What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[AkMike]

Another vatnik trying for his 15 minutes of fame! 

[JayH]

Six Ways the US Can Defeat Putin and Bolster Ukraine

1) Increased economic sanctions against Russia:
2) A more robust NATO posture in Central and Eastern Europe
3) Expanded Military Assistance to Ukraine:
4) Reinforced Public Diplomacy/Information Warfare:
5) Ukraine’s Economic Integration into the West:
6) Supporting Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Integration:


http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/six-ways-the-us-can-defeat-putin-and-bolster-ukraine

[BC]

Six Ways the US Can Defeat Putin and Bolster Ukraine

1) Increased economic sanctions against Russia:
2) A more robust NATO posture in Central and Eastern Europe
3) Expanded Military Assistance to Ukraine:
4) Reinforced Public Diplomacy/Information Warfare:
5) Ukraine’s Economic Integration into the West:
6) Supporting Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Integration:


http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/six-ways-the-us-can-defeat-putin-and-bolster-ukraine

1) Increased economic sanctions against Russia:
Blockade RU?  yeah try.

2) A more robust NATO posture in Central and Eastern Europe
NATO consists of more than just the US.  There are limits.

3) Expanded Military Assistance to Ukraine:
And give guns to whom?..  This is exactly the reason the US and other countries are not giving UA offensive weapons.. aside from getting paid for them.

4) Reinforced Public Diplomacy/Information Warfare:
ok...  that's a bit vague.

5) Ukraine’s Economic Integration into the West:
No one wants to set an economic foundation or guarantees for the UA economy.  The risks are simply too high.

6) Supporting Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Integration:
another vague concept.

[Gator]

Ukraine is an European issue, and Europe should take the lead.   And it seems Europe will not do more.   


Also, any escalation in  Ukraine such as providing arms will be outdone by Russia. 

[jone]

Ukraine is an European issue, and Europe should take the lead.   And it seems Europe will not do more.   


Also, any escalation in  Ukraine such as providing arms will be outdone by Russia.

Gator,

I'm not sure of that any more.  I think Russia has provided it's mercenaries with as much weaponry that Russia feels comfortable with.  I don't think an all-out invasion is on the table any more, either.  So arming Ukraine - or stationing NATO forces within Ukraine would be met with a lot of saber rattling, but I doubt that Russia would be 'all in' in such a scenario. 

Russia has succeeded in selling the 'Big Lie' to much of its populace.  But the rest of the world is now at a point where nothing Russia says is believable.  That makes everything Ukraine says have a twisted logic sense of believability.    I see some foreign service moves on the part of Europe and the US in the next year that will crank up the ability of Ukraine to stave off Russia's heavy handed interference.

[mendeleyev]

Jone, I hope that you are correct. The large Russian bases that have been constructed recently along the border with Ukraine make me nervous.

The good news is that Russia is bleeding financially, and the opposition appears to be slowly emerging from a two-year hibernation. That in turn has made Putin very nervous. The placement by the security organs of Sergei Ivanov into a prominent role as the informal, but very obvious, #2 position in the Kremlin also makes Putin nervous. The two have a long history, but Ivanov is there in spite of Putin's wishes, not with his permission. In that regard, hopefully adventurism will be limited for awhile.

[Gator]

Gator,

I'm not sure of that any more........ 

The lame duck Obama will not do more because Asia, not Russia nor the Middle East, is his top priority.  In this rare instance, I agree with Obama.  Who knows, in the long term Russia and the US may be on the same side with regard to China.  Meanwhile, let free trade keep everyone so interconnected that hostilities are ill advised. 

[jone]

One of the great speculations, early on, in the crisis, was that Russia was trying to destabilize Ukraine and push it towards anarchy.  Then, with the military presence already in place, Russia could waltz in and pick up the pieces. 

Well, that hasn't happened.  There may be a lot of continued disatisfaction with the current government, but the organs of government are operating and there are fewer pro-Russian dissenters these days.    In essence, Russia has failed at creating anarchy.  Two years after the annexation of Crimea and the rest of Ukraine is far better off than those sad sacks who live in Krim.  No bridge.  No tourism.  And for a great percentage of people, no electricity.  In Eastern Ukraine, the occupied areas have no economy and no subsidiaries from Russia.  The only way to keep the interest up is to lob shells at the UA Army and claim that the Donbass is being attacked.   

Ultimately, the siutation becomes a longterm stalemate.  But with every passing day, more tanks are being produced in Ukraine.  The police and armed forces are becoming more unified.  And the people are more resolved to withstand the advances from the bully next door.

I'd like to say that Ukraine has created a better government.  But, to date, that hasn't happened.  The framework is there, but there is no roof or siding on the construction.  We'll see.

[GuppyCaptain]

I'll say this, there's a strong sense and display of Ukrainian nationalism here in Kharkiv much the same as it was in October. Fwiw...

[Gator]

Jone,

My sympathies rest with Ukraine.  If they can deal with corruption, Europe may ante up more aid.  If not, why should the West bother when corruption persists even after emerging from a revolution, stalemating the Russian proxies, starting government initiatives?  And what is the security threat to the US vs. other conflicts?  And what happened to the past aid and loans given by the West to Ukraine?

I am like Mendy and hope Ukraine's independence can survive.  The mere fact they haven't collapsed gives hope.

[JayH]

Jone, I hope that you are correct. The large Russian bases that have been constructed recently along the border with Ukraine make me nervous.

No guarantee yet that Putin will not use those troops-- very large recent troop and tank movements into Ukraine  plus along the border itself.Putin is a loose cannon-nothing can be ruled out yet.
What is certain- Ukrainian troops are far better organised and at least now have basic equipment-- and the benefit of a major effort of sophisticated training from the western nations. Morale is good-- in great contrast to the Russian invaders who find themselves in Ukraine  unwillingly.In some cases regular Russian troops have mutinied.
The one( well-several actually!!) think needed by Ukrainian military is some of the clever weapons( defensive weapons!!) that  exist in the west-that would guarantee they could get rid of the Russians in the east

The good news is that Russia is bleeding financially, and the opposition appears to be slowly emerging from a two-year hibernation. That in turn has made Putin very nervous. The placement by the security organs of Sergei Ivanov into a prominent role as the informal, but very obvious, #2 position in the Kremlin also makes Putin nervous. The two have a long history, but Ivanov is there in spite of Putin's wishes, not with his permission. In that regard, hopefully adventurism will be limited for awhile.

The title of the the thread tells a story-- the sanctions equal an economic war that Obama chose to apply pressure on Russia. They were never going to be a quick solution and about 2 years was always thought to be when they would really start to bite.Putin has been doing his best to get rid of any serious opposition at higher levels-- and crush lower level dissent.
There is no doubt that the Russian internal issue is approaching that knife-edge .

[JayH]

Jone,

My sympathies rest with Ukraine.  If they can deal with corruption, Europe may ante up more aid.  If not, why should the West bother when corruption persists even after emerging from a revolution, stalemating the Russian proxies, starting government initiatives?  And what is the security threat to the US vs. other conflicts?  And what happened to the past aid and loans given by the West to Ukraine?

I am like Mendy and hope Ukraine's independence can survive.  The mere fact they haven't collapsed gives hope.

Past aid? Down the Yanukovytch & Co plughole.
Ukraine is the frontline of putting Russia in it's place- the west should be doing everything possible to help them remove Russia from Ukrainian sovereign territory.
As Jone said above-- and you mention also- Ukraine have a massive fight to end corruption. I do not see the current crisis in Kyiv  as a bad thing--it is a point that had to be reached at some stage  ie-- when new values need to remove the old corruption from the system.

Not wishing to sound like I am trying to sugarcoat my optimism too much-but- this is a typical battle taking place in Ukraine now. The very fact that it is being discussed,written-exposed if you like-is a measure of  some progress being made.

As is being said in many places-- the new broom MUST win these battles-the government MUST put in place the legislative practices to support the new directions.
Small minded self interest MUST be overcome.
Scattered throughout the 'system" in Ukraine are good people-- good people that can see how it can be done. They need as much support as is possible -in every way.(eg writing,talking etc!)

The short answer--recognising you have a problem is the first step. When people are free to speak out-- and write how they see it  plus journalists able to write about it-that is a basis of a democratic process.
It will not take long for the larger population to get hold of all this now-- and without an overiding dominating  force intervening-that will be the basis of  a real democracy being enabled.
We all need to remember that Ukraine is coming from a long way back on many basic issues and it will take time to get the balance "right". There are a lot of people in the system that understand what is needed-- and  they are badly needed in the battle to overcome the past values-or should I say-lack of values-morality if you like.
The current crisis being enacted in Kyiv  is a major intersection in that  road.

I have posted many links here on forum( & tried to post many more!)  that details the struggle Ukraine is facing now.I am of the opinion that winning the internal struggle( ie to achieve a fully functioning democracy  with  decent laws and enforcement)  will enable Ukraine to win over it's  external invader.
The link below is an illustration of the frustration of Ukrainians in trying to move forward.

Corruption threatens state gas producer
My team and I have made UkrGasVydobuvannya into the model of reforms, a case of best management practices being swiftly implemented in a legacy Soviet-era organization where inefficiency is multiplied by corruption.
As an ex-McKinsey & Company consultant with almost eight years of experience of transforming private and public institutions and with a master's degree in public policy from Harvard Kennedy School, I am leading the complete transformation of the state gas producer into a modern, efficient company. We are also cleaning up the corruption ingrained in the company's people, processes and culture.
I have good and bad news about the reforms in Ukraine, based on my experience so far.
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/prokhorenko-corruption-threatens-state-gas-producer-410226.html

[Anotherkiwi]

The link below is an illustration of the frustration of Ukrainians in trying to move forward.

Corruption threatens state gas producer
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/prokhorenko-corruption-threatens-state-gas-producer-410226.html

Enlightening, encouraging, and full of hope - and depressingly similar to so many stories of corruption so entrenched that even the offices (and officers) charged with reform are still thumbing their noses at their masters (the people of Ukraine) while they continue to stuff themselves with their ill-gotten gains.

[JayH]

Back to the future!

WEST MUST AGAIN SHIFT  FROM CONTAINING RUSSIA'S LEADERS TO DEFEATING THEM

Just as was the case at the beginning of the 1980s, the United States must shift from a policy of containing Moscow, which the Kremlin viewed then and views now as a sign of weakness, to one designed to bring victory over it, according to St. Antony’s College historian Vladimir Pastukhov.

In a comment to VOA’s Russian Service, he argues that neither Russia nor the US currently has a clear understanding of its strategic goals in the rapidly changing world of today and that both have fallen back on approaches from the Cold War that ultimately proved to be failures.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/13/west-must-again-shift-from-containing-russias-leaders-to-defeating-them-pastukhov-says/

[JayH]

Since this thread started  it has become clearer what Russia is doing -- and is in fact conducting a "war".
The potential for this news to have a direct affect on even forum members here is real enough.

Russian parliament backs investigation into U.S. media

The Russian lower house of parliament, the State Duma, has approved a proposal to launch an investigation into U.S. media organizations that operate in Russia, it said in a statement posted on its web site late on Friday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-press-idUSKBN16P0CA

[JayH]

The premise of this article is most probably correct on many points. Helping Trump win was a by product of the intent .
It is important in assessing all of this to understand it was a moving stage -- and aims would have changed with perceived opportunity.
Of note -- that does not explain how the circumstances of opportunity did not change for the Russians as they sought to exploit the Trump connections---   and in due course that will become the significant investigation.
QUOTE
"If we already know the answers to the first two key questions, the RussiaGate hearings should close down. Its front-burner issue – Russian-Trump coordination -- is peripheral and even silly: What would Russian cyber warriors need from the Trump amateurs? "

Hackers In Epaulets: A Challenge To The Consensus on Russian Interference in the 2016 Election?

To connect the dots on Russia’s role in the 2016 presidential election (RussiaGate), we must begin with the understanding that Russia is a criminal enterprise disguised as a state. Sitting at the top of the “power vertical,” Putin has accumulated vast personal wealth and power; political murders remain unresolved; and territories are run by criminal clans. Duty-bound KGB officers have been replaced by shadowy figures who deal in compromising material, often for personal financial gain, and shuttle between private and state activities. Russia’s vaunted cyber warfare is carried out by independent-contractor operator/criminals who often wear the uniform of the Federal Security Service (FSB), foreign intelligence (SVR), or defense ministry (GRU). A new term has entered the vocabulary: hackers in epaulets.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2017/03/27/hackers-in-epaulets-a-challenge-to-the-consensus-on-russian-interference-in-the-2016-election/2/#370945071c2f