The Russian Invasion of Ukraine-The Real Nazis

[DaveNY]

My use of the word "downfall" is overblown, yet Russia can create waves.  Just consider the international economic effects of Soros moves to devalue the Thai Baht in 1997. 

Why do you think Russia interfered in the 2016 election? It's probably the worst thing they could do. Russia couldn't launch sanctions against the EU and/or the US without doing more damage to themselves than to others.

What good is foreign revenue if your businesses and banks are cutoff from the international banking transaction system?  I do not think you understand the huge economic impact on Russia of Krimster's aggressive idea to remove Russia from SWIFT.   

Not many sanctions worse than removing SWIFT.  I suppose Russia could create an alternative transaction system for domestic transactions (ATMs), yet it would never be as effective.     

Gator I live in NYC there's been talk of cutting Russia off from SWIFT since before Russia invaded Ukraine or shoot down MH17. Where do you think Krimster got the idea? He didn't think of it on his own.

Russia is developing alternatives to SWIFT. Doing deals for oil/gas instead of cash. Making sure credit card clearing and data centers are in Russia so transactions don't have to be cleared from outside Russia.

Problems with Russia distancing itself from the EU and allying itself with China are many. For instance relying on Chinese banks for financing mega projects means Russia is at the mercy of the Chinese government. IOW Putin now must kiss Chinese butts instead of EU butts to get financing and Xi Jinping is far less forgiving than EU leaders.

According to my wife, it's already happening.

Same thing happened prior to the 2012 Russian presidential election. Even in the streets of Moscow there was talk of how weak Putin was. Putin turned up the heat and arrested a bunch of political rivals/enemies and stuffed the ballot boxes and won reelection. Then continued his strongman routine.

Putin knows if he is replaced he will be imprisoned (or worse).  IMO he can not let it deteriorate that far.  So I assert he will do something dramatic to prevent the SWIFT removal or something even more dramatic if that fails.

Just my opinion.  No guarantee implied.

I agree. I can't see Putin being forced out and allowed to retire to Sochi and spend his days writing his memoirs and gardening. If there's a coup he'll be killed. I doubt the EU or China would offer him asylum.

[Boethius]

Since I haven't heard the Western Ukrainian argument presented well, I am sold on the Russian point of view for at least the time being and I do believe that the coup was just NGO neo Nazi stooges that would gladly sell out their neighbors for a few kopeks. But that is simply an opinion

First, most of those on Maidan were from Central Ukraine, not Western Ukraine.  I know that as a fact because my better half was in Kyiv during Maidan.  He has more Russian than Ukrainian blood, and spoke to protesters.  He was not a supporter of Maidan, because he knew nothing would change.  He told me from the earliest days that a "Maidan" would occur because oligarchs were losing power, and needed to change the regime to preserve their wealth.  I think there is a significant amount of evidence he was correct, although the end result was blunted because of the war.  He also stated the US government pushed the narrative, and he told me immediately after Yanukovych fled Ukraine, that Poroshenko would be the next Ukrainian president (before he'd declared an interest) because "That is what the Americans want."

Second, the number of "neo Nazis" in Ukraine is miniscule.  On a per capita basis, it is dwarfed by the neo Nazi movement in the US.  So, these so called "Nazis" (a Russian fabrication, ironically, sold mainly by their own fascist nationalists) could not have orchestrated Maidan.   Svoboda is a far right nationalist party, but all of its leadership are former communist nomenklatura.  Were they living in Russia, they'd be like your ex wife's family, awarded by the state.  They are created primarily as a means to gain power, and from there, material wealth.  Nothing more.  If "nationalism" did not sell, and multiculturalism did, their members would all be multiculturalists.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[Boethius]

“you gloss over how Poroshenko allowed Ukraine to be 'divvied up' in areas run by Oligarchs”

don’t attribute this political patronage system to Poroshenko, it was there before he was born, indeed its roots go back centuries, google “boyar”,
the current Ukrainian system of regional clans is nothing more than the traditional hierarchical

You need a history lesson.  Boyars were not uniformly wealthy.  Moreover, they only achieved that status if they did something for the state.  Really, they were no different from feudal aristocracy anywhere in Europe. 

The current oligarchs are a product of a corrupt communist system, not the distant past.  Western Ukraine is far more corrupt now than is Central Ukraine, and that region had little corruption during the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or even in the interwar period.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[msmob]

My use of the word "downfall" is overblown, yet Russia can create waves.  Just consider the international economic effects of Soros moves to devalue the Thai Baht in 1997. 

Or Sterling ! ...

Not many sanctions worse than removing SWIFT.  I suppose Russia could create an alternative transaction system for domestic transactions (ATMs), yet it would never be as effective.     

They already have an alternative card payment system that would continue to work...

Putin knows if he is replaced he will be imprisoned (or worse).  IMO he can not let it deteriorate that far.  So I assert he will do something dramatic to prevent the SWIFT removal or something even more dramatic if that fails.

Just my opinion.  No guarantee implied.

VVP keeps moving about the structures of those who MIGHT try to challenge him ....Russia is like a huge franchise system, now ... Franchises are removed or new controller put in- if they get too noisy, greedy or inefficient ...... 

It even works with the Church ....constant restructuring ....

VVP has turned Russia into a pyramid selling empire....     they tend to collapse from within ...

Also my opinion

[GenMish]

First, most of those on Maidan were from Central Ukraine, not Western Ukraine.  I know that as a fact because my better half was in Kyiv during Maidan.  He has more Russian than Ukrainian blood, and spoke to protesters.  He was not a supporter of Maidan, because he knew nothing would change.  He told me from the earliest days that a "Maidan" would occur because oligarchs were losing power, and needed to change the regime to preserve their wealth.  I think there is a significant amount of evidence he was correct, although the end result was blunted because of the war.  He also stated the US government pushed the narrative, and he told me immediately after Yanukovych fled Ukraine, that Poroshenko would be the next Ukrainian president (before he'd declared an interest) because "That is what the Americans want."

Second, the number of "neo Nazis" in Ukraine is miniscule.  On a per capita basis, it is dwarfed by the neo Nazi movement in the US.  So, these so called "Nazis" (a Russian fabrication, ironically, sold mainly by their own fascist nationalists) could not have orchestrated Maidan.   Svoboda is a far right nationalist party, but all of its leadership are former communist nomenklatura.  Were they living in Russia, they'd be like your ex wife's family, awarded by the state.  They are created primarily as a means to gain power, and from there, material wealth.  Nothing more.  If "nationalism" did not sell, and multiculturalism did, their members would all be multiculturalists.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

I will have to disagree, the Social National Party of Ukraine members were the instrumental stooges needed by Western NGOs for the success of the coup, they shamelessly wore their neo Nazi colors while praising their anti Semitic anti Russian heritage. Changing their name, and buying off some ex communists hardly legitimizes the group. The Prostitutes on the streets of Kiev are only outdone by those officials that were bought off to support the coup. And that's the difference between my exs family in Russia, and those that benefitted in Ukraine. Those in my family were awarded for ability and merit, in Ukraine they were awarded for harlotry. I like the point Gator made, an invasion would take the ruble to 100 to 1, and Russia still might do it. Why? They are people of merit not harlotry, they have already easily survived 70 to 1. Russians wont back down, and Ukraine is just screwing themselves and their future by listening to the West and not reaching some agreement with Moscow

btw- At first I thought your statement about Neo Nazis in the USA was a ridiculous comparison, as in the USA they are just stupid kids with shaved heads with some low success white trash thrown in the mix. But, there is an observation to be made. The US voters would never allow their ideology in government, Ukraines voters embraced it, at least those in the West and Central(cough cough)

[JayH]

It is not a "western" Ukrainian "argument"  --it is Ukraine as a whole . Being sold on Russian lies and propaganda ( and comments from stupid insulated Russians) with the information available today -- plus the nonsense of a coup and the Nazi allegation--   all makes you a full on 100% idiotic moron.

Yep- you just confirmed  you are 200%  idiot.

[krimster2]

JayH, no need to use "outback" bushman language here!!!

after Paul Manafort engineered yanukovych's election
the people realized yanukovych was controlled by Putin so they had a revolution!!!
then Paul Manafort engineered Trump's election
then the people realized Trump was controlled by Putin so they had a revolution!!!

notice a pattern?

[Boethius]

I will have to disagree, the Social National Party of Ukraine members were the instrumental stooges needed by Western NGOs for the success of the coup, they shamelessly wore their neo Nazi colors while praising their anti Semitic anti Russian heritage.

No, that is untrue.  Svoboda is an ultra nationalist party, I don't disagree with that. But it is not anti Semitic.  Vitaly Portnikov, a Ukrainian Jewish journalist, has written extensively about Svoboda.  One of his conclusions is the party is not anti Semitic.  Furthermore, Svoboda was not "instrumental" in Maidan.   

Perhaps you should read more on the issue before making such broad and inaccurate statements.  You may also read about what Moscow did in Western Ukraine during Soviet times to understand why this reactionary party had any popularity, and why nationalism is resurgent in all FSU nations, including Russia, where actual anti Semites have the backing of the president.

Changing their name, and buying off some ex communists hardly legitimizes the group.

There was no "buying off" of ex communists.  You obviously understand virtually nothing of the nature of post Soviet societies.

The Prostitutes on the streets of Kiev are only outdone by those officials that were bought off to support the coup.

There was no coup.  Yanukovych was in the process of being impeached.  Given his Party of Regions held the balance of power in the very Rada that impeached Yanukovych, the narrative of a coup is pretty difficult to swallow.

And that's the difference between my exs family in Russia, and those that benefitted in Ukraine. Those in my family were awarded for ability and merit, in Ukraine they were awarded for harlotry

BWAHAHAHA.  Right . . . I guess that everyone in Russia who just happened to be a member of the former nomenklatura has managed to become an oligarch by merit, or has managed to run the country solely on their brains.

It's difficult to reach an agreement with a country that invades you.

btw- At first I thought your statement about Neo Nazis in the USA was a ridiculous comparison, as in the USA they are just stupid kids with shaved heads with some low success white trash thrown in the mix. But, there is an observation to be made. The US voters would never allow their ideology in government, Ukraines voters embraced it, at least those in the West and Central(cough cough)

Again I am laughing.  You have a racist xenophobe in the WH, his former A-G is known as a racist who relished the thought of locking up illegal immigrant children (where thousands have been sexually abused) away from their parents, his supporters are emboldened enough to hold white supremacist rallies which Trump himself refuses to condemn, and you think Americans hold some moral superiority.

Go have a look at who is elected in Western Ukraine to the Rada.  Even were I to accept your assertions, which I don't, Svoboda went from 37 seats as a reaction to Yanukovych's division of Ukraine on ethnic lines (krimster has pointed it out - under Manafort's "guidance", Yanukovych ran a campaign pitting the vote rich Russian speaking east against ethnic Ukrainians) to 6 seats in the 2014 election.  Can you understand why that happened? 

The Pew Centre did a survey in 2016 in Central and Eastern Europe on attitudes toward Jews  That survey found that anti Semitism was lower in Ukraine than virtually any country in Europe.  Given ts post Maidan PM was Jewish, its current PM is Jewish, and its president has a Jewish father, and this has not lead to all  these rabid anti Semites to protest, let alone start a war on the streets, the idea that Ukrainians are rabid anti Semites is laughable.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[msmob]

Russians are not keeping quiet!   

YES , they are

1/ Do you see a change in policy ?  NO

2/ Do you see opposition demonstrations ?  NOT Often and the rules to hold them / create an opposition party are farcical

3/ What you DO see is creeping legislation that erodes the constitution "no censorship" ....

 

[DaveNY]

YES , they are

1/ Do you see a change in policy ?  NO

The Russian government writes law in Russia. As far as I know there's no mechanism to enact legislation sponsored by Russian citizens into law.

2/ Do you see opposition demonstrations ?  NOT Often and the rules to hold them / create an opposition party are farcical

In Moscow there is opposition demonstrations all the time during elections. These demonstrations aren't "seen" because most/almost all of the major media in Russia is either literally owned and operated by the state or by those friendly to the state.

Another factor in the lack or limited opposition is how demonstrations are suppressed by the state. When I lived in Moscow I witnessed the OMON and other Russian law enforcement groups operating. Locals I was with told me that if the OMON and other such groups arrive I should leave immediately. You don't want to be in the area. These groups do not care if you're a tourist or local they will rough up anyone in the area.

3/ What you DO see is creeping legislation that erodes the constitution "no censorship" ....

Another reason why you don't "see" demonstrations taking place. Putin is taking lessons from the Chinese government and not just enacting legislation to limit access to the Internet but also physically blocking the Internet.

[Gator]

  Russians are not keeping quiet!   

YES , they are....What you DO see is creeping legislation that erodes the constitution "no censorship" ....

I convey my wife's observations of ordinary Russians, not a political analysis. 

For years and years ordinary Russians have generally been supportive of Putin.   She was surprised during her recent trip to Russia to observe that this is no longer the case with many of her friends as well as some strangers she met in public (taxi drivers).   

Perhaps my wife's observations are tainted by an important personal change: she now considers America, not Russia, as her country.  She was never a fan of Putin, yet for the 13 years I have known her, she thought Putin's leadership most important given Russia's potential for instability.  She doesn't feel Putin needs to be replaced;  instead, he needs to make changes benefiting the ordinary Russian. 

[Belvis]

I agree. I can't see Putin being forced out and allowed to retire to Sochi and spend his days writing his memoirs and gardening. If there's a coup he'll be killed. I doubt the EU or China would offer him asylum.

Sounds funny about the coup or seeking asylum in EU/China. Seems like  you have very limited valid information   who is Mr. Putin, how he will act and his potential to strike back.
His recent words give some rough idea about: "We would go to heaven, they would simply die."

[Boethius]

I will have to disagree,.

If you want to know what students in the genetically anti Semitic Western Ukraine believed, read this -

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-radical-skepticism-of-ukraines-students


This is a map of the Pew Research Center findings I mentioned above -



Google was used for the link to the article and the map.

[JayH]

The Russian propaganda factories  activities have been exposed --this story again highlighting how dangerous  they can be.
Of note here is the timeframe-- when Russia invaded Ukraine and was trying to destabilise as a pre cursor to a wider invasion . On this forum --there was plenty of evidence of teh BS being swallowed and repeated-in fact argued by people still here today-- and of course-the many trolls passing through at that time.

The methodolgy used on Ukraine by the Russian troll factories has proven effective in creating mayhem in the politics of supposedly sophisticated western countries to this day.

The timeframe of the research was from January 2010 to May 2018, though the majority of tweets were tweeted after 2014, particularly in 2014-2015

How Russian “troll factory” tried to influence Ukraine’s agenda: analysis of 755,000 tweets
 
What is proven

For a little over 8 years, in the database of the “troll factory” VoxUkraine found 774,957 tweets about Ukraine generated by 1,369 accounts. Before the annexation of Crimea, twitter bots showed almost no activity. The accounts began to tweet more actively at the end of 2014. The real “twitter-storm” was on 18 July 2014 — the day after the MH17 crash. On this day, the accounts tweeted over 44,000 messages, and on the next day over 25,000.



• HYBRID WAR

In October 2018, Twitter published a database of over 9 million tweets that, according to the social network, is affiliated with the Russian “Internet Research Agency.” Ukrainian think tank VoxUkraine identified more than 750,000 tweets related to Ukraine by keywords, and analyzed how the Russian “troll factory” has been working against Ukraine; and who, how and what has been tweeted.
How tweets were selected
The data published by Twitter contains information on 3,667 accounts associated with the Russian Internet Research Agency. The accounts, since closed, generated a total of over nine million tweets.

To determine which tweets are related to Ukraine, VoxCheck used a number of keywords such as “Donbas,” “South-East,” “Boeing,” “Bandera,” “fascism,” “Kyiv,” “revolution,” “Maidan”, “Crimea”, “Poroshenko”, “Civil War”, “MH-17” and others. Overall, 774,957 tweets contained these keywords. They were generated by 1,369 accounts. 95% of the smallest accounts remained anonymous due to a decision taken by Twitter. Among the top 5% were both pages of media (“The Bulletin of Moscow,” “The Bulletin of St. Petersburg” (a total of 24 regional “Newspapers”), “Federal News Agency,” “News of Kyiv”) and also private pages and burlesque pages such as “Maxim Dementyev,” “Ramzan Kadyrov” (parody page), “Lavrov’s muesli,” “Cold War 2.0.”

Timeline of activity

The timeframe of the research was from January 2010 to May 2018, though the majority of tweets were tweeted after 2014, particularly in 2014-2015.


http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/03/14/how-russian-troll-factory-tried-to-influence-ukraines-agenda-analysis-of-755000-tweets/

[GenMish]

Jay, Both sides use propaganda. Look at the ridiculous article posted right before yours. Ukraine has 1/3rd the anti Semitism as Russia and a 1/4 of that in Romania? ROTFLMAO

Only naïve westerners would believe that NGO propaganda. Its like RT publishing 5% racists in Mississippi but 20% in Alabama and Arkansas

[SANDRO43]

Ukraine puts Al Bano on its black list

(http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2019/03/11/ukraine-puts-al-bano-on-its-black-list_02dfd820-c253-4705-aa1e-19152a3412b9.html)

[ML]

Ukraine puts Al Bano on its black list

Is he from Albania ?

[SANDRO43]

Is he from Albania?

No, from Cellino San Marco in Puglie, just opposite Albania. He's 75, but always dyes his hair jet black .

[jone]

No, from Cellino San Marco in Puglie, just opposite Albania. He's 75, but always dyes his hair jet black .

Ahh, so that's how he made their black list.

[Boethius]

Jay, Both sides use propaganda. Look at the ridiculous article posted right before yours. Ukraine has 1/3rd the anti Semitism as Russia and a 1/4 of that in Romania? ROTFLMAO

Only naïve westerners would believe that NGO propaganda. Its like RT publishing 5% racists in Mississippi but 20% in Alabama and Arkansas

I didn’t realize an independent American think tank was in the pocket of Ukrainian nationalists.

Yeah, those horrid Ukrainians are all anti Semites!  Somehow they missed the fact their current PM and his predecessor were Jewish, two of the three candidates for the presidency are Jewish (the third has a Jewish father, so not Jewish by Jewish law, but Jewish enough for anti Semites), both his powerful former chief of staff and his current chief if staff are Jewish, the mayor of  Kharkiv is Jewish, and Dnipropetrovsk is run by a Jewish mafia.

Jew hatred goes back a long way in Russia-the Pale of Settlement, the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, attacks on Jews after the collapse of the USSR (my masseuse emigrated from St. Petersburg, where he had a very comfortable life, because of growing anti Semitism), and several attacks on Jews praying at synagogues over the years.

My grandfather was a non religious Jew, so perhaps I’m more sensitive to this issue than others.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[JayH]

The events  this day changed the course of history. Ukrainians turned the tide -- and people all over Ukraine realised they could stand up to Russia.
The fact that  it is/was even investigated is a plus for Ukraine -- despite the substantial imperfections. By way of contrast- also in the news today was the granting of Russian citizenship (  protection) of 2 instigators Ukraine wants to face justice.

It is five years since the riots and fire in Odesa on 2 May 2014, in which 48 people lost their lives.  The events that triggered the riots were probably part of a plan to see Odesa plunge into the same bloody violence as the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, a plan involving Russian President Vladimir Putin’s senior adviser, Sergei Glazyev.  The plan failed, and Russia turned instead to creating a toxic propaganda narrative about a fictitious ‘massacre’.  It is a narrative that Russia has spent a lot of money fostering, but one that the Ukrainian authorities have failed to properly counter through their unwillingness to adequately investigate and ensure accountability for the events that day.


Russia’s most toxic lies about a fictitious ‘Odesa Massacre’


There was no ‘massacre’ on 2 May 2014, but there were very bad mistakes made.  There is also evidence of individuals within the police force or prosecutor’s service having helped those who should have faced the most serious of charges to escape, been involved in providing weapons, etc.

The above-mentioned IAP report noted evidence suggesting some police complicity, as well as omissions, and the fatal delay of the emergency services, and advised that the investigation needed to be carried out by a body independent of the Interior Ministry. Those recommendations were ignored.

While some of the officials fled almost immediately, it seems likely that Volodymyr Bodelan was allowed to ‘disappear’ in 2016.  At the time of the tragedy, he was the head of the emergency services who took more than 40 minutes to arrive, despite repeated and increasingly urgent calls from people in the building or nearby.  There is now evident obstruction of the trial of his subordinates as well.


http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1556716320