2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[BC]

Then indeed a demographic age difference involved.

Some more info here that explains quite a bit about mortality vs other countries, unfortunately, Italy not listed but one can get a good gist of what's behind 'crude mortality' rates your link shows.

http://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/mortality-rates-u-s-compare-countries/#item-overall-age-adjusted-mortality-rate-per-100000-population-1980-2015-3

Oh, wasn't late here at all.  Around here we get up fairly early 7.30ish, lunch around 2 pm followed by a nice relax/nap, up at 4 pm dinner starts around 9.30 pm or so, bedtime around 1-2am.  I guess you are pretty familiar with the routine.

[msmob]

Trump:  "I tried the Russian vaccine and confirm no side effects"

[GQBlues]

Then indeed a demographic age difference involved.

Some more info here that explains quite a bit about mortality vs other countries, unfortunately, Italy not listed but one can get a good gist of what's behind 'crude mortality' rates your link shows.

http://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/mortality-rates-u-s-compare-countries/#item-overall-age-adjusted-mortality-rate-per-100000-population-1980-2015-3

Oh, wasn't late here at all.  Around here we get up fairly early 7.30ish, lunch around 2 pm followed by a nice relax/nap, up at 4 pm dinner starts around 9.30 pm or so, bedtime around 1-2am.  I guess you are pretty familiar with the routine.

US maintains a higher rate of circulatory diseases - diabetes, heart diseases, etc...high cholesterol/sugar consumption I suppose is expected considering a lot of comfort food is readily available for the masses. Then there's also the growing population of Hispanics, whose diet consist of high amounts of lectin-rich foods, grain and lard.

The flip-side though is we had reduced smoking which in turn decreased lung, throat cancer.

Although quite interesting to me that the very vast majority of western European nations have a much higher rate of mortality than the US considering,eherm, all the yadayada our *healthcare is better than yours, etc...*

[Gator]

FLORIDA SITUATION IMPROVED

New cases in Florida were about 10,000 per day in the beginning of August.  Florida was considered one of the nation's epicenters for COVID.  The question was whether this was the beginning of a large second wave or merely re-cresting of the first wave.  Today, cases are less than 3,000 per day. 

140,000 new cases and 4,100 additional deaths  for the month of August in a state population of 22 million.    My county of 1.5 million is faring better (7,400 cases and 200 deaths) as the Miami area continues to be the most impacted. 

Hospitalization rates have improved as well, never approaching the capacity of the health care system.    11,400 of the new Florida cases for August required hospitalization (about 8 percent of cases).

Still too many deaths, yet life is improving: 

     -  My germaphobic wife even allows herself to enjoy indoor restaurants (too hot for outdoor dining). 

     -  My granddaughter is in remote schooling.  The teacher monitors whether she stays in front of the screen.   Because she is in kindergarten, my son must work at home to assist.  Plans are to open classrooms in 2 weeks.   Top of her class in math.  Needs work on pronouns.

     -  My golfing survived, yet one foursome of 50-somethings at our club became infected.  All have returned to golf. 

Is this the great tragedy claimed by the Democrats?

[BC]

Although quite interesting to me that the very vast majority of western European nations have a much higher rate of mortality than the US considering,eherm, all the yadayada our *healthcare is better than yours, etc...*

The demographic reasons for the higher mortality in some other countries is clear.  Regarding healthcare, look a the section in the link I sent entitled 'The U.S. has the highest rate of deaths amenable to health care among comparable countries'

A country can have a great healthcare system, but its value is degraded in terms of mortality if for whatever reason is not available to many.  Lack of insurance and high deductibles may well be a reason for folks not being able to benefit.  I do agree that if everyone could get the high level of healthcare available in the US, we might improve other areas that need improvement like maternal and infant mortality and make up for some other factors like overdose deaths that drive up our mortality figures.

Consider life expectancy as a measure of overall health and healthcare performance as well.

http://www.infoplease.com/world/health-and-social-statistics/life-expectancy-countries

[msmob]

FLORIDA SITUATION IMPROVED

New cases in Florida were about 10,000 per day in the beginning of August.  Florida was considered one of the nation's epicenters for COVID.  The question was whether this was the beginning of a large second wave or merely re-cresting of the first wave.  Today, cases are less than 3,000 per day. 

140,000 new cases and 4,100 additional deaths  for the month of August in a state population of 22 million.    My county of 1.5 million is faring better (7,400 cases and 200 deaths) as the Miami area continues to be the most impacted. 

Hospitalization rates have improved as well, never approaching the capacity of the health care system.    11,400 of the new Florida cases for August required hospitalization (about 8 percent of cases).

Still too many deaths, yet life is improving: 

     -  My germaphobic wife even allows herself to enjoy indoor restaurants (too hot for outdoor dining). 

     -  My granddaughter is in remote schooling.  The teacher monitors whether she stays in front of the screen.   Because she is in kindergarten, my son must work at home to assist.  Plans are to open classrooms in 2 weeks.   Top of her class in math.  Needs work on pronouns.

     -  My golfing survived, yet one foursome of 50-somethings at our club became infected.  All have returned to golf. 

Is this the great tragedy claimed by the Democrats?

Is IS a great tragedy - given Florida is 3.5 times worse re new cases ( at a level you seem to regard as 'good' ) than France, which is seriously considering drastic measures .

[msmob]

A theory re new cases

The UK: only a third of workers have gone back to work

In France 2 out of three have ..

Where are the biggest dangers of infection ?    Close quarters and air-conditioning ( Public transport and wok environments )


Could this be why the UK is ( currently ) much lower ( through increasing) than France

[Gator]

Is IS a great tragedy - given Florida is 3.5 times worse re new cases ( at a level you seem to regard as 'good' ) than France, which is seriously considering drastic measures .

Certainly impactful, yet Not a Great Tragedy for two reasons:

     1.  The number of cases is small as a percentage of the population, and majority of infections are inconsequential if not asymptomatic. 
 
     2.   Outcomes are dependent upon one's personal decisions: 

               a.  If elderly or having underlying conditions, definitely stay home.  Depend on friends and family to provide for you.   

               b.  If average health, captain of your soul and master of your fate, practice the guidelines and get on with living life, particularly knowing that if one became infected,  the risk of hospitalization is small.

               c.  If frightened by the news, stay sheltered yet study science, risk and risk mitigation, and perhaps you too will decide to live life.   

I am not making light of Biden for sheltering in his basement.  That is his personal decision, and probably prudent considering he seems frail, has others who will provide for him, and has access to technology for communication.  The fact that someone with Joe's views is planning to emerge from his home says this is not a continuing tragedy.   

[BC]

1.  The number of cases is small as a percentage of the population, and majority of infections are inconsequential if not asymptomatic.

We can't really say that with any authority.  Long term consequences are not well known.

   

            a.  If elderly or having underlying conditions, definitely stay home.  Depend on friends and family to provide for you.

This comprises the majority of Americans. 

The fact that someone with Joe's views is planning to emerge from his home says this is not a continuing tragedy.   

Meanwhile, in other countries where very low levels of infections were achieved and are being maintained along with infected folks quickly found and isolated, everyone, even those with underlying conditions can circulate quite normally and in relative safety by taking simple, prudent measures.  Such is too risky where very high levels of uncontrolled infections exist.

[Gator]

We can't really say that with any authority.  Long term consequences are not well known.

Just because something is in the "not well known" category, doesn't mean it is very harmful.  Assuming everything could be bad will paralyze society. 

   

This comprises the majority of Americans. 

 

Sounds like one of my jokes.  Now I understand something may be funny to me but others not think it humorous. 

Meanwhile, in other countries where very low levels of infections were achieved and are being maintained along with infected folks quickly found and isolated, everyone, even those with underlying conditions can circulate quite normally and in relative safety by taking simple, prudent measures.  Such is too risky where very high levels of uncontrolled infections exist.

Quick.  Tell Joe Biden is not safe to come out of his basement.  Joe's "coming out" means he will now do what the rest of us have been doing for the past 6 months. 

[BC]

Just because something is in the "not well known" category, doesn't mean it is very harmful.  Assuming everything could be bad will paralyze society. 

Neither does it make them 'inconsequential'.  Heart, lung, brain issues have been reported and are being studied.  Possibly other organs as well
     

Sounds like one of my jokes.  Now I understand something may be funny to me but others not think it humorous. 

http://www.rand.org/blog/rand-review/2017/07/chronic-conditions-in-america-price-and-prevalence.html

Again, we don't really know all the chronic conditions that make covid worse.  Some studies mention 45% have at least one condition but this is based on surveys and folks reporting that their doctor mentioned they had one.

Quick.  Tell Joe Biden is not safe to come out of his basement.  Joe's "coming out" means he will now do what the rest of us have been doing for the past 6 months.

He is likely being as prudent as you and I are.  I don't have a basement and doubt you are hiding in one if you do have one.

[GQBlues]

The demographic reasons for the higher mortality in some other countries is clear.  Regarding healthcare, look a the section in the link I sent entitled 'The U.S. has the highest rate of deaths amenable to health care among comparable countries'

A country can have a great healthcare system, but its value is degraded in terms of mortality if for whatever reason is not available to many.  Lack of insurance and high deductibles may well be a reason for folks not being able to benefit.  I do agree that if everyone could get the high level of healthcare available in the US, we might improve other areas that need improvement like maternal and infant mortality and make up for some other factors like overdose deaths that drive up our mortality figures.

Consider life expectancy as a measure of overall health and healthcare performance as well.

http://www.infoplease.com/world/health-and-social-statistics/life-expectancy-countries

Interesting take despite the fact most Western European nation have a much higher rate of mortality.

As for healthcare and general health, a great illustration of this is what’s going on with the current pandemic, more notably CFR. Take California v Italy for example. Our positive case is much more prevalent than that of Italy but WOW look at how many more Italians didn’t fare so well under Italy’s healthcare system.

One can make a case higher population of older folks, BUT, as CDC now reports, the very vast majority of people succumbing to COVID are those with at least one underlying condition vs those who died of the virus alone.

Numbers don’t lie.

[Gator]

He is likely being as prudent as you and I are. 

For sure, but he could have done the same earlier. 

I don't have a basement and doubt you are hiding in one if you do have one.

Joe has a basement and there is where he sheltered day after day.   Why?  Was he delivering the message that it is too dangerous to venture outside because of Trump's COVID policies?   Or was it a rope-a-dope strategy and Joe will be surprisingly adroit in debating Trump? 

Thank Gawd most of America continued to venture outside and work. 

[Gator]

Again, we don't really know all the chronic conditions that make covid worse. 

With hundreds of thousands of deaths in Western societies known for reliable data, surely the government scientists-statisticians  have  a reasonable idea.  Why don't they report such information?

In the US I have seen many estimates suggesting somewhere between 40-60% of the COVID deaths were from infections originating in long term care and nursing facilities.  This clearly states that advanced age is the number one risk factor.   

Is it advanced age alone, or some mix of underlying conditions widely prevalent in the aged?  Because the elderly have multiple conditions (folks, it's called "getting old"), maybe there is no clear pattern as to immune response: susceptibility, response to different treatments, rate of advancement of symptoms, mortality, etc. 

I assert the nursing home population needs the best protection.  Are they  receiving the best protection?  For example, are they tested with the same frequency accorded our athletes playing team sports?  And virtually all those athletes who test "positive" show few symptoms and return to active competition in two weeks or so.   

PROTECT THE ELDERLY - DO NOT SHUT DOWN THE WORKING AGE

[Gator]

Some interesting developments about a different category of therapeutic medicines -  administer interferons to infected patients. 

WASHINGTON POST:

The coronavirus disarms the foot soldiers of the immune system. Scientists theorize that boosting them could fight covid-19.

Several trials are underway to see whether giving patients interferons early might prevent severe disease — or hasten recovery.

[BC]

Interesting take despite the fact most Western European nation have a much higher rate of mortality.

Of which much, maybe all the difference can be accounted for by age demographics.  More older people, more deaths.

As for healthcare and general health, a great illustration of this is what’s going on with the current pandemic, more notably CFR. Take California v Italy for example. Our positive case is much more prevalent than that of Italy but WOW look at how many more Italians didn’t fare so well under Italy’s healthcare system.

CFR is a 'fuzzy' number as we do not know how many have been infected in the US nor Italy, nor any other country.  We know only those that have tested positive.  What might be worthwhile following up on is the CFR of a particular comparable age group but haven't seen such.  Have you?   Also CFR changes over time.  We may know more about CFR when the virus threat is pretty much over.

One can make a case higher population of older folks, BUT, as CDC now reports, the very vast majority of people succumbing to COVID are those with at least one underlying condition vs those who died of the virus alone.

Old age is an 'underlying condition' as the immune system wanes with age.

Numbers don’t lie.

Indeed they don't.  Within the next week or so, deaths per million in the US will overtake deaths per million in Italy.  Currently 567 dpm (US) and 587 dpm (Italy).  This is much earlier than even I expected.

[BC]

Or was it a rope-a-dope strategy and Joe will be surprisingly adroit in debating Trump? 

Thank Gawd most of America continued to venture outside and work.

Well Trump does have a way of digging his own hole, so why try to stop him.

2.5 million active cases in the US should certainly not be working.  We'll see again on Thursday how many are currently unemployed.  Several financial support measures and obligations of companies that took loans to keep folks on the payroll are expiring IIRC, so we might be in for a sad surprise these coming weeks.  Ditto for additional financial assistance for unemployed.  Many rents and mortgages are overdue and lenders will want their money as well.

[BC]

With hundreds of thousands of deaths in Western societies known for reliable data, surely the government scientists-statisticians  have  a reasonable idea.  Why don't they report such information?

It is tough enough to gather information regarding deaths, much less detailed patient history for those who thus far have suffered health consequences.

In the US I have seen many estimates suggesting somewhere between 40-60% of the COVID deaths were from infections originating in long term care and nursing facilities.  This clearly states that advanced age is the number one risk factor.   

Yes, our immune system is inherently weaker the older we are.

Is it advanced age alone, or some mix of underlying conditions widely prevalent in the aged?  Because the elderly have multiple conditions (folks, it's called "getting old"), maybe there is no clear pattern as to immune response: susceptibility, response to different treatments, rate of advancement of symptoms, mortality, etc.

Again, something we may find out more of in the future.

[/quote]I assert the nursing home population needs the best protection.  Are they  receiving the best protection?  For example, are they tested with the same frequency accorded our athletes playing team sports?  And virtually all those athletes who test "positive" show few symptoms and return to active competition in two weeks or so.   

PROTECT THE ELDERLY - DO NOT SHUT DOWN THE WORKING AGE
[/quote]

Surely those in nursing homes need the best protection.  We have learned that.  We also know that even those at much younger ages, even children can die without apparent health conditions.  Even a very small percentage can represent a large number of deaths which is why it is imperative, and the highest priority to keep folks from getting infected in the first place.  It is the only factor we have the ability to control successfully (if the will exists).

[Gator]

BC, we agree.  That is why I am bewildered by your strategy of prolonged closing the economy.   The problem is with those individuals who  choose not to practice safe measures when working and socializing,  and then returning home to infect older members of the family. 

The story continues to unfold.   

[jone]

Weekly totals in California substantially below normal flu deaths.   For the entire state, yesterday, COVID deaths were 28.   Moreover, most of those deaths were from lingering symptoms and the disease was contracted months ago. 

It seems that the infection rate is greatly reduced.   But, even more so, it appears that the COVID infections on the West Coast are less virulent than those on the East Coast and not deadly.   This was a predicted outcome of the ongoing mutation of the disease.

Maintain social distancing.   Require masks.   Maintain the restriction on large gatherings.

 

[GQBlues]

Of which much, maybe all the difference can be accounted for by age demographics.  More older people, more deaths.

Not true. If certain population is *living longer* then it's easy to ascertain death comes earlier to those who do not.

CFR is a 'fuzzy' number as we do not know how many have been infected in the US nor Italy, nor any other country.  We know only those that have tested positive.  What might be worthwhile following up on is the CFR of a particular comparable age group but haven't seen such.  Have you?   Also CFR changes over time.  We may know more about CFR when the virus threat is pretty much over.

Funny that. It used to be your gold standard. Body counts tell a different story unfortunately.

The hypothesis the number of testing increase the number of positive cases, thereby decreasing the CFR, then it still goes back to healthcare system. An efficient one will immediately mobilize all facilities to accommodate wider testing, just like our great POTUS have done. Wonderful job, Trump!

Old age is an 'underlying condition' as the immune system wanes with age.

Old age is a state, not a condition. CDC reports fatality is much, much higher on those with at least one underlying condition. After all, not all the elderly stricken with the virus died.

Indeed they don't.  Within the next week or so, deaths per million in the US will overtake deaths per million in Italy.  Currently 567 dpm (US) and 587 dpm (Italy).  This is much earlier than even I expected.

It still doesn't change reality that Italy amass a greater mortality rate than the US. Healthcare system and all...as for Italy vs US, have you prepared those graphs of Montana vs EU yet?

[BC]

BC, we agree.  That is why I am bewildered by your strategy of prolonged closing the economy.   

Actually it is not prolonged. 45 days lockdown and 45 days planned back to 'new normal' which is where we are at.  Infections low enough to test, track and isolate, economy recovering without having to revert to more drastic measures.

Currently here 26,000 infected in isolation or hospital and 107 in intensive care.  Adjusted for US (multiplied by 5.5) population that would represent 143,000 infected and 588 in serious/critical care.  Current figures for the US, however, are 2.5 million active cases that should be in isolation and close to 16,000 in serious/critical care.

Consider the additional burden on the health system and economy for 15 thousand critical care and 2.35 million in isolation, many out of work for a few weeks (or at least should be).  Add to that folks that are more confident going shopping and to work over here due to lower risk.

As for deaths, addressed that a few posts back.

IOW, yes pain of a full lockdown is higher, but the whole recovery timeline is reduced and progress thereafter speedier and less costly.  Really, except for the masks life seems to be quite normal.

[BC]

Not true. If certain population is *living longer* then it's easy to ascertain death comes earlier to those who do not.

You're gonna have to help me with this statement.  Doesn't seem to make much sense logically.  Maybe rephrase?

Funny that. It used to be your gold standard. Body counts tell a different story unfortunately.

I can't recall having dwelled on CFR.  I do recall leaning on infection data, but that was when testing criteria was pretty much same, only folks with serious symptoms going into a hospital environment.  I now consider positivity rates and deaths per capita as the best indicators.

The hypothesis the number of testing increase the number of positive cases, thereby decreasing the CFR, then it still goes back to healthcare system. An efficient one will immediately mobilize all facilities to accommodate wider testing, just like our great POTUS have done. Wonderful job, Trump!

Testing is most effective in the initial stages, to isolate as many as possible before they infect others.  Lockdown serves the same purpose.  Long waits for test results makes testing much less effective.

Old age is a state, not a condition. CDC reports fatality is much, much higher on those with at least one underlying condition. After all, not all the elderly stricken with the virus died.

Old age and underlying conditions go hand in hand.

It still doesn't change reality that Italy amass a greater mortality rate than the US. Healthcare system and all...as for Italy vs US, have you prepared those graphs of Montana vs EU yet?

Feel free to counter the data and analysis I presented with your own data and analysis.  If you feel comparing Montana and EU is relevant, state your hypothesis and present your data.

[GQBlues]

You're gonna have to help me with this statement.  Doesn't seem to make much sense logically.  Maybe rephrase?

No need. It's a very simple fact.

I can't recall having dwelled on CFR.  I do recall leaning on infection data, but that was when testing criteria was pretty much same, only folks with serious symptoms going into a hospital environment.  I now consider positivity rates and deaths per capita as the best indicators

Oh I do...you even expressed trying to find the proper definition for it until the term became trendy..but I know conveniently moving the goal post when convenient is an exercise people resort to now and then.

Testing is most effective in the initial stages, to isolate as many as possible before they infect others.

Oh I agree. We thank Trump for such an amazing leader for this development.

Lockdown serves the same purpose.  Long waits for test results makes testing much less effective.

I don't quite agree. Sheltering the vulnerable to me is so much more efficient overall - all things considered.

Old age and underlying conditions go hand in hand.

Again, not true.

Feel free to counter the data and analysis I presented with your own data and analysis.  If you feel comparing Montana and EU is relevant, state your hypothesis and present your data.

Not for me really, I think comparing states and countries is a very futile exercise, especially when accompanied with graphs.

[BC]

No need. It's a very simple fact.

Maybe someone else can read your statement and help me understand?  Boethius? Gator? anyone?

Oh I do...you even expressed trying to find the proper definition for it until the term became trendy..but I know conveniently moving the goal post when convenient is an exercise people resort to now and then.

No goalposts at all, just getting definitions straight at the time.

Oh I agree. We thank Trump for such an amazing leader for this development.

Plenty of testing, unfortunately late in the game.  We are not in 'initial stages'.  Does serve well to monitor positivity though.

I don't quite agree. Sheltering the vulnerable to me is so much more efficient overall - all things considered.

That is quite ok, we can agree to disagree.

Again, not true.

Ditto last quote.

Not for me really, I think comparing states and countries is a very futile exercise, especially when accompanied with graphs.

Some comparisons may be more helpful than others, depends on the context of the discussion at hand.

BTW, since you seem interested in health and mortality data, here is another source with a lot of variables listed.  Be sure to click on the show 'ALL' at the bottom of the page.
 http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/Italy/United-States/Health