2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[BC]

We discussed NY yesterday.  There the Democrat leadership policies directly caused the quarantine of the frail to be broken, killing thousands of elderly.  The frail need to be protected such as what you are doing for your mother.

The chart in your article shows infection cases are rising for several countries in Europe.  I hope the rise is abated.  The world does not need another wave.  Why no data for Italy, UK and Germany.  BC has shown how Italy cases have decline to very low levels.

Gator,

In Germany and Italy, more daily infections are occurring, but still low in terms of R_t and very low positivity.  A good portion is imported from tourists, immigrants etc and additional measures are being mandated i.e. in Italy, masking in public areas, at work, testing at airport arrivals and closure of discotheques/organized commercial parties. Levels are still well within T&T - testing and tracing capabilities. Of late, daily testing has also increased 20-30%  I also hope rates do not go up further and am still confident we can say 'it's under control'.



'Frail' folks can comprise a large portion of the population.  Elderly, pre-existing conditions, etc.  Have to remember that approx 60% of Americans have at least one pre-existing chronic condition and 40% more than one.  I guess this comprises elderly.  Many of these like yourself, I assume, are already being careful/minimizing contact as the risk factors are now well known.  Age, obesity, diabetes, chronic lung, heart and other organ conditions, transplant patients, sickle cell - the number adds up quickly.  Is interesting that half the population of Sweden are considered overweight or obese.

[msmob]

I read your article.  It acknowledges that an open economy would create more cases of infection, and hence more deaths, confined mostly to the frail.  Many scientists have advocated rigid quarantining of the frail (what Joe Biden is doing for himself) rather than quarantining the whole population (i. e., economic lockdown).   Makes sense to me. 

We discussed NY yesterday.  There the Democrat leadership policies directly caused the quarantine of the frail to be broken, killing thousands of elderly.  The frail need to be protected such as what you are doing for your mother.

The chart in your article shows infection cases are rising for several countries in Europe.  I hope the rise is abated.  The world does not need another wave.  Why no data for Italy, UK and Germany.  BC has shown how Italy cases have decline to very low levels.

Hi Phil,

Sweden's economy bombed by over eight percent in the last qtr .. Finland's - 'locked down' just over 5%

"The economy of Finland also outperformed its larger neighbour in the second quarter, despite a tougher lockdown. Finland’s gross domestic product shrank by 5% against an 8.6% contraction in Sweden from the previous three-month period."

Sweden, which has stood out among European countries for its low-key approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic, has recorded its highest tally of deaths in the first half of 2020 for 150 years, the Statistics Office said.

Those with antibodies present is less than 1 in 10 in Stockholm ...

'Herd immunity' is a very danger wet dream

LOTs of people died needlessly due to a failed experiment and Freedom of Info requests now appear to be showing those 'advocating herd immunity's' emails are 'missing' .... 

Thing is ..they sent them to fellow epidemiologists in Finland ..

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/19/sweden-records-highest-death-tally-in-150-years-in-first-half-of-2020


UK info :

http://tinyurl.com/yxtmuv9n

In 'my' region the figure re new cases is only 3 per 100k

In places like Manchester it is 10 to 15 times that

The UK is busy making those from nations with over 20 per 100k quarantine, but the Rep of IRL - which has been quarantining mainland UK citizens, is over the UK threshold ....

[GQBlues]

...We discussed NY yesterday.  There the Democrat leadership policies directly caused the quarantine of the frail to be broken, killing thousands of elderly.  The frail need to be protected such as what you are doing for your mother...

Numbers can be mystifying sometimes. Numbers never lie. Macabre as it may be, statistics in this current global pandemic is all over the spectrum. I checked the US last night and it was interesting to me the correlation of # of tests conducted to date (+73 million), % of positive cases (5.7 M; 7.8%), and the CFR (176K; 3.9%). Using 325 million as our population, the mortality rate of this virus currently sits @ 0.054%.

Look at these same numeric correlations against other countries, which respective cases really differs from each other, is at the least very compelling.

Here's a another perspective that I was looking for last night but can't seem to find the current tally. If we start January 2020 and use August as an end date, you have about 240 days (30/mo avg). Pre-COVID, the US was averaging between 2.5- 2.8 million deaths/yr; that's +/- 6,800-7,600 deaths everyday.

Covid, or COVID-causal deaths per day is about 736/day since January 1st. Approximately 10% of our *normal* per day death rate. Heart disease kills 650K of us every year; 1,700+ everyday. More than twice COVID's rate.

But Americans still consume HUGE amount of Big Macs everyday No lockdown on that puppy. No distancing from burger joints, and certainly it doesn't require blowing up our economy to smithereens to curb the disease, much less our way of life.

Faux Pas's post above concerning our reaction to this virus' virulence seem to support these numbers to me. That is, if you agree *numbers don't lie* and want to look at this *scientifically*, statistically speaking.

[GQBlues]

double. #!#% What's blowing up these pages?

[msmob]

Gator

The latest UK numbers .. NOT good..

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-england-infections-nhs-test-and-trace-cases-a9679966.html

Coronavirus: Infection rate in England up by almost a third in one week
The numbers of positive tests has been rising since July

A plan to take Ma 'up north' to visit family is defo off ... (

[BillyB]

There was a time NYC lost 600 people per day out of a population of 8.4 million. That would mean one out of every 14,000 people would die each day, one out of every 467 people would die each month or 1 out of every 39 people living in NYC would die each year and that's a rate with action taken to slow it down. Things would increase exponentially if left unchecked. COVID-19 would easy be any nation's number one killer if no action was taken against it.

http://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

[rwd123]

I am seeing a number of charts indicating that while cases are increasing illnesses are not (to the same degree).

Rate of mortality has been largely linked to demographics (e.g. NYC is demographically the oldest city in the USA).

This "second wave" cheerleading is mostly driven by fearmongering for political purposes/power.

[BillyB]

Protecting the most vulnerable and not overloading hospitals which means everybody in serious or critical condition get the best care helps lower case fatality rate. Regardless of the fear mongering of the left, Trump is still taking action against the virus while trying to prevent the economy from crashing.

[BC]

This "second wave" cheerleading is mostly driven by fearmongering for political purposes/power.

RWD123

Let's test your hypothesis on the graph below.  How do you interpret the results shown for country X and what is your conclusion?  You can then guess which country the graphs represent.

[GQBlues]

I am seeing a number of charts indicating that while cases are increasing illnesses are not (to the same degree).

Rate of mortality has been largely linked to demographics (e.g. NYC is demographically the oldest city in the USA).

This "second wave" cheerleading is mostly driven by fearmongering for political purposes/power.

That almost defined what I did yesterday. Apparently John Hopkins is conducting the same daily reporting of the statistical correlation surrounding the virulence/fatality/care efficiency relationship of this pandemic.

The eye-opener is, there's so much bluster about which country is doing 'better' to prevent/contain the infection and which country is laxed and doomed. Which country is [blah, blah, blah as though this is a silly competition.

For nations that adopted strict lockdowns, in reality, at least so far, actually have a higher mortality rate AND alarmingly ( one critical aspect I believe is the most important to pay attention to) is which country displays the worst rate of recovery. Is a person's chances of survival depends upon the care it receives in its healthcare facilities? Belgium literally tops all categories. I don't know why that is...

http://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Side Note: How does mortality differ across countries?

One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality. Countries throughout the world have reported very different case fatality ratios – the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases.

Differences in mortality numbers can be caused by:

-Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.

-Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.

-Characteristics of the healthcare system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.

-Other factors, many of which remain unknown. ~

A lot data is also now available for what is termed 'Excess Mortality Rate', while not quite perfect science due to variance on incoming information, is still interesting to see, too.

[msmob]

GQB

why do you constantly post tosh ?

Sweden had TEN times the mortality rate of Finland and it's economy contracted by over 8% as opposed to 5% ...

[GQBlues]

GQB

why do you constantly post tosh ?

Sweden had TEN times the mortality rate of Finland and it's economy contracted by over 8% as opposed to 5% ...

Well, gee...I'm sure Guam is faring so much better than Sweden, too...Not sure why you didn't make that point.

The data is there, dude. Read it and weep. If you can't stand to face reality, it's of no concern to anyone.

[msmob]

Well, gee...I'm sure Guam is faring so much better than Sweden, too...Not sure why you didn't make that point.

The data is there, dude. Read it and weep. If you can't stand to face reality, it's of no concern to anyone.

Ah your 'data'.. like the efficacy of HCQ ...

[Gator]

RWD123

Let's test your hypothesis on the graph below.  How do you interpret the results shown for country X and what is your conclusion?  You can then guess which country the graphs represent.

What do I see?

A plot of the CFR would show a significant decline. 

Yes, daily new cases in July and August have increased at rates higher than seen in the Spring.    More cases means more deaths and indeed they have increased too, albeit at much lower rates than seen in the Spring (i. e., infected people are dying at a much lower rate).

And your chart now shows the start of a downtick in both new cases and deaths.   

[GQBlues]

Ah your 'data'.. like the efficacy of HCQ ...

Reality can be a b!tch to some, Not least of which, apparently, to you.

[msmob]

Reality can be a b!tch to some, Not least of which, apparently, to you.

The reality is your very own FDA ..

[GQBlues]

The reality is your very own FDA ..

Contact page, baby.

Here's another 'reality': Confirmed Positive; Deaths, CFR, Mortality

UK: 324,203; 41,489; 12.8%; 62.40
Sweden: 85,810; 5,805; 6.8%; 57.01

[msmob]

[Compares UK with Sweden ....?]

Only one of those nations has two major hub airports, cruise liner departure points ..  The UK govt. was daft enough to try the 'Swedish way' ..but 'wised up'..too late for many

You made a daft point - I simply busted you with one example..

I could have mentioned Norway or Denmark...all neighbouring Nordic nations to Sweden ..

So...

FAIL on the death front

FAIL on the 'herd immunity' front


FAIL on the economic front

Now, ( once more ) FDA v GCB's HenryFord outlier ... 

[GQBlues]

Que, sera, sera... Reality bites again!

[BC]

What do I see?

A plot of the CFR would show a significant decline. 

Yes, daily new cases in July and August have increased at rates higher than seen in the Spring.    More cases means more deaths and indeed they have increased too, albeit at much lower rates than seen in the Spring (i. e., infected people are dying at a much lower rate).

And your chart now shows the start of a downtick in both new cases and deaths.

Remember that in the Spring, such levels of testing as we have today were not possible by a long shot.  I suggest levels of infection may have been much higher back then, we just could not see it.

In any case, the hypothesis presented by RWD123 does not fit, which was the point of my reply. 

Yes, levels of deaths and death are heading lower, but I highly doubt they will do much more than plateau at a lower level before the next 'events' that again cause an uptick.

20,000 more deaths are expected the next three weeks, which will also push the deaths per million rate higher than Italy.

[fathertime]

That was an excellent post Gator. But let's break it all down a bit further. It's how I've been looking at it from it's inception anyway. The way we have handled all virus outbreaks and specifically corona virus outbreaks in the past was in fact herd immunity. No government mandated lock downs, no social distancing (which btw is unproven or even tested to actually stop or wean the spread of a virus. The idea was stolen from a kid at a science fair. look it up) no masks and no rushing to develop a vaccine. If you got it, you got it and most people did. With most viruses there was always at least some death associated with it. Some viruses had many deaths some had less. Herd immunity eventually caught up with the virus. Usually in a few months the death count declined. In the course of 12 months it was near dissipated altogether. Why the special attention for covid19?

It is a known fact that many of the corona viruses that have plagued the populations in the last 100 years and covid19 included is a man made virus. Covid 19 did not come from the Wuhan wet market. We know this now, why didn't someone tell us this from the beginning? The virus didn't morph from a bat in a cave to human. Nope, this virus was developed in a lab in Wuhan China.

Notwithstanding is the fact that our very own Dr. Fauci has been involved with this same specific lab for a number of years. Dr Fauci insured that the lab was the recipient of grants of 1.5 million dollars over what appears to be a 6 year period that was actually signed off by Obama himself. Why would Fauci and Obama have such an interest in this lab in Wuhan China?

One would think this particular virus has been politicized. But why this one? One could also easily come to the conclusion that the virus was developed for this purpose. Perhaps developed as a weapon or at least a tool. The globalists at Devos 2020 warned us this would be happening this year. How did they know? Well they probably heard it from Bill Gates and our own Dr. Fauci who, has been telling it to the world for the last several years. Those two happen to also be business partners.

The bottom line is this, the world wide death rate for covid19 is still .04%. Much less than previous viruses and influenza but, we have done so much more to combat it except what we used to combat all the others, herd immunity. The question all us layman need to be asking is why?

Jeepers!   So China, Fauci, and Gates are all in on this...sorry that isn't believable.  These grand conspiracies' that all the nations of the world would have to be in on just don't pass the mustard. 

All that said, i'm starting to also question the necessity of all the nations have been doing, although generally I'm not following protocols myself. 

Fathertime! 

[BillyB]

 Yulia Tymoshenko's got it.

http://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/former-ukrainian-pm-yulia-tymoshenko-tests-positive-for-covid-19

[Faux Pas]

Jeepers!   So China, Fauci, and Gates are all in on this...sorry that isn't believable.  These grand conspiracies' that all the nations of the world would have to be in on just don't pass the mustard. 

All that said, i'm starting to also question the necessity of all the nations have been doing, although generally I'm not following protocols myself. 

Fathertime!

Surprising as you impress me as a rabid follower for just about anything. A few salient facts the entire world has seemingly totally ignored:

The virus is real the panic is not

Positive cases of infections in 99.6 of the infected is only an illness. Not a death sentence

We likely will all experience it before it is no longer a threat.

Protecting the vulnerable does not require shutting down the 99.6%

[fathertime]

Surprising as you impress me as a rabid follower for just about anything.

Interesting, because that is how you come across to me.   

A few salient facts the entire world has seemingly totally ignored:

The virus is real the panic is not

Positive cases of infections in 99.6 of the infected is only an illness. Not a death sentence

We likely will all experience it before it is no longer a threat.

Protecting the vulnerable does not require shutting down the 99.6%

this does appear to be the case...
I'd be curious to see how many more deaths and illnesses we would have had by now had we (The US) conducted business as usual. 

Fathertime! 

[msmob]

Interesting, because that is how you come across to me.   
this does appear to be the case...
I'd be curious to see how many more deaths and illnesses we would have had by now had we (The US) conducted business as usual. 

Fathertime!

For those STILL thinking the old weren't worth saving ..

1/ Sweden killed 10 times more than her immediate neighbours, Norway and Finland and six times more than Denmark

2/ Sweden's economy contacted by over eight percent in QTR 2 ... Finland just over 5

3/ Who thinks removing 5-8 eight years off a life is 'worth it' ?

4/ We see in nations like Belarus what happens to a 'leader' who tried to ignore the virus ..