insist he will be. I think you hope it will be the case so you write it here as if it is fact when it is actually pure angry conjecture on your part.

Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

I don't believe he will be removed from office like you insist he will be.  , , ,

noted



so why are you defending Putin?

[Shadow]

You don't know what you are talking about.  198 Dutch die because of Putin and you want to talk about Ferguson?

smh

They died because of a Dutch EU commisioner who claimed victory.
And war mongers like you.