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Author Topic: The Struggle For Ukraine  (Read 155797 times)

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Offline BC

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2250 on: June 23, 2022, 11:56:26 AM »
Hey FP,

Oh, I think the damage is considerable and will get worse as other countries re-orient their energy needs and sources.  The real damage goes far beyond the immediate effects being felt now.  It will take decades, or more for RU to build back any meaningful level of international trust necessary to be a part of, and participate in the world economy.  The only thing keeping them afloat is natural resources created millions of years ago.

So yes, I think such fits the definition of a basket case.

Offline Boethius

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2251 on: June 23, 2022, 12:42:52 PM »
Since that time they've branched out and published 'general news' from a variety of sources. They still author their own content. Unlike mainstream media they are genuinely independent, hence "alt-right". After all they called Trump in 2016 when everyone else was gushing over President Hillary.

I'm not 'praising' the Russian economy, I just don't think it is in as bad a shape as western talking heads want to make you believe.


You must not have access to much American media.  Other than MSNBC, no one was "gushing" over President Hillary.  Everything at the time predicted a close election.  Michael Moore predicted a Trump win very early, and he is a huge Democrat supporter.  Bill Clinton wanted to campaign in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, as he saw those were extremely tight races, and believed she needed more campaigning there in the last weeks of the election.  He was overruled by Robby Mook.


Go read Russian Twitter reports.  I don't post on Twitter, and have only started following a couple of analysts during the war.  But if you read Russian posts, the economy is suffering, particularly food prices, which have jumped far more than they have in my country.  It's not comparable to inflation in the West. 
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline rwd123

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2252 on: June 23, 2022, 04:32:03 PM »
If I send you RUB, will you send me EUR or USD, and at what exchange rate? What is the Ruble really worth to you?
What rate are you offering?

Russians still travel (hello USD). Plus not all banks are sanctioned.




Offline rwd123

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2253 on: June 23, 2022, 04:41:54 PM »
It will take decades, or more for RU to build back any meaningful level of international trust necessary to be a part of, and participate in the world economy.
China, India, Brazil, the Middle East, most of Africa and Asia disagree. It's only OECD countries that have gone BPD over Russia. An orientalist world view may overlook this.

Offline Boethius

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2254 on: June 23, 2022, 05:52:29 PM »
All Russian banks have now been cut from SWIFT.

Whats the Middle East going to buy from Russia?  Russias biggest export market was the EU.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2022, 10:28:30 PM by Boethius »
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline rwd123

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2255 on: June 23, 2022, 10:53:18 PM »
Whats the MIddle East going to buy from Russia?
Food, food, food. They don't want another Arab Spring! Here's info on wheat: http://www.zol.ru/n/365ea

Gold. http://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/gold-investing/top-gold-producing-countries/

Armaments. http://www.mei.edu/publications/russia-looks-middle-east-boost-arms-exports

Any domestic production/development may use Russian commodities (iron, steel, wood, materials, etc.). There are a limited number of nuclear reactors in the Middle East, but Russia can build them and supply uranium.

The Middle East doesn't need oil but India does. Oh wait... http://www.livemint.com/news/india/indias-oil-imports-from-russia-jumps-50-times-accounts-for-10-of-all-import-11655998970715.html

Yup, nothing to sell... maybe matryoshka dolls.





Offline BC

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2256 on: June 23, 2022, 11:37:18 PM »
rwd123,

I can agree some countries may want to buy grain from Russia, even gold.  Does RU insist on payment in Ruble from these countries? hehehe...

As for armaments, your link from an article posted in 2019 is outdated, likely much different nowadays due to 'domestic consumption.  I highly doubt any arms are being exported.

Sure, oil sells as well, but RU is having to give hefty discounts.  RU will still make some money on it though.

I doubt any country will be buying nuclear technology from RU going forward aside from any deals already made/under construction.  Are there any?

Oh, and by the way, you were the one touting that the Rubble was good value.  It's up to you to entice me and not the other way 'round.  Show me how valuable it really is.  Have you tried buying dollars or EU for Rubble?  IMO the official exchange rates are vastly overstated.  What's the street value? 


Offline Boethius

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2257 on: June 23, 2022, 11:45:19 PM »
Even at converted prices, Russia has always exported less than $8 billion in wheat. Its not a winning formula for a prosperous economy.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Online Trenchcoat

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2258 on: June 24, 2022, 12:26:53 PM »
Looks like there may be a chance of the Russian Federation de-federating as I said early on in all of this:

http://inews.co.uk/news/world/putin-using-ukraine-war-russia-independence-moscow-1698699

So Pootin could end up losing more territory than he seeks to gain in Ukraine. Once he's run down the state of the army and it seems to be getting towards that now opportunity will likely exist for a break up. If the 22 Republics all break off at about the same time Pootin won't know what to do with it all. It would be good news for us, more FSU countries to visit and possibly some of them with a visa free regime :D
It's a Free Britain we have. We're never going back! :)

Offline rwd123

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2259 on: June 24, 2022, 04:59:09 PM »
As for armaments, your link from an article posted in 2019 is outdated, likely much different nowadays due to 'domestic consumption.  I highly doubt any arms are being exported.

Sure, oil sells as well, but RU is having to give hefty discounts.  RU will still make some money on it though.
Turkey is continuing making payments for S-400 systems: http://news.yahoo.com/erdogan-says-turkey-continues-400-payments-criticises-u-204336302--finance.html

That's one example, DYOR. Arms sales is big business: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/infographic-which-countries-buy-the-most-russian-weapons

Oil sales are at a discount compared to other countries but DOUBLE what has been budgeted by the Russian Federation. We're entering a commodity super cycle which all commodity producers will benefit from.

Offline rwd123

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2260 on: June 24, 2022, 05:04:32 PM »
Even at converted prices, Russia has always exported less than $8 billion in wheat. Its not a winning formula for a prosperous economy.
It buys a LOT of political leverage. What's the value in being able to threaten starvation on  a country, or offer to avoid such calamity (and political fallout)?

I don't think Russia's too concerned about diverting wheat to other markets, especially when its wheat fields are currently expanding...

Online Jumper1

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2261 on: June 24, 2022, 05:20:36 PM »
Are they expanding?
Will they have equipment and storage facilities?
I do believe they can ramp up,but how quickly seems much more of any issue.
 
The west likely has the ability to do so at a faster pace?.

Online Jumper1

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2262 on: June 24, 2022, 05:22:00 PM »
This may very well be edited footage,
But if not, the new  Russian S-180 system seems very effective.

http://youtube.com/shorts/eePHwo7wbtQ?feature=share
 

Offline Boethius

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2263 on: June 24, 2022, 06:41:46 PM »
It buys a LOT of political leverage. What's the value in being able to threaten starvation on  a country, or offer to avoid such calamity (and political fallout)?

I don't think Russia's too concerned about diverting wheat to other markets, especially when its wheat fields are currently expanding...

Russias wheat fields are not expanding. Kherson is being retaken. The wheat growing regions of Zaporizhia are under Ukrainian control, as are the wheat growing regions od Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, although they grow relatively little wheat.

That leverage is unstable. The US and Canada could easily replace Russia as a source of wheat.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2022, 08:10:41 PM by Boethius »
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline krimster2

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2264 on: June 24, 2022, 07:43:53 PM »
Russia is a freakin mafiya kleptocratic state

read about Paul Klebnikov here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Klebnikov


he was the first editor of Russian Forbes Magazine
wrote an article about Russias Fortune 100 People
which showed that 25% of Russias wealth was owned by about 100 people
who were all inter-connected
he found that 75% of these people gained their fortune, by privitizing big government owned enterprises, like oil and gas, etc

they shot and killed him
OK?
this is the Russia I KNOW..
don't know where you dingo groomers get your infor from Russia from, your aborigines maybe?

right me cobber?
put another little shriveled up shrimp on the barbie
and chug yiur warm Foster's
you thinking you're part of the intelligentsia is just "priceless" humour
as well as your complete lack of self-awarenes
the  PICE DE RSISTANCE of your sad little existence is NO POOTY TANG for you AT ALL!!!!
only sex you have is with your RIGHT HAND!!!
unless...
YOU'RE LEFT HANDED!!!!

Quick, someone call the ER "Burn Ward" looks like they got a REAL serious case!!


« Last Edit: June 24, 2022, 07:58:27 PM by krimster2 »

Offline Boethius

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2265 on: June 24, 2022, 08:23:27 PM »
Good point, krim. Ten families own the majority of Russian farmland and agricultural entities. Foreigners own 5%, and small farmers or the state own 7%.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline krimster2

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2266 on: June 24, 2022, 08:31:16 PM »
Russia was ALWAYS a feudal state, in one way or another...
smart Russians - LEFT!

Offline rwd123

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2267 on: June 24, 2022, 09:22:25 PM »
Are they expanding?
Where have you been the last four months?

http://liveuamap.com

Russia's not stopping in Donbas.

Boe, Russia has lots of problems, I realize that, but it's not as bad you'd wish. I'd rather live in reality. Russia is not a utopia, however it's not about to collapse like your Azov boys in Mariupol.

A good week however. Roe v. Wade thrown out, expanded gun rights. The sun still rises in the morning. MAGA 2.0 here we come! Trump was right, everything woke turns to shit. Currently sums up the White House, the EU and NATO!

Offline Boethius

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2268 on: June 24, 2022, 10:45:19 PM »
The Azov Batallion are not my boys.  I am Canadian.

Russia is a third world s***hole, ruled by a kleptocratic plutocracy. It gives me no pleasure to state this obvious fact.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline rwd123

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2269 on: June 24, 2022, 11:10:46 PM »
The Azov Batallion are not my boys.  I am Canadian.

Russia is a third world s***hole, ruled by a kleptocratic plutocracy. It gives me no pleasure to state this obvious fact.
Shithole or not, reality eventually catches up with everyone.



Kleptocracy or thievocracy, the song always has a similar tune.

http://medium.com/yardcouch-com/blackrock-the-secret-company-that-owns-the-world-b96111277e0f
http://www.farmlandriches.com/largest-farmland-owners/



Offline Boethius

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2270 on: June 25, 2022, 12:56:58 AM »
Ah, always up for a conspiracy theory.

You forgot to add (to round out the conspiracy), that Blackrock was founded, and is run by, the Joooos.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2022, 02:19:09 AM by Boethius »
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Online Trenchcoat

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2271 on: June 25, 2022, 03:29:14 AM »

A good week however. Roe v. Wade thrown out

Got to say it's good to see Roe v. Wade finally gone in the US, never thought that would happen as it was kind of had become like a cornerstone of the justice system over there I got the impression. I'm not religious at all but I think it was very much a feminist crusade that one so good to see it go all women should have to undergo the joys of pregnancy I think :D Well maybe not the ugly overweight ones lol.
It's a Free Britain we have. We're never going back! :)

Online Trenchcoat

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2272 on: June 25, 2022, 03:45:23 AM »
Well last info I have heard is the Ukrainian army seems to have halted their advance towards Kherson. My guess is that the realisation is that to take the city back they would have to pummel it with artillery to displace the Orcs just like the Orcs did in Mariupol. That of course would be particularly unpleasant to do to their own people and of course you can bet your life the Orcs are keeping enough of the Ukrainians their from leaving to use as their human shield. In Donbass Sievierodonetsk has almost fallen with remaining Ukrainian troops being ordered to retreat so it appears. Probably nothing left if the city to hide within it looks. The howitzers and mobile launchers the west have promised seem to be getting through to Ukraine in general now but looks like probably just not quite made it in time for that city.

Other than that Ukraine & Moldova got candidate status to join the EU though many don't think it will come about fir many, many years, if ever as Ukraine's economy will be too shattered plus remaining concerns over corruption. I personally don't think any country should be allowed to join without it being put to their people first in a referendum otherwise they are being tied up to the EU without their consent with a wish to join being assumed instead of known for certain, that's not democratic in my view. I just don't think Ukraine realises what it's getting itself into in joining the EU. I think they would get quite a surprise if it ever happened, that it wouldn't be as wonderful as some Ukrainians think it would be. In any case at the moment the EU's finances are in the sh*t. Worse still the southern EU member state economies from Greece to Italy are back as concerns over the debt they are taking on and whether they can hold up long term. Looks like in Italy the anti-EU, right wing parties are gaining in popularity quickly, the League, etc and the Five Star are getting pretty unpopular if recent polling holds true, Parliamentary Elections due next year in 2023 apparently, could be interesting.

At the moment it looks like in Ukraine the next move will be with Ukraine to see whether they make a move to counterattack and retake the lost territory or hold firm and wait for Russia to exhaust itself and possible events in Russia to take their course.
It's a Free Britain we have. We're never going back! :)

Offline krimster2

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2273 on: June 25, 2022, 09:24:17 AM »
Trench,

my wife delivered two baby girls in California!
California has the most liberal abortion laws
heres how THIS ACTUALLY AFFECTED ME!

During a pre-natal screening we opted to do a screen of the embryo for Spina Bifida
if a baby is born with this condition
it will never lift its head, feed itself, or say mama, ok?

My wife and I decided to take the test, and if it cam back positive, wed abort the pregnancy and try again

WE DECIDED TRENCH!!!
not some members of a church being influenced by politicians eager for their vote
not the government

WE DECIDED!!!
see the difference?

why are conservatives ALWAYS against reproductive and sexual freedom?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Sanger

you can't be forced to put on a mask during a severe pandemic
but you can be forced to have your rapist's baby

freedumb

Trench, I have a feeling that you ain't gonna have to worry about abortions, EVER!
OK?
just get yourself a pet of some kind


« Last Edit: June 25, 2022, 09:41:17 AM by krimster2 »

Offline ML

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Re: The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #2274 on: June 25, 2022, 09:54:57 AM »

why are conservatives ALWAYS against reproductive and sexual freedom?


I am not.

There should be more abortions.
A beautiful woman is pleasant to look at, but it is easier to live with a pleasant acting one.

 

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