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Author Topic: More Bad News for Russia  (Read 1076120 times)

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Offline AkMike

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More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #325 on: November 02, 2014, 11:05:52 AM »
Russian banks in Ukraine may lose $ 25 billion

Losses from direct and indirect risks of the Russian banks in Ukraine may amount to $ 25 bn, The Komersant says Oct. 29, quoting its banking market sources.

The estimate figured at last Monday's closed session Premier Medvedev held with the representatives of major Russian banks.

According to one source, the total loss may amount to $ 25 bn.

However, another source assumed that a more realistic figure is $ 12.5 bn.

The losses include credits to Russian companies operating in Ukraine and credits to Ukrainian clients, Komersant sources say.
http://zik.ua/en/news/2014/10/29/russian_banks_in_ukraine_may_lose_25_billion_535934

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #326 on: November 02, 2014, 11:56:50 AM »
Banking 01.11.2014 Deutsche Welle
Russian central bank ups main lending rate

The Bank of Russia said Friday it was raising its benchmark lending rate to 9.5 percent, with the measure to take effect on November 5. Following a board meeting in the morning, executives confirmed the rate would go up by 150 basis points, bringing the cumulative increase to 400 basis points this year.

The central bank had been under enormous pressure to raise rates to defend a continuously sliding ruble, which had lost about 20 percent against the US dollar since July, not least as a result of Western sanctions against the country over the Kremlin's involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

The bank said it was concerned about inflation reaching 8.4 percent towards the end of October. It added it didn't expect inflation do drop below 8 percent before the end of the first quarter next year.

Short-lived ruble rally

"If external conditions improve, the bank will be ready to start easing monetary policy again," the lender said in a statement.

It noted that economic growth would be close to zero in the fourth quarter, with no significant changes in sight for the first three months of 2015.

Following the announcement of the lending rate hike, the ruble firmed briefly and trimmed losses from earlier in the trading session before falling back into negative territory.
http://www.dw.de/russian-central-ban...ate/a-18032266

lordtiberius

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« Reply #327 on: November 02, 2014, 01:27:00 PM »
Russian banks in Ukraine may lose $ 25 billion

Losses from direct and indirect risks of the Russian banks in Ukraine may amount to $ 25 bn, The Komersant says Oct. 29, quoting its banking market sources.

The estimate figured at last Monday's closed session Premier Medvedev held with the representatives of major Russian banks.

According to one source, the total loss may amount to $ 25 bn.

However, another source assumed that a more realistic figure is $ 12.5 bn.

The losses include credits to Russian companies operating in Ukraine and credits to Ukrainian clients, Komersant sources say.
http://zik.ua/en/news/2014/10/29/russian_banks_in_ukraine_may_lose_25_billion_535934

Fwiw, there are Sberbank branches in Bila Tserkva.

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #328 on: November 03, 2014, 10:39:58 AM »
Germany may propose tougher sanctions against Russia

03.11.2014 | 17:07
Germany may put forward proposals to toughen sanctions against Russia in the wake of Moscow’s declaration that it would recognize Sunday’s elections in the breakaway districts of the Donbas in Ukraine.

German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said in Berlin on Monday that the possibility of lifting sanctions against Russia for its annexation of the Ukrainian territory of Crimea and fueling the insurgency in the Donbas is now off the table.

He said the elections were a breach of the Minsk agreements on ending the Donbas conflict, and Berlin does not understand an official statement from Moscow regarding its recognition of the "voting," organized by the separatists, German broadcaster Deutsche Welle reported.

"If the situation deteriorates, it may be necessary to step up sanctions on Russia," Seibert said.

Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that Russia respects the choice made by residents of the southeast and is ready to contribute further to the solution of the Ukrainian crisis.
Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics...-against-russia.html

Offline AC

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« Reply #329 on: November 03, 2014, 10:52:04 AM »

He said the elections were a breach of the Minsk agreements on ending the Donbas conflict, and Berlin does not understand an official statement from Moscow regarding its recognition of the "voting," organized by the separatists, German broadcaster Deutsche Welle reported.

"If the situation deteriorates, it may be necessary to step up sanctions on Russia," Seibert said.

Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that Russia respects the choice made by residents of the southeast and is ready to contribute further to the solution of the Ukrainian crisis.
Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics...-against-russia.html

I'm surprised because it's no small amount of trade which Germany does with Russia.

I think it's fairly easy now to decipher what the Russians really mean when they claim to want to "contribute further to the solution".  What they really mean is that they want to continue to move troops and material into the affected area and go ahead with their plan of a larger invasion to get their land bridge to Crimea.

I just read an article last night which stated that Crimea was going to cost the Russian Federation 150 Billion Dollars all together.  Factoring in the cost of the economic sanctions and cost of the continued war I would say that figure is likely to be low.  When all is said and done I believe it will cost Putin his Presidency. 


Offline AkMike

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« Reply #330 on: November 03, 2014, 11:05:30 AM »
I hope that Russia becomes insolvent/bankrupt soon and cannot afford further invasions.

 I read something recently that 'appears' (not 100% sure about it though) that they're dipping into the pensioners fund to sponsor the war effort.

Offline BillyB

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« Reply #331 on: November 03, 2014, 11:54:28 AM »
I hope that Russia becomes insolvent/bankrupt soon and cannot afford further invasions.



War may be Putin's solution to becoming stronger. Russia nearly lost to Germany in WW2 and emerged a super power. USA also became much stronger after the war. If Russia has available resources and a willing population to churn out weapons wholesale, they can become stronger after a war only if they win it. There's no doubt in my mind Putin wants more real estate. Only thing stopping him is the thought of losing a war. So far the world has shown they won't go any further than sanctions in stopping Putin. Obama is president for a couple more years so the window of the best opportunity will close after that. Putin has some time to decide if he wants his name etched in history books.


I feel sorry for Ukraine president Poroshenko. He reminds me of the coach that takes the job on a losing team. Little chance in winning. Putin will remain a thorn in his side for years to come and Ukraine will continually get stepped on by Russia. The citizens of Ukraine may eventually blame Poroshenko for not getting positive results. Reality is anybody in his shoes have an uphill battle they probably can't win. Will Europe and America pump enough money into Ukraine to make Ukrainian citizens believe they're heading in the right direction? Hard to turn a country's economy around with a lot of infighting.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline JayH

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« Reply #332 on: November 03, 2014, 12:21:28 PM »
Fwiw, there are Sberbank branches in Bila Tserkva.

But--no queue's!!  Characteristic of Russian owned banks across Ukraine. Simply not trusted .
Compare that to Privat everywhere -always crowds
SLAVA UKRAYINI  ! HEROYAM SLAVA!!!!
Слава Украине! Слава героям слава!Слава Україні! Слава героям!
 translated as: Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!!!  is a Ukrainian greeting slogan being used now all over Ukraine to signify support for a free independent Ukraine

Offline JayH

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« Reply #333 on: November 03, 2014, 12:34:56 PM »
I'm surprised because it's no small amount of trade which Germany does with Russia.

I think it's fairly easy now to decipher what the Russians really mean when they claim to want to "contribute further to the solution".  What they really mean is that they want to continue to move troops and material into the affected area and go ahead with their plan of a larger invasion to get their land bridge to Crimea.

I just read an article last night which stated that Crimea was going to cost the Russian Federation 150 Billion Dollars all together.  Factoring in the cost of the economic sanctions and cost of the continued war I would say that figure is likely to be low.  When all is said and done I believe it will cost Putin his Presidency.

The sanctions and the pressure of sanctions are only in early days.
Some of the nations seriously entwined with Russian money( notably Germany and UK)  were reluctant to go overboard overnight-- but the big picture is clearer now and they have been forced into line-- so look for sanctions being continually ramped up.
Putin's blustering and provocations are designed as a distraction-aimed at stopping the west doing to much to help Ukraine while Russia tidies up it's invasion-then later to claim they were only recognising the will of the people.His hope is that Russia can outlast the west.
Putin is stupid enough-- and deluded to the point of craziness--to keep escalating as it hides the real problems in Russia itself( hides from Russians at least)
The west is not going to charge into an unnecessary war if it can avoid it--and that is exactly what Putin is counting on.  The sanctions will strangle Russia and send it broke- Putin has put Russia on a path to humiliation.
SLAVA UKRAYINI  ! HEROYAM SLAVA!!!!
Слава Украине! Слава героям слава!Слава Україні! Слава героям!
 translated as: Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!!!  is a Ukrainian greeting slogan being used now all over Ukraine to signify support for a free independent Ukraine

lordtiberius

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« Reply #334 on: November 03, 2014, 12:41:50 PM »
I can appreciate MissA's fruatration with all of us over this.  Many of us have an opinion because we care, but just how valuable or insightful any of those ideas are is pretty much garabage. 

We have family, friends and people we care about over there/here.  But the fact is everyone has family on both sides of the border.  I am biased and I assign blame to the President of Russia, who I think has cancer.  Both sides have Nazis fighting on both sides.  Our US Ambassador says there is no military solution then why is he and his diplomatic team so incompetent at this job of making peace?

Why aren't we talking directly to the Russian people?  In Soviet times, Ruskies would listen to BBC and VOa.  We just cut VOA funding and no one on team Obama the internet President can't use YouTube for anything except raising money.

We can blame Obama all we want but when are we going to own up to the fact compared to challenges to previous generations in facing down tyranny we ain't up to the task?  Or is a civizational gut check too much to ask from such low information voters? Present company including myself

Offline JayH

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« Reply #335 on: November 03, 2014, 12:44:35 PM »


I feel sorry for Ukraine president Poroshenko. He reminds me of the coach that takes the job on a losing team. Little chance in winning.

BB-- you only find out how clever you are when you really have your back to the wall.Anyone can run a business in boom times--managing and surviving when it is not all going your way is what decides how capable you are-- how tough you are.
What you are underestimating is the sheer will of the people of Ukraine-- the huge shift to support a united Ukraine is real-people want it.
Carping on about the negative "could be's" is doing the Ukrainian people a disservice and you are underestimating them  -especially in a time when the young men are being sacrificed  in this battle.
SLAVA UKRAYINI  ! HEROYAM SLAVA!!!!
Слава Украине! Слава героям слава!Слава Україні! Слава героям!
 translated as: Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!!!  is a Ukrainian greeting slogan being used now all over Ukraine to signify support for a free independent Ukraine

Offline AC

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« Reply #336 on: November 03, 2014, 01:12:42 PM »
BB-- you only find out how clever you are when you really have your back to the wall.Anyone can run a business in boom times--managing and surviving when it is not all going your way is what decides how capable you are-- how tough you are.
What you are underestimating is the sheer will of the people of Ukraine-- the huge shift to support a united Ukraine is real-people want it.
Carping on about the negative "could be's" is doing the Ukrainian people a disservice and you are underestimating them  -especially in a time when the young men are being sacrificed  in this battle.

I don't think that is his intention.  The situation in Ukraine is dire and he's being realistic about the overwhelming odds facing Ukraine.  Since the West has done so little in regards to giving them heavy weapons to defend themselves I think he is just making a truthful assessment.  Let's hope he is wrong; and hope that starting tomorrow when the US Congress is Republican some real action is taken in regards to helping Ukraine have the materials they need to defend themselves.  Even Stalin after WWII admitted how important the lend lease program was in helping the Soviets beat the Nazi's.  Now someone who admires Stalin wants to turn back the clock in regards to how the nation of Ukraine is treated. 

Offline Photo Guy

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« Reply #337 on: November 03, 2014, 02:05:31 PM »
About- creating a Land bridge to Crimea from Russia idea.
This would involve going through Mariupol'.

INSANE.
This city is heavily fortified. The people there are supportive of Ukraine. And yes- they mostly speak Russian there. The battle for Mariupol' will be bloody with lots of losses on both sides. Putin supports this invasion, again, because he likes the idea of New Russia. He wants to recreate the New Soviet Union. Rebel leaders talk about moving their front line as far west as possible. It's impossible to negotiate with crazy people. It's a horrible situation. A show of force is the only language the separatists understand.   

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« Reply #338 on: November 03, 2014, 02:10:53 PM »
About- creating a Land bridge to Crimea from Russia idea.
This would involve going through Mariupol'.

INSANE.
This city is heavily fortified. The people there are supportive of Ukraine. And yes- they mostly speak Russian there. The battle for Mariupol' will be bloody with lots of losses on both sides. Putin supports this invasion, again, because he likes the idea of New Russia. He wants to recreate the New Soviet Union. Rebel leaders talk about moving their front line as far west as possible. It's impossible to negotiate with crazy people. It's a horrible situation. A show of force is the only language the separatists understand.

Even if Putin does not go through with a full-fledged invasion, there are opinion pieces which say that he has already accomplished what he wanted to accomplish, which is a bankrupt Ukraine which he hopes will eventually come back "home" to mother Russia.  The question is then who will be economically harmed and stopped first -- Russia or Ukraine?

Offline Photo Guy

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« Reply #339 on: November 03, 2014, 02:29:00 PM »
Ukraine's economy is smaller and more fragile than Russia's. When Ukraine's economy crashes, they will not turn towards Putin. That's my prediction. Most Ukrainians see him as a mass murderer, and the one responsible for any economic collapse.

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #340 on: November 03, 2014, 04:57:40 PM »
They can go around the city and isolate from land it easily. Cut  water, gas lines and power. There are reports of shelling the city now.

 I also suspect that they want the land bridge to extend to Transnistria. That'll cut Ukraine off from any seaports they have.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2014, 04:59:12 PM by AkMike »

Offline Photo Guy

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« Reply #341 on: November 03, 2014, 05:40:03 PM »
If they push that far, it's pure idiocy. Everyone loses, including Russia. 

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« Reply #342 on: November 03, 2014, 06:20:55 PM »
If they push that far, it's pure idiocy. Everyone loses, including Russia.

I would characterize it as sheer lunacy.  Do you expect anything less from a short little Napoleonic egomaniac?

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #343 on: November 03, 2014, 06:40:39 PM »
If they push that far, it's pure idiocy. Everyone loses, including Russia.

And? your point would be? :popcorn:

 There's nothing sane in what Russia has been doing.

lordtiberius

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« Reply #344 on: November 03, 2014, 06:43:43 PM »
Billy's military analysis fails on several fronts.  First, none of his dire predictions have ever come true.  In fact, he ignores Ukrainian reverses or the efforts of the Date nbass Cyborgs who against all odds hold the airport.  Second, the Russian federation in Ukraine has no air support.  Ukraine doesn't exactly dominate the skies given the antiaircraft assets the Russians have in Eastern Ukraine.  Nonetheless we aren't seeing air to air battles and Ukraine's ability to bring its air force to the fight is a keep advantage.  Third, the Russians themselves can't seem to get the job done.  Military expert Dmitry Tymchuk estimates more than 24,000 Russians in Eastern Ukraine.  But they execute a low level of discipline and do not operate under a unified  single command. 


Offline AkMike

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« Reply #345 on: November 03, 2014, 06:52:37 PM »
  Military expert Dmitry Tymchuk estimates more than 24,000 Russians in Eastern Ukraine.  But they execute a low level of discipline and do not operate under a unified  single command.

Do you have any links about these numbers? It seems very large compared to other 'guesstimates'.

lordtiberius

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« Reply #346 on: November 03, 2014, 06:54:01 PM »
There aren't any queues in PrivatBank either.  Until there is serious banking reform the best thing to do is to horde dollars under your mattress.

That said, there is a lot economic activity in Ukraine and not all of it is bad.  Inflation and gas prices remain a problem but the tourist economy in Lviv has picked up.

Not that this is scientific, but roads are getting repaired.  People drive mostly foreign cars here.  Advertisements for new cars and apartments are everywhere.

Ukraine's best resource is its people and Generation Maidan is just entering the workforce.

lordtiberius

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« Reply #347 on: November 03, 2014, 06:55:52 PM »
Do you have any links about these numbers? It seems very large compared to other 'guesstimates'.
http://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=583876065074386&id=100003559926167


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« Reply #348 on: November 03, 2014, 07:04:12 PM »
Second, the Russian federation in Ukraine has no air support.  Ukraine doesn't exactly dominate the skies given the antiaircraft assets the Russians have in Eastern Ukraine.  Nonetheless we aren't seeing air to air battles and Ukraine's ability to bring its air force to the fight is a keepn advantage.

The Russian Federation in Ukraine has no air support because Putin has not authorized it. He can deny arming the separatists if he doesn't send in Russian aircraft.  He can't do that if he does.  You're being obtuse.  If Putin authorizes a full scale invasion it's going to be fast and furious. 

Your numbers of Russian soldiers inside of Ukraine are also greatly exaggerated.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2014, 07:09:54 PM by AC »

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« Reply #349 on: November 03, 2014, 07:14:06 PM »
http://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=583876065074386&id=100003559926167

Read that link carefully.  Above you claim that there are approximately 24,000 Russian soldiers inside of Ukraine, and yet the link you provide states that there are approximately 14,000 combined mercenaries and Russian soldiers, and then another 10,0000 to 12,0000 local fighters.

The devil is in the details.

 

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