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Author Topic: Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?  (Read 440169 times)

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Offline Trenchcoat

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So now we have Trench and BillyB as proponents of a risible 'mortality rate'..

These are the guys who suggested face masks are useful for the general public  :rolleyes:

LOL, you make me laugh Mobers.

You must have missed reading today's report from Iran & Italy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51783242

I think that we can roughly guess the amount that are still fighting it and extrapolate, even at cautious estimates we are talking probably somewhere around 20 percent, from the figures we are getting back of deaths just in one day to me it is sounding a lot more!

We're probably 1-2 weeks behind Italy so in a week or two's time this will likely be the situation in the UK. Today in the UK cases passed 200 altogether, up at least 48 today, the most so far, so it is increasing.

I do indeed suggest that face masks for the general public are useful. If I was in a vulnerable category, other than being a man where it seems there is a higher mortality rate I would wear a full gas mask, might even consider going the whole Hazmat suit route. Anyway that cuts down the risk is useful but I won't be the one wearing a bra cup as I've already bought meself a nice rubber respirator mask that apparently cuts down the risk around 100 times than not wearing one, I have got a cheap pair of plastic Goggles also and will be careful not to touch my face too much once this thing goes viral here :)
"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

Offline msmob

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LOL, you make me laugh Mobers.

You must have missed reading today's report from Iran & Italy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51783242

I think that we can roughly guess the amount that are still fighting it and extrapolate, even at cautious estimates we are talking probably somewhere around 20 percent, from the figures we are getting back of deaths just in one day to me it is sounding a lot more!

We're probably 1-2 weeks behind Italy so in a week or two's time this will likely be the situation in the UK. Today in the UK cases passed 200 altogether, up at least 48 today, the most so far, so it is increasing.

I do indeed suggest that face masks for the general public are useful. If I was in a vulnerable category, other than being a man where it seems there is a higher mortality rate I would wear a full gas mask, might even consider going the whole Hazmat suit route. Anyway that cuts down the risk is useful but I won't be the one wearing a bra cup as I've already bought meself a nice rubber respirator mask that apparently cuts down the risk around 100 times than not wearing one, I have got a cheap pair of plastic Goggles also and will be careful not to touch my face too much once this thing goes viral here :)

What can say, in the face of a STUPID response like this ?

1/ Where you so 'hot' at arithmetic at school?

2/  Trench, please tell us what you're going to do when the Carbon Dioxide levels in your respirator become too high ... Will you go to a 'clean room' to change ?  ...



Offline BillyB

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You're right Billy, good work! That's a shockingly high mortality rate when you think about it, just over a quarter of all those that have fought the virus to the conclusion have died. I reckon the news services must have been told to avoid giving out the actual figures or at least were just misled themselves with the figures twisted with those still fighting the illness.


I'm not sure the media is told what to do but I think this time the governments and health organizations are manipulating the media. The way WHO presented data recently, the media automatically translated that to be 3.4% death rate when that is not true. Also governments and health organizations say there are many undetected cases out there so the death rate should be lower but they aren't telling us there are undetected death cases out there which deaths are incorrectly recorded as pneumonia or influenza which would make death rates go up. The best thing to do is go with the numbers we know.

Below are all 1st world nations with good health care systems, with a minimum of 150 infections reporting I trust. Numbers based off John Hopkins link below.

Country       Total Infections        Deaths        Total Recovered

South Korea         7041                       44                    135
Italy                    4636                      197                   532
Germany               686                         0                     17
France                   653                         9                     12
Japan                    420                          6                     46
Spain                     401                         5                     2
USA                       340                        14                    8
Switzerland            214                         1                      3
UK                         164                         2                     8

Total                    14,555                     278                  763

As you can see from this pool of 14,555 people, 1041 finished their fight and 278 died for a mortality rate of 26.7%. Imagine yourself as one of those 13K+ infected and life and death started to sink in. You won't be looking at the reported mortality rates. You will be looked at the death and recovery categories. For every three people who goes into the recovery category, one person goes into the death category. I don't know if those numbers will hold but those numbers are we are dealing with right now after throwing out the Chinese numbers which account for 80% of the weight when factoring mortality rates.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline GQBlues

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Country       Total Infections        Deaths        Total Recovered

South Korea         7041                       44                    135
Italy                    4636                      197                   532
Germany               686                         0                     17
France                   653                         9                     12
Japan                    420                          6                     46
Spain                     401                         5                     2
USA                       340                        14                    8
Switzerland            214                         1                      3
UK                         164                         2                     8

Total                    14,555                     278                  763

As you can see from this pool of 14,555 people, 1041 finished their fight and 278 died for a mortality rate of 26.7%. 

Would you like to try that again? The calculation is based on total infected, not retracted from a subset of the whole.

I still feel that if you, or anyone, feels you should exercise what makes you comfortable in handling any given situation, it should not be a cause for someone to criticize or demean you. Especially during times of many uncertainties surrounding a given situation. I would be resigned to believe there's something even more seriously wrong with that particular person than you.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 09:57:49 AM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online Faux Pas

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'Busted' by a 'gentleman' who simply refused to engage in a reasoned discourse as to any flaw - other than some bizarre reason to shout 'LIAR' based on .... his 'feeliz'...?

Ri-ight ..



So  let's get this right, you want me to provide refuting evidence to a completely baseless claim you made? You are some kind of special stupid. You made the claim moron. The onus is on you to provide the supporting evidence. Rather than your covert calls to the Chinese secret police or Boe's clients, can you google anything that supports the corona virus and it's global spread is because Wong Fu went home for the holidays?

 :ROFL:


Offline msmob

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Those with serious issues with manipulation of stats should indeed have sympathy ..

In the meantime,  Brits travelling to Moscow may be asked to self-isolate - or be forced to ...


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-51781573

"Going to Moscow? You may need to self-isolate
If you're planning a trip to Russia - or more specifically, the country's capital - you should probably be aware of this, from our political correspondent Jonathan Blake:

The UK government is warning people travelling to Moscow that they may be asked to self-isolate for 14 days on arrival, due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Updated travel advice says there are reports in Russia, citing official sources, that the UK will be added to a list of countries which already includes China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France, Germany and Spain - for which special measures apply.

The advice also states that passengers may be asked to sign a document agreeing to self-isolate. It says that in "a small number of cases" foreign visitors have been placed in enforced quarantine if they do not comply."


My little island of Cyprus has had demonstrations as some of the UN designated crossing points were closed ..


Offline msmob

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So  let's get this right, you want me to provide refuting evidence to a completely baseless claim you made? You are some kind of special stupid. You made the claim moron. The onus is on you to provide the supporting evidence. Rather than your covert calls to the Chinese secret police or Boe's clients, can you google anything that supports the corona virus and it's global spread is because Wong Fu went home for the holidays?

 :ROFL:


Let's get it EXACTLY right ..

1/ you hadn't a clue about Chinese workers going off early for New Year

2/ You haven't provided ANY valid riposte re the validity of my sources: CDC, NHS WHO ...




Offline Boethius

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The CBC's man on the street and your several clients can speak for an entire Chinese province's New Year travel plans? :rolleyes:  Oh please excuse my speaking out of turn. I'll leave you to your valued sources.

Look at how many travelled by the time of the quarantine. Five million people had left Wuhan to travel for the Lunar Year before China imposed a quarantine on the city. That's almost half the city's population.  People in the West don't really understand how "big" a deal the Lunar Year holiday is. 

You're right Billy, good work! That's a shockingly high mortality rate when you think about it, just over a quarter of all those that have fought the virus to the conclusion have died.

It's only shocking in its inaccuracy.  The highest mortality rate cited was by the director general of the World Health Organization (3.4%), but that figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases.  The problem is, many people exhibit mild symptoms, and may not seek medical treatment.  Here's more information on fatality rates -

http://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-07/why-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-keeps-changing


http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30185-9/fulltext#tbl1


I suspect the true mortality rate will not be able to be determined until the virus has run its course. 

Google was used to find the above links.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Online krimster2

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“to feel confident, people have to believe the president is telling the truth and has their interests in mind”

Trump on keeping cruise passengers offshore: “I don’t need to have my virus numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault” http://cnn.com

Trump is ONLY concerned about HIS numbers
why the f%ck did you people vote for him?
you just dug your own graves by doing so....

meanwhile if you already haven't bought gold and silver bullion coins for trading then you are SOL!!!
I have 1 oz and below gold and silver bartering bullion and coins
and bricks of 500 22LR cartridges for bartering
enough to completely live off of for at last a year
prices on these items are escalating quickly




« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 10:46:04 AM by krimster2 »

Offline BillyB

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The highest mortality rate cited was by the director general of the World Health Organization (3.4%),

Director General never said 3.4% is the mortality rate.

but that figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. 


That figure was calculated by journalists based of the Director Generals speech but the DR never said that was mortality rate. But it's good people still calculate low numbers so there is no panic.

I suspect the true mortality rate will not be able to be determined until the virus has run its course. 


100% TRUE!!! That may take years but we don't need years to begin understanding what is going on. The virus has run it's course in thousands of people already so we can predict the future and currently the mortality rate is high in reliable trustworthy 1st world nations that have good health care systems.

Would you like to try that again? The calculation is based on total infected, not retracted from a subset of the whole.


Don't need to try that again. Problem is people are taking the total infected and lumping them in the recovery category to calculate mortality which brings the rate WAY down. Here's what I wrote to someone else on another forum who is as stubborn as Moby.

Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time.

Do you understand unit of time? People have to finish their battle with the virus before time is up. Imagine going around doing mortality rates for 2020 RIGHT NOW and asking people if they lived or died in 2020. They will call you stupid because time is not up. 2020 is not finished. But you conclude your study anyway and claim 2020 mortality rates are low. Later some of the people you have claimed to survive the year 2020 will die tomorrow, next week, next month or Dec 31, 2020 and the smart guy will wait till the year(unit of time) is up before calculation mortality rates. His rate will be higher than yours. This virus rate will continue to go up because others make the same mistake as you. First it was claimed the virus is no deadlier than the flu with death rate a .1%. Then it was claimed the death rate is 2%. Now it's claimed the death rate is 3.4% It will continue to go up because people didn't know what they were doing before and they don't know what they are doing now. For this virus, you must wait till the battle with the virus is over to calculate mortality rates. So use the people that have finished their battle to help predict mortality rates based on the death or recovered categories.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline Boethius

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The WHO Director-General said:


Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. 


That sounds like a measure of death to me.


http://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop


Google was used to retrieve the previously read link above.

After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline GQBlues

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..Don't need to try that again. Problem is people are taking the total infected and lumping them in the recovery category to calculate mortality which brings the rate WAY down. Here's what I wrote to someone else on another forum who is as stubborn as Moby.

Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time.

Do you understand unit of time? People have to finish their battle with the virus before time is up. Imagine going around doing mortality rates for 2020 RIGHT NOW and asking people if they lived or died in 2020. They will call you stupid because time is not up. 2020 is not finished. But you conclude your study anyway and claim 2020 mortality rates are low. Later some of the people you have claimed to survive the year 2020 will die tomorrow, next week, next month or Dec 31, 2020 and the smart guy will wait till the year(unit of time) is up before calculation mortality rates. His rate will be higher than yours. This virus rate will continue to go up because others make the same mistake as you. First it was claimed the virus is no deadlier than the flu with death rate a .1%. Then it was claimed the death rate is 2%. Now it's claimed the death rate is 3.4% It will continue to go up because people didn't know what they were doing before and they don't know what they are doing now. For this virus, you must wait till the battle with the virus is over to calculate mortality rates. So use the people that have finished their battle to help predict mortality rates based on the death or recovered categories.

:devil: Verbosity doesn't diminish reality.

Billy, if you don't know the actual *whole* number, either a population, or a fixed number of a whole (e.g. 100,000 or 10,000 or 1,000 etc), how can you extract or equate a representative given 'rate'? Then to make this even useless, you completely ignored a given sampled whole (infected) in your citation, extracted a subset (recovered vs died), then cited a death rate.

Anyway...no need to belabor this..
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 11:11:10 AM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BillyB

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The WHO Director-General said:


Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. 


That sounds like a measure of death to me


Sounds like a measure of death to most people too but he never said it was the mortality rate. It is a rate though.  Cases include people who’d aren’t finish with their battle with the virus and those who are finished. Died are cases consists of those  who are finished with the battle. Problem is people are taking cases of those who aren’t finished with the battle and designating them into the recovery category to calculate death rate which brings the rate way down. When those people are finished with their battle many will end up in the dead category instead. Death rate willl continue to go up. Media reports was wrong before. They are still wrong
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline Boethius

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It was a mortality rate, based not on the general population, but of those who contract the virus.


This post was composed without the aid of google.



After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Online krimster2

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instead of one variable, the transmission rate of the virus...
I see 100 sub-variables, and from within each sub-variable 100 new ones...
together this multi-dimensional array, forms an interconnected network
where the "weight" of each individual variable controls some amount of the final output
which is the rate of infection for the population...

if you look at the graph of the rate of infection for China in December
and then look at the current rate in the USA you will see where their curves correlate
and just based on that, guess where we’re gonna be in 3-4 months...
but now one variable is temperature...
plot the rate of growth in infection vrs monthly temperature in wuhan
now, look at the monthly temperature in your area
when your temperature hits the December Wuhan temps and below, then you are all gonna be toast...
but until then the virus will remain in the linear phase...it grew only 20% in the last 24 hours!
but as soon as those temps are reached
it’s gonna go exponential
and that’s when you find out how hollow and worn out our society is
when every single crack in our society, from health care to gun control to banking and investment regulation
starts growing to an infinite size and breaks the foundation of civilization wide open
and the whole thing comes crashing down into ruins

and this is probably all gonna start coming true in 2 to 3 years...

how many of the geezers reading this post, will be alive 5 years from now?
hey...
I hear something...
I think it's a bell ringing far away,,,,
are you wondering why it's ringing?
not me man!
definitely not me!

 

« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 12:11:35 PM by krimster2 »

Offline GQBlues

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Sounds like a measure of death to most people too but he never said it was the mortality rate. It is a rate though.  Cases include people who’d aren’t finish with their battle with the virus and those who are finished. Died are cases consists of those  who are finished with the battle. Problem is people are taking cases of those who aren’t finished with the battle and designating them into the recovery category to calculate death rate which brings the rate way down. When those people are finished with their battle many will end up in the dead category instead. Death rate willl continue to go up. Media reports was wrong before. They are still wrong

That's really not a 'problem' per se. It's what is reality is so far.

Example: 100 people dove into the lake to try and swim across it. 'So far' 20 folks made it across, 10 drowned and died. The death rate for diving into this lake and trying to swim across is therefore (using your math) 33.33%. You don't really believe this is a true representative of a given whole, do you? There are 70 more folks trying to swim across. Wouldn't it be 'more' prudent to report a 10% death rate 'to date'?

Hell, you may well be right that by the time this is all over, 26.7% may actually be the right number. We don't know. This is why trying to report 'death rates at this stage is faulty for the simple reason it changes, and is at the present time, 'inconclusive'.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 12:20:50 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline Trenchcoat

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It was a mortality rate, based not on the general population, but of those who contract the virus.


This post was composed without the aid of google.

It's a deceptive twisting of statistics to try and publicise a different picture than to what there actually is. People should be told the actually Mortality rate of those that have been through it not given PR bullsh*t to try and be clever and dupe them. I thought we had gotten past all of that goings on in the Tony Blair era but no here we are in 2020 with people in high places telling setting out to deceive people with bare faced lies so they can get off on feeling good that they have hoodwinked others. Is it really such a difficulty for some people to just be straight with others instead of being untrustfull toads where everyone is better of not trusting or listening to a word that comes out of their mouth.
"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

Offline msmob

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Trench,

The people ARE being told... it's just those who cannot understand fall over themselves to confirm their daftness

Offline BillyB

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It was a mortality rate, based not on the general population, but of those who contract the virus.


Mortality rate can't be determined until time is up for those who are still infected. They may recover or die but until that happens, it's a mistake to include those currently infected into the recover or dead categories. I understand the twisting of numbers to give the impression that mortality rates are low so not to create panic. Since these virus threads started, I've been saying they're low and as more numbers are reported and those infected get thrown into the dead or recovered categories, you will see they aren't able to twist the numbers as much. Months ago they said death rate was .1%, then 2% and now 3.4%. It's going to keep going up.


Example: 100 people dove into the lake to try and swim across it. 'So far' 20 folks made it across, 10 drowned and died. The death rate for diving into this lake and trying to swim across is therefore (using your math) 33.33%. You don't really believe this is a true representative of a given whole, do you? There are 70 more folks trying to swim across. Wouldn't it be 'more' prudent to report a 10% death rate 'to date'?


Ideally, true mortality rate can't be calculated until ALL 100 swimmers FINISH their attempt to cross the lake. With 20 making it across and 10 drowned, that means 70 swimmers fate has yet to be determined. Although we should wait for all 100 swimmers to finish, we do have idea what the current going rate is and that is 20 swimmers survived the swim and 10 did not. It is wrong to say the current death rate is 10% because then you'd have to assume ALL 70 remaining swimmers will survive for that 10% to stand. Most likely when all swimmers are done, the mortality rate will be closer to 33.33% than 10%.

15 minutes ago my wife got a text her college is shut down and she'll have to do classes online until further update.

Italy updated their numbers. This morning the numbers were

4636  Infected      197   died    532 recovered  equals a 27% mortality rate

Todays numbers are

5883 Infected        233 died      589 recovered equals a 28.3% mortality rate

Italy's mortality rate has gone up with 36 new deaths and 57 recoveries. Italy has quarantined cities and closed schools. Parts of Italy are becoming a European Wuhan. Wish our two Italian members would report what they're experiencing.




Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline Trenchcoat

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What can say, in the face of a STUPID response like this ?

1/ Where you so 'hot' at arithmetic at school?

2/  Trench, please tell us what you're going to do when the Carbon Dioxide levels in your respirator become too high ... Will you go to a 'clean room' to change ?  ...

Mobe, my respirator mask has good filtered air inlets and a dedicated air outlet, so you don't need to worry yourself I will be fine :D

I will of course take it off when I am at home and in bed at night :)
"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

Offline Trenchcoat

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Trench,

The people ARE being told... it's just those who cannot understand fall over themselves to confirm their daftness

They are not being told directly they are being told bulls*t numbers that are just gibberish, they are being told untruths by the WHO.
"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

Offline BillyB

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They are not being told directly they are being told bulls*t numbers that are just gibberish, they are being told untruths by the WHO.

Trench, this is one case where government and WHO twisting and manipulating how they calculate mortality rate to achieve low numbers is a good thing. China did it out of pride and to save their economy. Our government and WHO are doing it to save lives by not creating panic which causes deaths and to save our economies. It's okay if a few people know the truth and act accordingly without panic. The current mortality rate is horrible and if humanity doesn't stop this virus and ALL people get it once or multiple times in our lives, we'll have a serious population reduction and our lives and behavior will be altered for as long as this virus exists.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline BillyB

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It's official. My wife's college is shut down the rest of the quarter and she will not have to do any classes online since it isn't practical for what she's studying.

Italy is taking radical steps and is locking down Lombardy, a region of over 10,000,000 people. Army mobilized to enforce lockdown. Those people are on their own now but at least it's less likely to spread to other parts of Italy or around the world. Sacrifice a few for the good of many.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/italy-plans-large-scale-lockdown-in-countrys-north-to-fight-coronavirus/ar-BB10SVjj?ocid=spartanntp

In other news American women have found a new way achieve leverage on their husbands. Making false DV claims is out. The new thing is for wives to threaten their husbands they'll call 911 and report them as having COVID-19 so they get locked up for 30 days.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Online krimster2

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billy boy,

pull out all the "stops" now, start getting ready, your area may be "shutdown" by the end of this month...
this is like an out of control fire that people are underestimating...
and then it burns everything down




Offline Trenchcoat

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What are the odds that someone will name their newborn 'Covid' this year, lol.

There's probably a council estate out there somewhere that will.
"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

 

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