The Struggle For Ukraine

[Boethius]

This is a nice article on Donbas residents.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/18/they-have-come-to-destroy-us-ukrainians-on-the-frontline-in-donbas

[Chelseaboy]

I think there is a lot of over optimism here.

I suspect the Russians have ability to produce a lot of new missiles, tanks and all sorts of military equipment.

Sure I understand the bit about chips being embargoed, but I think they have a lot of those in inventory also.

Remember that in WWII the Russians (Soviets) moved entire plants over to the Urals and beyond to continue production.

I am sure they know how to solve current production problems also.

Bloomberg.


Putin says sanctions cause "Colossol " problems in Russian tech industry.Russian Dictator Vladimir Putin told officials during a video conference on strategic development goals that Russia is facing "colossal problems " in the high-tech sector due to sanctions.


Missiles come under high-tech.Sounds like you're more confident about the orcs solving their rapidly declining precision missile stock than he is.


There's a reason why the orcs are now having to use S-300 SAM's for surface to surface attacks.

[krimster2]

Putin is pretty much betting that the U.S. midterm elections will undermine Biden and that by 2024, the United States will be in a great big mess!
and after that, support for Ukraine collapses, in the same way it was edited out of the 2016 Republican Platform.  Look at ONLY Republicans who VOTED AGAINST Ukraine lend-lease

the giant European energy companies mostly in Germany and France
are putting political pressure on their countries politicians to keep them in favor of pro-Russian fossil fuels

just follow the money

[BC]

Bloomberg.


Putin says sanctions cause "Colossol " problems in Russian tech industry.Russian Dictator Vladimir Putin told officials during a video conference on strategic development goals that Russia is facing "colossal problems " in the high-tech sector due to sanctions.


Missiles come under high-tech.Sounds like you're more confident about the orcs solving their rapidly declining precision missile stock than he is.


There's a reason why the orcs are now having to use S-300 SAM's for surface to surface attacks.

Chelseaboy,

I'm with ML that RU can maintain the production of weapons that kill.  At what level of production, I don't know, but best to not underestimate.  Accuracy doesn't seem to be of much interest to them.  Chips are easily smuggled as well http://www.reuters.com/world/how-military-technology-reaches-russia-breach-us-export-controls-2022-04-29/  Even if they can't get the chips, there are ways to adapt using chips from some common household electronic items like computers, gaming units or even modern hifi, all readily available on e-bay and such.

[Chelseaboy]

BC,


     For sure the orcs can use chips from common household products.


They've been doing that with their military aircraft...that's why an orc cargo plane and two SU-25 orc fighter jets all fell out of the sky in Russia within the space of a week around a month ago...one of the SU-25's hitting power cables on the way down.


Since those mishaps the orc airforce has been noticeable by it's relative absence in Ukraine.


Around 25% of the Iskander missiles being fired from Belgorad are landing in....Belgorad.


I wonder why ?


I'm sure the orcs will be happy to fire an Iskander missile with a nuclear warhead attached.knowing it has a chip from a gaming unit  added


Who knows where it mind end up ?


What a future game masterpiece that would be " Fire an orc nuclear missile from Belgorad and watch it hit Moscow..just like the orcs did ".


I'm sure it would be a best-seller ..except in Russia 

[Chelseaboy]

Putin is pretty much betting that the U.S. midterm elections will undermine Biden and that by 2024, the United States will be in a great big mess!
and after that, support for Ukraine collapses, in the same way it was edited out of the 2016 Republican Platform.  Look at ONLY Republicans who VOTED AGAINST Ukraine lend-lease

the giant European energy companies mostly in Germany and France
are putting political pressure on their countries politicians to keep them in favor of pro-Russian fossil fuels

just follow the money

Krim,
 
      I'm sure he's betting on things going in his favour before 2024.


He's going to use energy ,and in particular Gas ,as a weapon this coming winter.


Will the European public hold-up in their support for Ukraine if they're freezing and Ukraine won't make concessions to Russia about the land the orcs have stolen ?


You can just see angry German and French mums phoning into TV and Radio phone-in's "My poor kids have to go to bed at 4pm it's so cold, all because those Ukrainians won't let Russia keep the Donbas.Why should my kids suffer because of those pesky Ukrainians " ?


Those same dopey mums won't think about what will happen in the future to their "poor kids" if Russia keeps the Donbas.


I reckon Ukraine is aware of this and this has accelerated their attempt to get Kherson back before winter sets in.

[Chelseaboy]

The orcs shot down one of their own SU-34's whilst trying to hit a HIMARS missile in the Alchevsk city area in occupied eastern Ukraine.


Yes they really are that incompetent.


It's only there superior numbers that have kept them in the fight so far.



The pilot was captured by Ukrainians,just to rub salt into the wound.

[rwd123]

Holy shit... and there goes Europe! Hope you have stocked up on warm blankets Pat!

http://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-declares-force-majeure-will-halt-gas-flows-germany-indefinitely

[Boethius]

Don’t crow so quickly.

http://www.bluemountainsgazette.com.au/story/7824752/europe-inks-energy-deals-sidesteps-russia/?cs=5461

[rwd123]

Don’t crow so quickly.

http://www.bluemountainsgazette.com.au/story/7824752/europe-inks-energy-deals-sidesteps-russia/?cs=5461

Who is crowing? This is MAJOR news. Russia has effectively declared war on Germany. The gloves are off. This is a MASSIVE escalation of the conflict.

There's apparently a major announcement coming out of Russia in a few days too. In other words - further escalation is on the cards. We are effectively in WW3 and things just got a lot hotter (and colder).

[BC]

RWD123

It is only a matter of time until Europe re-orients sources and bolsters other forms of energy, which is actually a good thing.  Putin has only accelerated de-coupling RU from the world economy, relegated to selling RU energy at a considerable discount.  China is not stupid, and neither is India and other countries.

In the history books, this will be a small blip in the grand scheme of things.

Sure, Putin is on a destructive path, trying to do anything that adversely affects countries not aligned with them.  Like a man with a noose around his neck, he will wiggle the wildest towards the end, knowing that he tied his own Hangman's knot.

Time is not on his side.

It is not about how much economic pain the EU can afford but more about how long RU citizens and allies will agree to be pushed back into the dark ages.

[Bee Farmer]

Holy shit... and there goes Europe! Hope you have stocked up on warm blankets Pat!

http://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-declares-force-majeure-will-halt-gas-flows-germany-indefinitely

Germany/Europe doesn't need warm blankets.  They need tissues for all the green/left wing crybabies.

The only reason that Germany turned to Russia for gas supplies is because after Fukushima, Germany mothballed all its nuclear power plants. (with the eventual goal of dismantling them, but closing a reactor will take decades.)  If Germany wants energy, within 3-6 months, they can have their nuclear plants back online.

However, using nuclear energy doesn't fit the narrative with all the green left wingers.  If push comes to shove, I think we will see Germany bring their nuclear plants back online.

[Patagonie]

Holy shit... and there goes Europe! Hope you have stocked up on warm blankets Pat!

http://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-declares-force-majeure-will-halt-gas-flows-germany-indefinitely

 
Energies prices' are multiplying, and the next winter will be worse. That's the concern with inflation in all the EU zone.
Of course, since February every country tries to find out new partners.
 
Personally, I have two ways to heat my house gas and electricity but I probably will make some modifications to minimize my consumption next month, before October. 

[ML]

Putin says sanctions cause "Colossol " problems in Russian tech industry.  Russian Dictator Vladimir Putin told officials during a video conference on strategic development goals that Russia is facing "colossal problems " in the high-tech sector due to sanctions.


Sounds like you're [ML]more confident about the orcs solving their rapidly declining precision missile stock than he is.

I don't know for sure, of course, but good chance that Putler is trying to get the west to let down its own effort . . . by thinking Russia is on the ropes.

Rope-a-dope process.

[BC]

Germany/Europe doesn't need warm blankets.  They need tissues for all the green/left wing crybabies.

The only reason that Germany turned to Russia for gas supplies is because after Fukushima, Germany mothballed all its nuclear power plants. (with the eventual goal of dismantling them, but closing a reactor will take decades.)  If Germany wants energy, within 3-6 months, they can have their nuclear plants back online.

However, using nuclear energy doesn't fit the narrative with all the green left wingers.  If push comes to shove, I think we will see Germany bring their nuclear plants back online.

Bee Farmer,

Your political views are clouding your vision.

Germany decided to wind down their nuclear plants after Chernobyl, and not Fukushima.  They have a few coal plants that were mothballed and may be pulled back into service. 

Their renewable energy generation is among the highest in the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany#/media/File:Energiemix_Deutschland.svg

Yes, industry and a good portion of households use gas for heating, but already programs are underway to reduce that usage.  No one will freeze in their homes, but yes turning down thermostats will be mandated.

The damage will remain mainly economic, but even that beats WWIII.  They are buckling up.

http://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/germanys-summer-package-to-focus-on-heating-sector-revamp/

Germany is better prepared than the US would be in the same circumstances.  Like RU, the US is simply lucky to be sitting on a lot of fossil fuels.

[Chelseaboy]

Ukrainians becoming very bullish now...they must read my posts on here. 


Their Deputy Minister of Defence Gavrilov said that Russia must give up Crimea if it wants to continue existing as a state.


In the meantime HIMARS have hit the bridge connecting Kherson to Crimea.

[BC]

In the meantime HIMARS have hit the bridge connecting Kherson to Crimea.

Probably target practice and warning for all those that cross.

[Boethius]

Who is crowing? This is MAJOR news. Russia has effectively declared war on Germany. The gloves are off. This is a MASSIVE escalation of the conflict.

There's apparently a major announcement coming out of Russia in a few days too. In other words - further escalation is on the cards. We are effectively in WW3 and things just got a lot hotter (and colder).

Talk about hyperbole. 

Germany was already moving to cutting all Russian gas by this winter.  So I wouldn't exactly call this a "massive" escalation.

We are not in WW3.  Russia can make a lot of trouble, thanks to its natural resources, but really, it's a bit player on the world stage, with a leader (and populace) with a massive inferiority complex.

[Chelseaboy]

An orc SU-35 shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile today ,whilst attempting to attack Ukrainian ground attack aircraft this afternoon in the Nova Kakhovka area of Kherson province.


Da Da Da Another one bites the dust 

[BC]

Germany was already moving to cutting all Russian gas by this winter.  So I wouldn't exactly call this a "massive" escalation.

IIRC was for drawing down oil from RU, with replacing RU gas taking a bit longer.  I may be wrong, though.  In any case, it's a short-term issue for the EU but will remain a long-term problem for RU.  Prices will remain high for a couple of years until supplies balance out again and more renewables take over.

As for the remainder of your post, spot on.

[ML]

Some have posted that China and India will be able to buy raw  materials including oil and gas from Russia at a discount.

Why a discount?

In my view, China and India has the need to buy virtually all the oil and gas available in the world.

All Russia needs to do, is stop the flow to China and India for awhile, and the price to them would move up to market price.

[rwd123]

Energies prices' are multiplying, and the next winter will be worse. That's the concern with inflation in all the EU zone.

Bingo! This is not about cold houses, it's about the collapse of Europe -
 the asynchronous economic warfare in response to sanctions.

The EU relies on German industry. It's about to be hammered into oblivion. Will not be surprised if the German government falls in the next six months.

The Euro Zone is essentially bankrupt. It takes a form of cheque kiting between governments to keep it afloat. How is Deutsche Bank going to hold up with waves of insolvencies?

[Bee Farmer]

Bee Farmer,

Your political views are clouding your vision.

Germany decided to wind down their nuclear plants after Chernobyl, and not Fukushima.  They have a few coal plants that were mothballed and may be pulled back into service. 

Nonsense BS.

They did not make any meaningful steps to closing down the power plants until after Fukushima. (They closed a reactor in 2003, and one in 2005. That's immaterial.)

Following Fukushima, Germany has permanently shut down eight of its 17 reactors and pledged to close the rest by the end of 2022.[2] In late 2021 all but three of the remaining German nuclear power plants were shut down.
As of 2022, Italy is the only country that has permanently closed all of its formerly functioning nuclear plants, with Germany phasing out the remaining 3 plants by the end of the year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_phase-out

[rwd123]

Bingo! This is not about cold houses, it's about the collapse of Europe -
 the asynchronous economic warfare in response to sanctions.

Apparently energy prices are going to rise in (parts of) Poland by 300%! That is going to destroy manufacturing and household budgets. Europe is in BIG trouble. Good luck funding a foreign war when the peasants are revolting. Governments will need to fund a civil war first.

[northkape]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany#/media/File:Energiemix_Deutschland.svg

IIRC was for drawing down oil from RU, with replacing RU gas taking a bit longer.  I may be wrong, though.  In any case, it's a short-term issue for the EU but will remain a long-term problem for RU.  Prices will remain high for a couple of years until supplies balance out again and more renewables take over.

Pure Hogwash
Wiki is for electricity, not energy,,,,, majority of gas is used / burned directly, not converted to electricity. The new green "Energiewende" has been a complete disaster for Germany. Making them more dependent on gas than ever before. Building / installing new windmills has almost completely halted / stopped in the last two years. For a reason, it doesn't work as expected. Renewable energy in Germany last year amounts to between 15-18 % of total energy consumption, depending on how it is calculated. The new gas pipeline NorthStream2 that was set to open when Russia invaded, was supposed to more than double the amount of gas to Europe for the next 10-20 years.

This disaster is seriously hurting us here in Norway also. As we are connected to the madness, by newly built transfer cables, and idiotic contracts, that makes our electricity price dependent on European prices.(stupid political decisions that didn't foresee possible consequences) In previous years, electricity here was very cheap, as we have an abundance of clean hydro electricity. Even letting enormous amount of water bypass the turbines every year.   

This is an auto translate from yesterdays financial news:

Scenario # 1: A full reboot
In this scenario, Gazprom will resume the flow of natural gas over the next few days at almost full capacity. This in turn could lead to a rally in US and European equities and help strengthen the euro.

Scenario No. 2: Partial reboot
The flow of natural gas is resumed, but with reduced volumes. It depends on how much the gas is reduced by. If it is reduced to 40 percent of capacity, it is not good, but it is even worse with only 20 percent. This will mean that the markets will be tense while waiting for when and if the flow of gas returns in full.

Scenario No. 3: No reboot, but positive signs
In this scenario, the flow of gas to Europe will not resume this week, but there are still signs that it will happen in the not too distant future. This will cause equities and the euro to fall, while credit and bank equities will falter.

Scenario # 4: No reboot and no sign
There will be no gas to Europe from Russia through Nord Stream this week, nor will there be any indication of when anything will happen. This is the worst case scenario. Then stocks will fall globally, the euro will fall and credit will be deferred. Bank shares are particularly vulnerable in this case.

Predicts recession and stock plunge
Should there be a worst-case scenario, where gas remains switched off, Deutsche Bank expects that the rationing of gas will lead to a German GDP fall of between 5 and 6 percent in 2023. BNP Paribas believes a complete halt in gas supplies from Russia will lead until Euro Stoxx 50 falls 20 percent or more, with several quarters of European recession.
While the Swiss major bank UBS predicts that if Russia closes all pipelines to Europe, and not just Nord Stream, it could send the euro to 0.90 against the dollar, the Stoxx 600 index will fall another 20 percent and corporate revenues will fall by 15 percent.
The last bank CNBC spoke to was JPMorgan Chase. The Americans believe that if the Russians close the gas supplies to Europe, the movements in European corporate bonds will be greater than during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020.