2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[Gator]

Dr. Fauci's ceremonial first pitch at the Nationals' game last night is as accurate as his COVID-19 predictions in January..

Clearly he did not want anyone to catch anything.   

I notice he was well left of center.   

[GQBlues]

He really flattened that curve, didn't he?

[BC]

http://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/24/tiny-arbutus-biopharma-wins-patent-litigation-figh.aspx

Interesting twists and turns.. as if it wasn't already complicated.

[Grumpy]

Article on some of the vaccines being tested.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/meet-the-4-frontrunners-in-the-covid-19-vaccine-race/

[BillyB]

A few good websites that track and talk about vaccines and therapies. Chinese labs seem to take the easy route in making vaccines by killing the live/active virus and injecting the dead/inactive virus into people. It's easy to make a safe vaccine with this technique but this technique isn't always successful.

http://www.bio.org/policy/human-health/vaccines-biodefense/coronavirus/pipeline-tracker

http://covid-19tracker.milkeninstitute.org/#vaccines_intro

One link said 199 vaccines are in development. Here are a few types and you can find which lab is developing which type in the second link.

DNA-Based Asian and European labs doing this

DNA-based vaccines work by inserting a genetically engineered blueprint of viral gene(s) into small DNA molecules (called plasmids) for injection into vaccinated people.Cells take in the DNA plasmids and follow their instructions to build viral proteins, which the immune system recognizes as foreign, triggering the immune response that protects against the disease.

Inactivated Virus Chinese labs doing this

This type of vaccine consists of the disease-causing virus that has been killed (with heat or chemicals), so it won’t make you sick, and can be used in people that may not be able to use a live attenuated virus vaccine (e.g., those who are immunocompromised). In general, inactivated virus vaccines do not provide as strong of an immune response as live attenuated virus vaccines, so additional doses of the vaccine may be needed to get a strong enough immune response. Still, they may be safer for some people.

Live Attenuated Virus Popular with labs in India

In contrast to inactivated virus vaccines, these vaccines, also whole viruses, are live to elicit a stronger immune response but weakened to reduce virulence. Examples include those for measles, mumps, and tuberculosis.

Non-Replicating Viral Vector  Oxford University doing this.

This approach is similar to replicating viral vector vaccines in that a viral gene is added to a different, non-replicating, virus and delivered to the vaccine recipient. No approved product of this kind has resulted to date.

Protein Subunit  various labs around the world taking this route

Rather than introducing whole viruses to an immune system, a fragment of the virus is used to trigger an immune response and stimulate immunity. Examples include the subunit vaccines against hepatitis B and shingles. Examples include the subunit vaccines against Hepatitis B and shingles.

Replicating Viral Vector various labs around the world taking this route

This involves putting a gene for a viral protein into a different virus (one that will not cause illness but can replicate). Replication of the viral vector also produces copies of the viral protein, which triggers an immune response to that protein. Examples include ebola and dengue vaccines.

RNA-Based Vaccine Pfizer and Moderna doing this. Not only has there never been a safe and effective vaccine created for any coronavirus, there has never been an RNA-Based vaccine approved for use against any virus.

Similar to DNA vaccines, these experimental vaccines provide immunity through introduction of genetic material (RNA). RNA vaccines can also be potentially developed more quickly and easily than other vaccines. No RNA vaccines have been approved for human use.

Virus-Like Particle various labs around the world taking this route

Virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines closely resemble viruses but are non-infectious because they contain no viral genetic material. Since VLPs cannot replicate, they provide a safer alternative to attenuated viruses. Examples include the HPV vaccine.

Other various labs around the world taking this route

From a gene-encoded antibody vaccine to a self-assembling vaccine and more, these are the vaccines being developed that do not fall easily into one of the other product categories or details about its category are not publicly available.

[msmob]

It is interesting to note the clear policy to make the advisor culpable, when the chap he was advising wouldn't listen..

Reading on here, it seems plenty of sheeple are falling for it..

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/25/sinclair-tv-stations-fauci-plandemic-conspiracy-theory

[msmob]

http://metro.co.uk/2020/07/27/vietnam-evacuates-80000-people-three-test-positive-coronavirus-13042258/

Tourism is a double edged sword

[BC]

Although more confidence is building that an effective vaccine is being produced, the timelines of trials, production and distribution simply cannot be compressed despite throwing a ton of money at them.  We're talking well into next year before the common folk will be able to be vaccinated.  Certainly, first responders, hospital staff and the most vulnerable will be first in line along with maybe some politicians and the very wealthy.

In the meantime, the virus will not relent and continue to maim and kill us (yes it seems many may be left with some forms of medium to long term disability).

Considering the costs that keep rising, now with another trillion-dollar-plus stimulus, many more jobs that are simply disappearing after a faltering restart of the economy, do folks that were against a full lockdown of the nation for 45 days really still believe that 'saving the economy that is not getting saved' was the best path?

Remember that much economic damage is still to come.. rent moratoriums will end with folks either paying or risk eviction, mortgage moratoriums will also end for those who could get them will run out, many won't be repaid.  Some folks are lining up for the second and maybe third time in unemployment lines.  The fed even tempted to buy stocks now to keep money flowing and markets above water to try and prevent a crash?

With politics also heating up daily on top of Fed policies and buying, money is already shifting to safe havens, not necessarily USD.  EUR is quickly rising against the dollar, already reaching 2018 levels.  Will it go to the 1.40ish levels again?  Sure, one might think this is good for the US and that exports will rise, but who is exporting to capacity nowadays with virus tampering production, and who is really buying nowadays overseas?  Folks do see Europe headed towards recovery while the US falters with many places having to put recovery into in reverse gear.

It really doesn't look good folks with several economic tipping points getting nearer every day.  Who here still sees an upside to letting this virus run riot?  I highly doubt masks alone will do the trick.  Some acclaim 'but... we are free!' I say we're already a slave to this virus.  Some say 'But we're not socialist!'.. think about how much of the business sector the USG finances and 'holds' along with dictating financial policies that affect businesses both ways. 

Oh well, rant for the day over

[Gator]

Oh well, rant for the day over

Good rant, and informed.  I agree with much of it with some exceptions as follows.

...do folks that were against a full lockdown of the nation for 45 days really still believe that 'saving the economy that is not getting saved' was the best path?

Yes, because Americans are unruly and would not have adhered to the strict policies. 

Us seniors are reminded of the Federal (Nixon) mandated 55-mph speed limit during the 1970s oil embargo - largely ignored even with the highway patrol enforcing it, and deemed unsafe.     
 

  Considering the costs that keep rising, now with another trillion-dollar-plus stimulus...

I wish it were only a trillion, the number proposed by the Repubs.   The Dems are proposing three TRILLION - got to piggyback some progressive initiatives.   

BTW, the spending is more relief than stimulus.

   

Remember that much economic damage is still to come.....EUR is quickly rising against the dollar, already reaching 2018 levels.  Will it go to the 1.40ish levels again?

There is not a large difference in inflation and interest rates between EU and US, so the primary driver of changing currency valuations is debt.  Today's valuations reflect Biden's lead in the polls and the Democrats' obvious intentions to spend. spend, spend.       

 
BC, this is not over.   A year from now we will know the answer.  Of course, no country goes unscathed, yet Europe is less hurt in the third inning.   

____________________________
P. S.  New cases in Florida are plateauing.  Hospitalizations and deaths have increased, but not to the rates experienced by New York and Italy in Spring.      Obese and elderly account for much of the severe cases.   

[fathertime]

    I highly doubt masks alone will do the trick.  Some acclaim 'but... we are free!' I say we're already a slave to this virus.  Some say 'But we're not socialist!'..
 

went to huntington beach yesterday, I'd say less than 1/25 people were wearing masks.  little to no social distancing was taking place.  in the USA the virus is going to run it's course because that is what the people are deciding...for better or worse.

Fathertime!

[GQBlues]

went to huntington beach yesterday, I'd say less than 1/25 people were wearing masks.  little to no social distancing was taking place.  in the USA the virus is going to run it's course because that is what the people are deciding...for better or worse.

Fathertime!

Lot's of panicking in SurfCity.USA - Huntington Beach.
Population 204,000 (99.5% surfs ).
COVID-19 cases 792 ( 0.08%).
Deaths 1 ( 0.00049%)

Note: No silly protesting in HB. The last time they tried to hold a blm march here, they were confronted by a counter march, had a short melee, and all the liberal/snowflake acts of stupidity stopped immediately and never came back.

Orange County Population 3,198,000
COVID-19 Cases 34,343 ( 1.07%)
Death 564 ( 0.0176%)

Republicans hold a 0.7% advantage over Democrats of all registered voters in the entire county. This is largely influenced by the high density lower income population in the city of Santa Ana, which is predominantly Hispanics.

[Gator]

BASEBALL AND COVID

Major League baseball opened play this past weekend without fans in the stadiums.  I am a moderate baseball fan,  preferring football, yet it felt good to watch some live professional sports albeit without fans.   

The season this year was shortened from 162 games to 60; however,  the playoffs were expanded.  It should have prompted some interest.  I say "should have" because the season is in jeopardy of being cancelled here at Day 4.

Why cancel?  14 of Miami's 30 players tested positive for COVID.  Miami cancelled tonight's home game, and the Philadelphia team where Miami played over the weekend has cancelled its game to decontaminate the clubhouse.
   
The positive cases will need to quarantine, and Miami must replace them with minor league players lacking the full set of competitive skills.  If other teams suffer similar outbreaks, I don't see how the season can continue. 

This sucks, especially for Dodger and Yankee fans (Boo!  Hiss!) whose teams look impressive and are loaded with talent.  Maybe some Yankees go play for Miami!!!! 

[krimster2]

base-a-ball has been very, very good to me
but nCov, has been very, very bad to many
I have a nCov joke for you!!!
I THINK YOU'LL GET IT!

ahahaha, Trump voters
all gonna drink the JonesTown kool-Aid
We will ALL Die For Trump!!!!

yes...
yes you will....

[BC]

Yes, because Americans are unruly and would not have adhered to the strict policies. 

'Unruly'.. hmm... makes us sound like kids in a kindergarten classroom.  How about 'I don't give a crap if my neighbour catches it or not, as long as I don't get it all is fine'.  Or 'This virus crap is all a lefty hoax anyway so why bother..' or 'I'm young, it only kills (add something different than what I think I am) old folks, or city folks, or minorities' or any number of other selfish ego-driven excuses that clearly shows our inability to confront a totally apolitical threat as a united nation.  I call it 'Our terminal uniqueness'.  SAD.

Us seniors are reminded of the Federal (Nixon) mandated 55-mph speed limit during the 1970s oil embargo - largely ignored even with the highway patrol enforcing it, and deemed unsafe.

And I am old enough to remember the seat belt debate.  I can't move, much too restrictive, cuts into my belly, I am a good driver etc.  Same crap as with masks today.

I wish it were only a trillion, the number proposed by the Repubs.   The Dems are proposing three TRILLION - got to piggyback some progressive initiatives.   

BTW, the spending is more relief than stimulus.

It's is not a two-round fight Gator. What we spent so far will double, triple, maybe even quadruple down the road.  Is our 'terminal uniqueness' really that valuable?  We could be back in business today with few restrictions.  Maybe 1500 infections per day and deaths far less than a hundred per day.  Have to admit Gator, we screwed this up royally and continue to do so.
   

There is not a large difference in inflation and interest rates between EU and US, so the primary driver of changing currency valuations is debt.  Today's valuations reflect Biden's lead in the polls and the Democrats' obvious intentions to spend. spend, spend.       

Sure, blame Biden, which will cure everything.  You're much smarter than that Gator. 
 

BC, this is not over.   A year from now we will know the answer. Of course, no country goes unscathed, yet Europe is less hurt in the third inning.

 

We already know the answer and where we are heading. It is in our face right now and long from over.  Think about the July 4th 'hump', school opening, Labor day, election day, Thanksgiving, flu season and Christmas and New Year,  all still ahead of us with no vaccine in sight yet.  It piles up quickly..   Instead of denial, we should be asking ourselves 'Did we do our best?'.  The answer to that question is quite obvious as well as the totally unnecessary damage suffered and that yet to come. 

____________________________
P. S.  New cases in Florida are plateauing.  Hospitalizations and deaths have increased, but not to the rates experienced by New York and Italy in Spring.      Obese and elderly account for much of the severe cases.

In sum, it will be much worse than in NY and Italy.  Will there be fewer deaths? No.  Will there be less economic damage? No.  Did we learn anything from their mistakes? No.  Yeah, those old fat people, who give a shit about 'em.

Not trying to beat you up Gator, but it is high time we face the reality of this monster we created.

[Grumpy]

All of those deceased consumers are contributing little to the economy unless you are a grave digger or have similar employment. Several persons I know said persons in nursing homes don't spend much......I replied that they never priced nursing home care.   

[BC]

I would reckon 50 million retirees represent a notable portion of the economy.

They need cars, housing, clothing, food, utilities, vacations, entertainment, healthcare etc just like the rest of us.

Oh yes.. and without them, many golf courses would go out of business.

[Gator]

'Unruly'....selfish ego-driven excuses that clearly shows our inability to confront a totally apolitical threat as a united nation.

You give a couple of lefty perspectives of unruliness such as conservatives considering this a hoax.  I know of no conservatives who consider this a hoax.  We wear masks, etc. 

For an example of unruliness, look at Seattle, Portland,... In Florida, the mix of alcohol, young hormones and partying seems to be a key source of spreading. 

King George thought we were unruly.

And I am old enough to remember the seat belt debate.  I can't move, much too restrictive, cuts into my belly, I am a good driver etc.  Same crap as with masks today.

I thought seat belts were cool.  Wore mine.   Worse today as my trips are short and slow.  Nevertheless, I wear my mask in any closed space  and follow the 2-m rule.    Less keen about gloves, but the germ gestapo (my wife) compels me. 

 

Sure, blame Biden, which will cure everything.  You're much smarter than that Gator.

Biden will cave to the left.  If I am stupid, I assert I am less stupid than you if you believe a left leaning Democrat administration will not accelerate debt.
   

We already know the answer ....

If you know the answer, please enlighten me on how to invest for the next five years.  Is the answer sell everything US and buy Chinese stocks?  I don't think so. 

Yeah, those old fat people, who give a shit about 'em.

Did not say that, and certainly don't harbor such feelings.  I feel for my peers. 

Not trying to beat you up Gator, but it is high time we face the reality of this monster we created.

I thought the "monster" (i. e., the virus) originated in China, who did not do their best.    In hindsight, the world in early January should have closed all of China (borders, travelers, goods, etc.).   I imagine this will happen the next time provided the world enhances its surveillance, to include the WHO. 

[BC]

You give a couple of lefty perspectives of unruliness such as conservatives considering this a hoax.  I know of no conservatives who consider this a hoax.  We wear masks, etc.

The virus doesn't care. Hey! I got a great idea! Lets play 'spot the mask' !!  I found one.  How many can you find?  OMG!! Is that you?

For an example of unruliness, look at Seattle, Portland,... In Florida, the mix of alcohol, young hormones and partying seems to be a key source of spreading. 

Maybe an enforcement issue, or lack thereof?  I heard some place was issuing hundred buck fines.  Here it is $1,117 at today's exchange rate.  3,500 for violating quarantine and up to 5 years jail time.

King George thought we were unruly.

I'm sure he did use the polite term

I thought seat belts were cool.  Wore mine.   Worse today as my trips are short and slow.  Nevertheless, I wear my mask in any closed space  and follow the 2-m rule.    Less keen about gloves, but the germ gestapo (my wife) compels me. 

Gloves are out here and likely ends up causing more problems with people reusing them.  Good hand sanitizer (I do a home mix aloe and alcohol) is best.  The commercial stuff is a bit too sticky for me.  Also don't like reusable masks now that surgical masks are generally available in quantity.  If I go out I take one and dump it before driving home.

 

Biden will cave to the left.  If I am stupid, I assert I am less stupid than you if you believe a left leaning Democrat administration will not accelerate debt.

   
Nothing stupid about it.  Cleaning up disasters after GOP presidencies is becoming expensive.  Bush wars, financial crash and now unnecessary aftermath and recovery from the virus.  Believe Trump will set a new record though as the most expensive one-term president 

If you know the answer, please enlighten me on how to invest for the next five years.  Is the answer sell everything US and buy Chinese stocks?  I don't think so.

 

Cash out, diversify into a couple other currencies for balance and look for future buying opportunities that arise.  Depending on your age, maybe time to cross off a few items on your bucket list.  Send your kids overseas for their language skills and learn how others live, work and play.

Did not say that, and certainly don't harbor such feelings.  I feel for my peers. 

I know... I got 15 lbs to knock off.

I thought the "monster" (i. e., the virus) originated in China, who did not do their best.    In hindsight, the world in early January should have closed all of China (borders, travelers, goods, etc.).   I imagine this will happen the next time provided the world enhances its surveillance, to include the WHO.

The virus is not the monster.  We are, - morphed into one by our own selfishness.  The reason I'm not traveling to the US this year is not because of the virus, it is because of inconsiderate fellow citizens and residents that don't have my back.  If everyone were as conscientious as you and your family about taking simple precautions we would not be in the dire situation we are today.

[BC]

wow... 2!

[BillyB]

BC, it's not a conservative thing. Look at the photos in the links below. No social distancing and few masks among liberal protestors in Oklahoma. If you don't point out the major violations on both sides, you'll become a hypocrite. The violations are an American thing, not conservative or liberal. Personally, I wouldn't be around those crowds but Americans gonna do what Americans wanna do.

http://www.cnn.com/2020/06/20/us/nationwide-protests-saturday/index.html

http://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/oklahoma/articles/2020-06-03/nearly-50-arrested-after-protests-in-oklahoma-city-tulsa

[BC]

Billy,

there are more masks in the 50 or so folks in your pictures than I could find at the Trump rally photo.

But sure many folks all over are not wearing masks or distancing in places they should be doing so.  Do you?

BTW my poke at Gator was in reply to his 'We wear masks' remark, but yeah fair game is ok and no, I don't justify protestors for not taking proper precautions.

[fathertime]

  I know of no conservatives who consider this a hoax.  We wear masks, etc. 

 

Then you know VERY few people that are conservatives.   I know numerous people that are conservatives and many consider the virus a bunch of trumped up BS, designed to trip up trump. 

Fathertime! 

[GQBlues]

BC, it's not a conservative thing. Look at the photos in the links below. No social distancing and few masks among liberal protestors in Oklahoma. If you don't point out the major violations on both sides, you'll become a hypocrite. The violations are an American thing, not conservative or liberal. Personally, I wouldn't be around those crowds but Americans gonna do what Americans wanna do.

I don't think BC is being a hypocrite. He doesn't live here. How would he know? Besides, unlike Italians, many Americans refuse to wear mask until they start getting fined 1,000 Euros like the Italians. LMAO!

 http://www.thelocal.it/20200726/italian-region-imposes-1000-euro-fines-for-not-wearing-masks

Well, OK..Maybe he is a little bit.

[BillyB]

Billy,

there are more masks in the 50 or so folks in your pictures than I could find at the Trump rally photo.

But sure many folks all over are not wearing masks or distancing in places they should be doing so.  Do you?

BTW my poke at Gator was in reply to his 'We wear masks' remark, but yeah fair game is ok and no, I don't justify protestors for not taking proper precautions.

People got their temperature checked before entering the building for the Trump rally. Hand sanitizer also given to all. While taking temperature is not the best test for COVID-19, something is better than nothing. The protestors don't have anybody checking on them. Bottom line is we all have an idea of the risks and some people feel the risk is acceptable when attending a rally or protest. Politicians certainly aren't trying to change their behavior.

[BC]

Billy,

just google 'portland protests'  It is full of protesters wearing masks.  In fact, just guessing at the very least half of protestors wear them.

Protests are mainly in open venues.  Not an excuse for sure, but at least distancing is possible.

Do you deny that masking, until late has been very much a political statement from the right end of the political spectrum?  Do you deny that our president chided Biden for wearing a mask in the middle of a pandemic that has killed 150,000 or more citizens and now suddenly says it's 'cool'?

Do you think what our leaders do, or don't does not influence how their followers act and react?  Of course it does and we can clearly see the results today at worldometer.com



http://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/25/republicans-democrats-move-even-further-apart-in-coronavirus-concerns/

FUBAR is where we are at, and yes the finger can be pointed at straight Trump for our piss poor performance.