The Struggle For Ukraine

[ML]

Estimates are that up to 2 million German women were raped by Soviet soldiers.

What are the estimates of Soviet women raped by German soldiers earlier in the war ?

[Chelseaboy]

German women suffered the largest mass rape in history  ...this was from Soviet soldiiers...google it and read it for yourself.


SOVIET war correspondent Natalya Gesse said Soviet soldiers were raping females from eight to eighty.

[Rosco]

For what it's worth, I cant see an invasion happening. In fact it sounds absurd.

[Boethius]

It's not absurd.  It is unlikely, but a decade ago, so was a Russian invasion of Crimea, and so was Russian backed forces shooting a European plane full of civilians out of the sky.

[Rosco]

It's not absurd.  It is unlikely, but a decade ago, so was a Russian invasion of Crimea, and so was Russian backed forces shooting a European plane full of civilians out of the sky.

A couple of debatable things said above but without getting into those discussions again, I guess I’m saying that I’d bet my virtual house on an invasion, not happening.

Time will tell.

[Trenchcoat]

British troops moving into Germany, looks like things are hotting up:

http://www.ft.com/content/1c56235e-dcc6-4505-851c-8e904b46339b

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-army-returns-to-germany-in-face-of-russian-threat-bhs7lmnsv

[Trenchcoat]

Possible Russian dirty tricks going down in Ukraine:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245811/amp/Russia-plotting-coup-Ukraine-December-Ukranian-president-makes-dramatic-speech.html

Might be the least bloodiest way out for them if it did go down.

[Trenchcoat]

More news on further troop build up on Ukraine's border:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10279477/Ukraine-Russia-border-Satellite-images-reveal-Putins-troop-build-continues.html

They reckon early 2022 for an Invasion. What are the odds an Invasion might take place on New Year's Day or possibly even Christmas Day?

[Trenchcoat]

An interesting article on the current state of affairs on the Ukrainian front line:

http://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-front.html

Looks like the sh*t could really hit the fan soon.

[Chelseaboy]

It's now making headline news on both the BBC and Sky News...the general feeling seems to be the talks today between Biden and Putin haven't really de-escalated the situation.


Putin has made demands and was basically told to do one.


The Sky reporter in Washington reported that there WILL be NATO ( including USA ) military boots on the ground in Ukraine if Russia invades.It won't be the same situation as when Russian troops invaded Crimea,and all the west did was impose economic sanctions on Russia.


NATO troops will also build-up in former FSU countries such as Latvia.


USA is said to have an understanding with Germany that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be shut if Russia invades Ukraine.


Seems NATO has had a gutful of Putin's posturing.

[ML]

USA is said to have an understanding with Germany that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be shut if Russia invades Ukraine..

And here I thought Germany and some other European countries needed that gas.

[Trenchcoat]

It's now making headline news on both the BBC and Sky News...the general feeling seems to be the talks today between Biden and Putin haven't really de-escalated the situation.


Putin has made demands and was basically told to do one.


The Sky reporter in Washington reported that there WILL be NATO ( including USA ) military boots on the ground in Ukraine if Russia invades.It won't be the same situation as when Russian troops invaded Crimea,and all the west did was impose economic sanctions on Russia.


NATO troops will also build-up in former FSU countries such as Latvia.


USA is said to have an understanding with Germany that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be shut if Russia invades Ukraine.


Seems NATO has had a gutful of Putin's posturing.

I'm not sure how many troops NATO has stationed out there but my guess is that it may well be too few to go up against Russia's army if it came to that. A few thousand troops scattered here and there isn't likely to be enough is my thinking. I reckon that the US, UK, etc need to mobilise and move a lot of troops over to form an army strong enough to stand a chance of stopping Russian troops. Otherwise they could either be sat watching on the sidelines in the EU or be wiped out by superior numbers.

My guess is that they really need to move into Ukraine in big numbers if not already (which I doubt) as otherwise Russia's army will likely easily overun Ukraine's without Ukraine inflicting enough damage. If that scenario goes down then pointlessly losing Ukraine's army may make winning all the harder.

[JohnDearGreen]

If that scenario goes down then pointlessly losing Ukraine's army may make winning all the harder.

The goal of the moment is to create instability, not to take Ukraine.   The buildup cost Putin $130 million, but he can afford it.  More debt borrowing for Ukraine.

[GQBlues]

The Sky reporter in Washington reported that there WILL be NATO ( including USA ) military boots on the ground in Ukraine if Russia invades.

NATO, lol. Since when did Ukraine become a NATO member?

You get a democrat back at the WH, and here we are, and there goes Victoria Nuland back in Kiev continuing what ‘we’ (US) started in 2014.

I can only hope Biden’s dementia stays true to form and Hunter is too busy milking China’s cow so they won’t waste any American kids life anymore halfway around our globe. No blood for oil and all that talk, remember? Hell, if any, let antifa volunteer, even blm. Do an Obama move. Just keep the media out of it, and bomb the crap out of Russia and take over the country, Libya style. Oh wait, Russia have more guns than Libya. Lol.

Does no one even see the irony in this? For almost two years your politicians got most of you so scared of dying, they had you and your lot submit to an experimental soup injected in your bodies yet, in a moment’s whim and greed, they won’t hesitate to send you or your lot get your brains blown out fighting for their zany political gamesmanship.

If Europe wanna grab Ukraine’s market as their own, let them sacrifice their vaccinated kids for their politicians gain. Outside of the UK, I seriously doubt any of them have the fortitude stupidity to do so, LMAO.

Georgia is a much smaller nation than Ukraine, they stood up to Russia with no ones help, sheeesh. They got smoked but at least they are still a free country today. Me hopes they leave Ukraine alone. They wanna be free from Russia, let them fight for it. Let Georgia be their inspiration.

Plus remember what happened at the onset of the civil war, at their darkest moment when Ukraine soldiers desperately needed supplies like food, arms, accessories, etc. The US sent them things like MREs, night vision goggles, etc. Guess what happened to them? Yup, it hit the black market. That should clearly tell you what you’re dealing with.

Besides, the reality is, trying to help and save Ukraine from Russia only renders Ukraine ripe for China. Out…fire…frying pan. I mean look at the case with Italy. Italy is now merely renting their country from its new landlord - China. In some ways, the US is heading in the same direction. Give Hunter some time and we can be there in no time at all.

[fathertime]

Besides, the reality is, trying to help and save Ukraine from Russia only renders Ukraine ripe for China. Out…fire…frying pan. I mean look at the case with Italy. Italy is now merely renting their country from its new landlord - China. In some ways, the US is heading in the same direction. Give Hunter some time and we can be there in no time at all.

I haven't been keeping track.   In what way does china own so much of Italy? 

[fathertime]

NATO, lol. Since when did Ukraine become a NATO member?

You get a democrat back at the WH, and here we are, and there goes Victoria Nuland back in Kiev continuing what ‘we’ (US) started in 2014.

 

I'm not sure what we really have to offer Ukraine.  "Made in China" goods, that enrich mostly china with a little cut to the US companies.     Of course I have read that we are threatening the nord stream 2 if russia makes one false move. That way we can get back to selling our expensive natural resources to europe. 

Fathertime! 

Fathertime!

[GQBlues]

I'm not sure what we really have to offer Ukraine.  "Made in China" goods, that enrich mostly china with a little cut to the US companies.     Of course I have read that we are threatening the nord stream 2 if russia makes one false move. That way we can get back to selling our expensive natural resources to europe. 

Fathertime! 

Fathertime!

None. Who said we have anything to offer Ukraine other than be a Russian PITA? The same way Russia made CUBA one for us.

But China can certainly chomp at the bits. Not too many places in the world that is as arable as Ukraine. Perfect place to harvest their love of their scared tofu, and raise pigs. Ever had the delicious Tofu with Pork? Yum, baby! China already owns 13 million hectare of Ukraine's farm land. That's literally 9% of Ukraine's farmland, LMAO. This way they won't have to rely on the US & Brazil for soy imports. It'll be cheaper in Ukraine, and with another 40+ million consumer to buy Chinese goods - win, win baby.

[ML]

China already owns 13 million hectare of Ukraine's farm land. That's literally 9% of Ukraine's farmland, LMAO.

Are you sure of this ?
I think lease rather than own as Ukraine still has prohibition against foreign ownership of farm land.

Even just today over breakfast wifey was telling of her concern about her inheritance of farm land when her parents pass away given her USA citizenship.  But if Ukraine gets around to overturning their law against dual citizenship, she will be in the clear.

[GQBlues]

Are you sure of this ?
I think lease rather than own as Ukraine still has prohibition against foreign ownership of farm land.

Even just today over breakfast wifey was telling of her concern about her inheritance of farm land when her parents pass away given her USA citizenship.  But if Ukraine gets around to overturning their law against dual citizenship, she will be in the clear.

It probably depends on whom you ask. Ukraine will likely tell you the deal was a 50-year lease. For China, OTOH, it's an outright ownership, as in 'it's bought' and paid for. Then there's the missing *000*s. China believes its 3,000,000 hectare, while Ukraine (KSG Agro) insists it's a mere 3,000.


 


http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-disputed-deal-to-farm-5-of-the-ukraine-2013-9

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1314902/ukraine-become-chinas-largest-overseas-farmer-3m-hectare-deal?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=1314902

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/china-claims-to-have-bought-a-huge-chunk-of-ukraine-41509/

[GQBlues]

[Boethius]

It probably depends on whom you ask. Ukraine will likely tell you the deal was a 50-year lease. For China, OTOH, it's an outright ownership, as in 'it's bought' and paid for. Then there's the missing *000*s. China believes its 3,000,000 hectare, while Ukraine (KSG Agro) insists it's a mere 3,000.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-disputed-deal-to-farm-5-of-the-ukraine-2013-9

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1314902/ukraine-become-chinas-largest-overseas-farmer-3m-hectare-deal?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=1314902

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/china-claims-to-have-bought-a-huge-chunk-of-ukraine-41509/

By law, agricultural land in Ukraine can be leased, but not sold, to foreigners.  In fact, even Ukrainian citizens could not own large tracts of land before July 1, 2021.  The law was changed on that date to allow Ukrainians to own up to 100 hectares of land.  Sales to foreigners are still prohibited, and the law can only be changed by referendum.  So, the land is leased no matter what the Chinese say they believe.

[Trenchcoat]

So it looks like it's all up this month or so on whether anything will happen about Ukraine:

http://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-nato-prepares-for-possible-russian-invasion-as-diplomats-fear-talks-will-fail-12512624

If talks fail then who knows possibly some sort of invasion in February maybe. The article seems to think it may be a limited invasion, maybe they are thinking just into the Donbass. That however I think would show Russia as invading territory with its own troops and taking what is not theirs. Currently they have been fighting that war by proxy so that would be a hostile stance for just a small piece of territory likely provoking full scale sanctions and possibly a new cold war.

So if the stakes are high might Putin go for more, if he invades Donbass then Ukraine's military could likely see itself as facing no alternative but to take them on as best as possible. So possibly might Russia take the whole of eastern Ukraine or all of Ukraine?

[Chelseaboy]

After a four hour meeting with Russians today..things are not looking good.


NATO's Secretary General Mr Stoltenberg said after talks had finished that there is a "real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe" but that the Alliance "will do what we can to prevent any such scenario ".


"If Russia once more uses force against Ukraine and further invades Ukraine then we have to seriously look into the need to further increase our presence in the eastern part of the Alliance."









Meanwhile there are reports that Russia has been flying Helicopters to the Ukrainian border to airlift troops into Ukraine after mild weather has transformed the normally rock-hard frozen ground at this time of year into a muddy quagmire in which the Russian Tanks cannot roll into Ukraine.

[Trenchcoat]

After a four hour meeting with Russians today..things are not looking good.


NATO's Secretary General Mr Stoltenberg said after talks had finished that there is a "real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe" but that the Alliance "will do what we can to prevent any such scenario ".


"If Russia once more uses force against Ukraine and further invades Ukraine then we have to seriously look into the need to further increase our presence in the eastern part of the Alliance."









Meanwhile there are reports that Russia has been flying Helicopters to the Ukrainian border to airlift troops into Ukraine after mild weather has transformed the normally rock-hard frozen ground at this time of year into a muddy quagmire in which the Russian Tanks cannot roll into Ukraine.

Looks like Ukraine's luck is in with the mud CB. If Ukraine has any sense they'll try adding to it as best they can. It probably won't be enough to stop Russia's army but it may put them off if it looks like they will get an awkward time of it.

Looks like NATO is just threatening to load up troops on the bordering nations if Ukraine is invaded then and not intervene in Ukraine. I'm not sure that is going to be enough as it's more or less saying they are going to stand by on the side lines.

Mixed messages still coming if Russia will invade or not, NATO's position on the side lines seems pretty set now.

Possibly Russia may run out of steam in terms of moving towards an Invasion. Can't see there is much for Russia to gain now unless they really are intent on invading Ukraine, NATO isn't seeming ready to do deals or keep out the border states. My guess is if Russia's army stays put in the coming days/weeks then there may be a good chance they going to invade as otherwise they've nothing to gain by sitting there if they aren't getting anything from NATO.

[Trenchcoat]

Thinking this through a bit more I reckon there could be pretty good chance Russia may invade. If Putin isn't going to get what he wants out of NATO then they've essentially called his bluff, if he is bluffing then he'll pull his troops away, that's going to cause him embarrassment though, possibly humiliation. In the summer he stuck more to the exercises excuse but this time he's been telling Ukraine/the west that they are there because of NATO's expansion as he see's it.  If he backs down and pulls troops this time for the second time he's lost and that manoeuvre won't work again unless he really does invade. So it may push him towards invading, Ukraine is essentially there for the taking now that NATO says it is going to stand by, so it's just the Russian army against Ukraine's army. Ukraine's army probably won't last long on that score. They've got arms and training from the west in recent years so may cause Russia's army some damage but ultimately they're a lot weaker than Russia's army.

Possibly Russia may wait to see if the mud will dry but odds are they could invade pretty soon. That's not great for me of course as if Ukraine becomes Russian I'll need to pay for a visa to visit. Belarus is difficult & more expensive to get to so that leaves just Georgia, pretty religious apparently and the stans further away so more time and expense there.