The Russia We'd Like To See

[Gator]

Because he would have to explain to the EU how he stole the money while Russia would look the other way. It was in Russia's best interest to keep a thief in power so they could step all over it.

I have watched a couple of observers on TV say that Germany through clumsy diplomacy triggered the Russia-Ukraine conflict.   

Germany encouraged Ukraine to reduce the ties it had with Russia and start a closer relationship with the West, one that could lead to Ukraine joining the EU.  Even though Germany knew Russia would object vehemently to such a move, Germany negotiated with Ukraine without addressing Russia's concerns.

In the deal being negotiated, Germany and the EU placed too stringent financial  requirements on Ukraine (can you say Greece and Cyprus).  This compelled Yanukovych to return to Russia for a less onerous deal, plus Victor could continue to skim. 

Everyone knows what happened next.

[JayH]

Mende--  nice to see you posting. I have been wondering how you were faring!!

Putin knows full well that controlling Russian media is a key to staying in control-  so the last thing he was ever going to need on his doorstep was a functioning democracy--let alone one with a free press intent on showing the sins of past regimes-- and a current Russian one.

Gator-- a lot of media still don't get what took place in Ukraine-- the part the outside issues being responsible are only part of a puzzle- and in my view it was a series of events that created the immediate climate for Maidan. What did take place was a magnificent display of democracy and the peoples will overcoming the odds.
Needless to say-- a lot of that has been swallowed in the subsequent struggle to survive as a nation as Putin's Russian invasion of Ukraine proceeds.

[AC]

I have watched a couple of observers on TV say that Germany through clumsy diplomacy triggered the Russia-Ukraine conflict.   

Germany encouraged Ukraine to reduce the ties it had with Russia and start a closer relationship with the West, one that could lead to Ukraine joining the EU.  Even though Germany knew Russia would object vehemently to such a move, Germany negotiated with Ukraine without addressing Russia's concerns.

In the deal being negotiated, Germany and the EU placed too stringent financial  requirements on Ukraine (can you say Greece and Cyprus).  This compelled Yanukovych to return to Russia for a less onerous deal, plus Victor could continue to skim. 

Everyone knows what happened next.

This sounds like a very likely scenario.  Too bad that the EU simply left Ukraine to the wolves, so to speak. 

[lordtiberius]

Say a prayer for peace

[AC]

Say a prayer for peace

Prayers don't stop tanks and Grad rocket launchers.  Pray that Congress authorizes heavy weapons for Ukraine stat.

[Brasscasing]

The last few months of my life ...

Well Holy Crap! Now there's blast from the past. How are you, Mendy?

Grab a chair and set a spell. I mentioned somewhere here that you and I were calling this thing back in 2009. I gotta admit I was expecting a bit more of an answer from the free world this time around though (don't know why, the little guy pulled basically the same thing in Georgia and got away with it then as well).

Anyhoo, look forward to comparing notes with you and kibitzing over this latest occupation.

Great post, buddy. You always know how to make an entrance.

Brass

[calmissile]

Welcome back Mendy.  I was wondering how you were coping with the Kremlin propaganda.

I agree, the USA has done next to nothing to assist Ukraine.  Even more disappointing to me is Europe's lack of meaningful response.  Ukraine is in their back yard and Putin poses a much greater to risk to them in the long run than he does to the USA.  It seems money and business interests are more important than defense and freedom.

My wife and step-daughter will be coming from Kiev to the US this weekend.  We will still worry about grandma in Kiev that does not want to go anywhere.

Your post pretty well sums up what most of us know and think about the Kremlin and truths about the war.  We have at least one Russian women and a couple men with Russian wives that don't believe a word of it. I have never run into people as stubborn and cannot accept the obvious.

Keep us informed if you don't mind.  I know many of us think about you often and wonder how you are doing.

[AC]

I thank God for the Canadians who to my knowledge are the only Western civilization who have stepped up and provided real fighting equipment to Ukraine in the form of armoured carriers. Last week a fleet of new style of field ambulance, equipped to withstand small to medium enemy fire, was received in Ukraine, thanks to Canada. I have no idea if these are gifts, purchased, or lend-lease, but the fact that matters is that they are here.

Russia is slowly waking up. A combination of sanctions, plunging ruble, and inflation are beginning to take a toll. Despite the government's insanely stupid labeling of the primary group of Mothers of Russian Soldiers as a so-called "foreign agent," those mothers whose sons are buried in shallow Ukrainian graves, scattered in cemeteries in the Rostov area, strange burials at night in Pskov, etc, are taking a toll. There can only be so many "training incidents" along the southern border before parents of dead young sons begin to ask more questions.

The president of a country who would tell another president that he can't remove troops from Ukraine because "they aren't there," but then go on German TV to declare that "Russia won't allow" Ukraine to defeat the breakaway regions, is either a pathological liar, or the best actor that Hollywood has never seen.

Excellent post!  It's no secret to most of the World that huilo is a pathological liar.  Hopefully as more Russian soldiers refuse to go to Ukraine, and as more of the mothers of the dead ones returning protest; there will be a sea change in Russian public opinion.

[Gator]

jone in his OP wrote, "I'm afraid Russia is hellbent on its own destruction."

I found a recent article that discusses exactly that.  It was written by Leonid Bershidsky for Bloomberg View, entitled Does Putin's Russia Have a Future?

Bershidsky discusses two detailed scenarios proposed by experts in the Russian community.  One was proposed by  Andrei Movchan,   the second by Vladislav Inozemtsev, who accused Movchan of "wishful thinking."  I summarize the two:



Movchan's Scenario

Putin continues to drive Russia towards a "feudal-nationalist" state and further international isolation.

The economy stagnates and around 2020 living standards will decline to 2003 levels.

At that time, Putin steps aside for a successor from his inner circle, yet retains the title of "national leader."

Russia's domestic policy shifts sharply to the left with capital controls, punitive taxes, restrictions against flight of capital, censored Internet, and minimal imports, with crime rates the same as in the 1990s. 

The move to the left fails, and by 2024 Russia seeks help from the West, returning Crimea to Ukraine and implementing Western reforms. 

Western reforms do not work and by 2050, Ukraine, Belarus and parts of European Russia are integrated into the EU,  and Siberia and the Far East become "de-facto Chinese dominions."



Inozemtsev's Scenario

Putin reelected in 2018.

Oil prices recover and oligarchs become even richer.

Large emigration of Russians, a million per year in 2020-2024.

West invests not in Russia but in ex-Soviet states bordering Russia, prompting their dynamic growth.

By 2030, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Moldova join the EU.

Russia turns into China's "respected satellite" and main energy supplier, having lost the European energy market to alternative energy and sources.

Putin dies in office in the mid-2030's, having turned his country into an “apathetic, largely neutral backwater, ripe for China to pick up and turn into a 'moderately developed Pacific power.' "


http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-07/does-putins-russia-have-a-future

[Gator]

BTW, Bershidsky commented that it is impossible to make accurate predictions for the next one to two years, much less for the nest 20, 30,.... years.


He concluded:   "It is, indeed, hard to see what force could topple Putin in the immediate future or change his mind about breaking with the West and making a doomed bid for self-sufficiency. Therefore the scenarios of economic gloom and political sclerosis."

"Russia, however, has always been able to magically heal itself after the most painful wrong turns. Perhaps, as it heads into another one, some miracle will present itself to prove the forecasters wrong."


Finally, my predictions made earlier, somewhat in jest yet not far different than discussed above.

1.  Crimea's future  will resemble that of the Turkish-controlled part of Cyprus.

2.  East Ukraine's economic future will resemble Chechnya's.

3.  Russia will become more and more like North Korea. 

4.  The part of Ukraine under Kiev's government will blossom eventually.

[sleepycat]

In both scenarios Russia becomes a vassal state to China. So it will be good if either one of them becomes reality.

[AC]

BTW, Bershidsky commented that it is impossible to make accurate predictions for the next one to two years, much less for the nest 20, 30,.... years.


He concluded:   "It is, indeed, hard to see what force could topple Putin in the immediate future or change his mind about breaking with the West and making a doomed bid for self-sufficiency. Therefore the scenarios of economic gloom and political sclerosis."

"Russia, however, has always been able to magically heal itself after the most painful wrong turns. Perhaps, as it heads into another one, some miracle will present itself to prove the forecasters wrong."


Finally, my predictions made earlier, somewhat in jest yet not far different than discussed above.

1.  Crimea's future  will resemble that of the Turkish-controlled part of Cyprus.

2.  East Ukraine's economic future will resemble Chechnya's.

3.  Russia will become more and more like North Korea. 

4.  The part of Ukraine under Kiev's government will blossom eventually.

I watched that video of him and thought it was excellent.  As he says in the video Russia is still going to be around; it's been around since the 10th Century.  People will still visit.  It's still got a lot of attractive things about it.  Too bad for the Russian people and especially for E. Ukraine that the guy running the place is a Neanderthal.  I suspect it might end for Putin like it ended for Hitler -- somewhere in a bunker he takes his life and that of his female companion.

[Doll]

Enjoy

[Muzh]

I did.


It was hilarious.


Tell me, do you think he really believe all that BS? 

[Doll]

It is not BS, this is how it is going to be.

[Photo Guy]

The speech.
Let's start here:
'...This year we faced trials that only a mature and united nation and a truly sovereign and strong state can withstand. Russia has proved that it can protect its compatriots and defend truth and fairness...'

What is he referring to? Who is he protecting? Did he imagine that he protected people in Crimea?? Before Russia stole Crimea, the people there were not vulnerable. The Russian navy was there. So that makes no sense. Did he imagine that Ukraine would force the Russian navy out of there? Absurd. Also, the rebels in Ukraine were offered a high degree of autonomy, and they refused it, with their military leaders saying they wanted to push all the way to Poland. So these crazy people are his 'compatriots'? And he uses the word 'truth'?? He cares nothing about truth. He lies often and this can be easily verified. Anyone who has friends in Ukrainian cities, knows that the new government has not acted like neo-nazi fascists. So that's Putin's huge lie. And then there's the huge lie about no Russian military in Ukraine. He admitted to that lie in Crimea, and Strelkov/Girkin, from Moscow, tells us about Russian military involvement. So Putin has his people disregarding these facts, these truths. I'll be curious what lies he tells when he invades the city of Mariupol'.
 ...Putin uses the word, 'sovereign'. This is crazy. He is in the process of destroying his brothers in Ukraine, by completely disrespecting Ukraine's sovereignty. Is all that matters to Putin is 'strength'. what about sovereignty? Russia is strong. Ukraine is weak. That's how civilized Putin is. I think we all agree that Russia is 'strong'. And yet Putin needs to say that, as if strength is everything. If we are talking about weakness and strength, then tell me the Russian word for 'bully'. Does it exist in the Russian language?!  ...more analysis tomorrow.

[AC]

The speech.
Let's start here:
'...This year we faced trials that only a mature and united nation and a truly sovereign and strong state can withstand. Russia has proved that it can protect its compatriots and defend truth and fairness...'

What is he referring to? Who is he protecting? Did he imagine that he protected people in Crimea?? Before Russia stole Crimea, the people there were not vulnerable. The Russian navy was there. So that makes no sense. Did he imagine that Ukraine would force the Russian navy out of there? Absurd. Also, the rebels in Ukraine were offered a high degree of autonomy, and they refused it, with their military leaders saying they wanted to push all the way to Poland. So these crazy people are his 'compatriots'? And he uses the word 'truth'?? He cares nothing about truth. He lies often and this can be easily verified. Anyone who has friends in Ukrainian cities, knows that the new government has not acted like neo-nazi fascists. So that's Putin's huge lie. And then there's the huge lie about no Russian military in Ukraine. He admitted to that lie in Crimea, and Strelkov/Girkin, from Moscow, tells us about Russian military involvement. So Putin has his people disregarding these facts, these truths. I'll be curious what lies he tells when he invades the city of Mariupol'. ...more analysis tomorrow.

Is it finally dawning on you why ML doesn't like Russian people?

[Photo Guy]

I'm not familiar with ML, I need to read the boards more. I have a friend in Kiev who is ethnic Russian. She has relatives in Russia. She's reasonable. She is for a united Ukraine. ...I would imagine there are other reasonable people in Russia. I hope so...

[AC]

I'm not familiar with ML, I need to read the boards more. I have a friend in Kiev who is ethnic Russian. She has relatives in Russia. She's reasonable. She is for a united Ukraine. ...I would imagine there are other reasonable people in Russia. I hope so...

ML is a poster here and when he got back from Ukraine he had some very strong words for Russians in general.  Obviously there are some very good people who just happen to be Russian.  Some are suspicious of Putin and others may not want to know the truth because there is no benefit for them to stick their necks out.  And others are like a couple of posters here who seem to be blindly following him.

[sleepycat]

Enjoy

Dunno why you are trying so hard to promote the ideas of that midget clown on RWD.
Surely even you must realise it's a futile cause to try to convince the rest of us...

[Photo Guy]

I don't have a problem with his size. It's disrespectful to associate him and his monstrous ideas with normal little people...

[AC]

I don't have a problem with his size. It's disrespectful to associate him and his monstrous ideas with normal little people...

PC speech is just as bad as Russian television.  Having said that we can confidently compare his height to that of Hitler and Napoleon.  Both went down in flames, and so will Putin.

[Photo Guy]

Yeah, but millions dead....unthinkable.

[Doll]

Dunno why you are trying so hard to promote the ideas of that midget clown on RWD.
Surely even you must realise it's a futile cause to try to convince the rest of us...

I listened to Obama's speech in UN, Poroshenko's in NATO, now Putin had his annual speech.
You are discussing Russia? He is the President of RF

[Doll]

PC speech is just as bad as Russian television.  Having said that we can confidently compare his height to that of Hitler and Napoleon.  Both went down in flames, and so will Putin.

Both Hitler and Napolepon tried to  defeat Russia- didn't work.
Height doesn't count.