The Struggle For Ukraine

[Chelseaboy]

The obvious answer to this from a Russian perspective could easily be..... The West has already been playing gangster in nations such as Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan...etc etc.   To compete we have to be gangsters too. 

Fathertime!

Russia was playing gangster in Afghanistan before we ever did.


I also remember Russia playing gangster in Georgia.


I also remember Russia playing gangster in Syria..remember the cluster bombs they dropped on civilians there ?.


Russia didn't learn about being gangsters from the west..it's in their DNA.

[Chelseaboy]

Big demonstrations in USA now..calling for a no fly zone in Ukraine.


Another 3500 people arrested in Russia last night for protests against the war.


Protests against the war in 120 countries this weekend..and Fathertime says people in most countries are not concerned about the war.


Does he get anything right ?


He did say Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine and he got that totally wrong.

[fathertime]

Big demonstrations in USA now..calling for a no fly zone in Ukraine.


Another 3500 people arrested in Russia last night for protests against the war.


Protests against the war in 120 countries this weekend..and Fathertime says people in most countries are not concerned about the war.


Does he get anything right ?


He did say Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine and he got that totally wrong.

Thanks for the mention, you seem to be personalizing this instead of speaking of the issues. 

Protests in countries all the time about everything.  We had protests in the USA during our wars too. 

Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

Yes, it seems everyone is quaking in their boots over this. So think it through. What would be the likely response from Russian use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine?

Dismissing the topic of nuclear weapons as 'quaking in boots' isn't addressing it.   

The scenario currently is probably (Your favorite word), getting close to the maximum the west can do without forcing a Russian escalation.  Not a straight escalation into nukes, more butchery in Ukraine.     Western media seems to indicate that Europe and the US are pouring $ and weaponry into Ukraine.  Russian leadership is likely (Another favorite word), coming to the realization that they will have to escalate rapidly to end the war quicker before the Western resources come into play.   

Fathertime!

[ML]

Washington — Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday (March 6, 2022) that NATO members have the go-ahead to send fighter jets to Ukraine as the U.S. and allies continue their efforts to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia's invasion.

"That gets a green-light," Blinken said in an interview with "Face the Nation" when asked whether the Polish government, a member of NATO, could send fighter planes to Ukraine. "In fact, we're talking with our Polish friends right now about what we might be able to do to backfill their needs if in fact they choose to provide these fighter jets to the Ukrainians. What can we do? How can we help to make sure that they get something to backfill the planes that they are handing over to the Ukrainians?"

But then some 'waffling'
A White House spokesperson told CBS News the Biden administration is evaluating the capabilities it could provide to provide jets to Poland if it decided to transfer planes to Ukraine but noted there are several questions that arise from a decision to do so, including how the jets could be transferred from Poland to Ukraine.

[ML]

Wife just read that now Poland has flipped back to NOT sending fighter planes to Ukraine.

[Admin]

Wife just read that now Poland has flipped back to NOT sending fighter planes to Ukraine.

ML, it's due to fear of escalating the war beyond Ukraine. Russia also warned other countries that use of their airports to support Ukraine would result in them being targeted.

The US, NATO and EU position on the war in Ukraine can best be understood as following the principle of 'realpolitik.' You can read the Wikipedia entry about it here -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realpolitik

Essentially it seeks to separate political action/response from emotion. It also separates out the ideology and focuses only on the rational prediction of consequences. Therein lies its fundamental weakness - it depends on the actors to behave rationally. It is useless when it comes to fighting against terrorists, and it quickly loses value when one of the actors is irrational. To this point, the US, EU and NATO are receiving rational signals from Putin. So long as that persists, it will be realpolitik which drives actions. It does not bode well for Ukraine.

[BC]

IIRC fighters would be classified as offensive weapons.  AFAIK, most if not all weapons provided to UA are defensive.

[Patagonie]

ML, it's due to fear of escalating the war beyond Ukraine. Russia also warned other countries that use of their airports to support Ukraine would result in them being targeted.

The US, NATO and EU position on the war in Ukraine can best be understood as following the principle of 'realpolitik.' You can read the Wikipedia entry about it here -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realpolitik

Essentially it seeks to separate political action/response from emotion. It also separates out the ideology and focuses only on the rational prediction of consequences. Therein lies its fundamental weakness - it depends on the actors to behave rationally. It is useless when it comes to fighting against terrorists, and it quickly loses value when one of the actors is irrational. To this point, the US, EU and NATO are receiving rational signals from Putin. So long as that persists, it will be realpolitik which drives actions. It does not bode well for Ukraine.

+1

[Boethius]

Interesting interview with an American general.

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/opinion-why-putin-will-regret-launching-this-war/ar-AAUHOPV?ocid=mailsignout&li=AAggFp5

[John Gaunt]

Can videos be posted here? Very graphic content, not from MSM.

[Boethius]

Yes, but I would put a warning on the video.

[John Gaunt]

Yes, but I would put a warning on the video.

File is too big, I think.

[Trenchcoat]

How about something like putting it on You Tube then posting the link here.

[John Gaunt]

How about something like putting it on You Tube then posting the link here.

No, it’s not suitable.

[Nightwish]

No, it’s not suitable.

imgur.com/
streamable.com/
mega.com

maybe?

[fathertime]

 
Russia's demands for an end of its operations are less than I would have expected.  Perhaps Ukraine leadership will decide it is better to live with these than the alternatives.  I would suspect that the demands would grow the more Russia invests, and obviously the death count and destruction does nothing but grow. 



Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin
 
LONDON (Reuters) -Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-115703035.html 

Fathertime! 

[John Gaunt]

imgur.com/
streamable.com/
mega.com

maybe?

I’m not on any of those sites.

I’ll try and edit to reduce the file size. Won’t be for a while though.

[Patagonie]

Russia's demands for an end of its operations are less than I would have expected.  Perhaps Ukraine leadership will decide it is better to live with these than the alternatives.  I would suspect that the demands would grow the more Russia invests, and obviously the death count and destruction does nothing but grow. 



Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin
 
LONDON (Reuters) -Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-115703035.html 

Fathertime!

NATO Ukraine's membership is highly questionable and I suppose that USA has some responsibility of Zelinsky's mind with this. The EU membership will need at least 12 years before becoming reality, again Zelinski asking to be part of the EU for tomorrow is laughable.

However, the only thing I am sure of every day passing by is the list of demands from the Russian Federation is naturally going to shrink because the RF already know that they will have to bail out and the number of their days in Ukraine is compted, they know this.And now they try to get a political gain from this. Which is likely to look like a player at Vegas casino having fewer and fewer cards in his hand but still trying to bid high before he loses the entire party and all his money. 
 
When you read the communique you already know that they will not stay in Ukraine
 
This is why Ukraine has to continue the attrition of the RF Army. The time is clocking in favor of Ukraine. RF knows that they have already lost the party and internally the power is at stake as the days are passing by. Even if Ukraine was signing, the RF will maybe not stand like it was.
The breakdown of the RF regime can happen every day and very fast now. So they try to materialize their gains right now before the cards are over. 
The RF is demilitarizing herself and proving right now that her world military ranking, the guarantee of her political power, is questionable on the battlefield. No military HQ in the world has missed the point believe me.
The demilitarization of the RF means that they will need 5 years at least before being militarily capable to conduct the same level of operation
 that they started two weeks ago. But the political conditions will never be the same, internally and externally. 
 
They have played their chances for a coup and missed the shot. They hope to get some benefits, but in fact, they maybe could pay the bill.

[fathertime]

However, the only thing I am sure of every day passing by is the list of demands from the Russian Federation is naturally going to shrink because the RF already know that they will have to bail out and the number of their days in Ukraine is compted, they know this.And now they try to get a political gain from this. Which is likely to look like a player at Vegas casino having fewer and fewer cards in his hand but still trying to bid high before he loses the entire party and all his money. 
 

Given the totality of the situation the demands weren't as big as perhaps expected.   It could be that Putin's demands were made public to provide some political cover to the nations that aren't cutting Russia off.  Nations like China, India, Pakistan could see these demands as not unreasonable, given the circumstances.  If that is the case, those nations could continue to provide outlets for Russia, now and in the future.   

However, the only thing I am sure of every day passing by is the list of demands from the Russian Federation is naturally going to shrink because the RF already know that they will have to bail out a
 
This is why Ukraine has to continue the attrition of the RF Army. The time is clocking in favor of Ukraine. RF knows that they have already lost the party and internally the power is at stake as the days are passing by.

If Russia's demands are going to shrink, as you assert, then Ukraine would have more incentive to continue to fight.   I'm not convinced that will be the case unless Russia is willing to take a total loss.  It seems they would go to much greater lengths which would encompass destruction of Ukraine on an even much wider scale. 

Fathertime!   

[Patagonie]

Given the totality of the situation the demands weren't as big as perhaps expected.   It could be that Putin's demands were made public to provide some political cover to the nations that aren't cutting Russia off.  Nations like China, India, Pakistan could see these demands as not unreasonable, given the circumstances.  If that is the case, those nations could continue to provide outlets for Russia, now and in the future.   
If Russia's demands are going to shrink, as you assert, then Ukraine would have more incentive to continue to fight.   I'm not convinced that will be the case unless Russia is willing to take a total loss.  It seems they would go to much greater lengths which would encompass destruction of Ukraine on an even much wider scale. 

Fathertime!

Correct

[ML]

Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin
 
LONDON (Reuters) -Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-115703035.html 

Fathertime!

I don't know what to advise on this . . . as I don't want a surrender, but also want the killing to stop.

I do pray that if war stops, that USA and all other nations continue existing sanctions on Russia until Russia provides the funds to rebuild all the structures and infrastructure that has been destroyed by them in Ukraine.

[Trenchcoat]

Guys, look at the map, Russian forces have now reached Kyiv from the North (finally) and the East of Kyiv. Russia shelled out Irpin yesterday so it's tanks could move in. The bridge has been blown there and Kyiv is literally the other side. If Russian forces on the East of Kyiv can move around and block the South of Kyiv then Kyiv will be encircled and trapped. It's then just a matter of time. Russian forces don't particularly then have to move into Kyiv, they just wait until food starts running out and Kyivians are fed up of being bombed. The the Capitulation comes and then it is likely a sorted for Russia. By the end of this week things will probably be looking even grimmer in Kyiv then they already are.

I'm surprised Mariupol is still holding out, it can't be much longer until they capitulate, they've been shelled to bits and can't be far from starvation now.

[Admin]

I don't know what to advise on this . . . as I don't want a surrender, but also want the killing to stop.

I do pray that if war stops, that USA and all other nations continue existing sanctions on Russia until Russia provides the funds to rebuild all the structures and infrastructure that has been destroyed by them in Ukraine.

ML ... this is incredibly, insanely, difficult. Imagine Zelensky and his advisors trying to determine what to do. I am certain he does not want any more Ukrainian - or Russian, for that matter - deaths. But the decision involves more, much more, than that.

As for rebuilding, Zelensky says he is already planning for rebuilding and has contacted numerous sources to secure aid in reconstruction. If Russia occupies Ukraine, I cannot imagine them having or securing the resources to rebuild.

[John Gaunt]

Guys, look at the map, Russian forces have now reached Kyiv from the North (finally) and the East of Kyiv. Russia shelled out Irpin yesterday so it's tanks could move in. The bridge has been blown there and Kyiv is literally the other side. If Russian forces on the East of Kyiv can move around and block the South of Kyiv then Kyiv will be encircled and trapped. It's then just a matter of time. Russian forces don't particularly then have to move into Kyiv, they just wait until food starts running out and Kyivians are fed up of being bombed. The the Capitulation comes and then it is likely a sorted for Russia. By the end of this week things will probably be looking even grimmer in Kyiv then they already are.

I'm surprised Mariupol is still holding out, it can't be much longer until they capitulate, they've been shelled to bits and can't be far from starvation now.

Mr Armchair General, there are several flaws in your plagiarised summary.
First of all, the Russian supply lines are being severely pulverized. A whole column of fuel trucks was blown up today heading for Kyiv.
Without fuel their armour and supporting vehicles grind to a halt.

So the Russians will not take the city without a fight.
Say in the long run they overrun the defending forces and take Kyiv along with other major population centres, then we will see a long war of attrition.
The Russians will control the major cities but there will be the vast swathes of country in between over which they will have no control. Their supply lines will be vulnerable and without supplies they will be quite vulnerable.
Partisan warfare at its best.

Carry on.