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Author Topic: The Struggle For Ukraine  (Read 155751 times)

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Online Trenchcoat

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2175 on: June 18, 2022, 12:13:45 PM »
Extra! Extra!  Read all about it!!!

Topol M missiles, Russia has about 80 locked and loaded on Eww-Cry-Ena
some are MIRVed
some nukes have been converted to EMPs

here's a pic of Pootin on a recent factory tour where the Topols are made, there's one in the background
he got a presentation from the factory on the readiness and reliability
and a separate brifing on what would happen to Ukraine AFTER the first nuclear attack since Nagasiki
and how Pootin gave the General Staff no other option, it was either THIS or DEFEAT
and ain't nobody got time for defeat!

That's interesting info Krimster. I guess we always new that there were no certainties with how this Ukraine conflict ends up, that Russia facing a conventional armed defeat may move to more deadly unconventional missile strikes and/or chemical weapons.

Reading this article today:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a40232488/russia-throws-half-century-old-tanks-into-ukraine-invasion/

It basically informs us that at the moment it's a war of attrition with conventional weapons but that it's a war of a attrition that is has a quick level of attrition. Russia has a big load of tanks but most of them are museum pieces too old and rusted and broken down beyond repair. They've gone through most of their T-72's and are now down to any T-62's that still move. The T-62s they started to deploy around Kherson on the 5th June and many were easily taken out straight away. My guess is that Russia is seeing it as there is no pint in having tank crews without tanks so might as well use the tank crews up even if pretty futility than have them sat around useless without tanks - bad for them but they seem little more than target practice now and a slow up the enemy and use up a bit of their arsenal by Russia. Ukraine of course has been running low on armaments but more is coming in. So Russia perhaps hoping to overwhelm them in an attrition battle and win that way.

New weapons coming into Ukraine will of course mean that Ukraine will overcome it's attrition issue and win against Russia. As you say Russia losing is something that it's going to find very hard, probably too hard to take. As I've queried for a while now what will Russia do once it's conventional forces are spent, their tanks are out, their artillery soon likely to be destroyed with mobile long range missiles armaments we are giving Ukraine. That only leaves them to be pushed back and destroyed or use unconventional weapons.

So your info here suggests they might well just do that. I'm not sure whether they will affix nuclear warheads. The problem with nukes us not just radioactive fallout spreading far and wide as I understand it but also a lot of thermo nuclear activity can cause global warming and potentially make the planet unliveable if there is enough of it. Anyway I tend to agree with CB there's no way we can back down to this playground bully if he pulls these out otherwise he'll pull the same stunt over and over and we'll end up with a massive problem anyway. We're just going to have to sit tight and battle on and if he fires these just fight on anyway as far as possible nothing else to do really as I see it.
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Offline krimster2

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2176 on: June 18, 2022, 12:34:59 PM »
always expect, the unexpected...

Offline Chelseaboy

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2177 on: June 18, 2022, 01:31:58 PM »
always expect, the unexpected...


I agree,and the way Putler was talking during the week i'd say if he does use Nukes there is as much chance he'll use them on the USA as in Ukraine.


Prevailing winds in Ukraine would blow the radiation fallout into Russia for a start,and if any of the fallout blew into neighbouring countries like Poland or Romania that would constitute an attack on NATO triggering World War 3


The way he said that Russia is going to be THE World power now, and that the end of the USA is coming, suggests he may well attack the USA very soon and he knows he'd lose using conventional weapons,so WMD's would be the way to go.


His speech followed the member of Duma's comments, urging Russia to strike the USA, on Russian State TV  i posted here previously.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2022, 01:43:14 PM by Chelseaboy »
Just saying it like it is.

Offline Boethius

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2178 on: June 18, 2022, 01:49:38 PM »
Attacking the US would be a death knell for Russia.

Unlike Russia, I suspect the US maintains its nuclear arsenal. Its army is also more effective.
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Offline Chelseaboy

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2179 on: June 18, 2022, 01:54:53 PM »
Attacking the US would be a death knell for Russia.

Unlike Russia, I suspect the US maintains its nuclear arsenal. Its army is also more effective.


Any sane person knows that.


Unfortunately Putler is now clearly insane...or as Ben Wallace said "he's gone full tonto ".
Just saying it like it is.

Offline ML

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2180 on: June 18, 2022, 02:37:20 PM »
Remember that under Budapest . . . US, UK and France are obligated to do something if Ukraine attacked by nuclear.

Actually the only thing they are required to do is take the matter to the UN.  But I suspect that would lead to more very quickly.
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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2181 on: June 18, 2022, 03:30:35 PM »
I think Russia has likely got a lot of problems in store, some of which goes back to what Krim said a while back that its revenue from oil & gas won't go on forever. Apart from any decline in reserves renewables and other forms of energy are starting to come in now as more viable alternatives. Oil & gas they can only get so much from and then the Oligarchs take the bulk of the profit for themselves and use a lit of it to invest abroad, the Russian people don't see a lit of benefit from that. So Russia was heading to a precarious state where greater poverty could have been on the horizon. That in turn breeds decline and a collapsing society. A collapsing society is of course not good for those at the top or anyone in Russia really.

The fact that Russia hasn't been able to replace their tanks with anything new since the fall of the USSR is quite telling. Basically they are not at all as powerful as the headline military stats that they put out. It looks very much like they are sitting on a military that was getting old and very backward and obsolete. To my mind it looks like they tried to have a stab at getting back their old territories of the Soviet era before their army lost its ability completely to mount an invasion against its neighbours. Basically Russia can't manage to mobilize or update an army anywhere near to the scale of the Soviet Union. It's basically using the armaments built up during Soviet times to try and regain territories that might help them regenerate it army and economy. That's proving to be a strategy that may turn out to be a bit of a grasp. It's old Soviet armaments are basically old rusted museum pieces for the most part and Russia has probably left it to the last minute, probably too late to make a successful take over of Ukraine.

All they really have left is the heavy missile strike to level cities with whatever they've got. That's basically a losers tactic as they won't likely get what they seek, resources, manufacturing base, crop yield. They get a wasteland as a alternative to losing completely. That Russia hasn't actually declared war on Ukraine but declared a peacekeeping mission I would say they would be better off calling it a day and declaring their 'peacekeeping' over.

I can't see things ending well in Russia either way, with their conventional army becoming increasingly disarmed and their military weakness becoming weak how long before the different regions of the Russian Federation chose to de-federate as their is little overall military to stop them just rusted out old tanks that can't move anywhere.
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Offline ML

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2182 on: June 18, 2022, 04:24:43 PM »
I wish it were true what some here write about the various weaknesses of Russia.

But I really can't believe it.

Quite aside from Nukes, I think Russia has a formidable military.

Add to that the Russian group mindset of being able to withstand terrible pain and hardship (maybe even liking to have pain) . . .

So perhaps an over puffing up here of Ukraine prospects and an undercounting of Russian prospects.

I hope I am wrong regarding my above assessment.
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Offline Grumpy

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Offline Boethius

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2184 on: June 18, 2022, 05:55:18 PM »
I wish it were true what some here write about the various weaknesses of Russia.

But I really can't believe it.

Quite aside from Nukes, I think Russia has a formidable military.

Add to that the Russian group mindset of being able to withstand terrible pain and hardship (maybe even liking to have pain) . . .

So perhaps an over puffing up here of Ukraine prospects and an undercounting of Russian prospects.

I hope I am wrong regarding my above assessment.

Were their military formidable, theyd be in Kyiv by now. Despite their brutal tactics, which disregard civilians completely, theyre still not ruling even 20% of the country.
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Offline ML

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2185 on: June 18, 2022, 08:06:01 PM »
Were their military formidable, theyd be in Kyiv by now.

They easily could have been in Kyiv.  They were not beaten, they made a tactical decision to withdraw.

They could have also reduced Kyiv to ruins like Mariupol.

I believe they deliberately wanted to save Kyiv and they want to save Odesa so that those two would be intact as the capitals of two of the regions that Russia recently displayed in their 'new' map of the future Ukraine.

But if Ukraine leaders and the west keeps crowing about how Russia was beaten and forced to withdraw from outside of Kyiv . . . Russia might just come back and use long range artillery to destroy Kyiv out of spite, despite their desire to keep Kyiv intact.
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Offline BC

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2186 on: June 19, 2022, 02:28:37 AM »
There are 100 solutions to your dilemma(s). If the Ukrainians were too
stupid to send less than a hundred men to artillery/missile/HIMARS school
then they should give Eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea to Russia.

Have you considered the capacity of the firing range where they will be trained?  I'd say managing and training X crews at one time, not only with targeting and firing but maintenance and support as well is a pretty serious undertaking.  Where did you hear there would only be 100 men trained?  How big is a HIMARS crew?  How many men will be involved in the support of these 6 million buck systems?

Quote
None of the artillery at the front is stored in warehouses at the front. If you
place the systems 20 meters apart
then ONE HIMARS school graduate can
operate a dozen systems training others as they go.

You can't tell cruise missiles approximately where targets are. You need
precise coordinates. The HIMARS ARE self propelled and will probably move
after every barrage.
The greedy Russian traitors would have to be ON the
missile crew to give away their position. You don't have to worry about
security in a foxhole from the people sharing the foxhole.

Aside from contradicting yourself, ever hear of drones?  Russia has no reconnaissance assets?  Sure, single moving units would be hard to spot, but your 20 lined up in a row would present a huge target, at risk of wiping them all out at one time.

Quote
Storing HIMARS away from the front when they need them at the front is
pure looney tunes.

Sure, but rearming these moving units will be a logistics challenge considering that most of the 600 to 1000-mile resupply pipeline which under current circumstances represents a 3-4 day trip, has to be hidden, akin to smuggling.  Let's say a commercial truck can transport reload packages right next to the unit.  They will need a forklift to get them safely off the truck to the ground to be reloaded.  I highly doubt they can be loaded direct truck to firing unit. Commercial trucks are too high, and can't navigate farm fields and rough terrain. Sure don't want to be dropping thousands of pounds of solid propellant and HE or?  How many of these vehicles will be needed to supply a half dozen HIMARS that can fire their load in one minute?



I think you are vastly underestimating the challenges involved 2tall.

A number of inland storage depots will be needed.  The closer these depots are to the front, the more vulnerable they are to detection and destruction.

US and other countries are sending numbers of units that can be effectively managed and supplied.

« Last Edit: June 19, 2022, 02:30:21 AM by BC »

Offline BC

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2187 on: June 19, 2022, 02:45:05 AM »
Were their military formidable, theyd be in Kyiv by now.

Indeed.  If the goal was only Donbas, they may well have taken it by now.  Instead, they wasted their resources.

Offline rwd123

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2188 on: June 19, 2022, 03:21:52 AM »
I wish it were true what some here write about the various weaknesses of Russia.

But I really can't believe it.
Now now, with such language you'll be branded an 'orc'.

US 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates are now above 6%, while Russia's central bank just cut interest rates below pre-invasion levels. RUB is strongest against the USD since 2018. Russia is posting massive surpluses and apparently raising military spending by 20%. How big is the USA deficit these days?

Things are even worse in Europe, no wonder Bojo the Clown loves going to Kyiv. Any reason to escape the impending malaise in the UK. The misery index there is the highest in decades. Russia is pounding the West economically, or more appropriate the West is pounding the West economically. The writing is on the wall. Western governments need to make a u-turn out of Ukraine to save their own imploding economies.

Wars are expensive. Guess who is in a position to finance one?

Listening to Putin speak in StP it's clear he's in empire mode. He's thinking in terms of decades not months. This is not Putin cheerleading, it's simply reading the tea leaves... and have a lovely pride month. Somebody's been watching Pat's dating Ukraine channel.  :P




Offline BC

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2189 on: June 19, 2022, 07:41:57 AM »
Now now, with such language you'll be branded an 'orc'.

I doubt it.

Quote
US 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates are now above 6%, while Russia's central bank just cut interest rates below pre-invasion levels. RUB is strongest against the USD since 2018. Russia is posting massive surpluses and apparently raising military spending by 20%. How big is the USA deficit these days?

Little, to do with the RU/UA situation.  Just a bit of gas on the fire already started by throwing free money into the economy for too long.  Unemployment, the largest misery factor is at historic lows in EU, US and UK.  As long as folks can buy needed essentials we'll get through this.  Of course, the defense industry is booming. 

Find anyone that will give you USD for Rubles? Let me know as I have some change left over from a prior trip.

The ONLY thing keeping RU afloat and providing fiscal surpluses is its natural resources created millions of years ago are still in demand and not due to being smarter or better than the next man. Chew on that dino bone for a bit. As for trade surpluses, well if there is little or no trade also an artificial value.

Quote
Things are even worse in Europe, no wonder Bojo the Clown loves going to Kyiv. Any reason to escape the impending malaise in the UK. The misery index there is the highest in decades. Russia is pounding the West economically, or more appropriate the West is pounding the West economically. The writing is on the wall. Western governments need to make a u-turn out of Ukraine to save their own imploding economies.

Sure, some hardships have resulted but no one I know is blaming UA.

Quote
Wars are expensive. Guess who is in a position to finance one?

Good causes should be supported.  The west is gaining a great deal of knowledge that will help ensure RU can never try such stunts with NATO/EU countries and expect to win.  To put monetary value into perspective, the west spent 10 billion on a space telescope to probe the beginning of time and space.  50 billion or more on fusion technology.

Quote
Listening to Putin speak in StP it's clear he's in empire mode. He's thinking in terms of decades not months. This is not Putin cheerleading, it's simply reading the tea leaves... and have a lovely pride month. Somebody's been watching Pat's dating Ukraine channel.  :P

The world will re-align more forcefully towards other energy sources.  If anything should be a net win for Mother Earth.  As far as fuel for mobility, I'd still enjoy paying US prices.  Much of the value of oil and gas is based on speculation anyway.  Oil companies are reaping windfall profits and governments as well with higher tax revenue.

Putin's power relies on RU people believing his lies.  From recent history, we know lies have short legs. 

Offline krimster2

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2190 on: June 19, 2022, 08:37:42 AM »
Rwd123,

why be a
Russian sock puppet, when instead you coulda gone LONG on petroleum futures during the first covid peak, and used all the margins your broker was willing to extend and BUY, BUY at its lowest point

you know why you didnt
cuz your ancestors got caught picking peoples pockets near picadilly and were sent to a penal colony
to shear sheep

thats WHY!!!

my ancestors were WAY TO SMART to get caught, so we got to choose to live where we wanted to

clearly, one too many Fosters for you me cobber!
You must be one LONELY DINGO out there in the outback
no sheilas for ye arghhhhh!!!
cuz YANKS GET ALL THE UKRAINIAN POOTY-TANG!!!
and that just leaves all you WALTZING MATILDAS SOL!!!

LOL, and on top of that, your toilettes all flush in the WRONG direction!!!
no wonder you're so messed up
you do EVERYTHING this way and then wonder why your life is so FOOKED UP!!!
ain't gonna be a Ukrainian sheila who has time for you!
sad...



« Last Edit: June 19, 2022, 08:49:51 AM by krimster2 »

Offline ML

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2191 on: June 19, 2022, 10:14:46 AM »
Now now, with such language you'll be branded an 'orc'.

That would be a pretty silly branding as I am a strong supporter of Ukraine.
And interestingly, in our group of Ukraine families here in our university town, I am viewed by the Ukrainians as the most extreme supporter.  I have voiced idea of rounding up the Russians here and doing . . .

However support for Ukraine serves no  purpose when it involves blowing smoke up each other's ______ by repeating silliness about Russian weaknesses.

As I said, Russia could have (and still can) reduced Kyiv to rubble like they did in Mariupol if Putin really wanted to.

Now it's true that as time marches on and available Russian troops and equipment become more depleted (and if supplies are sent to Ukraine in ever increasing amounts), then I believe that Russia really will be weakened and Ukraine can prevail.

So very critical is time as always.  How much time will elapse before our supplies to Ukraine overwhelms the supplies and troops available to Putin.

Can the Ukraine military last the required time waiting period ??

And for wife and me:  Will her closest relative survive that long ?
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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2192 on: June 19, 2022, 11:20:13 AM »
I wish it were true what some here write about the various weaknesses of Russia.

But I really can't believe it.

Quite aside from Nukes, I think Russia has a formidable military.

Add to that the Russian group mindset of being able to withstand terrible pain and hardship (maybe even liking to have pain) . . .

So perhaps an over puffing up here of Ukraine prospects and an undercounting of Russian prospects.

I hope I am wrong regarding my above assessment.

I think your assessment is probably correct were it still the 1980s ML. A lot has changed since then, I'm sure back in your Navy days Soviet MIG's flying around buzzing the US F-15's were all the rage and the then new Soviet SU fighter jets to be feared. The present conflict must really remind you of those days I guess since the Russians are dragging out all that old gear from way back. It's kind of like sound a do-over of those times with the same equipment by way passed its time.

I don't think the Russians are going to bother with their tanks a whole lot now, I think the recent move is just a case of using up old tanks that still move and tank crews who are without a tank, it's kind of callous of Russia to do that but they seem to operate that way in war. The Javlin & NLAW missiles tend to go up in the air and strike down to the top of the tank turret. The M-62 tanks are particularly weak there and basically extremely few to none of those tank crew that jump in those tanks stand any chance of survival. Literally them getting in one of those tanks is a death sentence that will likely quickly come about.

Russia's only conventional hope is it's artillery but with the west giving Ukraine longer range artillery, mobile long range missile units and the like their going to get pounded too soon.

I think Krim is right Russia is likely to use ballistic missiles, whether they are nuclear who knows. I said at the start that I wouldn't be surprised if Russia targeted Ukraine's troops with hyper thermal barbic missiles to take them out in one go along with any city they are sheltering in. I'm kind of surprised they didn't do that to begin with. Now it's looking like they may be moving to that. It's bad news of course for any residents remaining in front line cities as if they don't leave before missile strike they are unfortunately likely to be taken by it also. I can't help but wonder if our intervention as well meaning as it was might just end up making things worse out there and have made the situation a whole lot more deadly for Ukrainians.
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Offline 2tallbill

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2193 on: June 19, 2022, 11:46:44 AM »
I said at the start that I wouldn't be surprised if Russia targeted Ukraine's troops with hyper thermal barbic missiles to take them out in one go along with any city they are sheltering in. I'm kind of surprised they didn't do that to begin with.

Trench they cost too much. The old Soviet munitions work just fine
for destroying cities and killing women and children. No need to use
cutting edge tech for a medieval job.

Pentagon says hypersonic weapons are too expensive
The Pentagon wants defense contractors to cut the ultimate cost of hypersonic
weapons, the head of research and development said on Tuesday, as the next generation of super-fast missiles being developed currently cost tens of millions
per unit.

http://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pentagon-says-hypersonic-weapons-are-too-expensive-2021-10-12/
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Offline BC

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2194 on: June 19, 2022, 11:50:52 AM »
As I said, Russia could have (and still can) reduced Kyiv to rubble like they did in Mariupol if Putin really wanted to.

Good point. I take it Putin thought he could waltz in with a warm welcome, and maybe yes, decided resistance was too great without causing huge damage to the city (as has now been the case in other cities)

Also, whatever forces and equipment were left in the north, were needed in the south to make progress where little progress was being made.

"Can't have the cake and eat it too.." comes to mind.

Offline 2tallbill

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2195 on: June 19, 2022, 12:39:25 PM »
So very critical is time as always.  How much time will elapse before our
supplies to Ukraine overwhelms the supplies and troops available to Putin.

Can the Ukraine military last the required time waiting period ??

I don't think that the USA and the rest of the West have any intention
of giving Ukraine what they need to win. Look at the track history so
far. No MIG's or long range rockets (or equally bad only 4 of them).

I think they worry too much about what happens if Russia loses and
the instability that could cause
« Last Edit: June 19, 2022, 12:42:24 PM by 2tallbill »
FSUW are not for entry level daters
FSUW don't do vague
FSUW like a man of action. Be a man of action 
If you find a promising girl, get your butt on a plane.
There are a hundred ways to be successful and a thousand ways to f#ck it up
Kiss the girl, don't ask her first.

Offline Chelseaboy

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2196 on: June 19, 2022, 02:34:13 PM »
I don't think that the USA and the rest of the West have any intention
of giving Ukraine what they need to win. Look at the track history so
far. No MIG's or long range rockets (or equally bad only 4 of them).

I think they worry too much about what happens if Russia loses and
the instability that could cause


The west is giving Ukraine 10 long range rocket systems to start with..not 4.


4 from the USA.


3 from the UK.


3 from Germany.
Just saying it like it is.

Offline Chelseaboy

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2197 on: June 20, 2022, 07:40:22 AM »
I was just thinking about how this war affects the Ukrainian Military on a personal level.


From being just another face in the crowd leading a humdrum life ...you've now become a hero to millions of people around the World.


I see Ukrainian Flags everywhere as i drive around in my town.


You can post a selfie video on social media just sitting on top of a military vehicle dressed in your combat gear with an AK-47 or anti-tank weapon in your arms and millions of guys will be cheering you on and millions of women will be swooning over you.


This isn't just another war..this really is a war about holding-back and hopefully defeating the forces of evil.


There really hasn't been anything like this since the second world war..and social media really has brought it into everyone's homes.


Looking at the heroes faces there is no doubt or fear in their eyes..just the strength of conviction that what they're doing is very important and worthwhile and they want to share it with the world.


Some of them are even doing dance moves in the middle of war zones. :)


For many they will have finally found a real purpose in their lives..and if it's their day to die then they will do so knowing it was for a good cause.


As some have already said "It's the best job in the World...trashing Russians ".
« Last Edit: June 20, 2022, 07:42:16 AM by Chelseaboy »
Just saying it like it is.

Offline 2tallbill

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2198 on: June 20, 2022, 08:57:42 AM »
I think you are vastly underestimating the challenges involved 2tall.

I think you want to protect team Biden and their vast incompetence from
scrutiny.
FSUW are not for entry level daters
FSUW don't do vague
FSUW like a man of action. Be a man of action 
If you find a promising girl, get your butt on a plane.
There are a hundred ways to be successful and a thousand ways to f#ck it up
Kiss the girl, don't ask her first.

Offline BC

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2199 on: June 20, 2022, 09:09:00 AM »
2tall,

No, I've worked in the logistics field for over 30 years.  Biden did not even come to mind when replying to your posts.

 

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