The Struggle For Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

Moldova is next in line after Ukraine, but it's army is still woefully too small, as this article states less than 10,000 soldiers:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/25/moldova-russian-politics-ukraine-invasion-europe/

We need to start arming Moldova now and Moldova getting as many of its men as possible into it's army in preparation for next year.

[Trenchcoat]

Good exchange rate on the Ukrainian Hrivna at the moment currently 50 Hrivna to the British Pound.

http://www.google.com/search?q=gbp+to+uah&oq=gbp+to+UAH

Looks as the Ukrainian economy weakens there could be good bargains to be had. For how long that will go on for who knows?

[krimster2]

Those Russian MFers!

They claim to be fighting "Ukrainian Faschista" in Odesa of all places, which ain't exactly known for it's "Carpathian Attitudes"....
I mean, don't get me wrong, "Wild Dances" was very popular in Odesa 'back in the day and also "I dance with the wolves..."

but firing an Iskander Cluster Bomb at a freakin historic Law School
and kill middle aged women out shopping with their dawg...
and call this an "Anti-Fascist" Operation
is beyond phuqued-up
like blaming the people who warned ya about Crocus City for Crocus City


I am descended from Odesa Yevray....who fled the pogrom to Amerika
and I say "PHUQUE YOU PUTIN"
RESISTANCE IS NOT FUTILE!!!!!

But now I must reveal to you folks here
that by the pricking of my thumb
I am gonna warn ya of things to come

In a nameless Moscva suburb near an old military airport
is a special unit of the GRU that does 'computer simulations' for the military
they ended up doing non-linear analysis of banking and financial systems
and they had a DIRECT LINE TO PUTIN, who considers them damn near infallible, the "Quants"

they're the ones who told Putin about Silicon Valley Bank who then told Peter Thiel, who then started a bank run leading to it's collapse and bailout!!

this same group is predicting that 2025 is the last year of US support for Ukraine, and after that spending limits will NOT ALLOW any further support...

Russia has already gamed this out with different competing teams
as long as Democrats win in Nov, Ukraine will have support through 2025

but after that spending limits and rising interest on the debt
will mean that after about 10 years from now, it's impossible for the USA to EVER have an increase in GDP, cuz interest on the Federal Deficit is gonna be almost 4% 10 yr from now
and spending 70-80 billion USD/yr on Ukraine just ain't very likely
and if US Aid is reduced, you know that after a short while the EU will follow...

so, according to this gameplan, whoever can last the longest is the winner
Ukraine has at worst case, 1 more year of support, and at best case 2 more....

after that, the kill ratio will shift more to Russia's favor, especially as Russian military industry is mobilized, which it partially is...

sometime by the End of June, Russia will have passed the 500,000 casualty mark

Ukraine has to gamble on it's future support

if Russia can afford to pay the bill on 1-2 more years of this trench warfare with drones without having to give up much territory to Ukraine
because the forces are balanced that way

what happens to this balance
if Ukraine loses it's Western Sponsors due to a global Recession/Depression
which doesn't effect Russia, cuz they're decoupled from the West's economy

these Russki Quant guys code in a really funny old fashioned style, it cracks me up, their documentation is so formal...
Russian Fortran IV!!!!LOL!!!!

I miss all that old Soviet Electrnics
like The Minsk Radio's

Ivan, did you hear that the American that used to work here, shot Kennedy?

look at Oswald's picture in Minsk.....
that look...
he KNEW...
IN MINSK!!

malenky kartoshkie compared to today
what October Surprize will Putin gift us???
what smiling figure who alters the future???

one thing fer sure, good buddy, we ain't gonna have long to wait!!!!

[Trenchcoat]

For the West I think their main aim is to bust up the Russian economy and run down Russian Armaments. By next year all the vast stockpile of Armaments the Soviets has built up will be gone, anything new Russia added or bought in will be gone too. Sure Russia may use Novichok, Neutron Bombs, etc to win the war but it will still be left with very little Armaments or Economy in any good shape.

If Ukraine was saved that would be a bonus for the West but the main deal I believe is leading Russia to a state where it has used up most of its Armaments and finance and is teetering on the edge of collapse.

I have an idea of what Russia might do but it may be too little too late for itself.

The Russian economy is already not in great shape, inflation & interest rates up a lot, currency reserves going down, tax revenue down, and industrial output down. I am already thinking that the writing is potentially already on the wall for Russia long term, even if the Russian economy was not pushed to the brink next year the downward spiral might already be too much for it to avoid sinking into economic devastation long term.

[Trenchcoat]

Russia's Oligarchs still very wealthy and moving their vast fortunes around despite western sanctions. Cyprus has been key to that laundering much of the Russian Oligarchs wealth under the radar with not much attention in the mainstream media:

http://www.icij.org/investigations/cyprus-confidential/cyprus-russia-eu-secrecy-tax-haven/

Of recent a lot of Russians have moved to Northern Cyprus (Turkish Controlled) from Southern Cyprus (Greek Controlled) to invest there piling big money into large construction developments:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/15/there-are-no-questions-asked-how-russian-money-is-fuelling-a-building-boom-in-northern-cyprus

[krimster2]

this struggle in Ukraine has centuries of inertia behind it
the tide of war will ebb and flow in Ukraine like the ocean's tide
but this struggle like the earth itself, abideth forever...

after next year, budget ceiling caps will put an end to the USA's funding of Ukraine
this marks the beginning of Ukraine's fall...
afterwards, Ukrainian soldiers are forced to fight in Moldova and Georgia
for the Russian Kleptocracy's Merger and Acquistions Department
and then Moldovans and Georgians will go work on acqusitions in the 'stans

when the debt bombs EXPLODE in the 2030s they will do more damage than nuclear ones
and everyone reading this is gonna be PHUQUED no matter where or how you live
it's an historic inflection point, like the crash of '29 and the depression that followed it, and the wars that followed that

and it is going to happen with 100% certainty
too bad we were all so focused on Gay Cowboys to deal with this....
but good magicians on conservative media always know how to redirect yur attention
so ya don't see "their trick" up their sleeve

in reality...
the 2024 election is NOT about Biden vrs Trump
it's about are we going with the Demcrat's plan of raising taxes on the richest to offset the rising debt
or the republican's plan of cutting social security and medicare for the poor to offset the debt

either plan, is not a permanent solution to the problem
but only extends the inevidible outcome by a few more years

obviously, you can't sell the Republican plan to poor folks
so you deceive them with the meanace of gay cowboys and diversity and of course, RELIGION!!!!! especially Religion, like Trump cluthching a Bible he's tryin to sell ya
and because Trump voters are dumb phuques, they believe all the BS they're being spoon fed on conservative media
and act against their own economic interests, and that's the primary purpose of oligarch owned media like Fox News, NY Post, WSJ, OAN, etc
to con the poorly educated, to act in the interests of the oligarchy

c'mon all ya big strong manly Trump Voters
if ya'll don't like what I write here, then convince me, that I'm wrong....

let's see how mighty yur pen is compared to mine
en garde!