Could now be a good time to buy in Kyiv?

[Trenchcoat]

This may sound like madness but could now (or in the near future/next few years) be the best time to buy property in Kyiv?

Basically I am assuming that the market for property in Ukraine has been impacted by the war. I personally don't really know a great deal what it was like in many areas before and during the war, but I am going to guess it is less now and that property nearest the front hardest hit.

One line of economic thought is that while the crowd moves one way you move the other way, often the seemingly riskiest way. Hence the risky way is not always as risky as some think (though sometimes it is it you get unlucky and lose out) and you gain while others seek seemingly assured safety for a short time and do not so well.

So possibly a good time to buy with the war putting off buyers, particularly from abroad? The outlook for the economy in Ukraine is not so rosy of course and so if not quite at the moment economic issues in Ukraine are likely to stunt Ukrainians ability to purchase property while foreigners mostly tend to stay away due to the war.

Here is a potential apartment at the edge of the historic Podil district in Ukraine near the City centre in Kyiv:

http://realting.com/property-for-sale/ukraine/dmd-consulting/1872483#lg=1&slide=2

That to me looks a lovely area and puts any buyer at the heart of Ukrainian high society I would have thought.

So a good buy?

[ML]

Not a time to buy any properties in or near larger cities in Ukraine.

Never too far from my mind are the two condos wife owns in Kyiv.
One is in second building over from new US Consulate, so  I  think Russians will try to avoid damaging it.

Perhaps OK to  buy in and around  smaller communities.  Wife also has one property there that produces income from crops (she leases it out) and will inherit two more parcels, one with decent house and the other producing crops.  But even there an errant bomb  fell nearby.

Even there, the lack of a bombing is not certain, but probabilities smaller

The pickings for gals would be smaller, but so would be the competion.

Bonus points available because many of the gals can milk cows, gather eggs, grow and can vegetables, fruits, etc.

[Trenchcoat]

My further thoughts on the above apartment, too many I see in Ukraine is that while some can be nice I am not so sure they make the best use of space. Often like the apartment above I see the bed and the lounge located together in the same room lol. I think in the above example a partition studwork wall could easily be erected approximately where the start of the bed is so you're not having to have your bed present while entertaining guests

I think some natural light could still be transmitted into the lounge by either internal glazing at the top of the erected studwork wall and/or on top of the doorway through or a glazed but frosted door or just an archway through. Generally the ceiling light would be more in use in the lounge as a result but still better than having a bed present in the lounge I feel, I am not sure why Ukrainian go for that look?

Another alteration could be the kitchen. It's quite a big kitchen dining room and I think that could be cut down again with a studwork wall in between to potentially form another bedroom at the window end if the layout meant you could insert a doorway potentially into the living room through the wall. I'm not sure why such a large kitchen is needed and light for a kitchen can just be a ceiling light as no one spends their life in the kitchen, even the wife needs to be unchained at some point

Lastly there is the lobby area, I can't tell for sure the layout of the place but again where space is limited a large lobby area or any lobby area can be wasted space. I get that it can be nice to have an area to greet guests, out on shoes, etc but I think it's a unnecessary luxury where space is limited in such a flat. If it's possible to knock a lobby wall down to have a larger lounge that you walk into off the front door then that is a better idea I think. The more space for sofas & seating the better I think.

I for one find Ukrainian ideas on use of space in apartments peculiar. I get that it's supposed to be a flat for one person or a couple at present configuration but I just think even for that the flat could be a whole lot more useful space wise if divided up differently. After all an extra spare bedroom as a study or guest bedroom or for a lodger for rental income can always be handy I think.

[Trenchcoat]

Not a time to buy any properties in or near larger cities in Ukraine.

Never too far from my mind are the two condos wife owns in Kyiv.
One is in second building over from new US Consulate, so  I  think Russians will try to avoid damaging it.

Perhaps OK to  buy in and around  smaller communities.  Wife also has one property there that produces income from crops (she leases it out) and will inherit two more parcels, one with decent house and the other producing crops.  But even there an errant bomb  fell nearby.

Even there, the lack of a bombing is not certain, but probabilities smaller

The pickings for gals would be smaller, but so would be the competion.

Bonus points available because many of the gals can milk cows, gather eggs, grow and can vegetables, fruits, etc.

Thanks for the info ML, what happens if a bomb wipes out your apartment? Do you still own the airspace but not the building?

Well for me it's looking like I won't need it for girl hunting myself. I kind of like the Ukrainian lifestyle so it may well be a place to rent and/or stopover in myself for periods of time. A bit uncertain at the moment so just scouting out the idea in my mind.

The idea of having a bed and lounge all in one still ammuses me. I've heard on here before that FSU people just get it on in bed while either everyone else looks on or they watch TV. I never believed it until seeing their apartments for sale.

[Trenchcoat]

Never too far from my mind are the two condos wife owns in Kyiv.
One is in second building over from new US Consulate, so  I  think Russians will try to avoid damaging it.

Just found this article on compensation for bombed out property in Ukraine. Hopefully it won't be needed by your wife ML but just in case:

http://visitukraine.today/blog/575/compensation-for-housing-destroyed-due-to-the-war-how-it-will-work-in-ukraine

No actual sums set or probably any payments made to date but who knows. I would wonder though if the Ukraine government will try to avoid payouts when it comes to it

[ML]

Thanks for that reference site.

I won't tell wife about it now as it will just add to her depression, thinking about what could happen.  Hasn't yet.

[ML]

I've heard on here before that FSU people just get it on in bed while either everyone else looks on or they watch TV.

I doubt this is/was true. 

But true that many 1-2 room apartments were inhabited by 2-3 even 4 generations.

They did have to have sex in same room as others, but after the lights were out.

One gal told me she and ex husband had sex in hallway outside their apartment for some privacy.

Another gal told me she and ex husband had sex in car on street (well after midnight) in front of their apartment (hoping for some privacy).  But onlookers gathered around car laughing and even tapped on windows, so they had to stop.

- - - - -

Joke: 

Gal says she can only achieve orgasm in dark with doors locked.

Meanwhile husband is pounding on door saying:  Let me in!!

Maybe not always a joke.

[civi68]

Overview of Kiev real estate prices trends.

[Trenchcoat]

Thanks for that reference site.

I won't tell wife about it now as it will just add to her depression, thinking about what could happen.  Hasn't yet.

I'm glad you found it useful ML. I think you are right not to tell the wife until sure what the situation will exactly be, when it will be. In my older years I have become a great believer in not crossing bridges that may never need to be crossed as I learnt that a lot of problems may be gotten into and caused by doing so when they needn't have been.

There's a good chance that most apartments will be left standing and for many this will not be an issue. For those who it is I am not so sure that they will get much if anything from the Ukrainian government as I think that is all the Ukrainian government has to give, promises, at the moment to alleviate he problem. At the end of all of this war I can see the Ukrainian government being skint with little help from tge west.

Essentially I think the US & EU will be too skint themselves to offer Ukraine much help although private companies from the west may do well in Ukraine. The EU has touted much money for rebuilding Ukraine, etc but they are increasingly squeezing it's big contributor members (Germany, France & Italy) for money which they can only do so far and are increasingly getting indebted themselves, a big problem for the future brewing in that one I think.

[Trenchcoat]

I doubt this is/was true. 

But true that many 1-2 room apartments were inhabited by 2-3 even 4 generations.

They did have to have sex in same room as others, but after the lights were out.

One gal told me she and ex husband had sex in hallway outside their apartment for some privacy.

Another gal told me she and ex husband had sex in car on street (well after midnight) in front of their apartment (hoping for some privacy).  But onlookers gathered around car laughing and even tapped on windows, so they had to stop.

- - - - -

Joke: 

Gal says she can only achieve orgasm in dark with doors locked.

Meanwhile husband is pounding on door saying:  Let me in!!

Maybe not always a joke.

Lol, that's pretty funny

Yeah, it's a bit like in that film, 'Enemy at the Gates' where the Soviet soldier guy & girl are having sex together in a big hall of soldiers in the dark under the blanket.

I am finding that Ukrainian women can be a lot more overtly passionate in public then Western Women and that for me is a big plus. I would rather have a girl who seems emphatically into me than a girl who seems restrained and leaves you wondering. While also having a limit as to how far they will go in public so as not to be cheap looking.

[Trenchcoat]

Overview of Kiev real estate prices trends.

Thanks for the video civ, I was unaware of this video though have seen videos by her in the past so it was handy. My thoughts are that a drop in $10k is a lot for many Ukrainians but not so much for us.

As such at the moment I am dubious about buying in due to the risk. I am not so sure that the risk of missiles is as great now that Ukraine has the Patriot and other anti missile systems. However there is always the risk of support for armaments for Ukraine falling off in the future and victory for Ukraine is not a certainty. There is still the possibility the Russia may use Neutron bombs or similar at some point in the future, though I think that will likely be more in Ukrainian troops and less so on populations unless Putler tried for a Hiroshima style, pack it in or be annilated ending. My guess is that if he targets Ukrainian troops that will be less needed as if Ukrainian troops are annilated then they would be overrun and little need.

There is still the chance that by playing the long game Russia may become exhausted of Armaments and Finance and may throw in the towel. However if Russia does take over Ukraine then I am guessing they will confiscate a lot of property of Ukrainian citizens and probably of western foreigners also. No certainty that will occur but I think in such a scenario having investments in property in Ukraine may not look so safe.

So for the risks involved I am thinking the gains for a Westerner are not worth the risk at the moment. A flat that has lost $10k from $100k to $90k is not really a big gain if it goes back up to $100k or so for a Westerner but the $90k on the line by buying the flat is more of a loss to a Westerner if things don't work out. $10k is an ok discount but is not big money to a Westerner to justify the risk I feel, such money can be easily made in the West in a year by throwing in an extra shift for that year and doesn't really buy a whole heap in the west worth putting the stake of $90k up for.

I reckon that by holding on better deals and a more certain climate may be open to Westerners in the future. Either that or Russia takes control and the whole lot is closed off to Westerners anyway.

[civi68]

Trenchcoat, the think about risk is it often happens suddenly. Of course, Ukrainians want to live life as normal as possible and continue making decisions as if things will work out. Bu the risk is there where things could change dramatically.

[Trenchcoat]

Trenchcoat, the think about risk is it often happens suddenly. Of course, Ukrainians want to live life as normal as possible and continue making decisions as if things will work out. But the risk is there where things could change dramatically.

I think you are right civ, Ukrainians are in a different position to us (Westerners) while some will chose to live a life in the west those that stay in Ukraine are kind of committed to where they are. So their lives are kind of all or nothing anyway and they need somewhere to live in Ukraine while it all plays out. It was kind of like in the Coronavirus when mass extinction looked to be on the cards it really just be some a case of nothing else to do but push on even though it was a strange world to wake up into.

What I found most interesting on the video you posted was that Ukrainians weren't as keen on the big open living spaces that are seen as the ideal in the West seeing them as not as useable spaces to the floor space being paid for. I kind of get that as the concept of floor space being needed to be put to maximum worth is what usually dominates here in the UK also. I think in Ukraine moreso though and even a bit over the top there. They kind of have one room apartments with kitchen & bathroom whereas in the UK we tend to have one bedroom apartments with living room, kitchen & bathroom. That difference has always made me wonder how Ukrainians (FSU in general) get on comfortably living in flats often without a dedicated living room or having one room as a living room & one as a bedroom in a two room apartment but not have other bedrooms if one has children, etc.

So the FSU model of apartments has always looked a bit too cramped to me. As an English guy looking to buy say with wife & kids I would probably be looking towards a three room apartment at least to be able to comfortably live there over a decent period of time. I just don't get how they all squeeze into one or two room apartments, it seems strange to me.

[ML]

I just don't get how they all squeeze into one or two room apartments, it seems strange to me.

You are ignoring . . . they had/have no choice other than to squeeze in.

[Trenchcoat]

You are ignoring . . . they had/have no choice other than to squeeze in.

That is true, I recall seeing when studying History in High School a photo of what it was like before the first world war, before Soviet times, it could be even worse with many families/people crammed into one room. So a step up from those times for many of the urban poor.

In the west we are used to the luxury of a bedroom each plus a lounge but when that is not available you go with what is I guess and make do. Probably a bit like going camping and all sleeping/living within the same tent, you kind of accept it and the space takes on a bit different meaning and usage. That becomes the norm and nothing probably thought any different or unusual of it.

[Bee Farmer]

Why are you wanting to buy?  As an investment?  Are you wanting to flip it in 2 years?  Are you planning on buying and holding, with the idea of your heirs inheriting it?

They say the best time to buy is when blood is in the streets. 

Are you wanting to buy now, and resell in a couple years, hoping the war is over?  I would advise against this.  Even if the war ends, it will take more than 2 years before you see much price appreciation.  So what you would really be doing, is buying it now, hoping for a small price increase, and being able to sell it in a couple years.  That's really risky, with little potential reward.  What's you alternative? An easy 5% in safe investments?

Are you planning on buying now, living there a couple years, and selling?  There's still a substantial risk on how easily you can liquidate your money in 2 years.  While it would give you a place to stay for a couple years, it's still really risky.

Even if the war ends today, a lot of infrastructure in Ukraine is destroyed.  It won't bounce back.  Over 10% of the population has left the country, and created new lives in elsewhere.  Don't hold your breath on them moving back.  Ukraine's demographics are bad.  They don't have a young generation coming up.  They stopped having kids when the Soviet Union fell apart in the 1990's. 

I think the best case scenario is if you buy now, you sell in a few years and break even.
I think it is unlikely to be able to sell at a profit in 2 years.
I think the most likely scenario is that you will lose 10%-20% of what you paid, if you can find a buyer. (and that's a big if)

So if you are going to lose 10%-20% of $100,000 then do it the smart way.

Find a house in a village or small town that you can buy for $10,000 or $15,000 that is livable and is within driving distance of Kiev or another major city.  For what you save on the price of the house, you are still money ahead to drive a bunch.
In 2 years, if you can't find a buyer...you still have the original $80,000 in your pocket, plus whatever interest you earned in the meantime.  With an apartment in the city, your money is tied up if you can't find a buyer.  You may have to offer an even bigger discount if you want to sell it.

Even if you have to walk away from that $10,000 or $15,000 village house, you can walk away and let it rot to the ground...and you will still be money ahead than if you bought an apartment in the city and lost 10%-20% on it.  With a cheap village house, you know the maximum amount you can lose, up front. 

I think with the current (and future) situation in Ukraine, you would be better off to try to minimize your losses, rather than to be looking for a profit.  You can earn about 5% on CD's, T-bills, or a MMA.  Compared to that, how high of a return would you need to have in order to stomach the higher risk in Ukraine?
If you just want a cheap vacation house in Ukraine that you never plan on selling - now is probably a decent time to buy, especially if you look at villages or small towns in areas unlikely to be destroyed by Russia.

[Steven1971]

http://youtu.be/U43eEGF3SqY?si=HO-Ad5GMWXpSLoaA

There are some other interesting videos on this channel updating an old house in a Ukrainian village.

[Trenchcoat]

http://youtu.be/U43eEGF3SqY?si=HO-Ad5GMWXpSLoaA

There are some other interesting videos on this channel updating an old house in a Ukrainian village.

That's a really interesting video Steven thank you for posting. Wow, a village house for $400!!! At that price I could buy the whole village!

I recall that for such purchases a Ukrainian wife or similar is needed since a foreigner cannot own agricultural land/buildings. Possibly he may be able to jointly own then or possibly through setting up a company. That stuff I am not up on so would have to look into.

Potentially at such a price both options could be looked into, a nice pad in the centre of Kyiv and a country retreat to get away from it all. Still though at the moment I agree with the above it's bit the right time. A cheap country retreat as mentioned us probably least risky so long as not bear the front I doubt it's going to be a priority target unless unfortunate enough to have a wayward missile.

Stuff out in Ukraine seems to be getting tense at the moment with the government looking that they are after trying to get anyone they can for the front. Something tells me that things have bit been going their best and although Russia might still be sustaining some losses Ukraine's losses are likely significant also hence the call for half a million men etc recently.

So buying towards the end or just after the end seems to be a good position to look for.