The Struggle For Ukraine

[Boethius]

Given the totality of the situation the demands weren't as big as perhaps expected.   It could be that Putin's demands were made public to provide some political cover to the nations that aren't cutting Russia off.  Nations like China, India, Pakistan could see these demands as not unreasonable, given the circumstances.  If that is the case, those nations could continue to provide outlets for Russia, now and in the future.   
If Russia's demands are going to shrink, as you assert, then Ukraine would have more incentive to continue to fight.   I'm not convinced that will be the case unless Russia is willing to take a total loss.  It seems they would go to much greater lengths which would encompass destruction of Ukraine on an even much wider scale. 

Fathertime!

No, the demands are because internal Russian analysis is telling them they can't win in the long term.  Putin believed the Ukrainian population would capitulate, that his troops would just march in and take the country.  He never expected resistance.  That's why there is this "face saving" measure. 


I don't think Ukraine should agree to neutrality.  I think Ukraine should have good relations with Russia, but given everything that's happened since 2014, that will take at least a generation.


Russia has planted landmines in civilian escape corridors, shot fleeing civilians (women and children), dropped cluster bombs in civilian areas of Kharkiv, and lost control of at least one city they had taken.  They can't go to a "greater scale" unless they are willing to lose thousands of soldiers to do so.

[Boethius]

Partisan warfare at its best.

Yup.  The Soviets didn't defeat Ukrainian partisans in Western Ukraine (the "banderivtsi") until around 1953-54, and those partisans were fighting the Poles simultaneously!  There are thousands of Ukrainian villages, and they can't be taken. 

[Boethius]

This is an FSB analysis.  The original article is in the Telegraph (an excellent newspaper).  However, the Telegraph is a pay site and I can't share a token, so I am providing a link to the Daily Mail's synopsis, which is also fairly good, notwithstanding the somewhat dodgy source.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10585325/Russia-facing-total-failure-invasion-Ukraine-Moscow-whistleblower-analyst-claims.html

[2tallbill]

Wife just read that now Poland has flipped back to NOT sending fighter planes to Ukraine.

Poland doesn't make fighter jets, so they want assurances from the
USA that the jets they give away will be replaced. I haven't found
anything anywhere about who pays for the replacement jets.

I have read reports that replacement jets won't arrive for a couple
years, 2024 or later. Also to be noted are what types of jets would
be given to Ukraine. This is not my expertise, but would think that
right now they could use fighter/bombers and close air support types
that have at least some stealth ability.

I will ask my son what he thinks about it.

If we are giving away planes, I am pretty sure that it would be in
the package that congress is currently putting together, the problem
is when you get politicians involved, they tend to screw it up, screw
around with it, pork it up, hold it up so they can push their green new
deal, etc. etc.



U.S. Congress negotiators nearing deal on Ukraine aid, government funding bill
http://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-aim-reset-domestic-legislative-agenda-after-biden-speech-2022-03-07/


White House wants $10 billion for Ukraine aid, $22.5 billion for more COVID help
http://www.virginiamercury.com/2022/03/03/white-house-wants-10-billion-for-ukraine-aid-22-5-billion-for-more-covid-help/



UK pledges another £80 million in aid to help Ukraine deal with humanitarian crisis
http://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukraine-uk-pledges-another-80million-in-aid-to-help-ukraine-deal-with-humanitarian-crisis

[Admin]

This is an FSB analysis.  The original article is in the Telegraph (an excellent newspaper).  However, the Telegraph is a pay site and I can't share a token, so I am providing a link to the Daily Mail's synopsis, which is also fairly good, notwithstanding the somewhat dodgy source.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10585325/Russia-facing-total-failure-invasion-Ukraine-Moscow-whistleblower-analyst-claims.html

As I wrote in response to a criticism of my choice of sources recently, I care very little about the source itself, if the information is credible and passes my own filtering system, I want to pay attention. I may not agree with all of it, or any of it, but I still pay attention. Thanks for the link. It rings true to my ears, FWIW.

[Admin]

Poland doesn't make fighter jets, so they want assurances from the
USA that the jets they give away will be replaced. I haven't found
anything anywhere about who pays for the replacement jets.

I have read reports that replacement jets won't arrive for a couple
years, 2024 or later. Also to be noted are what types of jets would
be given to Ukraine. This is not my expertise, but would think that
right now they could use fighter/bombers and close air support types
that have at least some stealth ability.

I will ask my son what he thinks about it.

If we are giving away planes, I am pretty sure that it would be in
the package that congress is currently putting together, the problem
is when you get politicians involved, they tend to screw it up, screw
around with it, pork it up, hold it up so they can push their green new
deal, etc. etc.



U.S. Congress negotiators nearing deal on Ukraine aid, government funding bill
http://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-aim-reset-domestic-legislative-agenda-after-biden-speech-2022-03-07/


White House wants $10 billion for Ukraine aid, $22.5 billion for more COVID help
http://www.virginiamercury.com/2022/03/03/white-house-wants-10-billion-for-ukraine-aid-22-5-billion-for-more-covid-help/



UK pledges another £80 million in aid to help Ukraine deal with humanitarian crisis
http://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukraine-uk-pledges-another-80million-in-aid-to-help-ukraine-deal-with-humanitarian-crisis

Poland would transfer older MiG-29's to Ukraine which would be replaced by American F-16's. Poland has as many as 21 of the MiG-29s, but I don't know if all, or only some, of them are under consideration. Lots of details still to be resolved before any transfer is conducted.

[2tallbill]

I don't know what to advise on this . . . as I don't want a surrender, but also want the killing to stop.

I do pray that if war stops, that USA and all other nations continue existing sanctions on Russia until Russia provides the funds to rebuild all the structures and infrastructure that has been destroyed by them in Ukraine.

I don't have a solution, but maybe an idea. Boot them out of the WTO.
Their membership in the WTO guarantees them very small taxation on
all their exports. If they get booted then they can be taxed at a higher
rate with the benefits going to rebuild Ukraine.

Although, things have in Ukraine supposedly improved. You need something
to ensure that the taxes collected don't go directly to mink coats and boob
jobs for the mistresses of the Rada members.

[John Gaunt]

Poland doesn't make fighter jets, so they want assurances from the
USA that the jets they give away will be replaced. I haven't found
anything anywhere about who pays for the replacement jets.

I have read reports that replacement jets won't arrive for a couple
years, 2024 or later. Also to be noted are what types of jets would
be given to Ukraine. This is not my expertise, but would think that
right now they could use fighter/bombers and close air support types
that have at least some stealth ability.

I will ask my son what he thinks about it.

If we are giving away planes, I am pretty sure that it would be in
the package that congress is currently putting together, the problem
is when you get politicians involved, they tend to screw it up, screw
around with it, pork it up, hold it up so they can push their green new
deal, etc. etc.



U.S. Congress negotiators nearing deal on Ukraine aid, government funding bill
http://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-aim-reset-domestic-legislative-agenda-after-biden-speech-2022-03-07/


White House wants $10 billion for Ukraine aid, $22.5 billion for more COVID help
http://www.virginiamercury.com/2022/03/03/white-house-wants-10-billion-for-ukraine-aid-22-5-billion-for-more-covid-help/



UK pledges another £80 million in aid to help Ukraine deal with humanitarian crisis
http://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukraine-uk-pledges-another-80million-in-aid-to-help-ukraine-deal-with-humanitarian-crisis

Giving planes in itself is not of much use as they will not be comparable with Ukrainian command and control systems.
There will be real difficulties in integrating off the shelf aircraft that are not compatible with those systems.

[2tallbill]

Giving planes in itself is not of much use as they will not be comparable with Ukrainian command and control systems.
There will be real difficulties in integrating off the shelf aircraft that are not compatible with those systems.

I don't know all that is involved in integrating aircraft, other than installing
the proper IFF, (identification friend or foe) but Poland is talking about sending
MIG29's which is the majority of what the Ukrainian Air Force consists of.
Their pilots should be very familiar with the flying and fighting characteristics
of the plane. There could be a bunch of other stuff that I don't know about.

I am not an expert on this. My son is, but I haven't talked to him yet.

[Chelseaboy]

Former USA National Security Advisor H.R.McMaster just been on Sky News saying NATO should go in now and enforce a no fly  zone over Ukraine,,,he said NATO will need to get involved eventually anyway,so do it now before more Ukrainians are killed in air strikes against them,


He also said NATO need to enforce a Marine-free zone too.


When asked about people quaking in fear about Putin's threat to use Nukes he said well he would wouldn't he,his economy is tanking,his military has proved to be only good for bombing civilians,so all he has left is Nukes..but people shouldn't be in fear of his threats and need to stand up to him,because if we don't, and Russia wins, the war WILL spread,

[BC]

Giving planes in itself is not of much use as they will not be comparable with Ukrainian command and control systems.
There will be real difficulties in integrating off the shelf aircraft that are not compatible with those systems.

UA pilots would be familiar with, and qualified to fly the Polish MIGs.  M-16's or such would then be sent to Poland, along with training etc.

[John Gaunt]

UA pilots would be familiar with, and qualified to fly the Polish MIGs.  M-16's or such would then be sent to Poland, along with training etc.

They will be able to fly the planes, of course. Like I said, it’s the command and control with UKR systems that won’t be integrated.
Without those they might as well be flying blind.

[Bee Farmer]

First of all, the Russian supply lines are being severely pulverized. A whole column of fuel trucks was blown up today heading for Kyiv.
Without fuel their armour and supporting vehicles grind to a halt.

Their supply lines will be vulnerable and without supplies they will be quite vulnerable.

You bring up a good point about logistics.  It's been said that infantry wins battles, but logistics wins wars.

Russia's logistics supply chain is the railroad network.  From what I understand, as soon as Russia started invading, Ukraine blew up every single rail line coming into Ukraine from Russia and Belarus.  That halted the advance of the supply lines using rails, and requires using trucks to transport supplies farther.  (And supposedly, Russia is lacking in trucks, and trucks are not armored, which makes them easy to disable with rifles.)  Supposedly, Russia can only operate about 100 miles maximum in advance of their supply depot before they start running out of supplies.

Russia recently started camouflaging fuel trucks to look like regular supply trucks because they were being targeted so badly.

[Bee Farmer]

I don't know what to advise on this . . . as I don't want a surrender, but also want the killing to stop.

I do pray that if war stops, that USA and all other nations continue existing sanctions on Russia until Russia provides the funds to rebuild all the structures and infrastructure that has been destroyed by them in Ukraine.

What is to keep Ukraine from suing Russia in international court for damages?  I think there is a court in NY City that hears those cases.  Supposedly, about half of Russia's $630 billion has been frozen in other countries by sanctions. 

If Ukraine wins in court (and I don't see how they wouldn't) they can access those frozen, sanctioned funds.  That's $300 billion they could potentially get their hands on.  Suddenly, we're not talking about chump change anymore.  That's over $6500 for every man, woman, and child in Ukraine.  (and considering that the average net worth is like $2K...)

The bigger problem will be keeping Ukrainian government officials from trying to embezzle that $300 billion.

[Bee Farmer]

UA pilots would be familiar with, and qualified to fly the Polish MIGs.  M-16's or such would then be sent to Poland, along with training etc.

Poland already has some F-16's.  From what I understand, the F-16's Poland has have older avionics.  The US uses newer avionics in our F-16's, and the question is if the US is willing to allow Poland access to our newer and higher technology, or if we will have to give them F-16's with the older technology.

[Boethius]

What is to keep Ukraine from suing Russia in international court for damages?  I think there is a court in NY City that hears those cases.  Supposedly, about half of Russia's $630 billion has been frozen in other countries by sanctions. 

If Ukraine wins in court (and I don't see how they wouldn't) they can access those frozen, sanctioned funds.  That's $300 billion they could potentially get their hands on.  Suddenly, we're not talking about chump change anymore.  That's over $6500 for every man, woman, and child in Ukraine.  (and considering that the average net worth is like $2K...)

The bigger problem will be keeping Ukrainian government officials from trying to embezzle that $300 billion.

Isn't most of that money the cash/assets of oligarchs, as opposed to the Russian government?

[Bee Farmer]

Isn't most of that money the cash/assets of oligarchs, as opposed to the Russian government?

No, the $630 billion is supposed to be Russia's foreign currency reserves.  About half of that was held in banks in other countries.  That $300 billion has been frozen.

Location of Russia's $630 Billion foreign currency reserves
China 17.7% (not sanctioned)
France 15.6%
Japan 12.8%
Germany 12.2%
USA 8.5%
BIS/IMF 6.4%
UK 5.8%
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-russian-central-bank-is-running-out-of-options/

Personally, I don't think Russia will ever see that $300 billion.  Or if they get it back, it will be in 50 years.  Look how long we held onto money we sanctioned from Iran back in 1979.  Is some still held, or did it all get given back to Iran a few years ago?

[Patagonie]

You bring up a good point about logistics.  It's been said that infantry wins battles, but logistics wins wars.

Russia's logistics supply chain is the railroad network.  From what I understand, as soon as Russia started invading, Ukraine blew up every single rail line coming into Ukraine from Russia and Belarus.  That halted the advance of the supply lines using rails, and requires using trucks to transport supplies farther.  (And supposedly, Russia is lacking in trucks, and trucks are not armored, which makes them easy to disable with rifles.)  Supposedly, Russia can only operate about 100 miles maximum in advance of their supply depot before they start running out of supplies.

Russia recently started camouflaging fuel trucks to look like regular supply trucks because they were being targeted so badly.

All is correct

[Patagonie]

No, the $630 billion is supposed to be Russia's foreign currency reserves.  About half of that was held in banks in other countries.  That $300 billion has been frozen.

Location of Russia's $630 Billion foreign currency reserves
China 17.7% (not sanctioned)
France 15.6%
Japan 12.8%
Germany 12.2%
USA 8.5%
BIS/IMF 6.4%
UK 5.8%
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-russian-central-bank-is-running-out-of-options/

Personally, I don't think Russia will ever see that $300 billion.  Or if they get it back, it will be in 50 years.  Look how long we held onto money we sanctioned from Iran back in 1979.  Is some still held, or did it all get given back to Iran a few years ago?

I explain to you what they have just invented a few days ago.
Every currency earned in $ or euro for any Russian citizen living in Russia should be converted into roubles for 80% of the total amount.Is it not brilliant? 
 
So you understand why more and more people want to leave. And guess who is earning in $ or euros?
 

[Bee Farmer]

And according to google, the Ruble is currently trading at 139 rubles to the USD.

[Patagonie]

No, the demands are because internal Russian analysis is telling them they can't win in the long term.  Putin believed the Ukrainian population would capitulate, that his troops would just march in and take the country.  He never expected resistance.  That's why there is this "face saving" measure. 


I don't think Ukraine should agree to neutrality.  I think Ukraine should have good relations with Russia, but given everything that's happened since 2014, that will take at least a generation.


Russia has planted landmines in civilian escape corridors, shot fleeing civilians (women and children), dropped cluster bombs in civilian areas of Kharkiv, and lost control of at least one city they had taken.  They can't go to a "greater scale" unless they are willing to lose thousands of soldiers to do so.

This is what I have also explained.

[Patagonie]

And according to google, the Ruble is currently trading at 139 rubles to the USD.

In some Russian banks it could reach 159

[Patagonie]

No, the $630 billion is supposed to be Russia's foreign currency reserves.  About half of that was held in banks in other countries.  That $300 billion has been frozen.

Location of Russia's $630 Billion foreign currency reserves
China 17.7% (not sanctioned)
France 15.6%
Japan 12.8%
Germany 12.2%
USA 8.5%
BIS/IMF 6.4%
UK 5.8%
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-russian-central-bank-is-running-out-of-options/

Personally, I don't think Russia will ever see that $300 billion.  Or if they get it back, it will be in 50 years.  Look how long we held onto money we sanctioned from Iran back in 1979.  Is some still held, or did it all get given back to Iran a few years ago?

$300 billion, most of them could finance the reconstruction of Ukraine.
How can Russia lead winning negotiations with this money already seized, an economy that will soon collapse, and an incoming military defeat???

[Trenchcoat]

Mr Armchair General, there are several flaws in your plagiarised summary.
First of all, the Russian supply lines are being severely pulverized. A whole column of fuel trucks was blown up today heading for Kyiv.
Without fuel their armour and supporting vehicles grind to a halt.

So the Russians will not take the city without a fight.
Say in the long run they overrun the defending forces and take Kyiv along with other major population centres, then we will see a long war of attrition.
The Russians will control the major cities but there will be the vast swathes of country in between over which they will have no control. Their supply lines will be vulnerable and without supplies they will be quite vulnerable.
Partisan warfare at its best.

Carry on.

Look at what is happening to Mariupol Gaunty, they've got it surrounded and are bombing it. What do you think they are going to do with Kyiv? Odds on the same, surrounded it, halt armour outside the city surrounding it and bomb the hell out of it. A large city is going to run out of food quick, the Russians can sit there all day long, everyday. Once out of food people are going to want to give up the fight, even soldiers, they will see that it is hopeless and give up. At the present the only way out of the city is south, if I were there I would go south quickly while there is still a chance.

Tommorow, Zelensky is going to address the House of Commons by video link. Apparently it is going to be yet another attempt to rope us in to intervening militarily, No Fly Zones, etc. He will probably state that Kyiv is now surrounded by Russian forces and we are Kyiv's only hope, etc, etc. I just hope to god that MP's aren't moved by the moment and lose all sense and throw us into WWIII. That is what Zelensky wants, he doesn't care about us and will be happy to see us suffering on the end of missiles also. Had the people of Ukraine gone with a experienced politician rather than a TV Actor/Comedian they might not be where they are at the moment.

To my mind Zelensky would be better of agreeing to Russia's demands and saving their citizens more pointless suffering. Better to get it over with quickly that way than see everything smashed to bits and many more lives lost. Ukraine isn't going to win this one, they're allowing their cities to becomes surrounded and choked the life out off. If Ukraine can't keep their supply lines open its pretty much it for them.

http://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-to-make-historic-address-to-british-mps-tomorrow-12560206

[Bee Farmer]

$300 billion, most of them could finance the reconstruction of Ukraine.
How can Russia lead winning negotiations with this money already seized, an economy that will soon collapse, and an incoming military defeat???

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

It is no certainty that Russia faces an oncoming military defeat. Yes, they have had some setbacks, but they could turn things around if they really wanted to.

The Ukrainians are already running out of food and water in some cities, like Mariupol.  As soon as the Russians take control of the train lines out of Kyiv (or bomb them) the flow of supplies coming into Kyiv are going to be reduced greatly.

Keep in mind the Russians killed 4.5 million Ukrainians during the Holodomor.  Loss of life will not bother them.  I wouldn't put it past the Russians to start using biological or chemical weapons in Ukraine.  (What do they have to lose?)

Their economy is facing some setbacks, but it won't fall apart completely as long as they can still sell oil and gas, and China remains a trading partner.  The elites are still going to live large, which is all that really matters to them.  I suspect they would rather see the Russian populace living in huts again like peasants before the elites will give up power.

The seized money doesn't really matter in the overall scheme of things.  It has a $1.5 trillion GDP.  That's 20% of GDP...2 months production.  (Yes, it might hurt if 2 months salary was taken from your bank account, but you would still survive.)  They sell $500 million in oil and gas every day.  In less than 2 years, they can replace the $300 billion that was frozen.

Ukraine's GDP was $150 billion a year.  In 2 years, it will produce $300 billion in goods and services.

If Russia subjugates Ukraine...in 10 years, will the sanctions remain?  How about 20 years?  Russia is in this for the long haul.  Every year, there are more people on this planet.  Every year, they need more oil and gas and resources that Russia has.

Do you think that Russia will end up a hermit kingdom like North Korea?  The rest of the world wants their resources too much.

The real question is, how badly does Russia want Ukraine?