The Struggle For Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

Apparently 80 percent of Putin's forces now in attack position:

http://news.sky.com/story/amp/ukraine-enters-state-of-emergency-as-pentagon-says-80-of-russian-forces-in-attack-position-12549749

As I said the Separatists 'asked' Putin for military help which he was all too willing to oblige.

My guess is that they are drawing up battle plans now for the attack, most will have been completed probably by now.

So probably little time left now before Russia attacks. My guess is that they will hit them from all sides at once so it's too much for Ukraine to deal with. The Donbas & Luhansk just serving as an excuse for Putin to state the need to take out Ukraine as a whole as a belligerent nation.

My guess is that they will hit Ukraine's main army in the east with a lot of missiles and in a few other places as well before they send in ground forces. I think that has become almost certain now since we sent them the NLAW's.

I personally see Ukrainian Army casualties as being the highest, unfortunately likely in the tens of thousands almost instantly, could easily be 50,000-100,000 or more. Such a loss of life would be terrible so I would hope otherwise but fear that will be the case.

I think Putin will surround the cities and likely starve them out, at which point with the loss of most of their army the Ukrainian politicians, etc who are open to Russia and themselves gaining lucrative positions in the new regime will likely cone forward to 'negotiate'. Putin will then probably take the bits of Ukraine he wants to incorporate into Russia and give the puppet government his terms which they will agree to.

My guess is that he won't probably try and incorporate all of Ukraine into Russia to avoid a lot of civilian bloodshed by entering all of their major cities, that and a smashed economy. On top of that it would probably avoid terrorism, insurgencies, etc. Otherwise Putin will have to tackle many Ukrainian citizens armed to the teeth in the cities, blasting and clearing as he goes. That is likely to be dangerous for his army and take a lot of time and loss of population & economy. I don't think he'll want to do that its not really worth his while. I think a report a week or so ago said that he reckoned the Russian Army could accomplish the Invasion in about 48 hours. That would tie up with the scenario I've presented. Putin has no doubt seen how it went down for the US, UK, etc in Iraq an won't want those problems on his hands for a long period of time.

Anyway, that's how I reckon it will go down, he won't be up for a WWI or WWII style shooting contest with Ukrainians is my thoughts, he'll keep out of that and use more modern warfare.

[rwd123]

Looks like VVP lost his patience.

Ukraine is an undeniable failed state, and arguably a failed society. In some respects it is comparable to the Balkans. The difference now it is Russia putting its foot down and not NATO.

Welcome to the real world. The ability to put impart military might is still trumps BS. Crimea has been part of the Russian Federation for eight years and that's not going to change. The policy of 'unrecognized' buffer states (South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria) has been expanded. This is by and large a direct response to NATO advancement toward Russia's borders.

To the winner takes the spoils. Russia comprehensively won the conflict in 2014. The West still haven't accepted the "L". The best NATO can muster is a dirty conflict in Donbas. The best the US/UK can do is announce further sanctions. The EU can do jack shit as it is reliant on Russian (energy) exports.

The USD/RUB is nearing new highs. Will be interesting to see if resistance is broken and the RUB declines significantly. If it does then RF real estate is looking like a speculative play to me.


 

[fathertime]

 

  The last thing I would hate to see is having the US having to stick its snotty nose in this current volatile situation -  AGAIN. There was plenty enough Ukrainians, and Russians, that died in 2014 bloodying our hands with it. Enough.

Dude, the US doesn't have a nose...it has a snout, and it ain't snot, it's shit. 

Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

. He might be in for a shock with those pretty lil things and get more than he paid bargained for.

Gaunty, you are really underestimating good old TC.  Remember during the great toilet paper crisis of 2020, he is the one who had babes lining up down the block for his TP supply, trading in their bodily wares.   If I recall correctly, he was such a shrewd capitalist that as the crisis deepened, he started charging them by the inch and ply.    If TC wants value with these escaping Ukrainian babes, he will find a way. 

Fathertime!

[tfcrew]

  The last thing I would hate to see is having the US having to stick its snotty nose in this current volatile situation....

 
 

[John Gaunt]

Gaunty, you are really underestimating good old TC.  Remember during the great toilet paper crisis of 2020, he is the one who had babes lining up down the block for his TP supply, trading in their bodily wares.   If I recall correctly, he was such a shrewd capitalist that as the crisis deepened, he started charging them by the inch and ply.    If TC wants value with these escaping Ukrainian babes, he will find a way. 

Fathertime!

Oh dear.

My post was in response to a comment about TC doing better in Thailand and is about pretty Thai ladies and Ladyboys, not hot Ukrainian women.
As far as Trench and toilet paper goes, thank you for pointing that out. I think that connection is very apt.

[John Gaunt]

Crimea was an autonomous republic within the Ukrainian state.  It was not an independent country.  It was a subdivision of Ukraine.  Yes, it was invaded by Russia in 2014.

Exactly.
No semantics here.

[John Gaunt]

Putin and Russia strongly condemned in the UN by practically every country for their illegal actions in Crimea and Occupied regions of Donbas.
Great speech by the UKR Foreign Minister.

[fathertime]

 

One of the funnier cartoons I've seen. 
I'm going to have to try greeting clients in that position at my shop.

Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

It seems a full blown war is erupting the US stock exchange has flipped out..  If the earliest of reports are accurate Putin is at all playing around and has threatened US assets as well.  It seems Putin has indeed decided to go big.  Old Trenchcoat may have been right this one time.

Fathertime! 

[rwd123]

The USD/RUB is nearing new highs. Will be interesting to see if resistance is broken and the RUB declines significantly. If it does then RF real estate is looking like a speculative play to me.

USD/RUB exceeded and closed on a new high. Watching this over the next few days. Not sure the market has already priced in prospective sanctions.

Prior to actions in 2014 USD/RUB was around 35, now it is 84 (was 74 at the start of the year). RCB may need to hike rates to keep inflation in check. Unlike most western countries they haven't adopted ZIRP so may go into recession but keep their currency functional.

Not sure the RF will be cut off from SWIFT but if that happens the RUB may drop like a stone. The only way for ordinary people to get money in and out of the country in that situation is likely to be physical transit.

[John Gaunt]

To all those with family in Ukraine, my thoughts and prayers for them.
What Putin has done is beyond the pale.

[Trenchcoat]

FULL SCALE INVASION OF UKRAINE HAS BEGUN!!!!!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60503037

Just as I predicted last night Russia has chosen to attack from all sides all at once and has now launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine! Russian troops have breached the Ukrainian border in a number of places and Ukrainian troops have come under missile attack. So much for the military training exercises Russia was just claiming it was up to, shows that Putin can't be trusted. Invasion of the whole of Ukraine is fully underway now, no longer any doubt.

[John Gaunt]

FULL SCALE INVASION OF UKRAINE HAS BEGUN!!!!!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60503037

Just as I predicted last night Russia has chosen to attack from all sides all at once and has now launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine! Russian troops have breached the Ukrainian border in a number of places and Ukrainian troops have come under missile attack. So much for the military training exercises Russia was just claiming it was up to, shows that Putin can't be trusted. Invasion of the whole of Ukraine is fully underway now, no longer any doubt.

Trench, just stfu.

[Trenchcoat]

Trench, just stfu.

Putin's going about it exactly as I said just hours before hand last night Gaunty. If Putin holds to what he says he's not going to take the whole of Ukraine, it will be as I predicted a puppet government in what remains of Ukraine with them agreeing to Putin's terms. Putin states he is aiming to demilitarise Ukraine so as thought he will hammer Ukraine's military and just leave the new Ukrainian puppet government with whatever remains of the smashed military.

Apparently a number of sites have been hit, military installations and airports including Boryspill International Airport near Kyiv, know it well obviously but no chance of anyone going there now.

Civilians in Kyiv hopped in their cars and piled out of Kyiv moments after Putin's broadcast. Again a complete stompede towards the border and likely too late. Many believed Putin would not invade in a full scale invasion only to be proved wrong this morning.

No doubt a lot more will be going down on this today with it all moving pretty fast.

[John Gaunt]

Putin's going about it exactly as I said just hours before hand last night Gaunty. If Putin holds to what he says he's not going to take the whole of Ukraine, it will be as I predicted a puppet government in what remains of Ukraine with them agreeing to Putin's terms. Putin states he is aiming to demilitarise Ukraine so as thought he will hammer Ukraine's military and just leave the new Ukrainian puppet government with whatever remains of the smashed military.

Apparently a number of sites have been hit, military installations and airports including Boryspill International Airport near Kyiv, know it well obviously but no chance of anyone going there now.

Civilians in Kyiv hopped in their cars and piled out of Kyiv moments after Putin's broadcast. Again a complete stompede towards the border and likely too late. Many believed Putin would not invade in a full scale invasion only to be proved wrong this morning.

No doubt a lot more will be going down on this today with it all moving pretty fast.

Nobody’s interested in your BS parroting taken from the Daily Wail and claiming it as your own analysis.

[John Gaunt]

Meanwhile, in real news, about 40 UKR casualties near Chernighiv where the Ukrainian army is holding the Russians back.

[Trenchcoat]

A rundown of the full scale invasion so far:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10546123/How-Ukraine-invasion-unfolded-minute-minute.html

[Trenchcoat]

Nobody’s interested in your BS parroting taken from the Daily Wail and claiming it as your own analysis.

I assure you that wasn't taken from any other source than my own noggin Gaunty.

[Trenchcoat]

Just some more accounts on the full scale Invasion:

BBC News - Ukraine invasion: Kyiv residents seek shelter as blasts hit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60506712

So far it looks like Putin is after Kharkiv with Russian paratroopers dropped there. It's very near the Russian border so very vulnerable. Odessa may have Russian paratroopers dropped there also and seems to be an immediate target also. Russian Tanks have apparently been rolling up from Crimea likely towards Kherson and Separatists in the East launching an all out offensive supported by Russian planes etc. Missiles have apparently been landing everywhere with hundreds dead already.

Our Yankee friends on this forum will no doubt just be waking up to this news in the States and may come as quite a shock to some of them.

[Chelseaboy]

As I've exemplified in more than one occasion about you, pretty obvious the 'ability to read and comprehend' isn't mutual.


Invasion yet? 

18 people killed in Odesa by missile strikes today


Ukraine being attacked by Russia by land sea and air.


Invasion yet ? 


Putin/Hitler publicly threatens the rest of the World not to intervene in his slaughter of Ukrainians


Another Putin apologist shown up to be totally stupid and gullible.

[Chelseaboy]

Looks like VVP lost his patience.

Ukraine is an undeniable failed state, and arguably a failed society. In some respects it is comparable to the Balkans. The difference now it is Russia putting its foot down and not NATO.

Welcome to the real world. The ability to put impart military might is still trumps BS. Crimea has been part of the Russian Federation for eight years and that's not going to change. The policy of 'unrecognized' buffer states (South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria) has been expanded. This is by and large a direct response to NATO advancement toward Russia's borders.

To the winner takes the spoils. Russia comprehensively won the conflict in 2014. The West still haven't accepted the "L". The best NATO can muster is a dirty conflict in Donbas. The best the US/UK can do is announce further sanctions. The EU can do jack shit as it is reliant on Russian (energy) exports.

The USD/RUB is nearing new highs. Will be interesting to see if resistance is broken and the RUB declines significantly. If it does then RF real estate is looking like a speculative play to me.

Sounds like you're relishing what's happening in Ukraine and cheerleading murderous Putin.


Did you get dumped/rejected by a Ukrainian woman ?


Or maybe you just admire tyrants.

[Brillynt]

My wife was able to talk to her family in Lugansk this morning. Their internet is intermittent and slow, but they are able to message each other. They say the army pushed out from Lugansk heading west. The fighting is happening in Ukrainian territory, so they are safe for the moment. This was the only good news, that family is ok.

I have spent a lot of time in Ukraine and I love that country only second to my own. I can only hope that this invasion ends quickly to limit the amount of bloodshed. It hurts to see places that I have been to multiple times with people being killed and injured. I felt the same when the fighting started in 2014.  Seeing the utter destruction of the Donetsk airport where I met my wife in person for the first time made my heart ache.

It still amazes me the depths of depravity that politicians and dictators will go to get what they want. I guess I should stop being surprised by the brutality of the human animal.

I can only hope that the people of Ukraine can survive and live through what is happening. My prayers go out to the people of Ukraine that are being subjected to the stupidity of tin pot dictators.

This is what happens when you have idiots in charge of countries.

[Chelseaboy]

Ukraine reporting 40 of their troops killed and that they've killed 50 Russian troops.

[fathertime]

Well now that it appears Putin is going to go big, it may be that all of Ukraine is going to be his goal.  It seems that trying to occupy a country that size would be terribly difficult without significant support from within.

It seems pretty clear that China is going to support Russia from a financial standpoint.  China has 1.4 billion people, more than all of Europe.   China needs energy and food.  Russia has both.  If we (The US) further agitate, demonize, or try to sanction China I now wouldn't be surprised if they decided to envelope Taiwan once and for all. 

Russia promises severe and unseen consequences for nations that interfere in their dismembering of Ukraine.  One can guess that Putin would be willing to take the fight to a foreign land (US soil, UK soil, etc etc), meaning bombing. Here in the US, we have been insulated for decades from real war, and it seems we want to remain that way.  Russia wouldn't be able to 'win' a large-scale war, but their threats are probably real.   

Looking back at now distant history, the US had created an oil embargo and froze Japanese assets, and Japan retaliated unexpectedly at Pearl Harbor. Trying to use power and influence to hold nations back creates rancor and eventually war.    Nowadays with nuclear weapons floating around, the dynamics have changed, and major war has been off the table due to MAD. 

  China calls for talks on Ukraine, OKs Russian wheat imports

China called Thursday for talks to resolve the Ukraine crisis and avoided criticizing President Vladimir Putin’s attack while, in a step that could blunt the impact of Western sanctions, Beijing also approved imports of Russian wheat.

....Beijing has blamed Washington and its European allies for the conflict over Ukraine.

“All parties should work for peace instead of escalating the tension or hyping up the possibility of war,” Hua said. “Those parties who were busy condemning others, what have they done? Have they persuaded others?"....

http://www.yahoo.com/news/china-calls-talks-over-ukraine-085706369.html 

Fathertime!