Trip to Ukraine

[Boethius]

BOhappy to see you return safely homedon't listen to this Russian rascistwho hates every culture but Russianafter reading her old postsshe is clearly one of the most delusional people ever to have posted on this boardso BOwhat about the electionmood for Maidan II, potential?war with Russia

I get a real sense of malaise which could be explosive, but that's been the case for years, so, who knows?  The problems are the economy is poor, and the thieving politicians are desperate because there is nothing left to steal (unless they privatize farmland), and no way to move their ill gotten gains abroad. 

Having been to both Russia and Ukraine, my view is that Ukraine is freer politically, but Russians are far better off economically.  The political atmosphere in Russia reminds me of Soviet times during so called glasnost' - free but not really free, but without the certain "chaos" of that time. 

As it happens I do have relatives in Ukraine too. When I call, all I hear is   begging  me to arrange  a nice american guy to marry for their daughters and granddaughters.  Does not matter what guy it is,  as long as he is able and willing to get the girls out. So forgive me, if I am still inclined to trust my  family more.

This is typically the M.O. of those not willing to work for themselves.

My husband has a large extended family.  Not one of them, or their children, has moved abroad, although a few studied in the U.S., one lived in Italy for several years  All but two of his cousin's children are married.  One is single (too fat to find a man), and the other has a long term man in her life, they just have not married yet. 

I have family in Western Ukraine.  They also have never asked me for anything.  Most of them work abroad for periods, then return.

I do agree that Ukraine does not make it easy to raise a family.  The social system is broken, the politicians are incompetent thieves who largely do not care about the population.  But having Russia as a neighbour has not been easy, either.

There are way too many ukranian women around for my taste.

Too funny.  That is exactly what my husband says about all FSU individuals, whether raised in Soviet times or thereafter.  His family roots are in Moscow from 1605, and the other half, in St. Petersburg from 1725.  But, he doesn't care if FSU individuals are here, he just doesn't want to be exposed to them, or interact with them.

[Boethius]

To expand on your question, krimster, the better half says that if there are more protests, it could lead to bloodshed, worse than in Donbas (which he also predicted).  He said historically, Ukrainians will put up with a certain amount of oppression, and will then explode.  It is very unpredictable because of the abyss between the political class (wealth wise) and the balance of the population.

[SteveInBoston]

Thank you Bo for the information.

I didn't pay attention to the political situation or sentiment when I was in Ukraine last time.  My fiance hasn't gone into detail other than complaints about corruption now and then.  I will definitely ask her and her family more about it when I visit next week.

[mendeleyev]

There doesn't seem to be a "powder keg" ready to explode in Kyiv at the moment and if one were to explode, it would be in Kyiv. Well, unless the realignment of Orthodox Churches which Moscow strongly opposes erupts into violence and then armed conflict.


I spoke to a middle class (few exist) small business owner yesterday and was told that citizens know the politicians are corrupt, but most in her circle see bits of progress and understand that change is a process. I hope that she is correct.


The potential for violence could be if the Ukrainians start to seize church properties given the developments recently in the Ukrainian Church being granted independence from Moscow. The Kremlin has warned that attempts to seize ROC properties would be met with "appropriate force." Putin's ratings, while still above 50%, are the lowest in recent memory due to the economy, raising the retirement age, etc. His numbers always rise after a military action so that is a concern for Ukraine, and also for Belarus.


UOC Patriarch Filaret has been quite vocal in urging citizens not to act and to allow the breakup of churches to happen in a more organic fashion. He is wise and in recent weeks some 160 ROC parishes in Ukraine have indicated that they will transfer to the new Ukrainian church in the near future.


I have spoken to folk who had no idea whether the Orthodox church they attend is aligned with Moscow, or not. But many do know and have already voted with their feet, one way or the other. Since 2014 many Ukrainians have expressed anger that priests aligned with Moscow bless soldiers traveling to fight for Russia in the East, and refuse to bless soldiers traveling to fight with the Ukrainian Army. Russian aligned priests often refuse funerals for those killed in action for the Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Forces (the name for this war) but serve funerals for Russian backed fighters.


A recent poll showed that just under 13% of Ukrainians feel strong ties to the Russian Church in Ukraine and the number of Ukrainians who feel strongly about allegiance to the Ukrainian Church is more than double that number at 28%. However, some 26% of Orthodox Ukrainians have no opinion on the issue.


The Russian church claims over 12,000 Ukrainian parishes while the Ukrainian Church numbers just over 5,600. A small third Orthodox body which will eventually be merged into the Ukrainian Church has just over 900 parishes. Those numbers have moved significantly in Ukraine's favour since the seizure of Crimea and since fighting began in the East.


As long-time Orthodox Christians, we have personally voted with our feet (and pocketbook).

[krimster2]

my fear is that if Kyiv doesn't have a  powder keg
one may be provided to them

ever hear of the "shock battalions" being trained in Crimea?
who better to go fight Ukrainians than another Ukrainian
ask the folks in Lugansk as well

this summer dressed in standard issue Russian military fatigues with kapka and sun glasses
I looked like your standard Russian Colonel
and I went on a tour of a Shock Battalion training camp in Krim with a relative
the Colonel and his footman

I learned a lot about what's to come
also real Colonel's are unhappy

for god's sake, can't someone in Ukraine wake up and reopen the Northern Crimean Canal? and hurry?
else when the Russian Military takes Odessa, Putin is going to be the biggest freakin HERO Russia ever had
bigger than YES
STALIN

nobody listens to me....
I totally would've told Austria, "stay out of Serbia" after the archduke got wacked in Sarajevo

[krimster2]

funny you mentioned it
I did a bike trip of a reverse flow of the Northern Crimean Canal
started from the field irrigation and went ALL THE WAY BABY to Kerch, to see the actual PIPELINE!!!

had a great time

this is what the end of the Northern Crimean Canal looks like (and high and dry) photo taken July 2018
the end of the line and the last of the little canals that connects to a bigger canal network

[Boethius]

I should clarify my comment.  I don't mean that the population will explode on the streets.  I just mean that if another coup or political operation is organized, for whatever reason, the population is ready to take part because the situation there is unstable and corruption is not, truly, much better.  I spoke with countless Ukrainians, and almost everyone I spoke with was working class.  Their options are far more restricted than those with some money.  There is what I would describe as a seething resentment.    I think these things can be surprising.  The number of individuals who predicted the collapse of the USSR a year before it happened is fairly low, AFAIK.  I know of only 2 - my husband, and an American journalist based on Canada, Eric Margolis, although he didn't predict the collapse, he predicted the crackdown and a Pinochet-type economy, which archives have proven was considered. 

I also did not hear Ukrainian much on the streets of Kyiv.  Russian is still the most commonly used language in the city.  As much as Poroshenko has been a disappointment, I am thrilled that, unlike past Ukrainian presidents, he actually does speak Ukrainian fluently.


Finally, I believe the church "schism", so to speak, is overblown.  It is opportunism.  I remember seeing Orthodox believers marching and hitting each other signs in about 1994.  I specifically remember it, in a march on the street leading to Volodymysky Sobor, because I was so shocked by those actions.  I believe a lot of this is a power grab in Ukraine, thanks to a weak and not particularly bright (they go hand in hand) metropolit in Moscow. 

[mendeleyev]

While I agree on the mental prowess of those in Moscow, Bo the church issue is big in my opinion. We will see how it plays out, but not only will the ROC lose almost half their constituents, but Putin loses any chance of establishing his Russian World. Although the Moscow church has 2/3 more parishes, the number of faithful is about even as Ukrainians have been voting with their feet for a couple of years now due to ROC clergy refusing to perform funerals for Ukrainian soldiers, and other issues, etc.


Some years ago the two Patriarchs had a similar stand off over the church in Estonia. Moscow broke off communion for awhile but today there are two "official" Orthodox bodies in Estonia, one following Moscow and the other following the EP in Istanbul.


This is different, however, because it is Ukraine and not a small outpost. We'll see.

[Boethius]

Had there not been a demand for autocephaly by Partriarch Filaret since 1991, I could agree with you.  I think anything that divides, rather than unites, Christians, is sad.


ETA - This post was composed without the aid of google.

[mendeleyev]

Since both remain Orthodox, there is no division other than one purposely created by Moscow. I am certain that over time both will accept the other and life will go on.


As to this movement supposedly beginning in 1991, not quite. There was the Kiev Sobor in 1921, and the eventual claim by the Polish Orthodox Church as the successor to the Kyiv Patriarchy.


What will be interesting in the future is to see how quickly Moscow returns to the fold (as they have done after previous spats with the EP). It will also be interesting to see when the church in Belarus also asks for independence. Belarus was a part of the canonical territory that was granted to Moscow by the EP in 1686, and the EP has ruled that act as no longer valid, thus opening up the question of Minsk someday seeking its own church.

[Boethius]

Yes, but the impetus at that time was the same as now.  It has little to do with spirituality.

Orthodox churches tend to be fairly independent, in any event.  It's not like there is a pope to bring down a hammer. 


This post was composed without the aid of google.