More Bad News for Russia

[Belvis]

Below are some quite precise numbers and specific description in a Ukrainian release of information.

Popular joke in Russia:
- Do you know how Russian-Ukrainian war is going on?
- Ukraine lost 10 tanks, 5 planes and 2000 soldiers, but they're attacking and close to victory.
- And Russia?
- Russia ignored the war.

[Belvis]

Actually it does. One doesn't really begin to feel the sting until the money and the raw materials run out.

Not for this case. Foreign money had run out a year ago, and raw materials are here, they have no legs to run 

[Doll]

Popular joke in Russia:
- Do you know how Russian-Ukrainian war is going on?
- Ukraine lost 10 tanks, 5 planes and 2000 soldiers, but they're attacking and close to victory.
- And Russia?
- Russia ignored the war.

Россия на войну не явилась 

[Gator]

Sorry, man, you're very far away from understanding how Russian economics works. 
Credit ratings do not matter now, investor have gone long ago after sanctions had began. OK, you can believe in great power of ratings but trust me, ratings will not delay the construction of new missile carrying submarines.

You are correct.  Russia can always print more money, not pay submarine and missile workers, rob Peter to pay Paul, etc.  Regardless, one day the piper must be paid. 

Your history books have such examples.  The Soviets were speaking the same bluster in the 1980s, and how did that go?  Answer:  oil production spiraled down because investments in oil fields were curtailed.     And what happened after that? 



Saudi Arabia, long the swing producer, is not lowering its production.  Saudi would welcome seeing its competitors decline (Russia, the US fracking, etc.).  Saudi does not want to revisit what happened in the 1980s when it cut production in an effort to keep prices high.  Saudis are smiling today, knowing what is ahead.

[Gator]

I recommend you to read carefully what adviser for Poroshenko is writing (in russian). Consider it as the inside instead of propaganda fiction you are fed:

I do not know him and I am unable to read it, so I can not comment.  Just remember, Ukrainians are fighting on their homeland.  Your history books speak of such, e. g., Soviets vs. Nazis and Mujahideen vs. Soviets. 

This is far from over.

[Muzh]

Sorry, man, you're very far away from understanding how Russian economics works. 

Sorry man, you're very far away from understanding how world economy, and therefore, geopolitics work.


But that's okay. Keep yourself insulated. It's cold outside. 

[sleepycat]

OK, you can believe in great power of ratings but trust me, ratings will not delay the construction of new missile carrying submarines.

Ahhhhh! Your tax money hard at work. Building more submarines instead of schools, hospitals or repairing roads.

Let's hope the Russian tax payers get their money's worth and these fine Russian quality new submarines don't all end up on the ocean floor permanently in a military conflict. 

[Gator]

Let's hope the Russian tax payers get their money's worth and these fine Russian quality new submarines don't all end up on the ocean floor permanently in a military conflict. 

Some Ruski subs end up on the ocean floor without being in a military conflict.   

[Gator]

Belvis,

This is what one of the world's foremost economists thinks about the downgrading of Russian credit rating to "junk status."

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/26/investing/russia-credit-rating-junk/index.html?iid=HP_Highlight

[fathertime]

Belvis,

This is what one of the world's foremost economists thinks about the downgrading of Russian credit rating to "junk status."

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/26/investing/russia-credit-rating-junk/index.html?iid=HP_Highlight

For better or worse, what it appears that economist is saying is that the 'junk' status increases the likelihood of further Russian 'adventurism' as he called it. 


Fathertime!   

[JayH]

Published on 27 Jan 2015
At the disposal of our channel video fragments were questioning APU captive "volunteer" Ruslan Genzhaeva - citizen of Russia, told about the methods by which he was forced to go to war in Ukraine.
See story Sotnik-TV. Journalist - Sasha centurion shooting and editing - Roman Pereverzev Support

[BillyB]

Now, imagine all this military armament being built to Soviet-standard quality? What do you think it will do against the rest of the world? Remember the old Soviet-mentality type of fight? Send a mass of materiel to the front and eventually one or two will get through?

That Soviet quality crap years ago helped create an influence so large that it rivals the largest empires known to mankind. Russia's newest military equipment is closer to par with the West's technology. Putin's focuses on building up his military instead of healing his economy is everybody's concern. Doll and Belvis didn't answer my last question about Putin's drive to build up Russia's military. Kind of like the elephant in the room Russians choose to ignore. I say Putin is going to use that military hardware. He needs to take someone's land to make up the losses in Russia's economy.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_empires

[calmissile]

That Soviet quality crap years ago helped create an influence so large that it rivals the largest empires known to mankind. Russia's newest military equipment is closer to par with the West's technology. Putin's focuses on building up his military instead of healing his economy is everybody's concern. Doll and Belvis didn't answer my last question about Putin's drive to build up Russia's military. Kind of like the elephant in the room Russians choose to ignore. I say Putin is going to use that military hardware. He needs to take someone's land to make up the losses in Russia's economy.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_empires

Of course he plans on using it to support his expansionist policy.  Russian doesn't exactly have anyone wanting to invade Russia.  Why else would he spend that much money when it is needed for other things.

[JayH]

Of course he plans on using it to support his expansionist policy.  Russian doesn't exactly have anyone wanting to invade Russia.  Why else would he spend that much money when it is needed for other things.

 The dead heads idea of capitalism to  increase the size of the market -invade more countries and create captive market.!! Duh-- and people keep trying to tell us this guy is not dumb!!

[Belvis]

Saudis are smiling today, knowing what is ahead.

You know what Arabs think? OK, bet your stake, we'll see in a year how good you know Arabs

Just remember, Ukrainians are fighting on their homeland.

Tell that people at Donbass. Though I agree with you, those fighting at their land will win

[Chelseaboy]

Belvis,

         Glad to know you believe the Ukrainian people of Donbass and the Ukrainian troops will defeat the pro-Russian separatist criminals/terrorists and invading Russian troops and mercenaries.

[Belvis]

Glad to know you believe the Ukrainian people of Donbass and the Ukrainian troops will defeat the pro-Russian separatist criminals/terrorists and invading Russian troops and mercenaries.

Fine. So if Donbass will separate from Ukraine you'll acknowledge Ukrainian army as aggressor invading land of Novorussians.
Deal 

[Doll]

I am confused- who are "pro-Russian terrorist" of Donbass? Aliens or Ukrainians?

[sleepycat]

land of Novorussians.

Hmmmmm..... where have I heard of that name before?
From a children fairy tale book? 

[Boethius]

Fine. So if Donbass will separate from Ukraine you'll acknowledge Ukrainian army as aggressor invading land of Novorussians.
Deal 

First, you are assuming the terrorists want to separate.  They don't.  They just want to rule the area.  They still want someone else (Kyiv, Moscow doesn't want them) to pay the bills.


Second, you are assuming the majority of the peoples on those lands wish to have some form of independence.  That, too, is an assumption that is not based on fact.

[Muzh]

That Soviet quality crap years ago helped create an influence so large that it rivals the largest empires known to mankind. Russia's newest military equipment is closer to par with the West's technology. Putin's focuses on building up his military instead of healing his economy is everybody's concern. Doll and Belvis didn't answer my last question about Putin's drive to build up Russia's military. Kind of like the elephant in the room Russians choose to ignore. I say Putin is going to use that military hardware. He needs to take someone's land to make up the losses in Russia's economy.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_empires

Here Billy, educate yourself.


http://russiamil.wordpress.com/
2015/01/27/russian-air-force-capabilities-and-procurement-plans/

[Gator]

You know what Arabs think? OK, bet your stake, we'll see in a year how good you know Arabs

Arabs!  Arabs are a diverse lot, extending from Morocco to Iraq.  Based on the squabbling among themselves, all Arabs clearly don't think the same.    So I  can not claim to [using your words] "know what Arabs think."   

I do know that the swing producer Saudi Arabia is intent on keeping its share of the oil market by driving high cost producers out of business.  Yesterday I gave you an excellent chart of oil production over the years by various producers (see Reply 2228).  That chart shows that in the early 1980s the Saudis reduced production by about 70% to drive the price upwards.  Other countries maintained if not increased the production levels, e.g. Iran, Russia.   Thus, the Saudis lost market share. They  will not repeat that mistake.     

In fact, the Saudis are raising production to drive the price down, and their purpose is to reduce competition.  New fracking projects will be shelved.  Russia, Venezuela, and Iran will not have as much capital to invest in maintaining and replacing its current production levels (this is shown in the chart for USSR-Russia in the period 1985-95), so their production will slacken.   

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia keeps producing, thereby maintaining its market share.  Slowly the demand and supply equation will find balance and price will recover.  Saudis will not have lost their market share, and unlike the 1980s they will take full advantage of the higher price. 

The supply currently exceeds demand by only about 2 million bbl.  So it will not take long to bring the equation into balance.  In 18 months, I guess a price of $70/bbl.  Longer if QE does not work in the EU, if China does not ramp up its domestic economy, if Putin continues his nationalistic adventurism, etc.  There is much oil in storage and that has to be worked down too.

What is your number and when?  The wager?   Dollars only, as I do not know what a 'rubble' will be worth. 

[Boethius]

This is for all those who claim the so called "rebels" who are "only fighting for their own rights".  This family was killed near their home in Mariuopol, a city that does not support the so called "rebels".  Tell their crying families that Putin is protecting them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-cl=84924572&v=29DhYERU3G0&x-yt-ts=1422411861#t=61

[Steamer]

This is for all those who claim the so called "rebels" who are "only fighting for their own rights".

No, they're the "freedom fighters" struggling to rid themselves of the tyranny of the illegal government in Kiev.

[JayH]

No, they're the "freedom fighters" struggling to rid themselves of the tyranny of the illegal government in Kiev.

Oh???