What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[JayH]

No one wants an escalation of the current conflict-but-- it looks to me that Putin has set out to create the climate and excuse for Russia to move further into Ukraine - so what will happen if he does?


What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?
http://theweek.com/article/index/257406/what-would-a-us-russia-war-look-like
A conventional war in Eastern Europe
This is the other scenario that never happened in the Cold War. Now, the possibility of scenario one (nuclear Armageddon) makes this one almost equally unlikely. But for the sake of argument, let's assume this hypothetical U.S.-Russia war breaks out in Ukraine, and that other NATO forces are supplementing U.S. troops, ships, and aircraft. Unlike in the Asia-Pacific, where the U.S. keeps China in check (and vice versa, as Eugene Chow explained), NATO provides the United States with a robust military alliance set up specifically to take on Soviet Russia.

A proxy war
Short of a negotiated peace with no casualties, this is the best of the bad options. The U.S. and Russia have already fought a string of proxy wars, the big ones being Vietnam to Afghanistan. In this scenario, the U.S. might finance Ukrainian forces to fight Russian soldiers, with the probable goal of driving them out of Ukrainian territory. Or, should the U.S. or NATO back the Ukrainian army, Russia might fund pro-Moscow separatist movements in Ukraine against it.

Added Later
Worth reading!!

Games Kabanenko said that now is the moment of truth. "If we make any moves with a delay, it is creating new risks. Military affairs policy must act decisively," - he said.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/politika/vice-admiral-poyasniv-chomu-ukrayinci-peremozhut-u-viyni-z-rosiyeyu-339951.html

[lonedrake]

Jay,

 I haven't read the article yet. I just wanted to thank you for continuing to post up news. I like the new style too. Much easier to read by clicking on the link. Before it was so broken up it was hard to follow. Plus.....the Admin. is happy

[JayH]

Thx LD-- regardless of what a few think there is nothing remotely as important right now to most of our interests in Ukraine ( & Russia)  to compare with this ongoing and fast moving crisis. The simple fact now is that any beginner interested in the FSU  ( soon to be again??  )  would not be wise to be making a first trip--especially so if not Russian speaking.  So--best advice is to put  all on hold-wait & see for the moment.
Some of the links I use are not obvious-often they do not appear in English speaking search engines - and have some very interesting material. They are also well ahead of western media sources and I often see it used days later!!!
So here is one just in below. Earlier today I have been  seeing reports of Ukrainian troops and hardware taking up defensive positions in eastern and southern Ukraine .
http://tsn.ua/politika/ukrayinska-armiya-grupuyetsya-na-shidnih-ta-pivdennih-kordonah-dlya-protivagi-rosiyanam-340124.html
This is a pre-cursor to declaring martial law.
Turchynov signed a decree on partial mobilization, which will take effect after enactment.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/politika/turchinov-pidpisav-ukaz-pro-ogoloshennya-voyennogo-stanu-ta-chastkovu-zagalnu-mobilizaciyu-v-armiyu-340154.html
 
Russian Military Obsolete?
Columnist notes that the armed forces of only 26% upgraded. UNIAN Russian army is not ready for long fight with Ukraine Army of currently the largest in Eastern Europe, but it is outdated and can not win in the long conflict.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/svit/armiya-rosiyi-moralno-zastarila-i-ne-gotova-dovgo-voyuvati-z-ukrayinoyu-the-washington-post-339101.html

Putin Bluffing?
The German edition has analyzed whether the Russian economy to withstand sanctions to the Kremlin fought in Ukraine. AFP Putin is bluffing and has no money for the army and the war in Ukraine President of Russia only pretends strong leader, who allegedly did not frighten Western sanctions. But in reality it lacks the Army prepared for a long war with Ukraine, nor the money to do so.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/svit/putin-blefuye-i-ne-maye-armiyi-ta-groshey-dlya-viyni-v-ukrayini-bild-339580.html

[Steamer]

What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

It will look like a Ukrainian civil war.

[Gator]

Jay,

Any war will be fought on the economic front.  Troops on the ground?  Very doubtful. 

[Muzh]

Jay,

Any war will be fought on the economic front.  Troops on the ground?  Very doubtful.

That should benefit Russia tremendously.
 
Right now, a naval battle between the Russian BSF and the US 6th fleet would last maybe half a day with all the Russian ships in the bottom of the Black Sea.
 
http://russiamil.wordpress.com/
 
Basically, it is in Putin's best interest that the rest of the world accept his North Korean doctrine (he is crazy enough to start a nuclear war so let him do what he wants) and push along as far as he can. He'd be hard pressed if some other lunatic, like a Ted Cruz, would be US President. Then he'd be forced to use his nuclear warheads because he is going to lose a conventional war with US/NATO.

[missAmeno]

Jay,

Any war will be fought on the economic front.  Troops on the ground?  Very doubtful.

Yep, troops that already on the ground are fiction of imagination. 

[Anotherkiwi]

Yep, troops that already on the ground are fiction of imagination. 

I'm guessing (hoping?) that he means U.S. troops v Russian troops.  Even the "average" Russian must surely know by now that, despite what Putin has claimed, there ARE Russian troops in Ukraine.

[JohnDearGreen]

Even the "average" Russian must surely know by now that, despite what Putin has claimed, there ARE Russian troops in Ukraine.

Russian Spetsnaz have been infiltrating Ukraine since the Kyiv Maidan protests.  They were supposedly participating on both sides of the Maidan struggle, passing false information to Police or whoever, in attempts to sway the events.

[southernX]

lets all hope it wont escalate to open conflict involving the military

while many supposed experts are saying it wont happen and its putins bluff , honestly id not be surprised if it goes ahead, currently it wont take much to spark it off either in crimea or ukraine proper

if the destabilisation of the south east doesnt work as he had planned , he might up the anti even more in the near future

if it where to happen , even if putin is able to initially put forces into ukraine quickly at the outset, it  will be bloody and protracted imho  ,   slowly inevitably  dragging in other players

SX

[JayH]

It will look like a Ukrainian civil war.

That is sort of how I see it-- with Ukraine  intent on preventing invasion. EG- Ukraine defending ground but not moving into Russia . If it came to military action then this would be preferrered containment( my preference is for the Russians to leave voluntarily without bloodshed-the damage done to Ukraine paid for by zeroing any debts to Russia!!)
Hopefully Ukraine will have the assistance of NATO as the US and UK honour the treaties it holds with Ukraine.

Jay,

Any war will be fought on the economic front.  Troops on the ground?  Very doubtful. 

The economic pressure that is induceable is  potentially substantial-- paticularly when it hits Putin's cronies  and they start to see personal wealth diminishing--both in Russia and elsewhere.These people will get rid of Putin asap once the writing is on the wall. Combine that with military action-- and you have the ingredients to resolve this crisis.If Ukraine gets the military backing it needs--they will be effective on the ground.

lets all hope it wont escalate to open conflict involving the military

SX

Agreed.
Unfortunately I tend to think the provocations are the pre cursor to create the climate for an excuse to invade. Putin is either insane--or deluded--probably both-- and that is just plain dangerous to Ukraine-- and to the rest of the world.

[Dewed]

The economic pressure that is induceable is  potentially substantial-- paticularly when it hits Putin's cronies  and they start to see personal wealth diminishing--both in Russia and elsewhere.

Wait, are you saying they are capitalists !!!      

and just to chime in on your previous post.. it is not that news is not important.. it is simply better left to actual news organizations. One of my idols said it best.. paraphrasing, but...  You can not cram the truth down someone's throat, despite the tasty truthfulness, the cramming makes it palatable.

[JayH]

Wait, are you saying they are capitalists !!!      

and just to chime in on your previous post.. it is not that news is not important.. it is simply better left to actual news organizations. One of my idols said it best.. paraphrasing, but...  You can not cram the truth down someone's throat, despite the tasty truthfulness, the cramming makes it palatable.

Part of the point has been that  I posted translated version- not everone can translate. I also see little point in rewriting ( as some do!!) extensive material that someone else has already covered.This crisis was and still is moving at an extraordinary rate -with so many relevant side issues needing wider explanations .That is where links are crucial-- eg- saying there is  concentrated Russian Propaganda is best illustrated to see for oneself -- rather than spend time in silly dispute about semantics.My last point-- some links are to news releases--ie the material that later news organisations use to base material on.
Regardless--I take your point.


Re Capitalists-- well yes-- the absolute extreme end of ugly exploitative extreme end of undesirable capitalism--  the thieving corrupt end!!

ADDED LATER
France threatens military response to Russian aggression in Crimea
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius Russia threatens military response to aggression in the Crimea and in the desire to annex the Ukrainian peninsula.
The minister said that this is the biggest crisis since the Cold War. The Minister said, speaking in French broadcast channel TF1. "After a certain point the reaction, including the strength, we can not let them do it. Initially France may terminate a contract with Russia for the supply of two ships Mistral, being built in Saint-Nazaire.
If Putin continues what he is doing, we can consider the cancellation of the supply, "- said the Minister. Interestingly, the construction of ships Mistral has created in France about a thousand jobs. For, these ships opened access to advanced military technology.
Source: http://tsn.ua/politika/franciya-pogrozhuye-rosiyi-viyskovoyu-vidpoviddyu-na-agresiyu-v-krimu-340335.html

[lordtiberius]

It will be a proxy war.

[southernX]

Unfortunately I tend to think the provocations are the pre cursor to create the climate for an excuse to invade. Putin is either insane--or deluded--probably both-- and that is just plain dangerous to Ukraine-- and to the rest of the world.

yes , it is most likely how it wil be started if it does happen

putin is however not insane or deluded
he is imho a  typical male of his generation and social enviroment ,hard nosed and practical , do what you must to achieve your aim ,  you dont work in the areas he has in germany under soviet rule etc  without learning certain skills , evaluating people and manipulating/intimidating  them among others is stock in trade,

he has imho  made the decision his plan will pay off in the longer term , he accepts his country will take some negative for it , but in the  pragmatic longer term he will make it into russian  history as a strong  leader who reunified parts of the FSU

question is really how far is he ready to go to do that , before he gets some  significant push back

at present it doesnt look good

SX

[Daz0187]

To be honest and I don't wish to insult or offend any US citizens on here.
I can't stand the fact that any time there is conflict the US has to stick their nose into it!
I am not political or don't know too much about politics however it seems to me that EVERY time there is a dispute the US have to get involved.
My girl is from Russia and she doesn't even like this situation in fact she hates that it has come to this...

Sorry if I offended I have heaps of US friends and don't wish to offend in any way.
Let these 2 countries sort it out themselves I think

[Chelseaboy]

How do you propose the two countries sort it out themselves ?

Russia has invaded part of Ukraine and stolen it's land.

If Russia decides to invade the rest of Ukraine,you think Putin and his cronies will take notice of any Ukrainian protestations. ?

All looks a bit one-sided to me ,unless other countries step in and help Ukraine with military intervention.

And I'm a Brit..not US.

[Dewed]

To be honest and I don't wish to insult or offend any US citizens on here.
I can't stand the fact that any time there is conflict the US has to stick their nose into it!
I am not political or don't know too much about politics however it seems to me that EVERY time there is a dispute the US have to get involved.
My girl is from Russia and she doesn't even like this situation in fact she hates that it has come to this...

Sorry if I offended I have heaps of US friends and don't wish to offend in any way.
Let these 2 countries sort it out themselves I think

I'm an American and I completely agree and I suspect a lot of others do too. Perhaps there was a time when USA acted as world police by necessity because no one else had the resources. That is not the case anymore. IMHO, we (meaning the US of A) need to get the UN off it's duff and sort this out as part of the UN, and even then, only to ensure elections are legit, ensure safe passage for those that want out and to *help* defend the defenseless. The US has no more right to dictate Ukraine's future than Putin does.

[JayH]

To be honest and I don't wish to insult or offend any US citizens on here.
I can't stand the fact that any time there is conflict the US has to stick their nose into it!
I am not political or don't know too much about politics however it seems to me that EVERY time there is a dispute the US have to get involved.
My girl is from Russia and she doesn't even like this situation in fact she hates that it has come to this...

Sorry if I offended I have heaps of US friends and don't wish to offend in any way.
Let these 2 countries sort it out themselves I think

Daz--this is not about the US. The politics here are clear enough-- any action will be the result of long standing treaties that The US is party to-- for me personally I want them to honour those obligations. Thru NATO taking a strong emphatic stance is the way to prevent loss of life- and that will only be after all other measures are tried to make Putins Russia see some sense.
I have been sceptical enough myself about US motives  historically-- but when the world sat on its hands while the genocide took place in Bosnia I think having a worlds policeman was not such a bad thing. The fact is that the US is the most powerful military-- means its assistance is required to make effective responses.
In this case-- the chances of your girlfriend getting anything close to the factual situation is highly unlikely,See the forum re Russian propaganda --it is in fact telling ludicrous lies. Russia has invaded a foreign country-- and is now threatening  to move further.That is simply unacceptable.
The Australian government has made it clear to Russia exactly that point- and Australia will be party and active participant in sanctions against Russia.
I would say to your girlfriend-- wake up about what Putin is dragging Russia into-- there is a simple solution-- Russia can withdraw its troops from Ukrainian territory and stop meddling in Ukrainian internal politics.
This is all about Russia-- not the US of A.

I'm an American and I completely agree and I suspect a lot of others do too. Perhaps there was a time when USA acted as world police by necessity because no one else had the resources. That is not the case anymore. IMHO, we (meaning the US of A) need to get the UN off it's duff and sort this out as part of the UN, and even then, only to ensure elections are legit, ensure safe passage for those that want out and to *help* defend the defenseless. The US has no more right to dictate Ukraine's future than Putin does.

Answer above-- applies equally!!  I do not think in any way that the US is dictating or has attempted to . US is a bystander -- and because of treaty obligations has a seat at the table.

[Dewed]

Well, there is that 8 billion $  the US will, possibly has lent the current Ukraine government, I can't imagine there are absolutely no strings attached besides "pay it back when you can".  It could be perceived as a sly way to "keep an eye on  an investment" via the eyes of US troops, and I wouldn't be surprised if that is exactly what it is.

Yes I am jaded.. I don't trust anyone, especially governments, including my own with few exceptions

[Chelseaboy]

If USA citizens are so frightened of Russia they're  afraid to honour their agreement with Ukraine,regarding Ukraine giving up it's Nuclear weapons,then what's the point in the USA having all it's military strength.?

It's highly unlikely anyone will attack USA with all the nuclear missiles at it's disposal,so why not just disband the vast majority of fleets,Air-force and troops..they're not needed...just a waste of taxpayers money.

The same applies to the UK.

Then we can all let Putin do what he wants..oh hang- on he does that anyway.

[Dewed]

HUH?  Who said anything about the US being frightened?  Frightened of nuclear war perhaps, which seems a fairly reasonable thing to be frightened of...  If you are responding to me.. all I am saying is the US should not be the lone force to deal with this.. UN, EU, NATO.. otherwise whats the point of their existence ? 

Odd, most don't want the US to act like world police, until they need a country capable of acting like world police.. THATS WHAT NATO and the UN is for !

and to just kill em all and let God sort em out is not a very good diplomatic tactic.. perhaps we should try something a little less Armageddon'ish first? ya think?

[Faux Pas]

If USA citizens are so frightened of Russia they're  afraid to honour their agreement with Ukraine,regarding Ukraine giving up it's Nuclear weapons,then what's the point in the USA having all it's military strength.?

It's highly unlikely anyone will attack USA with all the nuclear missiles at it's disposal,so why not just disband the vast majority of fleets,Air-force and troops..they're not needed...just a waste of taxpayers money.

The same applies to the UK.

Then we can all let Putin do what he wants..oh hang- on he does that anyway.

Nobody is frightened of Russia. We have a weak leader. Yes, that's the leader Europe and the rest of the world was fawning over as the next messiah. Make no mistake, if Obama had the cajones to introduce a military option over Crimea Russia would be gone from Crimea in a matter of days, possibly hours. Russia's military is massive against Ukraine but, the U.S. isn't Ukraine. Putin knows it and he also knows Obama won't use a military option against him for anything.

Come to think of it, where are the Brits? They were in Budapest in 1994, too.

[LiveFromUkraine]

If USA citizens are so frightened of Russia they're  afraid to honour their agreement with Ukraine,regarding Ukraine giving up it's Nuclear weapons,then what's the point in the USA having all it's military strength.?It's highly unlikely anyone will attack USA with all the nuclear missiles at it's disposal,so why not just disband the vast majority of fleets,Air-force and troops..they're not needed...just a waste of taxpayers money.The same applies to the UK.Then we can all let Putin do what he wants..oh hang- on he does that anyway.

It sounds like you're suggesting war.

[Hammer2722]

If USA citizens are so frightened of Russia they're  afraid to honour their agreement with Ukraine,regarding Ukraine giving up it's Nuclear weapons,then what's the point in the USA having all it's military strength.?

It's highly unlikely anyone will attack USA with all the nuclear missiles at it's disposal,so why not just disband the vast majority of fleets,Air-force and troops..they're not needed...just a waste of taxpayers money.

The same applies to the UK.

Then we can all let Putin do what he wants..oh hang- on he does that anyway.

Frightened???? Just remember one thing. The US is the only country to have ever used nuclear weapons against another country........