Poroshenko claims Ukraine is now being offered weapons by NATO.

[Brasscasing]

JANUARY 06, 2015
NATO's Priority in 2015: Setting Up Reaction Force in Europe




With NATO officially out of combat operations in Afghanistan as of Jan. 1, the alliance's agenda is expected to be dominated by the new strategic realities in Europe conjured up by Moscow's annexation of Crimea and alleged proxy war in eastern Ukraine, and what the West should do in response. . . .
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nato-s-priority-in-2015-setting-up-reaction-force-in-europe

This is part of a larger strategy known as "tripwire". It supposes that even a multi nation rapid reaction force of what amounts to only one reinforced brigade will be enough to give Mr. Putin pause as engaging would invoke a full on Article 5 response or at least that's the theory.

What's significant is the wording in the NATO press release...

..."At their Wales Summit in September 2014, Allies agreed to create a spearhead within the NRF – a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), able to deploy at very short notice, particularly at the periphery of NATO’s territory. The VJTF should consist of a land component with appropriate air, maritime and Special Operations Forces available"...

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm

"pe·riph·ery noun \pə-ˈri-f(ə-)rē\ 

: the outside edge of an area : the area that surrounds a place or thing"

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/periphery

I've seen this phraseology/wording used in the past. It may become significant in the months ahead.

Brass

[AC]

This is part of a larger strategy known as "tripwire". It supposes that even a multi nation rapid reaction force of what amounts to only one reinforced brigade will be enough to give Mr. Putin pause as engaging would invoke a full on Article 5 response or at least that's the theory.

What's significant is the wording in the NATO press release...

..."At their Wales Summit in September 2014, Allies agreed to create a spearhead within the NRF – a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), able to deploy at very short notice, particularly at the periphery of NATO’s territory. The VJTF should consist of a land component with appropriate air, maritime and Special Operations Forces available"...

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm

"pe·riph·ery noun \pə-ˈri-f(ə-)rē\ 

: the outside edge of an area : the area that surrounds a place or thing"

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/periphery

I've seen this phraseology/wording used in the past. It may become significant in the months ahead.

Brass

Very interesting observation, thanks for pointing it out.  Compare and contrast the language of Putin (I'm a madman with Nukes, don't mess with me! or The bear does what he wants on his tundra, and we consider Ukraine to be our Tundra!) to the measured but clearly escalating words of NATO.  The pro-Russian bunch like to claim that the West is weak, and in some ways we have been, but we're getting there.

[AC]

This is a good link I found on facebook, the Defense Ministry of Ukraine.  Although I can't read it without getting a poor translation from bing or Google, I do enjoy the pictures.   

http://www.facebook.com/theministryofdefence.ua/photos/pcb.835865656475941/835865453142628/?type=1&theater

[BillyB]

This is part of a larger strategy known as "tripwire". It supposes that even a multi nation rapid reaction force of what amounts to only one reinforced brigade will be enough to give Mr. Putin pause as engaging would invoke a full on Article 5 response or at least that's the theory.

One little brigade will merely be a speed bump for 20 armored Russian divisions. NATO members made pact to come to each others aid in war. Isn't their promise to each other enough? Creating an extra brigade of troops to show Putin they mean business is a little silly. Even JayH's article said they still haven't determined who's going to pay for it. It's always a great idea until it has to be paid for. It's no secret most NATO members in Europe do not spend the required 2% of their GDP on defense spending. They expect America to do the security work. Putin understands most of those nations do not put money where their mouth is.

[lordtiberius]

One little brigade will merely be a speed bump for 20 armored Russian divisions. NATO members made pact to come to each others aid in war. Isn't their promise to each other enough? Creating an extra brigade of troops to show Putin they mean business is a little silly. Even JayH's article said they still haven't determined who's going to pay for it. It's always a great idea until it has to be paid for. It's no secret most NATO members in Europe do not spend the required 2% of their GDP on defense spending. They expect America to do the security work. Putin understands most of those nations do not put money where their mouth is.

20 armoured divisions?  Really?  Show me.

[Faux Pas]

One little brigade will merely be a speed bump for 20 armored Russian divisions. NATO members made pact to come to each others aid in war. Isn't their promise to each other enough? Creating an extra brigade of troops to show Putin they mean business is a little silly. Even JayH's article said they still haven't determined who's going to pay for it. It's always a great idea until it has to be paid for. It's no secret most NATO members in Europe do not spend the required 2% of their GDP on defense spending. They expect America to do the security work. Putin understands most of those nations do not put money where their mouth is.

Paying for it is never an issue Billy. There are always financiers and they always collect. There are people who will finance a war faster than you can get a $300 title loan

[Chelseaboy]

BillyB,

           These over-hyped Russian troops haven't done much good in Ukraine have they ?

They can't even take Donetsk airport against the poorly equipped Ukrainian troops..i'd call them useless myself.

They're about as effective as they were in Afghanistan.

If their troops are not getting shelled by their own side because they couldn't read a compass and got lost,their special forces elite are getting sent back to Russia in bodybags from Donetsk airport

One NATO brigade could probably wipe the floor with them .

No wonder Putin is asking for foreign soldiers to join the Russian troops lol.

[JayH]

The one thing BillyB said that I agree with is that Ukraine needs help !!

Ukraine is currently mobilising another 200.000 into the military-- this is a very serious number of additional troops that will come online this year.
Now that there is a supply chain of basics happening some of the required pieces are on the way  .I am not going to keep repeating the improved performance of Ukrainian miiitary over the course of last year-- sure they started from a low base--but as patriots have assumed positions of command  they have proved to be an effective fighting force-- as Chelseaboy points out above.
Putin's boasts  are/were just that--hollow and lacking substance--possible in theory but lacking the real life capability. It also overlooks the declining morale of the Russian troops-- and the increasing morale and dedication of Ukraine as a whole-- and specifically the improving morale of Ukrainian troops as they gain confidence.

[BillyB]

20 armoured divisions?  Really?  Show me.

Google is quite easy to use. Russia has over 15,000 tanks. An armored division usually has 300 tanks assigned to it. You may have read somewhere Russia has less than 20 armored divisions and that may be true in peacetime but in wartime nations will activate the inactive units.


http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=russia

These over-hyped Russian troops haven't done much good in Ukraine have they ?

No wonder Putin is asking for foreign soldiers to join the Russian troops lol.

It's easy to ridicule a person or nation you don't like but this is no laughing matter. Russia has the ability to take all of Eastern Europe in a short time if they wanted to and shatter the economies of Western Europe.


America already have brigades that are capable of travelling anywhere in the world within 24 hrs and engage in combat. These high speed rapid forces usually consist of paratroopers and light infantry. It's hard to transport heavy armor so quickly. Light infantry won't do much against heavy armor. If Putin decides to plow through Eastern Europe with dozens of armored divisions, Obama would be stupid to drop a few brigades of lightly equipped troops into a meat grinder. To meet NATO requirements, America will mobilize on Western European soil, get organized and begin attack only when at proper strength to dominate a fight. Poland and the Baltic nations realize this and that is why they are scared to death what Russia could do. They understand their world would be destroyed before fellow NATO members come to their rescue.

[JayH]

Paying for it is never an issue Billy. There are always financiers and they always collect. There are people who will finance a war faster than you can get a $300 title loan

Who will pay?  By far the cheapest way to correct Russia's behaviour is to assist Ukraine--read Soros article that covers a lot of common sense reasons why the EU and the west should be assisting Ukraine in every way.

My view is that Ukraine can resurrect it's economy based on   going to war! The inflow of funds into the economy can provide the stimulous in a positive way as employment is created--in the miitary and in the support systems of industry surrounding it. Many defence based industries already are there-- expanding and using available expertise can be a cornerstone to improving the economy.
The flow on effect to the economy can be in substantial multiples of every dollar spent. They would not be the first country to have economic benefit from being at war!!
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=17913.msg387585#msg387585

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/feb/05/new-policy-rescue-ukraine/

[JayH]

It's easy to ridicule a person or nation you don't like but this is no laughing matter. Russia has the ability to take all of Eastern Europe in a short time if they wanted to and shatter the economies of Western Europe.


America already have brigades that are capable of travelling anywhere in the world within 24 hrs and engage in combat. These high speed rapid forces usually consist of paratroopers and light infantry. It's hard to transport heavy armor so quickly. Light infantry won't do much against heavy armor. If Putin decides to plow through Eastern Europe with dozens of armored divisions, Obama would be stupid to drop a few brigades of lightly equipped troops into a meat grinder. To meet NATO requirements, America will mobilize on Western European soil, get organized and begin attack only when at proper strength to dominate a fight. Poland and the Baltic nations realize this and that is why they are scared to death what Russia could do. They understand their world would be destroyed before fellow NATO members come to their rescue.

  If Russia rolled in to that extent--the US and Nato would respond--that is my scenario of geographically limited total war( short of global nuclear). If that happened-- the western forces(via US) would not need one piece of ground armour to destroy EVERY Russian piece .
Given western air cover & support,intelligence,logistics,weaponary -Ukrainian forces would wipe the floor with the Russians and humiliate them.

[lordtiberius]

Google is quite easy to use. Russia has over 15,000 tanks. An armored division usually has 300 tanks assigned to it. You may have read somewhere Russia has less than 20 armored divisions and that may be true in peacetime but in wartime nations will activate the inactive units.


http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=russia

Google it? 

ahhh ok.

I don't think we have much to worry about . . . MAYBE I am wrong but no

[lordtiberius]

Who will pay?  By far the cheapest way to correct Russia's behaviour is to assist Ukraine--read Soros article that covers a lot of common sense reasons why the EU and the west should be assisting Ukraine in every way.

My view is that Ukraine can resurrect it's economy based on   going to war! The inflow of funds into the economy can provide the stimulous in a positive way as employment is created--in the miitary and in the support systems of industry surrounding it. Many defence based industries already are there-- expanding and using available expertise can be a cornerstone to improving the economy.
The flow on effect to the economy can be in substantial multiples of every dollar spent. They would not be the first country to have economic benefit from being at war!!
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=17913.msg387585#msg387585

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/feb/05/new-policy-rescue-ukraine/

Soros is only asking for $ 50 B.  It will need A LOT more . . .

[fathertime]

Given western air cover & support,intelligence,logistics,weaponary -Ukrainian forces would wipe the floor with the Russians and humiliate them.

Dreaming again!   


Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

ahhh OK FT . . .

[Faux Pas]

Who will pay?  By far the cheapest way to correct Russia's behaviour is to assist Ukraine--read Soros article that covers a lot of common sense reasons why the EU and the west should be assisting Ukraine in every way.

My view is that Ukraine can resurrect it's economy based on   going to war! The inflow of funds into the economy can provide the stimulous in a positive way as employment is created--in the miitary and in the support systems of industry surrounding it. Many defence based industries already are there-- expanding and using available expertise can be a cornerstone to improving the economy.
The flow on effect to the economy can be in substantial multiples of every dollar spent. They would not be the first country to have economic benefit from being at war!!
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=17913.msg387585#msg387585

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/feb/05/new-policy-rescue-ukraine/

They don't pay, they finance. Take your pick of any of the international banks. Likely you carry a credit card from one or two, Rockefellers, de Rothschilds, a Russian oligarch, the Chinese has a few anxious to do business.

Where do you think that money would come from for a war reviving an economy, appeared from thin air? I really don't get your eagerness to spill blood to revive an economy though. But I guess it's alright as long as it isn't your blood?

[JayH]

They don't pay, they finance. Take your pick of any of the international banks. Likely you carry a credit card from one or two, Rockefellers, de Rothschilds, a Russian oligarch, the Chinese has a few anxious to do business.

Where do you think that money would come from for a war reviving an economy, appeared from thin air? I really don't get your eagerness to spill blood to revive an economy though. But I guess it's alright as long as it isn't your blood?

Not eager to see any Ukrainian blood spilt at all-- when you can arrange for removal/withdrawl of Russia from Ukrainian territory without it--let me know!
Where will the money come from-- actually read the link--Soros has a few ideas and suggestions.
Ukraine has multi facetted series of problems to solve-potential solutions need to be inter connected-- as I outlined they can be.

The bottom line-- it would be a lot cheaper for the west generally-- to assist Ukraine in every way-- than having to fight Russia in another sphere.
QUOTING SOROS
"Europe needs to wake up and recognize that it is under attack from Russia. Assisting Ukraine should also be considered as a defense expenditure by the EU countries. Framed this way, the amounts currently contemplated shrink into insignificance. If the international authorities fail to come up with an impressive assistance program in response to an aggressive Ukrainian reform program, the new Ukraine will probably fail, Europe will be left on its own to defend itself against Russian aggression, and Europe will have abandoned the values and principles on which the European Union was founded. That would be an irreparable loss."
End Quote

[Faux Pas]

Not eager to see any Ukrainian blood spilt at all-- when you can arrange for removal/withdrawl of Russia from Ukrainian territory without it--let me know!
Where will the money come from-- actually read the link--Soros has a few ideas and suggestions.
Ukraine has multi facetted series of problems to solve-potential solutions need to be inter connected-- as I outlined they can be.

The bottom line-- it would be a lot cheaper for the west generally-- to assist Ukraine in every way-- than having to fight Russia in another sphere.
QUOTING SOROS
"Europe needs to wake up and recognize that it is under attack from Russia. Assisting Ukraine should also be considered as a defense expenditure by the EU countries. Framed this way, the amounts currently contemplated shrink into insignificance. If the international authorities fail to come up with an impressive assistance program in response to an aggressive Ukrainian reform program, the new Ukraine will probably fail, Europe will be left on its own to defend itself against Russian aggression, and Europe will have abandoned the values and principles on which the European Union was founded. That would be an irreparable loss."
End Quote

That's all well and good but the only problem that Ukraine has that can solved by war and that's no given is it's Russia problem. War should definitely be the last resort not the first. A war while a shot in the arm to an economy is only artificial. Ukraine has a GDP and national debt problem with a stagnant economy. After the war even if Ukraine won the problems would not only remain but be compounded and many Ukrainians dead. Be careful what you ask for

[lordtiberius]

He's right.  I personally don't even want their bastards dying.  Their bastards wouldn't be over there if even bigger bastards didn't put them there.  The economic choke hold is working.  I will credit the Saudis for it unless someone can prove to me that the Great Pretender is responsible then I will go where Reggie Love and  hundreds of gay men have gone and kiss his a$$.

[JayH]

FP-- one of the future keys to improving Ukrainian economy can be the multiplier effect of incoming funds-that can be in excess of 10 times as the money goes around in the economy. EG-- not much point in handing oligarchs the money where they can pocket 90% and effectively take it out of the economy-- whereas if it is used to create jobs and more jobs as it gets 100% spent repeatedly it is possible to improve the economy.
  If a lot of those jobs are initially created in paying military personal, in factories manufacturing and maintaining the war machine etc etc--the flow on to smaller suppliers spreads the money far and wide-- and creates the possibility to finance less war based industries.
Ukraine already has considerable underused capacity to make military hardware-- and aerospace -- a lot was interconnected with Russia previously-- and now that avenue is closed there is the opportunity to fill that void and manufacture in Ukraine. That could be interacted with the EU itself in the new arrangements-- so many possibilities are there.

[lordtiberius]

FP-- one of the future keys to improving Ukrainian economy can be the multiplier effect of incoming funds-that can be in excess of 10 times as the money goes around in the economy. EG-- not much point in handing oligarchs the money where they can pocket 90% and effectively take it out of the economy-- whereas if it is used to create jobs and more jobs as it gets 100% spent repeatedly it is possible to improve the economy.
  If a lot of those jobs are initially created in paying military personal, in factories manufacturing and maintaining the war machine etc etc--the flow on to smaller suppliers spreads the money far and wide-- and creates the possibility to finance less war based industries.
Ukraine already has considerable underused capacity to make military hardware-- and aerospace -- a lot was interconnected with Russia previously-- and now that avenue is closed there is the opportunity to fill that void and manufacture in Ukraine. That could be interacted with the EU itself in the new arrangements-- so many possibilities are there.

please explain

[JayH]

He's right.  I personally don't even want their bastards dying.  Their bastards wouldn't be over there if even bigger bastards didn't put them there.  The economic choke hold is working.  I will credit the Saudis for it unless someone can prove to me that the Great Pretender is responsible then I will go where Reggie Love and  hundreds of gay men have gone and kiss his a$$.

History will prove my case on that-I am in no doubt.My view is that he has handled this well--given all the complexities of the situation. I give credit to all of his administration on this. Now they are in moving to a more overt support of Ukraine phase- softly softly!!
Have faith LT-right will overcome-eventually!!

The sanctions are important-very important as has been all the economic attack--BUT-- Putin & Russia are not rational . They are more likely to expand the militarism in the face of defeat rather than concede.Getting rid of Putin could see a bigger madman get control- so being prepared for a worse case scenario is logical.

[lordtiberius]

I would still like you to explain your previous post if you can.

I agree with you that the Kremlin is nuttier than the vegan stool.  But wars are very expensive and I question their capacity to wage war.  I don't believe Putin will last very much longer in Russia.  His ouster could give us a Strelkov or Rogozin, but then it would be Sidney Reilly's wet dream who would rule Russia after that.  I believe Russia must be partitioned and divided and that Moscow and Lenningrad be separated from these new states or protectorates.  I do not see American or even Western European powers participating in this at all.  But that it must happen.  As a precondition of their recognition they must disarm.  That is the only way we can assure ourselves that the Soviet Union will never reemerge.

[Faux Pas]

FP-- one of the future keys to improving Ukrainian economy can be the multiplier effect of incoming funds-that can be in excess of 10 times as the money goes around in the economy. EG-- not much point in handing oligarchs the money where they can pocket 90% and effectively take it out of the economy-- whereas if it is used to create jobs and more jobs as it gets 100% spent repeatedly it is possible to improve the economy.
  If a lot of those jobs are initially created in paying military personal, in factories manufacturing and maintaining the war machine etc etc--the flow on to smaller suppliers spreads the money far and wide-- and creates the possibility to finance less war based industries.
Ukraine already has considerable underused capacity to make military hardware-- and aerospace -- a lot was interconnected with Russia previously-- and now that avenue is closed there is the opportunity to fill that void and manufacture in Ukraine. That could be interacted with the EU itself in the new arrangements-- so many possibilities are there.

JayH you're missing the entire point here guy. You say 10 times (I think it's more like 7 but no matter) where do you think each one of those Grivnas are coming from? It is borrowed money and all of it plus goes back to the lender. That money generates war effort, war machine and war profiteers, little else. War isn't the answer, it's a desperate last resort

[JayH]

JayH you're missing the entire point here guy. You say 10 times (I think it's more like 7 but no matter) where do you think each one of those Grivnas are coming from? It is borrowed money and all of it plus goes back to the lender. That money generates war effort, war machine and war profiteers, little else. War isn't the answer, it's a desperate last resort

I am not being glib here--but they are already confronted with a war not of their own making. The potential for a much bigger war is right now in front of them.
From the EU perspective-Ukraine is in the frontline for what could be a widened assault--either overtly or by stealth-- at the very least it will require increased spending by EU and Nato countries to allow them to feel comfortable.
Confronting Russia now while they are already involved in military action can set a new agenda. A successful Ukraine-- both militarily and economically will be the catalyst for Russian internal reform.Given that--the potential for great instability in the region is real.
With Nato and EU countries faced with a potential out of control Russia-- spending money on assisting Ukraine now is a lot cheaper option than all the Nato countries upgrading to meet the new threat-that's the point-- and that is where the money can come from.
Not all this money would be in repayable loans.
A more stable Ukraine with a more assured future -could start to attract the investment capital  to seed the growth. ( see Soros comments)
It is a combination of capital inflow that if considered in an overall situation you can start to see what is possible. I have commented all along that because of Russia-- Ukraine will get far more  help to create a new Ukraine than they would have-- and current events are bearing that idea out.

For the record-- with so much unemployment,underemployment,wages below a living wage-- the multiplier of creating employment and paying better  would be at conservative estimate of 10-- closer to twice your 7 in a economy and situation Ukraine is in today.
MORE SOROS QUOTE--
"Putin’s ambition to recreate a Russian empire has unintentionally helped bring into being a new Ukraine that is opposed to Russia and seeks to become the opposite of the old Ukraine with its endemic corruption and ineffective government. The new Ukraine is led by the cream of civil society: young people, many of whom studied abroad and refused to join either government or business on their return because they found both of them repugnant. Many of them found their place in academic institutions, think tanks, and nongovernmental organizations. A widespread volunteer movement, of unprecedented scope and power unseen in other countries, has helped Ukraine to stand strong against Russian aggression. Its members were willing to risk their lives on the Maidan for the sake of a better future and they are determined not to repeat the mistakes of the past, including the political infighting that undermined the Orange Revolution. A politically engaged civil society is the best assurance against a return of the old Ukraine: activists would return to the Maidan if the politicians engaged in the kind of petty squabbling and corruption that ruined the old Ukraine.

The reformists in the new Ukrainian government are advocating a radical “big bang” reform program that is intended to have a dramatic impact. This program aims to break the stranglehold of corruption by shrinking the bureaucracy while paying the remaining civil servants better"

END QUOTE