What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[JayH]

Following on LT's post above  and making a similar major point.
My apologies to the author of the work below ( Allan)



"To all the true believers:

I am really glad that so many individuals on this Site are so Pro-Russian that any rational discussion about Russian strength or aggression are dismissed.  I have found that when individuals can't accept the facts or have their minds made up they will immediately go into their default arguments of "well it is you that are being influenced by Western media...Oh no my media gives me nothing but the facts".  These True Believers are so vested with their views that they are blinded by them.  This is actually a good thing.

As an ex-military man with black ops. experience, the biggest advantage any military force can have, is an adversary that truly does believe it is Superior.  Most countries with weak Armed Forces can do one thing...That is beat their chest and Bloviate...sound familiar???  This behavior is all factored into the mix.  The US does not get all concerned when Russian fighters violate our air space in Alaska or the Gulf of Mexico.  No we actually scramble some old fighters from our National Guard units and shoo them away.  These intruders never see the super fast technical advanced fighters with lazer mounted weapons....those are in hangers far away.

As I have mentioned in this forum before.  It is really quite simple.  A Socialistic or Communistic government/country will NEVER be able to out think or out produce a free market democracy.  It is in the human genes....people will work 10 times as hard to come up with inventions or solutions if they believe they will have a vested interest (monetarily or otherwise) in the outcome.  That means new materials, faster electronics, lazar guidance systems, smarter operating personnel...cutting edge technologies.  Why do you think we are the #1 producer of Natural Gas and Oil.....you guessed it - Our Technology.  We don't have to go steal it from some other country, we create it here.  BTW the old spy trick is to actually let your adversaries steal some of your technology giving them the false sense of Superiority, all the while the 3rd. and 4th. generation advances are already being incorporated into your weapons systems.

So you see, True Believers and Useful Idiots are very important in maintaining the advantage once the real "Shit Hits The Fan".  Once they realize they made a hugh mistake it will be all over.  One last note - Believers will always default to things like "But Russia has so many Nuclear Weapons it could destroy the world".  I hate to break it to all you Believers, but Nuclear Weapons (although formatable) are so outdated.  Technological advancements can render every one launched as useless as most of these discussion.

Keep on sniffing the glue and drinking the vodka...tear your shirt open and beat on your chest....we need you just the way you are!!!!

[southernX]

You overestimate the United States and human nature.  You don't understand how the Soviet system disfigures people psychologically and culturally. 

Human nature is cowardly.  It is wise to avoid a fight rather than engage in one.  Most people leave when war comes being both wise for some and cowardly in others.  Those that do fight have my respect, but it is not what I expect out of the majority of people.

The United States that you describe stands in contrast to one that elected and re-elected a President more comfortable on the Hollywood red carpet than one on main street doing work. 

The Soviet Union . . . that speaks for itself, you are a student of history.  I am rather surprised you would make such statements given the limitations of the post-Soviet mind in this part of the world.

This statement is inconsistent logically with your previous statement.  The Ukrainians are cowardly yet those that want to fight, we shouldn't arm because they won't stand a chance anyway?  My view is that resistance is a state of mind and it should always be nurtured.  We should always nurture such resistance to those willing hands.  The more probably the victory the more numerous the hands.  Still even in the most dubious prospect of military victory, we should supply them with ample arms and training to resist and roll back the invader.  I also don't think the Russian system is very strong.  Russia is a wealthy country.  The Russians themselves are a strong and important people.  Yet a system of slavery is by definition inefficient and this particular brand of corruption lopsided.

Ukraine over 90% of Ukrainian arms is over 15 years old.  The Ukrainian diaspora has funded volunteer battalions of which there are by some estimates over 10,000.  This Soviet organized military up until August was on the path of defeating Strelkov and needed Uncle Vova's regulars.  During the phony Minsk truces, Ukraine has taken losses but they have inflicted losses against the enemy as well.  That is very incredible.

I have never seen that before.

Putin cannot say to his people that his boys are dying because the Germans, the Americans or the Poles are killing them.  Ukrainians are killing them - filling the trucks of Gruz 200.  Putin calls Ukraine a NATO legion.  None of that is true except in the sense that Ukraine is defending NATO and Ukrainians bled carrying the EU flag on the Maidan.

Let me echo the words of my old boss Senator John McCain:



We should arm and train these people now.

LT ,
nicely expressed ,
agree with your writings above

SX

[lordtiberius]

High praise from a classy guy.  Thank you Southern.
There are a lot of stories of Ukrainian draft dodging.


Here is a story about Russian conscripts dodging the war

http://m.jsonline.com/news/usandworld/national/russian-conscripts-tell-of-fears-of-being-sent-to-ukraine356ae59688c44d83acf02af55aff8291-293197311.html

By the way, guys who don't want to go to war should not be made to go.  I knew plenty of guys who didn't want to go.  After 3 tours, I was done too.  You shouldn't be on the battle line if you don't want be there.

[AkMike]

They can serve the Ukrainian cause in other ways.

[Anotherkiwi]

IMO there should be hundreds of thousands of civilian volunteers right now in Mariupol digging trenches and ditches to stop the tanks which are inevitably coming.

There may well be - certainly not hundreds of thousands, because there aren't that many people of the right age living in the city, but hopefully many.

There should be hundreds of thousands of volunteer snipers in all of the apartment buildings and other high-rise buildings.

Apart from the fact that the city's population was only 463,000 at the last census, you need to remember that Ukraine does not have the gun laws that most of the USA "enjoys."  The vast majority of people do not have guns, or access to them.

[fathertime]

There may well be - 

I think we would have seen some photographic evidence...when I view a video from the affected regions it is often accompanied with many bystanders strolling about with no obvious concern, or apparent sense of urgency, even with dead or dying people close by....just an oddity.


Fathertime!   

[calmissile]

There may well be - certainly not hundreds of thousands, because there aren't that many people of the right age living in the city, but hopefully many.

Apart from the fact that the city's population was only 463,000 at the last census, you need to remember that Ukraine does not have the gun laws that most of the USA "enjoys." The vast majority of people do not have guns, or access to them.

In my experience, that is not the case.  Everyone I know, has a gun or guns at home.  They might not be sniper rifles, but they do in fact have guns.

[AC]

You have been to Ukraine.  How many have guns?  Also would you agree that the political history of Ukraine and the US is a little different?  Perhaps your comparison was unfair?

I don't know if I would say "unfair" however I've thought about it and agree Ukraine's history is vastly different then US history.

Because they know what evil the Russians are capable of (holodomor, stalinization) Ukrainians I think are afraid to get involved and they feel hopeless that they could win without proper weapons.

The ones who have volunteered are indeed true hero's for their country as well as the many on fb getting donations for supplies and running those supplies out to the front.

[southernX]

I think we would have seen some photographic evidence...when I view a video from the affected regions it is often accompanied with many bystanders strolling about with no obvious concern, or apparent sense of urgency, even with dead or dying people close by....just an oddity.

Fathertime!

thats because you dont understand the culture old boy
people not wanting to get involved in everyhting & minding their own  business seems strange to westerners

SX

[lordtiberius]

He doesn't understand the culture.

Would you say there is a generation gap between the over 40 people and those under 40?

[lordtiberius]

I've thought about it and agree Ukraine's history is vastly different then US history.

My understanding is that the Cossacks were fairly democratic.  The Constitution that Philip Orlik was the first written Constitution in Europe preceding our Constitution by 80 years.  It provided for a division of powers. 

The Russians too had a chance for a Democratic Constitution in 1825, Tsar Alexander II (assassinated) 1905 and Kerensky's government in 1917.  The history of Western civilization would have been much different of anyone of these attempts succeeded or if any of our attempts at democracy failed.  What if Aaron Burr became President instead of Adams or Jefferson for example?

What if the Ukrainians maintained a united front against the Bolsheviks instead of killing each other after the February Revolution?

Both Ukraine and Russia have been disfigured by the Soviet experience.  And we in America have experience with Soviets in our government (BHO and the creepy socialism since W.Wilson).

 

[southernX]

He doesn't understand the culture.

Would you say there is a generation gap between the over 40 people and those under 40?

LT imo , there is nor age gap in being able to  understand the culture , you just need to read , experience and live it , then after some time , you start to get it

howver , there is an age gap imo  if you talk about the differences between those who grew up/lived under soviet rule compared to those who have not , or where very young , say under 10 when it crumbled

that difference is their quite clearly imho when you spend time with the older generation say over 40 and those under 40

SX

[mendeleyev]

when I view a video from the affected regions it is often accompanied with many bystanders strolling about with no obvious concern, or apparent sense of urgency, even with dead or dying people close by....just an oddity.

I think that I understand your feelings about this. I remember a time when one could marvel at the seeming indifference of attitudes during the Soviet period. 80 odd years had ingrained a sense of "don't get involved" and "keep looking ahead and pretend nothing is out of the ordinary." It was something of amazement to those from freer cultures. As the CCCP disintegrated, there was a lot of violence. For survival, one needed to move forward, and ignore that victim else you might be the next.

I tired of challenging my cousin Gera, now a captain in Moscow's Kremlin police district, at the abuses. I would tell him of drunks who were seen beaten by officers. Once Mrs. M and I were at an outdoor shopping mall operated by immigrants, when the police raided. I watched old men beaten and women merchants clubbed while their children cowered and screamed. Gera would shrug and say something along the lines of "eta Rossiya (its Russia)," as if that explained it all. If I pressed the issue he'd sometimes snap in exasperation that "until there is blood and broken bones, we can't even begin to question a suspect."

When a bomb goes off on a bus, or an apartment is shelled, there is anger, but life is too short, and in some cases an empty stomach is just a day away without effort, so the violence is pushed aside and like in Soviet times, one learns to put your head down and keep moving forward. It is the same basic reason why Muscovites too often pay scant attention to the lights and sirens of emergency vehicles in heavy Moscow traffic: nobody will pull over if I am dying, so why should I pull over for them?

Some years back I saw an elderly man have a heart attack near the platform of an underground Moscow Metro station. It was afternoon rush hour. Thousands of people pass through this station in the afternoon, but nobody cared. They stepped around him and patiently waited for the next train car. Who bent down to help? An American--me. Even with a painfully sprained ankle at the time, who hobbled up a transition tunnel and then upstairs to the police substation located in the entryway of most stations? An American--me. One policeman brushed me aside as he had more important paperwork to attend. A younger officer didn't seem that interested, but I made him, forced him back down that tunnel. To this day, I do not know if the old gentleman survived. It appeared that he was just one more pensioner, taking space.

Corruption, and mafia, just cannot help but be bosom buddies with violence. For decades, Russia and Ukraine have been ruled by corrupt Oligarchs and regional mafia rings. Violence can be so common that it just isn't news anymore. Thankfully, efforts at change have been attempted, and this is one reason why Ukrainians don't want to be tied to Mama Russia's apron strings. But it is a culture that will take years to reverse.

I do not write this to excuse the violence, nor the causes, or even the lack of response that you have observed. But, having lived in the region--I have reluctantly come to understand. That understanding is disheartening.

[lordtiberius]

Agree with SX & Mendy.

The Soviet Union killed civil society as it competed with totalitarian view of life.

[fathertime]

I think that I understand your feelings about this. I remember a time when one could marvel at the seeming indifference of attitudes during the Soviet period. 80 odd years had ingrained a sense of "don't get involved" and "keep looking ahead and pretend nothing is out of the ordinary." It was something of amazement to those from freer cultures. As the CCCP disintegrated, there was a lot of violence. For survival, one needed to move forward, and ignore that victim else you might be the next.
 

Thanks for the explanation and story. 


Fathertime!   

[AC]

Mende,
I love reading your stuff however I wish you would quote a person in such a way so that I could see who you are quoting.  Thanks.

[calmissile]

Mendy,

In my trips to Ukraine I noticed the same characteristic of people looking straight ahead and ignoring people in general.  I noticed that some people keep their heads straight ahead but move only their eyes to make glances of those around them.  It was somewhat amusing to watch people try to avoid being detected watching anything not straight ahead.

I also noticed that this characteristic is mostly present in folks of the older generations.  The young people up to about 30 years old do not seem to practice this characteristic as much.  I also notice that nearly everyone looks away from police as they pass by.  As it was explained to me, if you make eye contact with police it is like you are giving them an excuse to question you.

[The Natural]

In my trips to Ukraine I noticed the same characteristic of people looking straight ahead and ignoring people in general.  I noticed that some people keep their heads straight ahead but move only their eyes to make glances of those around them.  It was somewhat amusing to watch people try to avoid being detected watching anything not straight ahead.

Yes. I noticed the same when I walked the streets of New York in 1996. Not even as much as a nod from passers-by 

[lordtiberius]

NYC is a friendly city.

[calmissile]

Yes. I noticed the same when I walked the streets of New York in 1996. Not even as much as a nod from passers-by 

Your probably right about New York.  I have never been there and have no desire to.  Might be a characteristic of more the East Coast.
I have also been told the same thing about New Yorkers, but suspect the reasons for this behavior is different from those in the former USSR.

[Muzh]

Thanks for the explanation and story. 


Fathertime!

I guess you learn something new about that part of the world everyday Mendy posts to you.

[Muzh]

Your probably right about New York. I have never been there and have no desire to.  Might be a characteristic of more the East Coast.
I have also been told the same thing about New Yorkers, but suspect the reasons for this behavior is different from those in the former USSR.

Well, you should so you can dispel all those misconceptions. 

[The Natural]

Your probably right about New York.  I have never been there and have no desire to.  Might be a characteristic of more the East Coast.
I have also been told the same thing about New Yorkers, but suspect the reasons for this behavior is different from those in the former USSR.

Well Cal, this was kinda joke.
Me and a Norwegian guy who is married to an American and worked at the Place I had my internship in New Jersey, went by Train to New York.

As we walked Times Square I jokingly said to him how I noticed nobody was Meeting Our eyes or nodding at us. He looked at me With a questionmark in his eyes (Im from the North, relaxed and joking, he's from Oslo, more serious). "You expect all these People walking the NY streets greeting you"? he said and we had a good laugh.

But on a more serious note as to this post. People in large Places generally do not care. It's not a Russian thing. Recently I've seen Things set up, on TV, where you'd really think most People would interact, but don't. Maybe 10% act . I'm very sure they have made TV shows about this in most countries.

Seems most People don't want to get involved. Maybe the bigger their Places of living are, the less they care. I live in a tiny village of 300 People. Here, we care. If we see something, if we don't get physically involved (I do) we care enough to at least make phone Calls. I don't believe it comes Down to individual qualities though, just a matter of where you live and what you're used to do in certain situations.

[Anotherkiwi]

In my experience, that is not the case.  Everyone I know, has a gun or guns at home.  They might not be sniper rifles, but they do in fact have guns.

Interesting - the opposite of my experience, but then I only spent a couple of weeks there and wasn't expecting people to produce guns as a conversation piece. 

[calmissile]

Interesting - the opposite of my experience, but then I only spent a couple of weeks there and wasn't expecting people to produce guns as a conversation piece. 

To be honest, I would not have known if it were just casual relationships.  However when networking through close friends in Ukraine, I found when visiting ordinary folks, once your introduced and trust seems to be established, the guns come out for discussion and examination.  Probably a manly thing, like in the USA.   

I am not sure I remember the exact translation, but when I asked about my wife's guns she told me that when at the University they were trained in shooting guns.  She claims to have achieved 'Marksman" but I don't think I want to find out.   

Sounded like it might have been something like ROTC, but not sure.  It was about 20 years ago that she was in school.

The most important Russian expression I learned early was  "Yes Dear".