More Bad News for Russia

[AC]

With the Rouble in free fall, soon even eating dirt will become an unaffordable luxury for the average Russian citizen...

Wishful thinking.

[JayH]

I like Poroshenko but he's in charge of a losing team. Prior to him showing up, Ukraine was a place of corruption and dysfunction. Putin is partially to blame for them being where they're at. They can change overnight.


Putin also has made good moves to achieve his objectives. Based on the recent sham elections in east Ukraine, Putin is one step closer to owning more land.




What do you think the sanctions are suppose to achieve? Hurt the Russian economy or stop Putin? Putin has not stopped and there is no sign of him wanting to stop. Russian Foreign Ministry below says sanctions will fail to achieve goals.


http://en.ria.ru/world/20140804/191708921/Sanctions-Applied-by-West-Will-Fail-to-Achieve-Goals.html


Putin has influence in Syria and Iran. He can promote mayhem in those regions to keep the focus off Russia and hurt the people hurting him.


Germany once endured worse than sanctions. With their economy and infrastructure shattered after WWI, they were forced to pay war reparations. It pissed the Germans off more. They gave their support to a fanatic named Hitler, worked hard to rebuild and become a military power, and were led to a greater war. Sanctions are pissing Russians off and Putin is gaining support and increasing the size of his military. With sanctions being the only thing the West is willing to do, Putin has plenty of time to build his empire. With the Ruble declining, Levi jeans will become more expensive to Russian citizens but it's not a necessary item needed in the production of guns and tanks.

You make far to many assumptions.

Sanctions were never going to be a 5 minute influence on Putin--or on Russian thinking. Sanctions and the impact will take time to really hit home and start changing Russian opinions.
To repeat-- the sanctions will be continually ramped up -in the long term it will leave Russia as isolated prior to the collapse of the USSR.

You are wrong about Putin having time-- he is on borrowed time now.
He is staking a lot on a military victory in Ukraine-- and that is now no where near as certain as previously. A loss-- or serious losses will see real pressure on Putin himself-- and of course on Russia in general.

For Ukraine--if time can be bought( at the cost of conducting a war in the east) it will give the new government the chance to start to govern-that is something they have hardly had the chance to do since getting rid of Yanukovytch & co.

One other point--if you BB persist in stating ridiculous ideas like you will believe in Ukrainians intent to fight when they attempt to take back the Crimea- is a truly ridiculous comment and totally misses the point that Ukraine is fighting to protect themselves and good Ukrainian lives are being lost- your attitude is disrespectful.

[lordtiberius]

Billy, Germany is not Russia.  Ukraine is not losing.  Ukraine gains allies everyday where Russia gets weaker and weaker.  Sanctions aren't supposed to deter Putin but to create incentives for his potential successor. 

[BillyB]

With the Rouble in free fall, soon even eating dirt will become an unaffordable luxury for the average Russian citizen...

Items that have to be imported will only be expensive to Russians. They will ramp up manufacturing within their own country to suit their needs.

Sanctions were never going to be a 5 minute influence on Putin--or on Russian thinking. Sanctions and the impact will take time to really hit home and start changing Russian opinions.

Maybe the pro Putin's living in Russia can respond to your thoughts. Are they more pissed off with Putin or the West compared to how they felt 6 months ago?

To repeat-- the sanctions will be continually ramped up -in the long term it will leave Russia as isolated prior to the collapse of the USSR.

Cuba never did see it our way. Iran and North Korea will achieve their goals. Sanctions only delay the inevitable. It's not a question of "if" Iran and North Korea will manufacture nukes, it's a question of "when". Can anybody educate us on when sanctions worked on a country?

One other point--if you BB persist in stating ridiculous ideas like you will believe in Ukrainians intent to fight when they attempt to take back the Crimea- is a truly ridiculous comment and totally misses the point that Ukraine is fighting to protect themselves and good Ukrainian lives are being lost- your attitude is disrespectful.

Poroshenko said he's intent on taking back Crimea on day one. Unfortunately he later learned his military isn't capable. No matter how much you believe the Ukrainian fighting spirit will prevail, reality says they need outside help that so far hasn't arrived.


http://www.presstv.com/detail/2014/05/26/364280/i-will-get-crimea-back-poroshenko/

[lordtiberius]

Wrong again.  Sanctions brought Iran to the bargaining table.  Also sanctions weren't meant to deter NK but isolate it.  Sanctions again aren't meant to topple Castro but punish Cuba.  Again Billy all wrong.  Meanwhile the dollar gets stronger while Putin presumably dying of cancer gets weaker.

[BillyB]

Wrong again.  Sanctions brought Iran to the bargaining table. 

While waiting the nuclear program advances, why not come to the table so Iran can get concessions from the West? After they make advances, they cut the locks off the reactor doors and shut off the surveillance cameras. They have been playing a game over and over with us for years.

  Also sanctions weren't meant to deter NK but isolate it. 

So we weren't trying to deter NK from getting nukes and the goal is punishing their people? Well then, NK is free to get nukes since nobody is deterring them from that goal.

  Sanctions again aren't meant to topple Castro but punish Cuba.

Did Castro give back the land he stole from foreign citizens? NO, so the sanctions didn't work. Anybody else wanna try to show a case where sanctions worked?

[lordtiberius]

Do you know how close Florida is to Cuba?  If sanctions aren't working why aren't New Yorkers building retirement homes there?  Again,  with respect to NK, sanctions were meant to isolate.  The fact it built a nuclear bomb when Clinton lifted sanctions are not that sanctions did not work its that some people were foolish enough to believe a leopard can change its spots.

You are depriving the West of its important weapon in siege warfare.  You have to have the stomach for it if you are going to wage it.

[AkMike]

The Rubble/Ruble bounced off of 46.13.

 Then they have to find $30B next month for bond repos.

50 B for Yukos shareholders in January.
715 B budgeted for military stuff for the coming years.
They are using the rainy day funds planned for retirement pensions and health to support corporations like ROSNEFT
Crimea is in deep shiat. More $$$$$
They plan 2018 for the football championship so more stealing to come.$$$$


Sucks to be them..

[Brasscasing]

Wouldn't this just burn Putin's borscht...

Canada emerges as potential buyer of French-built Mistral-class warships

..."The Canadian military has emerged as a potential destination for the controversial French-built Mistral-class helicopter carrier ships, built for Russia, the International Business Times is reporting.

The possibility of a Canadian solution appeared in French media after French President François Hollande visited Canada this week, the newspaper reported.

This type of suggestion has surfaced before. Former Conservative Senator Hugh Segal suggested that Canada or NATO should buy the Mistral-class military assault ships rather than allow them to be added to the Russia naval fleet."...

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/11/06/canada-emerges-as-potential-buyer-of-french-built-mistral-class-warships/

There'd be a hell of a fight with Canadian shipbuilders though so I doubt it'll happen (without concessions).

Brass

[lordtiberius]

The Sopranos with nukes are moving more missiles on the border.  If these bastards are winning, why do they need reinforcement during a ceasefire?

[Anotherkiwi]

What do you think the sanctions are suppose to achieve? Hurt the Russian economy or stop Putin? Putin has not stopped and there is no sign of him wanting to stop. Russian Foreign Ministry below says sanctions will fail to achieve goals.


http://en.ria.ru/world/20140804/191708921/Sanctions-Applied-by-West-Will-Fail-to-Achieve-Goals.html

Billy, that link is three months old.  For most world affairs I don't think that would matter, but in this case it does.  We've already had Russian Government officials admitting that the sanctions ARE hurting which, given the West's disinclination to provide practical help to Ukraine, is probably the only step in the right direction that we will see.  Only time will tell now if Ukraine can survive long enough to see the end of Putin - but it will still need help to do so.

[lordtiberius]

A new American President might have different ideas

[BillyB]

Billy, that link is three months old. 

Today is no different than 3 months ago. The sanctions haven't achieved it's goals.

We've already had Russian Government officials admitting that the sanctions ARE hurting

Hurting Russia is not the goal of the sanctions. The goal of the sanctions is to discourage Putin from grabbing more land. There is belief that hurting Russia's economy will get Putin to give up his ambitions. I believe it pisses him off more. He's going to show the West he'll get what he wants and with the weak response from the West, he'll do it without a major military campaign.


Many Russians consider Putin is the man who got Russia back on it's feet after the USSR dissolved. His bold moves and tough guy stance towards the West only solidifies his standing among most citizens.


Here's current news. Russia is moving ballistic missiles on Ukraine's border. I wouldn't be surprised with east Ukraine's newly elected leadership, they'll be inviting Russia into their home.


http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-moving-rockets-towards-ukraine-battlefield-2014-11

[AC]

Sadly I agree with Billy B's analysis.  If Russia wanted to they could likely get their land-bridge within a few days.  The current US administration would do nothing but talk and talk is cheap.  The current leaders in the EU don't like the harm being done to their economy.

I also agree with BB's assertion that sanctions alone are just making Putin and his crowd mad.  Last thing the world needs is an angry hornet's nest with Nuclear weapons.  He's probably getting ready to make a move.  The only thing holding him back is he is likely studying what effect the change in US leadership is going to have.  Without a real leader at the top the Congress alone is not able to protect Ukraine.

Another analyst (a real one, not an internet hero like us guys) I read thinks that Russia will invade next spring.  Either way without Ukraine getting the heavy weapons assistance they need I think it will be a miracle if their country remains intact.  Okay cheerleaders, start the hate session.

[ML]

With the Rouble in free fall, soon even eating dirt will become an unaffordable luxury for the average Russian citizen...

The idea of a 'free fall' or any sort of change, plus or minus, is with respect to other currencies.

This need not have any effect on the price of locally produced items.

Yes, it often does, strictly because those in control of locally produced items are hedging their bets against what might happen in the domestic economy.

[Photo Guy]

Wouldn't this just burn Putin's borscht...

Canada emerges as potential buyer of French-built Mistral-class warships

Great news! I hope that's true...

[Gator]

The idea of a 'free fall' or any sort of change, plus or minus, is with respect to other currencies.

This need not have any effect on the price of locally produced items.

Yes, it often does, strictly because those in control of locally produced items are hedging their bets against what might happen in the domestic economy.

The issue goes beyond local goods.  Those local goods that can be exported will be worth more in ruble terms, and Russian citizens would need to pay more for vodka, etc.  In fact, if Russia were a large exporter of manufactured goods, the devaluation would be helpful to the economy.  However, Russian exports are limited mostly to commodities.  I guess Russia will be selling more military weapons to India, etc.

I can only assume that the devaluation  would discourage investment, particularly foreign investment.  It would also encourage flight of capital.  Both of these are harmful to the economy over an extended period. 

So how are Putin's plans progressing for a currency exchange shared with China and India, creating something competitive to the dollar and Euro?  I can only guess the Chines want their Yuan back.   

[AkMike]

Who in their right mind would want to invest there when the government is taking private business away and will not allow foreigner's to own more than 20%?

[lordtiberius]

Every day the Ruble falls is a great day for Ukraine. 

From my friend Anders Ostlund:
Russia's economy: No access to credit, no investments, no manufacturing, brain drain, sinking oil price, lower oil production expected.


China to invade Russia
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/2014/11/window-on-eurasia-if-anyone-is-going-to.html?m=1


I predict Ukraine will invade and Occupy Moscow.

[Belvis]

As I inderstand not many of posters are involved in international markets. Othewise they would not believe too much in free ruble fall. Just a couple of facts for consideration:

1. Ruble was devaluated in 4 times in crisis in 1998.  Nothing happened, or at least all  consequences were forgot in a year.

2. Japanese yena declines against dollar by 44% for the last two years. It's more than ruble at the same time. Japan is heading for a crush?

[AkMike]

Except the Nipponese aren't invading their neighbors and murdering them.

[Chelseaboy]

I wonder how the NATO troops training of the Ukrainian armed forces in western Ukraine is coming along ?

I suspect the Russians and their separatist mates are gonna have a huge shock if they try and advance further into Ukraine...and will probably also have real problems trying to hold the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

Well-trained Ukrainian troops who are very pissed-off with Russia fighting Russian conscripts and mercenaries ..i'm not so convinced by the doom mongers on here about Ukraine's chances in this war.

None of us know if any advanced weapons have been supplied to Ukraine by NATO  countries.

How many of the armchair experts on here would want to face angry Ukrainians on the field of battle or in the war-torn cities ?

Ukrainians are a merciless bunch...especially when they're fighting for their families,their homes,their land i'd imagine.

Will make Bosnia seem like a walk in the park i suspect.

So,with the Russian economy tanking big-time and the Russian body-bags piling up in the trucks going back to Russia,let's see how long the Russian nationalistic worship for Putler lasts. .

[lordtiberius]

As I inderstand not many of posters are involved in international markets. Othewise they would not believe too much in free ruble fall. Just a couple of facts for consideration:

1. Ruble was devaluated in 4 times in crisis in 1998.  Nothing happened, or at least all  consequences were forgot in a year.

2. Japanese yena declines against dollar by 44% for the last two years. It's more than ruble at the same time. Japan is heading for a crush?

So by nothing happened you mean people lost their life savings?

Japan has experienced a second lost decade, cruising for a third.  But maybe this is prosperity in Putin's Russia.

[lordtiberius]

Wishful thinking.

Not so wishful, but certain to students of history . . .

[lordtiberius]

Except the Nipponese aren't invading their neighbors and murdering them.

Retaking the Kurile Islands would be nice