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Author Topic: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?  (Read 94586 times)

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Online Faux Pas

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #250 on: January 26, 2015, 05:40:50 PM »

 They are working on it, and getting help to do it:


http://www.international.gc.ca/international/support-ukraine-soutien.aspx?lang=eng




 
If you read that link you will see that Canada and other countries are not just giving immediate economic help to Ukraine, but they are also helping to clean up the corruption in govt, helping organize social organizations and organizing future developments for Ukraine. Note how they seized assets of Yanukovich and his regime and their families. And that they imposed sanctions against other unnamed Ukrainians as well, not just Russian companies or individuals.


 I agree it would be a stretch to believe that the new govt would be able to eliminate all the corruption in Ukraine by themselves, but there are many countries monitoring the situation with the new govt and helping them to do this. Believe it or not it might actually be happening, Canada and other countries wouldn't just be throwing money blindly at Ukraine without knowing that it wasn't just going to end up in a few govt official's pockets.

I wish Ukraine well. I really do and I hope for the best. But, the idea that someone, even Canadians can wave an ink pen and corruption in Ukraine vanishes is a fantasy. It's permeated into everything and has been a system hundreds of years in the making. It's not going to suddenly dissipate because the top crook got kicked to the curb. If there was an actual plan to end it, it will be years or tens of years before it is at an acceptable level.

Offline jone

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #251 on: January 26, 2015, 05:43:03 PM »
+1
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Offline Taz

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #252 on: January 26, 2015, 05:43:55 PM »
I wish Ukraine well. I really do and I hope for the best. But, the idea that someone, even Canadians can wave an ink pen and corruption in Ukraine vanishes is a fantasy. It's permeated into everything and has been a system hundreds of years in the making. It's not going to suddenly dissipate because the top crook got kicked to the curb. If there was an actual plan to end it, it will be years or tens of years before it is at an acceptable level.

Nobody can wave an ink pen and change the corruption but the people are trying. Poroshenko is a good leader and not corrupt. Things are progressing at a faster pace than thought possible. My wife worked with the government for some time helping weed out corruption in the financial areas and continues to do so. She sees were they are making progress and everyone realizes this may be their last chance to do so.
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Offline BillyB

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #253 on: January 26, 2015, 07:04:57 PM »
Russia cannot afford this war and the consequences-FULL STOP.



What do you mean they can't afford a war? Even when countries are devastated during WW2, there's no better time to advance new technology, and ramp up the speed of manufacturing. Governments don't have to pay for war now, they can pay later. Besides, many older Russians are used to not getting paid for their work. Putin increase the military budget by 30% this year. NATO seems to be penny pinching compared to Russia.


Russia's newest tank comes out this year. They also have a new 5th generation fighter. Every time you laugh at the ruble, Russia moves weapons and armies to new locations. 70 new aircraft are heading to Crimea.


http://www.newsweek.com/russia-adds-70-new-aircraft-military-district-around-crimea-301960
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline JayH

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #254 on: January 26, 2015, 07:25:37 PM »
Gator-  Russia cannot afford this war and the consequences-FULL STOP. However--Putin will stop paying pensions in Russia before he stops any war.

"Posted by: BillyB
« on: Today at 07:04:57 PM » Insert Quote
Quote from: JayH on Today at 03:16:33 PM
Russia cannot afford this war and the consequences-FULL STOP. "

BB--I think more appropriate if you included the full sentence to put what I said in context.
But- my point remains-- the consequences of the Russian invasion will be felt long and hard in Russia long into the future.The cost today in $ terms- he cant afford either-it will have massive detrimental affect on the Russian budget. Alreading reneging on Crimean and Transinistra promises- soon he will start cutting wages and if he continies--be unable to pay- full stop. The military is likely to get very interested in the decison making process when they stop being paid--or get pay cut! I dont think today's Russians will respond too well when not getting paid!!



What do you mean they can't afford a war? Even when countries are devastated during WW2, there's no better time to advance new technology, and ramp up the speed of manufacturing. Governments don't have to pay for war now, they can pay later. Besides, many older Russians are used to not getting paid for their work. Putin increase the military budget by 30% this year. NATO seems to be penny pinching compared to Russia.
Russia's newest tank comes out this year. They also have a new 5th generation fighter. Every time you laugh at the ruble, Russia moves weapons and armies to new locations. 70 new aircraft are heading to Crimea.

BB--Putin DOES NOT HAVE 30% to increase military spending--at some point in the next year Russia will run out of money-if he cannot run over Ukrainians soon and then attempt to negotiate a truce/peace in the attempt to hang on to his gains his own internal crisis will run him over( or over him !)


In the news today--many tanks being sent to Rostov from st Petersburg-alledgedly WW2 variety-- this war goes up a level or two and all this Russian equipment  will finish up looking like all that Iraqi hardware on the Kuwait-The Highway To Death

« Last Edit: January 26, 2015, 07:27:10 PM by JayH »
SLAVA UKRAYINI  ! HEROYAM SLAVA!!!!
Слава Украине! Слава героям слава!Слава Україні! Слава героям!
 translated as: Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!!!  is a Ukrainian greeting slogan being used now all over Ukraine to signify support for a free independent Ukraine

Offline Boethius

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #255 on: January 26, 2015, 07:32:51 PM »
I will take at least a decade, maybe two, to weed out corruption in Ukraine.  It is ingrained and endemic.  Plus, for all the lustration laws, to date, the oligarchs have not been touched. 
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline AC

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #256 on: January 26, 2015, 07:36:09 PM »
I wish Ukraine well. I really do and I hope for the best. But, the idea that someone, even Canadians can wave an ink pen and corruption in Ukraine vanishes is a fantasy. It's permeated into everything and has been a system hundreds of years in the making. It's not going to suddenly dissipate because the top crook got kicked to the curb. If there was an actual plan to end it, it will be years or tens of years before it is at an acceptable level.

I'm just an average Joe and my attitude is wait and see.  The professional investors likely feel the same way --"Let's wait and see if Ukraine really is doing something about corruption".  Meanwhile the ship is sinking.  Most of us certainly wish them well but none of us are magicians.  Not sure if David Copperfield could pull off this.

The most corrupt types in Ukraine are likely Svengali like characters who could impress the greatest skeptic that their hands are clean and the money will go where it is supposed to.  Next thing you know at least half the money disappears.

Offline onlyFSU4me

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #257 on: January 26, 2015, 07:42:56 PM »
I wish Ukraine well. I really do and I hope for the best. But, the idea that someone, even Canadians can wave an ink pen and corruption in Ukraine vanishes is a fantasy. It's permeated into everything and has been a system hundreds of years in the making. It's not going to suddenly dissipate because the top crook got kicked to the curb. If there was an actual plan to end it, it will be years or tens of years before it is at an acceptable level.


 Of course it will take time to curb the corruption, no one said it was non existent now. Jay just mentioned that steps were being taken to address it and I showed some proof that the Ukrainian govt is getting help from other countries in doing this. Which is smart on their part, because like Taz said, they are only going to have one chance to prove that they really do want to change the reputation of the Ukrainian govt.

Offline calmissile

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #258 on: January 26, 2015, 08:11:59 PM »

 Of course it will take time to curb the corruption, no one said it was non existent now. Jay just mentioned that steps were being taken to address it and I showed some proof that the Ukrainian govt is getting help from other countries in doing this. Which is smart on their part, because like Taz said, they are only going to have one chance to prove that they really do want to change the reputation of the Ukrainian govt.

+1
Doug (Calmissile)

Offline BillyB

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #259 on: January 26, 2015, 08:23:58 PM »
the consequences of the Russian invasion will be felt long and hard in Russia long into the future.The cost today in $ terms- he cant afford either-it will have massive detrimental affect on the Russian budget.



Do you think Putin is dumb? Putin factored in the good and bad and feels it's worth moving forward with his goals. The Value of Ukraine is worth more than the damage of sanctions. Putin also gets to make NATO look weak and take away a potential trading partner(Ukraine) from them. After Putin takes Ukraine under it's wings, he will set up elections to show the world Ukraine unanimously voted in another puppet President and the EU will go back to doing business with Russia. That's if Putin chooses to stop at Ukraine. Russia is far better off now than the USSR was at near defeat from the Nazis. If USSR can get stronger during a war, Russia can get stronger. Germany also became a world power quickly after getting devastated and bankrupt during WW1. They got stronger early during WW2. It doesn't make sense but history shows countries can get stronger during wars.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline LiveFromUkraine

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #260 on: January 26, 2015, 08:57:04 PM »
Yeah I was wondering how long it would take a pea brain to attempt to demonize me for disagreeing with him. Exactly 2 posts. So now I am in cahoots with the Kremlin because I point you out for the idiocy you spew. More evidence that when anyone calls you a moron they underestimated you  ;D


Welcome to the group, comrade.  ;)

Offline LiveFromUkraine

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #261 on: January 26, 2015, 08:58:19 PM »
I will take at least a decade, maybe two, to weed out corruption in Ukraine.  It is ingrained and endemic.  Plus, for all the lustration laws, to date, the oligarchs have not been touched.


I agree, it is crazy how ingrained at all levels it is.  I honestly don't know how people get anything done there.  The amount of patience needed is phenomenal.

Offline JayH

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #262 on: January 26, 2015, 09:40:13 PM »

Do you think Putin is dumb? Putin factored in the good and bad and feels it's worth moving forward with his goals. The Value of Ukraine is worth more than the damage of sanctions. Putin also gets to make NATO look weak and take away a potential trading partner(Ukraine) from them. After Putin takes Ukraine under it's wings, he will set up elections to show the world Ukraine unanimously voted in another puppet President and the EU will go back to doing business with Russia. That's if Putin chooses to stop at Ukraine. Russia is far better off now than the USSR was at near defeat from the Nazis. If USSR can get stronger during a war, Russia can get stronger. Germany also became a world power quickly after getting devastated and bankrupt during WW1. They got stronger early during WW2. It doesn't make sense but history shows countries can get stronger during wars.

I have already outlined how Ukraine can get stronger in the middle of this war.
For Russia--it is all downhill.
BB-- again-- even if Putin was able to get to the Polish border--it will only be temporary. One way or another Ukraine will push Russia out of Ukraine-- sooner or later that will happen.
The easiest way is for the west to help now-that will save millions of Ukrainian lives-- and save the west a much higher cost at some future time in putting Russia back in it;s box.
Guys keep throwing up the WW2 and USSSR-- anything positive applies equally to Ukraine who was a cornerstone of the USSR and particularly in the defence of Russia itself-- so think about that before throwing it at us repeatedly.
Last year--Putin attempted to hijack the WW2 memorial days as Russian--much to the chagrin of many Ukrainian veterans and their families--probably helped turn many into Ukrainian nationalists.
SLAVA UKRAYINI  ! HEROYAM SLAVA!!!!
Слава Украине! Слава героям слава!Слава Україні! Слава героям!
 translated as: Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!!!  is a Ukrainian greeting slogan being used now all over Ukraine to signify support for a free independent Ukraine

Online Faux Pas

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #263 on: January 26, 2015, 10:22:42 PM »

Welcome to the group, comrade.  ;)

Zdravstvuj  ;D
Welcome to bizarro world , eh? Out is in, up is down, black is white, etc.

Offline AkMike

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #264 on: January 27, 2015, 01:10:35 AM »
. My wife worked with the government for some time helping weed out corruption in the financial areas and continues to do so. She sees were they are making progress and everyone realizes this may be their last chance to do so.

 Tell your wife that we say THANK YOU for her efforts!!  :clapping:

Offline AkMike

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #265 on: January 27, 2015, 01:19:42 AM »

I agree, it is crazy how ingrained at all levels it is.  I honestly don't know how people get anything done there.  The amount of patience needed is phenomenal.

 Bear in mind that it's not just UA that's got serious problems with corruption. Russia has it just as bad and K-Stan is in the same boat from what I've seen. But they're not in the news (for this) right now like Ukraine is.

Offline Muzh

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #266 on: January 27, 2015, 08:50:24 AM »

I agree, it is crazy how ingrained at all levels it is.  I honestly don't know how people get anything done there.  The amount of patience needed is phenomenal.


Old Soviet relics are hard to kill.  ;)
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead. Thomas Paine - The American Crisis 1776-1783

Offline fathertime

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #267 on: January 28, 2015, 07:43:14 AM »
I have already outlined how Ukraine can get stronger in the middle of this war.
For Russia--it is all downhill.
BB-- again-- even if Putin was able to get to the Polish border--it will only be temporary. One way or another Ukraine will push Russia out of Ukraine-- sooner or later that will happen.
 


Please allow me to pen the ending for your fantasy....
"And the word lived happily ever after".   :rolleyes:


Fathertime!   
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline Photo Guy

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #268 on: February 03, 2015, 11:04:38 AM »
I see very few benefits for Russia's ownership of Donbas and Crimea. Before the war, Russia already had a military base in Crimea. Ownership of Donbas will be a costly area of rehabilitation for Russia. Citizens there will see their western neighbor gradually prospering while they flounder in Donbas. And like I said, the Russian annexation and invasion make the world less willing to do business with Russia. Putin seems not to care about that, but it's bad for his country. Putin is ruining Russia.

Offline Steamer

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #269 on: February 03, 2015, 11:32:01 AM »
An interesting article from Straford



 
An Escalation in Ukraine Would Add to Putin's Concerns


February 2, 2015 | 23:21 GMT

Analysis
Several developments over the weekend related to the Ukraine crisis indicated that the standoff between Russia and the West could soon reach a turning point. Fighting continued between Ukrainian security forces and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine while the latest round of peace talks in Minsk collapsed in a matter of hours. Shortly after the talks failed, the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic announced that a general mobilization of up to 100,000 fighters would occur within two weeks. Meanwhile, a report from The New York Times published on Sunday suggested that the United States is seriously considering providing the Ukrainian military with lethal weapons. The United States is characterizing this as a defensive move, but the pro-Russian rebels and Russian government are not likely to agree.


 All of these events point to an acute risk of escalation in the conflict over Ukraine. The main question is where this escalation will lead. During the crisis, which has dragged on for more than a year now, there have been several ebbs and flows, as demonstrated by numerous declarations and breaches of cease-fires that occurred while political dialogue between various representatives continued. One thing that is clear is that all options remain on the table in this evolving standoff, including the potential for a larger military conflict.


 There are two broader perspectives from which to view the crisis in Ukraine. One is that of the West, which sees the origins of the conflict in Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine — illegal and illegitimate responses to what was considered a democratic revolution in Kiev in February 2014. The West regards Russia's actions as a violation of Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and believes that the appropriate response are sanctions against Russia and the backing of a pro-Western government in Kiev. The other view is that of Russia, which sees the February 2014 uprising as an illegal coup d'etat orchestrated by the West. The annexation of Crimea and the eastern Ukrainian insurgency are viewed as legitimate reactions that had substantial support from the local population and were an appropriate response to a conflict the West started as a means of containing and weakening Russia.




What is a Geopolitical Diary? George Friedman Explains.




Russia's view of the West's intentions existed long before the uprising in Kiev. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has witnessed what it perceived as deliberate efforts at containment by the West. One was the expansion of NATO into the former Soviet bloc in the late 1990s and early 2000s; with the inclusion of the Baltic states, the Western military alliance expanded to within 161 kilometers (100 miles) of St. Petersburg. Another was the wave of "color revolutions" that swept the former Soviet space in the mid-2000s, most notably the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, which brought Western influence even closer to the Russian heartland. The 2014 uprising in Ukraine was, from Moscow's perspective, merely the latest chapter in the same story of the West's attempts to contain Russia in the former Soviet borderlands.


 This thinking has framed Russia's actions in Ukraine. If Ukraine is aligned with the West it poses an existential threat to Russia, so Moscow feels that it must do whatever is necessary to prevent this alignment. Following the Orange Revolution, Russia used several tools, including energy cutoffs and political connections in Ukraine, to undermine the pro-Western government in Kiev and eventually got a Russian ally in power in 2010. However, the current iteration of Moscow's standoff with the West has left the Russian economy isolated by Western sanctions just as it is reeling from a dramatic drop in oil prices. Meanwhile, the United States and NATO have increased their military presence and commitment to countries in Central Europe, with plans to pre-position equipment and forces in the Baltic states, Poland and Romania. Now the West is signaling its intentions to increase military assistance to Ukraine significantly.


 This leaves Russia in a difficult position. A weakening economy puts Russian President Vladimir Putin under pressure at home, and although most Russians oppose a direct, overt military intervention in Ukraine, being seen as capitulating to the West on an issue as strategic as Ukraine could have dire consequences. The issue is particularly delicate given Putin's limitations within the Kremlin as he juggles different power circles' interests.


 These circumstances lend greater importance to the intensification of fighting in key areas such as the Donetsk airport and Mariupol. These moves could be meant to demonstrate Russia's capabilities in degrading Ukraine's forces on the battlefield while steering the negotiations over Ukraine's future toward a diplomatic settlement. But the United States and Russia's neighbors cannot discount the possibility that these actions are precursors to a wider Russian military offensive. The West has increased its support to Kiev since the crisis started, and the Times report about possible U.S. weapons sales to Ukraine shows that Russia cannot assume that the West's commitment will not grow. Therefore, Putin could be calculating that if any major military action is to be launched, it would be best to do it before the West increases its presence and assistance in Ukraine and nearby states.


 This is not to say that a broader war is looming or inevitable. There are a number of possible outcomes in the range between a negotiated settlement and a full-scale military conflict over Ukraine. The conflict could continue for a long time. But the fact remains that Putin must survey his options, and continuing with the current tactics might not be one of them.
 
« Last Edit: February 03, 2015, 11:34:18 AM by Steamer »
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Offline jone

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #270 on: February 03, 2015, 01:05:29 PM »
I agree with the disconnect outlined in the article between the Western perspective and the perceived NATO threat by Russia.  But I disagree with Freidman's assessment that Putin is under significant pressure at home to do more than he is doing either for the economy or in escalating a military situation.  The one thing I do believe is that the longer the Ukrainian situation plays out, the stronger Ukraine becomes as a national entity and the harder it will be to dislodge the current government, something that seems to have been a goal at the onset of the Russian response.

While Putin did not have many cards to play, I believe he misplayed his hand from the onset.  Russia is now forced to align itself with Cuba and North Korea in order to play war games.  Quite frankly, no one else will play with him or with Russia.  Russia has lost much more than it has gained by obtaining a couple of useless acres on its border or in the Black Sea.
Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

Offline Photo Guy

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #271 on: February 03, 2015, 03:43:47 PM »
Russia could acquire some industry in Donbas, manufacturing, and coal. Certainly not worth the damage to Russia's reputation.

Offline fathertime

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #272 on: February 03, 2015, 05:59:54 PM »

 


 These circumstances lend greater importance to the intensification of fighting in key areas such as the Donetsk airport and Mariupol. These moves could be meant to demonstrate Russia's capabilities in degrading Ukraine's forces on the battlefield while steering the negotiations over Ukraine's future toward a diplomatic settlement. But the United States and Russia's neighbors cannot discount the possibility that these actions are precursors to a wider Russian military offensive. The West has increased its support to Kiev since the crisis started, and the Times report about possible U.S. weapons sales to Ukraine shows that Russia cannot assume that the West's commitment will not grow. Therefore, Putin could be calculating that if any major military action is to be launched, it would be best to do it before the West increases its presence and assistance in Ukraine and nearby states.
 


Thanks Steamer, I read the story and this is the line that stuck out to me.  According to the author *and the way I read it* is that the US is speaking to Russia through these public statements.  We may give Ukraine a few arms, to signal to Russia that greater help MAY be on the way...this is to slow down Russia's movements. The action may be exposed as a US bluff, if Putin moves forward and the US stops escalating. 


Fathertime!   
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Offline Steamer

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #273 on: February 03, 2015, 06:37:55 PM »
Russia's view of the West's intentions existed long before the uprising in Kiev. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has witnessed what it perceived as deliberate efforts at containment by the West. One was the expansion of NATO into the former Soviet bloc in the late 1990s and early 2000s; with the inclusion of the Baltic states, the Western military alliance expanded to within 161 kilometers (100 miles) of St. Petersburg. Another was the wave of "color revolutions" that swept the former Soviet space in the mid-2000s, most notably the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, which brought Western influence even closer to the Russian heartland. The 2014 uprising in Ukraine was, from Moscow's perspective, merely the latest chapter in the same story of the West's attempts to contain Russia in the former Soviet borderlands.


 This thinking has framed Russia's actions in Ukraine. If Ukraine is aligned with the West it poses an existential threat to Russia, so Moscow feels that it must do whatever is necessary to prevent this alignment.


This is the point I've been trying to make. Russia views all these moves by the US and NATO as a continuing plot to contain Russia. Losing Ukraine will be an existential threat to Russia and they are not going to let that happen. Russia is willing to fight about this and the US is just going to give this lip service (and maybe a few guns). I expect the poop to hit the fan soon and Ukraine will be the biggest loser.
Life ain't nothing but a poker game
And no two hands are quite the same
But I never saw a winner that didn't bet

Offline calmissile

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Re: Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?
« Reply #274 on: February 03, 2015, 07:18:25 PM »

This is the point I've been trying to make. Russia views all these moves by the US and NATO as a continuing plot to contain Russia. Losing Ukraine will be an existential threat to Russia and they are not going to let that happen. Russia is willing to fight about this and the US is just going to give this lip service (and maybe a few guns). I expect the poop to hit the fan soon and Ukraine will be the biggest loser.

And of course Russia needs to be contained.  Look at it's history present and past.  Are you blind?

Doug (Calmissile)

 

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