Economic war

[BillyB]

Obama says Russia's economy in tatters and America is responsible for that. Here are a few quotes from Obama's State of the Union speech.


"We're upholding the principle that bigger nations can't bully the small  --  by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine's democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies,"


"Well, today, it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters,"


"That's how America leads  --  not with bluster, but with persistent, steady resolve."


If America's current actions is what Obama calls "strong" and if that's all he's going to do, Ukraine is lost. After today's speech I'm sure Putin is going to show Obama Ukraine will stand with Russia in the end.


http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-big-nations-cant-bully-small-obama-tells-042435264.html

[lordtiberius]

What you write is true and our President can do what he wants, but the American people see the optics of this war as his failure and rightly so.  He can't afford to let Ukraine fail despite what deals he made with Putin through Kissinger.

[AC]

What you write is true and our President can do what he wants, but the American people see the optics of this war as his failure and rightly so.  He can't afford to let Ukraine fail despite what deals he made with Putin through Kissinger.

Unfortunately most Americans care more about the Kardashians then they do a war in Europe.  In fact most probably would have a hard time finding Ukraine on a map.

Of course we all hope that Obama's plan of sanctions and diplomacy only will work, but history shows otherwise.

[AC]

If America's current actions is what Obama calls "strong" and if that's all he's going to do, Ukraine is lost. After today's speech I'm sure Putin is going to show Obama Ukraine will stand with Russia in the end.

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-big-nations-cant-bully-small-obama-tells-042435264.html

I suspect Putin was watching that speech more intently then myself or most Americans.  I will be very surprised if nearly a thousand Russian tanks or more don't roll into Ukraine come spring.  The sanctions don't seem to be stopping his war intentions as he now has the Donetsk airport in his control.  Perhaps after they expand a perimeter around it they will use it for incoming war material, just like the did the airstrips in Crimea. 

[JayH]

I suspect Putin was watching that speech more intently then myself or most Americans.  I will be very surprised if nearly a thousand Russian tanks or more don't roll into Ukraine come spring.  The sanctions don't seem to be stopping his war intentions as he now has the Donetsk airport in his control.  Perhaps after they expand a perimeter around it they will use it for incoming war material, just like the did the airstrips in Crimea.

The airport is more political than military objective. Airport would have the same problems for Russians to use as Ukrainians had ie too easy to shoot aircraft down with opposing forces in close proximity. Of course-- that will be next Russian objective  --to push Ukrainians back further.
After announcing they held the airport about 20 times in Russian media--they can now show it was not a lie !!!
As long as Russians can do it-they will keep advancing.

[BillyB]

The sanctions don't seem to be stopping his war intentions as he now has the Donetsk airport in his control. 
 

After Russia takes the airport and could be in hot water for using chemical weapons, the West is actually thrilled that Russia and the rebels are willing to talk again and the West is happy to announce progress! Translation: Russia is buying time for their next move and trying to get people's minds off the use of chemical weapons.


http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-talks-reach-agreement-demarcation-line-steinmeier-says-002642396--business.html

I will be very surprised if nearly a thousand Russian tanks or more don't roll into Ukraine come spring. 
 

More and more experts are coming out and saying there is a real possibility Russia will challenge NATO and take over the Baltics.


http://news.yahoo.com/us-deploy-troops-baltics-brzezinski-210141141.html


While Russia is enjoying their land grab, China is making land grabs too after seeing the weak response to Russia's pursuit of interests. Reagan would've sent a carrier group to push the Chinese back but Obama is asking for restraint. Think the Chinese will listen?


http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-says-china-expanding-south-china-sea-reclamation-102124474.html

[lordtiberius]

When I am right, I am right and when I am wrong, I am wrong.

Billy B is right.  Donetsk Airport in Russian hands.  Sorry Billy.

[JayH]

No--he was incorrect .That was a week ago and at that time-incorrect. He is guilty of believing Russian reports that were deliberately false and designed to mislead.

[lordtiberius]

Seeing as how Billy B is wrong on everything, I wonder if he has an opinion if we are already in WW3.  I know your opinion.  The West is great and Ukraine is making all the right moves.  There sure is a lot of dead men, chic's and kids on the both sides . . .

And Motorola lives!

[AkMike]

It doesn't sound so rosy on the home front eh Doll
Trying to Stay Calm in a Russian Supermarket
By Michele A. Berdy
Jan. 22 2015 17:57


While I was swanning through the produce section of a supermarket the other day, humming a little food tune as I contemplated dinner, a price tag suddenly stopped me dead in my tracks. Cauliflower was selling for 760 rubles a kilogram. I've been watching prices double in recent weeks, but cauliflower?! Plain old, grown-everywhere, easy-to-store cauliflower?! 760 rubles a kilogram! Boy, are we in trouble.

The first thing I did was race home to brush up my ability to describe outrageously skyrocketing prices.

Let's start with how to ask about a price. There's the simple сколько стоит (how much), or почём, по какой цене (how much, often used for things that have a unit cost).

Replies come with several different verbs. Платье стоит 12,000 рублей. (The dress costs 12,000 rubles.) Машина вам обойдётся в 2 миллиона рублей. (The car will run you 2 million rubles.) Ремонт встанет тебе больше 10,000 рублей. (The repairs will cost you more than 10,000 rubles.) Sometimes people use a phrase with an exact English equivalent: Эта квартира легко уйдёт за миллион баксов. (That apartment will easily go for a million bucks.)

Then you need a nice selection of adjectives to appropriately describe the price (цена). Высокая (high) just doesn't cut it. Я была на рынке, и цены … (I was at the market and the prices were …): адские (hellish), аховые (yikes!), астрономические (astronomical) or бешеные (insane, literally "rabid").

When I'm sputtering over a price I like to use the word баснословный (fabulous), from the word басня (fable or legend). The idea is the prices are the stuff of legends, but not in a good way. Овощи теперь стоят баснословных денег. (Vegetables these days cost an arm and a leg.) Да, съездили в якобы дешёвый магазин. А там всё баснословно дорого. (Yes, we went to the so-called cheap store. Even there everything was jaw-droppingly expensive).

In the old days — that is, a few months ago — usually people, advice, recommendations and the like were worth на вес золота (their weight in gold). Его информация ценилась на вес золота. (His information was worth its weight in gold.) But now, in the new era, anything can cost as much as a gold necklace. Охлаждённая рыба, которая лежит на льду, просто на вес золота. (Chilled fish on ice is just worth its weight in gold.)

Sometimes things are so expensive you can't even touch them. А сыр — к сырам приступу нет (As far as cheese goes — you can't even touch it. Literally, "you can't approach it.") Or you can't touch it because the high prices bite. Как вкусно! Но цены кусаются. (It's really delicious! But the prices take a real bite out of your budget.) Or they burn: В этом году цены жгутся. Первичный приём у врача — 3,500 рублей. (This year prices are off the charts. The first doctor's visit is 3,500 rubles.)

In English, very expensive things cost a pretty penny. In Russian, they cost a fine little kopek. You have a choice of verbs: влетать/влететь (to fly); вставать/встать (to rise); выходить/выйти (to come out); обходиться/обойтись (to cost) — all of which end with the phrase в копеечку (a fine kopek).

Утка обойдётся в копеечку. (The duck is going to cost you a pretty penny.) Строительство влетит в копеечку. (Construction costs are going to go through the roof.)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/trying-to-stay-calm-in-a-russian-supermarket/514773.html

[Muzh]

Russia, OPEC Jostle to Meet China Oil Demand
Glut of Crude Fuels Rivalry Between the Major Producers

The changing pattern in China’s imports is one result of Russian President Vladimir Putin turning to China as an economic lifeline as Moscow is shunned by the West over the Ukraine crisis.


That has tilted in China’s favor the relationship between two countries that for decades have jousted for influence in Asia.


For its part, Beijing wants to make sure Russia’s economy doesn’t deteriorate further as that could threaten stability on China’s borders, security scholars say. In addition, buying more of its oil from Russia helps China lessen dependence on seaborne imports from the Middle East, which it fears are susceptible to supply disruptions.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-opec-jostle-to-meet-china-oil-demand-1421987738

[lordtiberius]

Oil is up over $ 50
http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-slightly-higher-after-heavy-losses-1423131055

[fathertime]

Oil is up over $ 50
http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-slightly-higher-after-heavy-losses-1423131055

You still have a chance with our little bet if we hit a major recession...but I don't think it is going to happen...too many companies need higher oil than $30 to make a profit.


Fathertime! 

[lordtiberius]

I am not as confident as I once was.  So if you want to interpret that as cause for a victory lap, take a lap.

There is a disconnect with what is happening on Wall Street and what is going on in the rest of US economy.  Imports and Exports are up.  But the port of Long Beach which accounts for more that 50% of all West Coast freight is closed due to a never ending labor dispute.  20 cargo ships are waiting to enter and the press is not reporting this but they have locked on to the Brian Williams story.

The EU may break up as the Euro gets weaker and Greece (and the UK) may leave.  If they leave, Spain Portugal and Italy will not be far behind.  Greece (Hungary and others) are acting as Russian proxies inside the NATO alliance.

And the US has to pick a president.  I don't think Obama will let his greatest rival Hillary be anointed.  If Elizabeth Warren gets out there, depending on Pocahontas' political skills she could be riding a black pony.   Post Romney, Scott Walker is emerging as the front runner.  He has to get past the crowd of would be jacks and dukes.

We don't know how this new Saudi king will act or how many nukes Israel has pointed at Iran.  If Israel were to nuke Iran unilaterally, it will be a boon to the Sunnis.  If you want to renew the bet, spell out its terms and I will consider it.

[Boethius]

The Daily Beast on the real reason for Russia's invasion -

http://goo.gl/ZEU5R5

[Gator]

The Daily Beast on the real reason for Russia's invasion -

http://goo.gl/ZEU5R5

Makes sense.   Putin's intent never was to annex Donbass.  I have long felt the Donbass region will be a revenue sink rather than revenue source for Ukraine, especially considering the extent of reconstruction necessitated by war damage.   The only reason to support the insurgency was to destabilize Ukraine. 

The article proposes that Putin will eventually conquer a land bridge to Crimea.   OTOH, I read Putin had plans for a bridge over the Strait of Kerch.  So why invade deeper into Ukraine along the Sea of Azov? 

Putin could stop shipping from Mariupol simply by closing the Strait of Kerch.  And what navy would challenge Putin given all the missiles sitting atop Crimea with the range to cover most of the Black Sea.

It sounds as if Georgia has shot itself in the foot. 

In summary, if this article is correct, Putin will remain a continuing menace to world stability for a long time.   

[BillyB]

Makes sense.   Putin's intent never was to annex Donbass.  I have long felt the Donbass region will be a revenue sink rather than revenue source for Ukraine, especially considering the extent of reconstruction necessitated by war damage.   The only reason to support the insurgency was to destabilize Ukraine. 

Destabilization isn't a goal, it's a means to an end. Putin needs to have influence over all Ukraine by way of another puppet president.


People in the Donbass are voters. Giving them greater autonomy allows them to answer to Russia while continuing to vote in Ukraine's political elections. If Russia annexes that region, they will not be allowed to vote in Ukrainian elections. Donbass is not enough though. He needs more regions before the next presidential election in Ukraine. Kind of like a hostile takeover of a business, if Putin can't buy the company/Poroshenko, then install enough voters in there to change the leadership in order to take control.

[AC]

Destabilization isn't a goal, it's a means to an end. Putin needs to have influence over all Ukraine by way of another puppet president.


People in the Donbass are voters. Giving them greater autonomy allows them to answer to Russia while continuing to vote in Ukraine's political elections. If Russia annexes that region, they will not be allowed to vote in Ukrainian elections. Donbass is not enough though. He needs more regions before the next presidential election in Ukraine. Kind of like a hostile takeover of a business, if Putin can't buy the company/Poroshenko, then install enough voters in there to change the leadership in order to take control.

Did you read the article that Gator was referencing?  I get the feeling you did not read it.  According to the article Putin's endgame is complete control of the Black Sea.  All the more reason for the West to launch a pre-emptive strike against Sevastopol.

[lordtiberius]

No.  He didn't read the article.  But I did.

What do you think the Mad King of Moscow wants?

[BillyB]

Did you read the article that Gator was referencing?  I get the feeling you did not read it.  According to the article Putin's endgame is complete control of the Black Sea.  All the more reason for the West to launch a pre-emptive strike against Sevastopol.

Did you read my last post? Should tell you I don't agree with the author of that article and if you remember what I said last year after Putin took Crimea, he earned himself around a trillion dollars of natural resources while many of you laughed at Putin thinking he took on dead weight. Black Sea is not his endgame. Ukraine may not be his endgame.

[AC]

Did you read my last post? Should tell you I don't agree with the author of that article and if you remember what I said last year after Putin took Crimea, he earned himself around a trillion dollars of natural resources while many of you laughed at Putin thinking he took on dead weight. Black Sea is not his endgame. Ukraine may not be his endgame.

Now you are trying to give Putin more power than he really has.  Russia does not have the capacity to take on NATO.  In fact Russia really is a regional power.

[mendeleyev]

I read the article and found a lot of truth in it. Also agree with much of Billy's take.

Putin needs to take Odessa in order to assure that Ukraine is landlocked with no access to Black Sea resources. Same with Mariupol.

[BillyB]

Now you are trying to give Putin more power than he really has.  Russia does not have the capacity to take on NATO.  In fact Russia really is a regional power.

Russia will most likely support groups within NATO nations such as the Baltics to influence elections, destabilize the countries and overthrow the leadership. NATO will not come to the rescue of member nations if they change leadership through elections or civil war. You're right, Russia doesn't have the capacity to take on NATO but they can take on any NATO nation one on one except America and win the fight. Russia also has the will to fight and a population that will support their leader, NATO doesn't have the will or support. I wrote Ukraine off a long time ago. They will get real help when NATO leadership learns the threat from Russia will go past the borders of Ukraine. Poroshenko received so many promises of weapons only for the deals to go bad days later. Everybody is shying away from helping Ukraine and it's only because they don't want to piss off Russia.


The author of the article had a "eureka moment" when he learn the value of the Baltic Sea in terms of natural resources and strategic military value. All this was known before Putin went after Crimea last year. Putin is way ahead of him and if he thinks Putin doesn't want to influence all Ukraine again, he's mistaken.

[jone]

Was thinking the other night that the policy makers who came up with the Kremlin idea that borders were not fixed after 1991 obviously never read the Budapest Memorandum (or ignored it because it wasn't convenient).

[mendeleyev]

A sad trait, as you may have experienced in your business dealings Jone, is that in the Eastern worldview a contract or agreement is only legitimate as long as one believes it to be beneficial. To be fair, that concept is growing in the West, as well, but it really thrives here.

That is, in my humble opinion, also reflected in divorce statistics.