What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[fathertime]

Jone has  been rather disrespectful as far as I'm concerned regarding other 'uninformed' opinions. NOW this quiet UTURN comes about 

5.  Invasion

I believe that right now the invasion card is off the table. 
 

as it turns out Jone has come around to the same opinion  I've held from early on, which he has derided...here is what he had to say earlier before the UTURN.

FT,   But he got his crank stepped on and decided to be a gunslinger.  Now like a kid telling a lie in class, he has no choice but to bluff his way out.  And the world is watching.  And no one believes him.  So the only thing he can do is be naughtier.  Mark my words. He will invade Eastern Ukraine.  He has no choice.For those who are worried about Crimea?  Why worry.  It is the boobie prize.  No one is going to be happy owning it now.  It will be a place of strife and will be sealed off from the rest of Ukraine.  It is the South Ossetia of the Black Sea.  Lucky they have some good harbors there, because that is the only way that Russia is going to be able to resupply it.And when Russia invades Ukraine, those Ukrainian tanks are going to respond.  And the world will watch with horror for the first two weeks, this plucky little country responding to aggression.  And then they will back her with arms and soldiers.  And Russia will now have stepped on their own crank and Putin will have less than two years left in power before the people, again, rise up in revolt.   

To FT, you talk of a win/win situation.  If Putin walks away with only Crimea, he is removed from office in less than two years.  He has set himself on a course that can only be sustained with the invasion of Eastern Ukraine. 


 

FP, I still believe Putin is going to invade.  I, along with the majority of Ukrainians.   

  Belvis,  Russia is not there to have military exercises, they are their to intimidate and probably invade.  Frankly, it makes me want to call my Congressman and have the US do a little intimidation of our own. Maybe put two or three divisions in Latvia.  Do military exercises there with drones and field hospitals and armored columns.  Big enough to reach Moscow.  Accompanied by the stealth weapons that your country has no idea how to defend against.  (Gonna land another drone in Crimea?  Hahahahahaha!) It is time for you to grow up Belvis and show a little compassion with your words - maybe even apologize for your leaders.

Well Jone, you have been rather dismissive of Belvis too...even suggesting he apologize (where is that evidence that I demanded an apology from a Russian woman?)...YOU have been insisting that the RUssians are going to invade Ukraine...well A couple of us spoke out RESPECTFULLY (against the majority here) and didn't believe that was likely all along, and you decided to engage by acting like a dismissive know-it-all.....   

You also advocated the US getting involved earlier on, although  now you are advocating little to no involvement NOW...JUST AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING RIGHT ALONG.

Perhaps going forward you should be a little more respectful of us dum-dums, who have our own set of insights, which as you are learning are quite valid.... 

Fathertime! 

[BillyB]

So why should the US not get involved?  Quite honestly, this is Europe's play. 

A lot of people believe America was involved in regime change in response to Russia controlling the regime in Ukraine for many years. If Obama did support and encourage people to risk their lives for America's agenda, Obama should back those people up a lot more than just sending 300,000 MREs(Meals Ready to Eat).


Obama's actions will hurt America everywhere else in the world now and for a long time coming. If there's any chance a large group of citizens who want to rebel against Iran, North Korea or any other place in the world, they are less likely to believe America and accept support. America's influence will dwindle and with that it's status.


Many people say America should stay out of other nation's business. No country or empire has ever become stronger becoming isolationists. If it were true, full blown sanctions against Russia would make them stronger. Big nations like Russia and America understand if they need to be involved in other nations business. Some nations want to take away other people's freedom and few want to preserve it.


Europe isn't capable of getting anything done in their own back yard when it comes to conflicts. That's why things can spiral out of control. They couldn't get things done in Yugoslavia and Libya without America's help.


As soon as Ukraine had it's revolution and Russia cried it's citizens are in danger, Obama should have sent America troops there to help Russia protect it's citizens as a gesture of good will for our pal Putin just as we sent Putin American warships to help with security of the Olympics. With the absence of hostilities, Russian covert operations to encourage unrest, and discrimination against Russian citizens, together we could help Ukraine have a fair election.


Lots of BS goes on in this world. During debates on whether or not Iraq had WMD's I stated Bush went into Iraq for another reason he knew that couldn't be accepted for war. Europe, Russia, and a few American companies continued to do business with Iraq which violated the UN resolutions everybody signed on to. Iraq was not the only guilty party. It wouldn't be nice of Bush to publicly announce the level of corruption engage in by our friends so he put an end to it with another Iraq war. There are a lot more nations with questionable activities than America's so those of you who want to see America in decline, think about who's best to replace us so we can head in that direction.


I once communicated with a RW who didn't like America's policies. I asked her who she thought was the best example of a country. She named Switzerland because they're neutral and don't start fights. I told her that Switzerland kept/stole many of the holocaust victims money after WW2 and if there were more countries like them in the world, guys like Hitler will be ruling the world. Good people and nations have to be willing to fight against aggression.

[jone]

Jone has  been rather disrespectful as far as I'm concerned regarding other 'uninformed' opinions. NOW this quiet UTURN comes about   


as it turns out Jone has come around to the same opinion  I've held from early on, which he has derided...here is what he had to say earlier before the UTURN.



Well Jone, you have been rather dismissive of Belvis too...even suggesting he apologize (where is that evidence that I demanded an apology from a Russian woman?)...YOU have been insisting that the RUssians are going to invade Ukraine...well A couple of us spoke out RESPECTFULLY (against the majority here) and didn't believe that was likely all along, and you decided to engage by acting like a dismissive know-it-all.....   

You also advocated the US getting involved earlier on, although  now you are advocating little to no involvement NOW...JUST AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING RIGHT ALONG.

Perhaps going forward you should be a little more respectful of us dum-dums, who have our own set of insights, which as you are learning are quite valid.... 

Fathertime! 

Congratulations for quoting me out of context.  If you read what I said, I said that Ukraine's leadership is showing enough competence that Putin has no choice but to invade.  As always, you read what you want to.  I have not changed my opinion since the onset.  I have just given more clarity as the Russian positions have come into focus. 

Your win/win claims are just about the most idiotic postings on this forum.  And for people with family or friends in Ukraine, watching their country decimated and you claiming its a win for them is abhorrent and uninformed.

So tell us again what a WIN this is for Ukraine!

[fathertime]

   I have not changed my opinion since the onset. 

Haha, you are like a propaganda machine for yourself.   Let’s examine your lie that I’ve quoted you out of context:   
Here is 2 of your ENTIRE quotes:  You clearly state that Putin is invading:   

FT,I have one objection to your line of thought, although we are very close.  The whole idea for the end of the Cold War was that we could get more out of cooperation than we could out of opposing each other.  Every country has their interests.  They should be expected to protect their interests.But the greater good of the world is served when people rise above the regional interests and join the global economy.  Most of Europe had thought that Russia had done so.  I thought that Russia had done so.  I have traveled through Russia and seen that the middle class is indeed arriving.Now, in one month, in what I firmly believe was an unplanned operation, Putin has taken Russia out of the global economy and set the world back two decades.And the shitte thing about the whole situation is that he had it within his grasp to have his cake and eat it too.  He controls Ukraine through the pipeline, through the shared border and through the economic advantage that he has.  In a period of three or four years, it would have been as before, only better.But he got his crank stepped on and decided to be a gunslinger.  Now like a kid telling a lie in class, he has no choice but to bluff his way out.  And the world is watching.  And no one believes him.  So the only thing he can do is be naughtier.  Mark my words.  He will invade Eastern Ukraine.  He has no choice.For those who are worried about Crimea?  Why worry.  It is the boobie prize.  No one is going to be happy owning it now.  It will be a place of strife and will be sealed off from the rest of Ukraine.  It is the South Ossetia of the Black Sea.  Lucky they have some good harbors there, because that is the only way that Russia is going to be able to resupply it.And when Russia invades Ukraine, those Ukrainian tanks are going to respond.  And the world will watch with horror for the first two weeks, this plucky little country responding to aggression.  And then they will back her with arms and soldiers.  And Russia will now have stepped on their own crank and Putin will have less than two years left in power before the people, again, rise up in revolt.  That is why the United States should keep their nose out of the affair.  Putin is doing plenty well sealing his own fate without us.

There are no IF AND's or BUT'S in your earlier statement.  You are being quoted in context as it I've included your entire quote.  You have changed your position and have no moved over to the position you derided earlier. 

FP, I still believe Putin is going to invade.  I, along with the majority of Ukrainians.  If not he has polarized a neighbor and made them so pro-west that they will turn totally away from Russia.  And all for a Crimean economy that he will have to support.  A pariah supporting a pariah.  It doesn't make any sense.  It will be five years before they get that bridge built from Russia to Crimea.  By that time, Crimea will be in open revolt again because of how bad their lives have become.  Lucky they have the Russian troops on station.

 
NOW you are claiming that 300 Russian sympathizers are reigning hell on Ukraine from the inside out and calling that an invasion.  I believe you have been downplaying the strength of the resistance against the new quite possibly illegal regime.  The Russian tanks aren't rolling, troops are staying where they are, so if that doesn't happen going forward are you still going to call this an invasion?
 
It looks to me like there is a lot more support within Ukraine then what you are claiming, the resistance has just taken over a lot of police stations today and appears to be gathering strength.  This doesn't look like a Russian invasion, but the beginnings of a genuine civil war. which if it occurs will almost certainly negate my win-win.  I believe that the two sides had better get to the bargaining table REAL soon....if they do, everybody will win and loss of life can be minimized. 
[size=78%]http://news.yahoo.com/uniformed-men-occupy-donetsk-police-hq-143227064.html[/size]


Fathertime!   

[jone]

"I STILL BELIEVE THIS IS A WIN/WIN for RUSSIA AND UKRAINE!"  Hedging your bets are you?  Now you say if there is civil war that it might (just possibly) not be a win for Ukraine.   


Every one of my five points is legitimate.    The script is being read according to Russia's plan. 

You are absolutely naive if you think anything short of capitulation is going to appease the Kremlin!

Haven't you figured out yet that these building seizure operations are a staged operation?

Then as soon as the move is made, Russia makes a grandstand statement with the Army it has set up just across the border stating that if Ukraine makes any move to dislodge the occupiers that Russia will invade.

There is absolutely no desire by Russia to negotiate.  Unless it gets everything it wants:  Ukraine as a subservient client state. 

Mark my words.  Putin will invade.  He has no choice.  I would like very much to be wrong.  But on these things, I'm usually not.

So, let's look at the score: 

1.  Kharkiv - Occupation operation thwarted.  Seizure of buildings thwarted.  Occupiers disbursed.

2.  Mykolaiv - Occupation operation thwarted.  Seizure of buildings thwarted.  Occupiers in hospital, having had the shite beat out of them.

3.  Donetsk - Occupation held by two hundred occupiers of a government building.  Normal operation of government resumed.

4.  Lughansk - Occupation by approximately 100 people of security offices.  56 people released.  Only occupiers remain. 

5.  Small town police station overpowered - Occupation of approximately 60 people.  Situation still undetermined.

So, in all of Eastern Ukraine, only about 500 people are in a state of rebellion.  The populace is not flocking to support the occupiers because there are no Russian troops in place to force the issue.  There is no popular uprising in Eastern Ukraine, only staged operations to try to destabilize.

This is a full-on Russian operation.  But the results desired are no where near enough to overthrow the regional government.  Russia has no choice but to try to take things to the next level.

I stand by my statements that Putin will invade.

[fathertime]

"I STILL BELIEVE THIS IS A WIN/WIN for RUSSIA AND UKRAINE!"  Hedging your bets are you?  Now you say if there is civil war that it might (just possibly) not be a win for Ukraine.   


 

It is not hedging my bet if I say I'm wrong...IF there is a bloody extended civil war it would not be a win for Ukraine.  That hasn't happened though, and if it doesn't my point may still come to pass.  At this point I still believe there will be a negotiation where both sides will have some positives and walk away satisfied enough. 

Every one of my five points is legitimate.    The script is being read according to Russia's plan. 

You are absolutely naive if you think anything short of capitulation is going to appease the Kremlin!

Haven't you figured out yet that these building seizure operations are a staged operation?

Then as soon as the move is made, Russia makes a grandstand statement with the Army it has set up just across the border stating that if Ukraine makes any move to dislodge the occupiers that Russia will invade.

There is absolutely no desire by Russia to negotiate.  Unless it gets everything it wants:  Ukraine as a subservient client state. 
 

I stand by my statements that Putin will invade.

We shall see about that.  From what I've seen, it appears to me that this is more than just a few hundred people staging a rebellion for show.  I still hold the position that Russia would have taken the parts of Ukraine that it wanted right away if that is what they intended on doing.  Nobody or nothing would have stopped them. 


If Ukraine winds up being a federation where certain Eastern Parts are more sympathetic towards Russia, I'd consider that a reasonable enough solution, and I'd say many others would too.  It certainly appears by the prior election that much of E. Ukraine does not share the same loyalties as much of W. Ukraine. I think you are glossing over these differences to fit your narrative, which to this point as not come to pass.  If those tanks don't roll into Ukraine at some point, what you have said will be incorrect and you will have been the naive one. 


Fathertime!   

[jone]

I have lived there.  You haven't.

[missAmeno]

FT, your desire to be right is crossed line from being annoying to making feel sick.
Understand simple fact: invasion already started while ago. Russians occupying part of Ukraine already. Russian military intelligence and diversion units operating on territory of Ukraine.

And no there is no WIN/WIN for Ukraine ans Ukrainians. Please control your urges to wipe other members noses with your rightfulness (most of the time it is BS by the way). Already died a lot of people and no one knows how many more will. For many what is happening in Ukraine is tragedy, your desire to scream on every page how right you are is reprehensible.

[BillyB]

This is a full-on Russian operation.  But the results desired are no where near enough to overthrow the regional government.  Russia has no choice but to try to take things to the next level.

Putin is now trying to have talks with Europe and telling America to stay out. Europe is much more likely to let Russia have their way with Ukraine than America. If Germany and France tells America to back off because Russia's gas and trade is too important to them, Ukraine will be handed over to Russia without Russian troops needing to invade. But a Russian backed civil war may still be needed to rid of the pro West politicians and the citizens who support them. Civil war may be bloodier than a Russian invasion.


http://news.yahoo.com/putin-pledges-fulfil-europe-gas-obligations-144135859.html

[fathertime]

I have lived there.  You haven't.

Which has led to you having obvious biases which have distorted your views.....

FT, your desire to be right is crossed line from being annoying to making feel sick.
Understand simple fact: invasion already started while ago. Russians occupying part of Ukraine already. Russian military intelligence and diversion units operating on territory of Ukraine.

And no there is no WIN/WIN for Ukraine ans Ukrainians. Please control your urges to wipe other members noses with your rightfulness (most of the time it is BS by the way). Already died a lot of people and no one knows how many more will. For many what is happening in Ukraine is tragedy, your desire to scream on every page how right you are is reprehensible.

Ultimately if I'm right or wrong wont' matter.  I'm not concerned what you find reprehensible.  There is more than one view on the subject and I've decided to present a view I've formed, despite the pleas for everybody to come to the same conclusions.   
To this point there has been no  invasion (and I don't think there will be)....the USA has avoided getting into this TOO deep...and there is still a potential for the countries to wind up with an outcome they can live with (a win).     those are my central points.  If/when one of them is shown to be wrong I will admit to it and move on...I think ultimately the sides will come together and everybody will save some face.  If you feel that it is reprehensible, then that is too bad.


Fathertime! 

[missAmeno]

   
To this point there has been no  invasion...

Are you sure about that?

[fathertime]

Are you sure about that?

If you feel there has been an invasion, then I'll read what you have to say...from what I've seen there has not been an invasion.


In addition, I'm not sure what the US has done and is doing, but I don't want the USA to be a central figure in this.  If we join in, I feel this will escalate to an unnecessary high pitch.  I don't see Russia backing down. 


Fathertime! 

[BC]

Chatting with my programmers today who lives in eastern Ukraine, he described the 'invasion' was more like a band of hooligans being cheered along.  Even the police, who mostly 'think towards RU' are just turning a blind eye.  Seems RU has the 'silent majority'.

Definitely not an invasion, but instead a sort of contagion.

[alex330]

Chatting with my programmers today who lives in eastern Ukraine, he described the 'invasion' was more like a band of hooligans being cheered along.  Even the police, who mostly 'think towards RU' are just turning a blind eye. 

Not sure about that from the latest footage out of Ukraine. These are trained military forces trading gunfire with local officers.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27005783

[GQBlues]

GQ, that depends on who you ask. 
 
I have this friend who in now part of the new government who would point blak tell you she'd be happy to have the Americans in Ukrainian soil. She just left for the border with an inspection team and should be back tomorrow.
 
HOWEVER, I kept telling her this was an Ukrainian issue and that Ukraine should not expect any direct US military aid. I gave her my reasons, same as what I've said here all along. So far, what I told her about US intervention has happened. Nichivo.
 
Between you and me, Ukrainians miscalculated Putin's miscalculations. I would say the majority of Ukrainians were positive that once they got rid of Yanukonvict, they would be dealing with Russia in a more equitable manner.
 
Not so.....

I agree.

It could very well be that the short-sighted Ukrainian *leadership* were not exactly the driving force (cause) in this crisis, but rather induced by the background players who has a vested interest in the (in)stability of Ukraine.

It's a quagmire considering these are the same players seated in the SC council which renders, yet again, the UN impotent in this crisis.

As Gator cited:

It's not; it's Europe's concern. 

Europe understands Ukraine and Russia better than we do, and approaches this conflict more as a neighbor than a global adversary. 

If the Ukrainian-Russian conflict reaches critical mass, Europe has the most to lose in the form of possible interruptions of energy from a key supplier.  ....

This crisis is really all about Europe. Just as it was in the so-called Arab Spring. IMO, any other alternative energy source are realistically at least half-a-decade away, a period Europe cannot afford to do without reliance on Russia's export.

http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1283-can-europe-survive-without-russian-gas/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/03/25/can-u-s-natural-gas-rescue-ukraine-from-russia/

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21600111-reducing-europes-dependence-russian-gas-possiblebut-it-will-take-time-money-and-sustained

Unfortunately for Ukraine, the cause-and-effect of the current political instability, and the ensuing violence and struggle in its aftermath, and likely the *real* culprit in this entire crisis; is solely Europe's complete dependence for Russian gas. Every facet of it. In the short term, Russia understands it is holding all the trump cards. It's got Europe by its balls and how much of Ukraine it can take depends on how much Europe is willing to allow them to do so. Europe would likely much rather see Ukraine reduced to ashes than lose its supply right now.

For this crisis to end today is for Europe to cut-off all gas import from Russia. Sadly for Ukraine, that ain't gonna happen anytime soon. So for now, they bear the sacrificial pawns on the board.

This entire chapter dealing with Ukraine should've been planned and handled by EU/USA far better than they did.

[Muzh]

I agree.

It could very well be that the short-sighted Ukrainian *leadership* were not exactly the driving force (cause) in this crisis, but rather induced by the background players who has a vested interest in the (in)stability of Ukraine.

It's a quagmire considering these are the same players seated in the SC council which renders, yet again, the UN impotent in this crisis.
 

You see, this is where I disagree with you.
 
From the very beginning this was a spontaneous demonstration. I've been hearing the mumblings way before Yanukonvict's uturn that broke the camel's back.
 
I know the Pro-Russians here will claim this was a CIA-sponsored NGO activity but they fail to understand that if the CIA were involved in this from the very beginning, there would not be the cluster fcuk that you find right now.
 
Which leads me to believe this was an FSB operation from the very beginning.
 
And before vocalizing, think very hard about it. Who was to benefit the most from this cluster-fcuk?

As Gator cited:

This crisis is really all about Europe. Just as it was in the so-called Arab Spring. IMO, any other alternative energy source are realistically at least half-a-decade away, a period Europe cannot afford to do without reliance on Russia's export.
 
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1283-can-europe-survive-without-russian-gas/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/03/25/can-u-s-natural-gas-rescue-ukraine-from-russia/

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21600111-reducing-europes-dependence-russian-gas-possiblebut-it-will-take-time-money-and-sustained

Unfortunately for Ukraine, the cause-and-effect of the current political instability, and the ensuing violence and struggle in its aftermath, and likely the *real* culprit in this entire crisis; is solely Europe's complete dependence for Russian gas. Every facet of it. In the short term, Russia understands it is holding all the trump cards. It's got Europe by its balls and how much of Ukraine it can take depends on how much Europe is willing to allow them to do so. Europe would likely much rather see Ukraine reduced to ashes than lose its supply right now.

For this crisis to end today is for Europe to cut-off all gas import from Russia. Sadly for Ukraine, that ain't gonna happen anytime soon. So for now, they bear the sacrificial pawns on the board.

This entire chapter dealing with Ukraine should've been planned and handled by EU/USA far better than they did.

Oh, I see you answered the question. 

[Gator]

What is with the clips of Ukrainian armor with Russian flags?  The news is full of recent, unverified accounts.  The Ukrainian military is not looking competent and organized.   

This seems more like the beginning of a civil war urged on and supported by Russian covert initiatives.   I understand the Kiev government is proceeding cautiously, trying not to create bloodshed that could preempt the elections scheduled for next month.   Yet this seems too cautious or just plain disorganized.

As I wrote elsewhere, only 40% of the Americans were patriotic in the 18th Century about fighting the British to gain our independence and the immense promise of prosperity.  In Ukraine's case, they have had their independence for 20 years and prosperity is not the word for describing the outcome.  I can understand the feeling of many with a short-term outlook to reunite with Russia, even though over the long term I consider it ill-advised. 


It seems that Russia has to do very little to win this one.  If these recent developments are any indication, a mass invasion will not be necessary.  A covert one will suffice.  Assuming resistance is a lost cause, where will the line be drawn on the map on what will become Russia and what remains Ukraine?

[Muzh]

[justme100]

What is with the clips of Ukrainian armor with Russian flags?  The news is full of recent, unverified accounts.  The Ukrainian military is not looking competent and organized.   

poor guys from Ukrainian army didn't eat for several days so they were fed by locals and afterwards switched sides and gave the armors to the Donetsk Republic)

[GQBlues]

This would be a logical event that should be expected to happen almost every time a legitimate, duly elected government is violently taken over - crisis of a civil war.

Events are taking place according to the sociopolitical players' scheme that are maneuvering & fighting for dominion over Ukraine like they did in the Balkans.

http://time.com/63603/ukraine-crisis-eu-indecisive/

"....This may seem like a rather restrained response to the specter of a military Russian assault on Ukraine – German Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said at an event in Berlin on Monday that Russia “was clearly prepared to allow tanks to roll across European borders” – but the E.U.’s 28 member nations are struggling to get past their widely differing political and economic concerns. Hitting the E.U.’s €400bn annual trade with Russia would require serious economic sacrifices at home, and the bloc has so far been hoping that its cocktail of threats, mild sanctions and a few diplomatic snubs would be enough to contain Russia’s possible territorial ambitions....

Ever since the E.U. provoked Moscow’s ire with plans to sign a trade pact with Ukraine in November, Russia has always seemed one step ahead. Putin persuaded then-President Viktor Yanukovich to jettison the deal; when Yanukovich was ousted by protests a few months later, Russia took advantage of the chaos and seized Crimea. Now Russia is accused of orchestrating the unrest in eastern Ukraine – claims Russian officials strongly deny...."

Ain't life grand (albeit for some, not all)?

btw Those tanks look like remnants from WW II, definitely museum pieces.

[BillyB]

In Ukraine's case, they have had their independence for 20 years and prosperity is not the word for describing the outcome.

If Russia didn't inject puppet presidents/criminals to run the country, Ukraine may be doing much better than Poland and the Baltic nations.


Many of the ex Soviet bloc nations successfully moved away from Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union and joined NATO. Those nations and most Ukrainians consider time under Russia as some of the darkest and deadliest chapters in their history. People shouldn't blame America for what's going on. There's a reason many people and nations over there want to get away from Russia.

I can understand the feeling of many with a short-term outlook to reunite with Russia, even though over the long term I consider it ill-advised. 

Ukraine was never fully separated with Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. Some Ukrainians think Russia is the solution and never part of the problems they've been experiencing. They have no idea that President Yanukovych ran the country according to the way Moscow wants. If Ukraine falls under Russia again, they will always be beneath Russia. If Ukrainians think their standard of living will match or be better than the Russians while under Russian rule, they are fooling themselves.

It seems that Russia has to do very little to win this one.  If these recent developments are any indication, a mass invasion will not be necessary.  A covert one will suffice. 

I agree. It's seems Russia will soon be annexing east Ukraine. What's next? Look at the map. The border of east Ukraine is very close to Kiev.

[missAmeno]

It seems that Russia has to do very little to win this one.  If these recent developments are any indication, a mass invasion will not be necessary.  A covert onie will suffice.  Assuming resistance is a lost cause, where will the line be drawn on the map on what will become Russia and what remains Ukraine?

I do not know, guys, what kind of news you are reading to have such conclusions.
First thing, Russia has been and still doing a lot to win this. Russian military personal is operating on territory of Ukraine. They rolling out exactly same scenario as was in Crimea, the only difference is in Crimea they had heavy machinery/equipment on territory and that what they didn't had on territory was possible to bring in through Russian military bases located in Crimea. In order to roll in heavy machinery/equipment on mainland of Ukraine they need bloodshed of civil population (aka excuse to intervene) and that is one of the tasks of russian military units on territory of Ukraine. There is enough evidence of Russian troops involvement, plans, orders and from what level orders coming through. Also including evidence that these plans and actions to accomplish these plans going back to last year. Basically mass invasion is too late to prevent.
So far for sure known that Russia is after Kharkiv, Luhanks, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykovayiv, Odessa as well as Transnistria.

[BillyB]

They rolling out exactly same scenario as was in Crimea,

Yes, but this time Ukraine is fighting back and Ukraine is not looking good.

I do not know, guys, what kind of news you are reading to have such conclusions.
 

Well trained Ukrainian commandos should easily beat rag tag groups of militia men. Maybe the commandos are actually fighting against well trained Russian soldiers?


Why does the militia need to wear face masks? Who's supplying these brand new masks? Maybe they don't want family and friends back home in Russia to recognize them?

Russia has been and still doing a lot to win this. Russian military personal is operating on territory of Ukraine.

MOST people can agree on that. East Ukraine was relatively calm until a week ago when Russia backed and supplied pro Russian Ukrainians.  Unfortunately Russia is promoting a civil war. Russia will supply pro Russian Ukrainians with arms and so far no Western nation has committed to supplying West Ukrainians with arms as they believe they will provoke Russia into doing something bad. I think many west Ukrainians have to die in a civil war before America or Europe will send them weapons. If America or Europe doesn't send west Ukrainians weapons at all, that means they value Russia's business more than your freedom.

[missAmeno]

New twist ...

Kolomoysky set reward for the capture of Russian saboteurs 10 000 $ for each 1 000 $ per automat

Deputy governor of the Dnepropetrovsk region Boris Filatov proposed new methods of fighting terrorists .

This he wrote in his Facebook transmits Tsenzor.NET .

He noted: First division special battalion "Dnepr" formed and ready to perform combat missions. Roadblocks are set.

Filatov continued: " I ​​thought a lot about the events in Donetsk and Lugansk. Conclusion - this is a revolution of poverty. A revolt of tired, desperate and unheard by those who in power people. Yanukovich's call, plunged our fellow citizens into the depths of despair and today provokes them into separatism, distributing money stolen from people and promising future as part of a hostile neighboring state.

He appealed to the people of Donbass : " Our Russian-speaking brothers from Donbass. Confused. With lost guidelines. Those who have bought into the sweet promises of scoundrels. We have an offer. For each returned gun - paid remuneration for automat $ 1,000; machine gun - $ 1500; a grenade launcher - $ 2,000 .

For each "green man", he is a mercenary that walked into our common ground and trying to push us in the fratricidal war - a fee of $ 10,000. For each freed building handed over to local authorities and under the protection of spetsroty "Donbass" battalion "Dnepr" - a reward of $ 200,000 (and in the territorial community remains free right of access at any time)

http://censor.net.ua/news/281450/kolomoyiskiyi_ustanovil_nagradu_za_poimku_rossiyiskih_diversantov_10_000_ue_za_kajdogo_i_1_000_ue_za

[GQBlues]

Unfortunately, a whole new can of worms, MissA.

Bounty mercenary trade. The prospect for the average Ukrainian gets uglier by the day. This is indicative of a leaderless chaotic state.