Belarus - - - leaning East or West ?

[ML]

Seems I have read many stories suggesting Belarus leader and ordinary people wouldn't mind joining with Russia.

Then I saw the below headlines and partial story.  I don't have Wall Street Journal subscription to read the entire article.

Belarus in Talks to Boost U.S. Presence
Discussions mark a turn away from Russia for former Soviet state, could worsen relations between Moscow and Washington
By Thomas Grove
Jan. 14, 2019 12:45 p.m. ET
MOSCOW—Belarus said it was in talks to boost the U.S. diplomatic presence in the former Soviet republic, a move that could exacerbate tensions between Moscow and Washington.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reached out to the West after Russia renewed a push late last year to unify the two countries under an old agreement signed in 1999 that both have long disregarded. Moscow has also angered Minsk by changing its oil-tax code, which could cost Belarus hundreds of millions of dollars a year.

...

So what is the scoop ?

Belarus likely to unify with Russia . . . or not ?

[msmob]

Simples

Lukashouldgo wants to stay in power ....

[Trenchcoat]

Belarus is an interesting scene, when in Minsk in late summer last year it was their victory day celebration. Belarus kind of has a feel of the old Soviet Union I would imagine (since I did not travel there during that time) but almost in a theme park/theatre sort of way. The dress up is all of that sort of time but I never really got the feeling it was that authentic - kind of like a facade but the actual setup somewhat different. One the one hand they still have the KGB (in name at least) and Lukashenko milking cows wtc, on the other they have KFC and Hugo Boss along the high street (though I don't get the impression many shop in Hugo Boss but more Belurus own style of clothing outlets, pretty everyday stuff in there).

There was also the traditional tourist district of newly built old rustic style architecture shops being created especially for tourists it so appeared.

To me its looks like Bekarus was in the middle of turning from east to west in order to save themselves from a an impeding worse fate. I think its a case of there being little other option than to do so, Lukashenko will know with the example of Ukraine what upsetting Moscow too much can entail so he's back must really be up against the wall. No sign of trouble on the stree openly of course the KGB see to that. The girl I met allured to possible action in the Spring this year if things don't change soon though I think at the moment that would be wishful thinking. Unless things take a sudden uproar from underground dissent en-mass I think Lukashenko will cling onto power the place looked pretty orderly and civil.

[Hammer2722]

Simples

Lukashouldgo wants to stay in power ....

Yep, He knows that soon after both countries merge, he will probably be arrested for corruption or other similar charge....

[Jamesukjames]

There are a lot of eec funded projects in Belarus and Russia  is a trading partner so sitting on the fence is a good analogy