Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?

[LAman]

Those with serious issues with manipulation of stats should indeed have sympathy ..

In the meantime,  Brits travelling to Moscow may be asked to self-isolate - or be forced to ...


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-51781573

"Going to Moscow? You may need to self-isolate
If you're planning a trip to Russia - or more specifically, the country's capital - you should probably be aware of this, from our political correspondent Jonathan Blake:

The UK government is warning people travelling to Moscow that they may be asked to self-isolate for 14 days on arrival, due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Updated travel advice says there are reports in Russia, citing official sources, that the UK will be added to a list of countries which already includes China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France, Germany and Spain - for which special measures apply.

The advice also states that passengers may be asked to sign a document agreeing to self-isolate. It says that in "a small number of cases" foreign visitors have been placed in enforced quarantine if they do not comply."


My little island of Cyprus has had demonstrations as some of the UN designated crossing points were closed ..

Old news already!!! May be asked to self isolate???
This from Moscow times yesterday....

"— The 14 day self-isolation regime for people returning to Moscow from some of the worst-affected countries was extended. People entering the capital from China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, U.K, Norway and the U.S are required to stay inside for two weeks"

Quarantine is NOT a choice.
I probably will end up cancelling my trip to Russia in May

[LAman]

Old news already!!! May be asked to self isolate???
This from Moscow times yesterday....

"— The 14 day self-isolation regime for people returning to Moscow from some of the worst-affected countries was extended. People entering the capital from China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, U.K, Norway and the U.S are required to stay inside for two weeks"

Quarantine is NOT a choice.
I probably will end up cancelling my trip to Russia in May

Sorry, forgot to add the link in Moscow Times.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/07/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-march-6-a69117

Another interesting link.
http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[BillyB]

this is like an out of control fire that people are underestimating...

It's okay if people are underestimating as long as governments don't underestimate. People can continue to believe there's nothing to worry about, nothing to see here. Keep working.

your area may be "shutdown" by the end of this month...

In a matter of weeks Italy and South Korea went from a few infections and deaths to out of control. King County, WA has the symptoms for an explosion like they had but I'm ready for it. I've got cash. I'll approach a couple of soldiers, tell them I'm virus free, and try to bribe my way out so I can come live with you. But when one soldier yells out "It's freezing weather and a drop of sweat just fell from his face! He's got the zombie virus!!!" the other soldier with an itchy trigger finger blows my head off and I fall to the ground. As I raise my hand to signal for help, the soldier empties his clip of remaining 29 rounds into my raised hand and body. As I raise my other hand to signal for help, the rest of the platoon empties their clips into my body. My legs get up and run back home. I get on the computer and report to you guys they are not messing around with the quarantining of people, even the virus free kind like me.

In other news Hotel COVID-19 collapses.  43 out of 70 people have been rescued and local officials report no deaths unless Beijing gives them permission to do so.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/hotel-collapse-traps-70-eastern-china-154017056.html

My local government just bought a really cheap hotel to house the infected. It's the kind of dumpy hotel the local hookers take clients to.

[Trenchcoat]

I probably will end up cancelling my trip to Russia in May

One issue with going abroad may become that you go abroad but then can't get back, either the airline goes bust and/or they stop all flights back, etc.

[Gator]

Trump is ONLY concerned about HIS numbers
why the f%ck did you people vote for him?
you just dug your own graves by doing so....

While the world is supporting its health professionals to treat the infected and to prepare for many more, you and other Democrats are attempting to twist the story to make it political. 

The only US government fault I see is the limited  testing done so far (now being corrected).  Trump made some good decisions such as banning a month ago the entry of non-US citizens who had traveled in China.  The last thing we need is a President full of fear. 

[Gator]

this is like an out of control fire that people are underestimating...
and then it burns everything down

My Gawd!  The hysteria.

I am good friends with two MDs who are heads of ER operations for two hospitals, one a large government healthcare center.   One remarked that the hysterics over COVID-19 are greater today than in his early years when addressing the AIDS epidemic.   Every AIDS case was deemed fatal.  The role of HIV was not known.  Transmission was not understood.  And over 700,000 persons died in the US from AIDS.  And today people like krimster are freaking out.


What are my two ER friends doing?  They are totally emerged into preparing for the diagnosis and treatment of possibly much larger number of future patients.  Are they exhibiting concern?  No.  The number of deaths from COVID-19 will grow, yet in the end more of us will have died from the flu.

[krimster2]

i'm not selling fear...
i'm selling reality...
if you're not in the market for reality
then enjoy your denial...
it goes well with a little butter

a month from now, you'll see
if you have fear or no fear like me, it doesn't matter, the virus doesn't care...
I'm NOT AFRAID, hell I might even like the apocalypse before it kills me

Trump has done so much wrong about this, I'd spend an hour describing it...
he did too little, too late, and too wrong....

hillary's emails won't matter
Biden's son's emails won't matter either
meuller report won't matter
impeachment won't matter

for the simple reason that the world doesn't actually revolve around your great leader
but around a completely different axis
and it's very rapidly spinning out of control

all fingers for what the CDC has called "it's own catastrophe" point to some individual in particular
the one we call "dear Leader"....
who did to the CDC what he's done to every other part of the federal government....
made it less effective....
now YOU pay the price

you made your bed when you voted for him
now dear Trump voters, please go and go lay down in it and fall to sleep...
sleep.....yes...a deep sleep...
and perchance to dream....
and watch it slowly fade away....
for all eternity
s'long y'all!!
buh by!!!

[msmob]

  Trump made some good decisions such as banning a month ago the entry of non-US citizens who had traveled in China.  The last thing we need is a President full of fear.

Very 'wise'...The virus 'realises' it dare not infect an American?..

[Trenchcoat]

Looking on Google last night and came across an article, it was based on Chinese stats so can't be entirely trusted but they do at least admit that some have died out there that were not elderly. The risk did tend to rise withage and of course most deaths were among the elderly but even some people int the 0-30 age group had died, though of course very few as well as people in their 40s, 50, & 60s, etc. Tending to go up proportionately to age. Again as the figures are from China we can't really look to then for anything more than then telling us it is possible. China would be too unreliable to rely on them telling us how much the younger people may get it and die of it.

Italy is likey to be the first source of this although they have (had) a large elderly population so the figures might be about skewed compared to other countries. Germany is likely to be the next country where such data may be obtained from.

In Italy, 50 people died in one day yesterday! Which is pretty shocking in just one day showing how bad it can be and they are unlikely at the top of it as yet.

In today's reporting they tell us Italy's health service is on the brink of collapse being unable to cope with all the cases and lacking facilities. Lombardy region is now under complete lockdown, nobody allowed out or in, so it's getting pretty dire out there already for those trapped inside.

Here I'm guessing London is likely to be the first region that will go into lockdown as it has had the most cases so far and it's density of population mean it is likely the greatest risk, other large cities will likely  follow.

I am lucky as although I am not living in a cave in the mountains, I do live in areas where there is a smaller population outside of city areas. Whether they will get to lockdown status I don't know. I'm guessing once it has eventually spread to most of the population there will be little point in lockdowns and only the country as a whole will be until of course it has spread fully enough worldwide.

That's likely a way off yet so I'm glad I'm living in areas that will likely avoid the lockdowns in the main. Maybe by house might go up a lot in value as a result and property prices in London crash a lot

At times like this the best housing is probably right out in the sticks with a lot of space away from anyone, like remote cottages or on farms, etc.

[msmob]

Trench you live in up a ( formerly) semi-industrialised Welsh valley .. the first hot spots closed off in N.Italy were smaller communities ..  Still with all that toilet roll and hand sanitiser at home - and no visitors ...you'll be 'busier' on here..

Most people would realise that the democracy with the highest numbers  ( hence data even you and Billy can 'trust' ) is S.Korea

If there's an 'apocalypse' and less people still living ... WHY do you thing house prices would rise ... ?


As ever, no sign of  joined-up cognitive  activity ...

[krimster2]

everything but gold will crash through the floor by the end of the year....
whattabout  shorting the airlines?
my broker feels uneasy about doing stuff like this, he's what they call "ethical"
which is why I make the decisions sometimes...
I don't have this handicap, or even understand what it means...
massive market shorts it is!
this'll be great, assuming the counter party will still be there to pay off my bet at the end of the year

[Trenchcoat]

Trench you live in up a ( formerly) semi-industrialised Welsh valley .. the first hot spots closed off in N.Italy were smaller communities ..  Still with all that toilet roll and hand sanitiser at home - and no visitors ...you'll be 'busier' on here..

Most people would realise that the democracy with the highest numbers  ( hence data even you and Billy can 'trust' ) is S.Korea

If there's an 'apocalypse' and less people still living ... WHY do you thing house prices would rise ... ?


As ever, no sign of  joined-up cognitive  activity ...

All depends on how far it reaches before a vaccine is freely available, early estimates was a year to the vaccine though they seem to be hurting it as much as they can. Milan is the epicenter of Italy's Coronavirus, the rest got quarentined as it is in the same region.

Mobe you were wrong on Brexit and you will be wrong on this one

Prepare now Mobers so you aren't caught out. The smart money is on the smart people, unfortunately that doesn't include you.

[krimster2]

if the virus doesn’t start slowing down in the USA
then by the end of this month, we will be where Italy is now....

[msmob]

Mobe you were wrong on Brexit and you will be wrong on this one

1/ I WASN'T wrong on 'Brexit' - it's THE most stupid thing this country has done ... Project fear is becoming fact ...

2/ My missus' has managed to live in Thailand amongst Chinese tourists and I've flown to Georgia on a code share flight with loads of folk from n.Italy ... 

Prepare now Mobers so you aren't caught out. The smart money is on the smart people, unfortunately that doesn't include you.

'Smart people' don't post tosh about relationships and misogynistic viewpoints on women when they're never in one for long enough enough to post with a clue ..

I've noticed that ordering on-line for groceries ... the wait time was 1 day - it's nearly three, now,  in my area .... I guess folks are too frightened to go to the shops...   

[GenMish]

Old news already!!! May be asked to self isolate???
This from Moscow times yesterday....

"— The 14 day self-isolation regime for people returning to Moscow from some of the worst-affected countries was extended. People entering the capital from China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, U.K, Norway and the U.S are required to stay inside for two weeks"

Quarantine is NOT a choice.
I probably will end up cancelling my trip to Russia in May

I just flew home from Bali via Incheon (SK). Upon landing in Atlanta, I was expecting the CDC to do health screenings and suggest self isolation. Nope, CDC not in sight, and the customs people couldn't wait to wave us through quickly. And there were some Koreans on my flight coughing pretty hard, but they didn't have a temp, as our temps were taken before boarding.

I don't think anyone can really predict where this is going. Will it die out as the weather warms up like other flu epidemics? or will it be like the Spanish Flu that didn't take off till August-October when it mutated and started killing off people in their 20s-50s

I think the notable event of the week was Russia unable to make an agreement with the Sauds, and Saudi Arabia is going to flood the market with cheap oil

[krimster2]

"Incheon"????

Fred: I knew a guy wounded in the Incheon landing
Bob: Did he have scar?
Fred: No, he didn't smoke

I freakin love Incheon jokes!!!

but from what you're saying, we probably are still getting a lot of foreign travelers from infected zones
bringing the virus into the USA
but...
we don't have a single testing kit to find out
and it would just cost too much to check or quarantine people...
but never mind...
hey have you seen Hunter Biden's emails yet?

[BillyB]

Below are all 1st world nations with good health care systems, with a minimum of 150 infections reporting I trust. Numbers based off John Hopkins link below.

Country       Total Infections        Deaths        Total Recovered

South Korea         7041                       44                    135
Italy                    4636                      197                   532
Germany               686                         0                     17
France                   653                         9                     12
Japan                    420                          6                     46
Spain                     401                         5                     2
USA                       340                        14                    8
Switzerland            214                         1                      3
UK                         164                         2                     8

Total                    14,555                     278                  763

As you can see from this pool of 14,555 people, 1041 finished their fight and 278 died for a mortality rate of 26.7%. Imagine yourself as one of those 13K+ infected and life and death started to sink in. You won't be looking at the reported mortality rates. You will be looked at the death and recovery categories. For every three people who goes into the recovery category, one person goes into the death category. I don't know if those numbers will hold but those numbers are we are dealing with right now after throwing out the Chinese numbers which account for 80% of the weight when factoring mortality rates.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I did this exercise yesterday and I'll do it today to see what difference a day makes. I won't do it everyday but anybody can go to the John Hopkins to see the daily changes. A couple of things I notice is Germany doesn't like to report the death and recovery rates. Maybe they're slow and will report later. Also, deaths in South Korea went up and recoveries went down. They may have decided previous recoveries were recoveries from another illness, not the coronavirus. Here are the new tallies for 1st world nations with over 150 confirmed infections that I think are trustworthy, have high quality health care systems.


Country       Total Infections        Deaths        Total Recovered

South Korea         7314                       50                    118
Italy                    5883                      233                    589
Germany              1018                         0                     18
France                   949                         11                    12
Japan                    502                          6                     76
Spain                     613                         17                    30
USA                       466                        19                     8
Switzerland            332                         2                      3
UK                         273                         2                      18
Netherlands            265                         3                      0
Sweden                  203                         0                      0
Belgium                  169                         0                      1
Norway                   157                         0                      0

Total                    18,144                     343                  903

Yesterdays numbers were 14,555 people infected, 1041 finished their fight and 278 died for a mortality rate of 26.7%.

Todays numbers are 18,144 infected, 1246 finished their fight with the virus and 343 died for a mortality rate of 27.5%. The mortality rate went up because there was 55 dead to 140 recoveries reported for the day. Poor odds for the tens of thousands who are currently infected and will someday be placed in one of those two categories.

The good news is official reports will keep numbers low so we don't panic. They will use Chinese reports which account for 80% of the weight into the equation which brings mortality rate down. They will factor in all those infected(still swimming for their life) into the recovery category to bring mortality rates down but we know the truth is many of those infected who are not finished with the battle with the virus will be thrown into the dead category eventually. As more numbers come in, they won't be able to manipulate the death rate easily, especially if someday the pool of infected becomes smaller and the dead and recovery pool becomes bigger. Evidence of that is the early reports of a .1% mortality rate became 2% and now 3.4% is the lastest being claimed. As more reports come in, it'll be harder for them to manipulate and mortality rates will go up but you'll never get the truth. If you want the truth, stick to the numbers reliable nations are reporting. Figure nations with poor health care systems having higher rates of death which we are not seeing right now and will probably never see.

[krimster2]

William

the only numbers that matter for you are the USA infections
and your state infections
keep track of those two daily...

the most important number from these two locations, is the rate of increase
also check long term weather reports
the top of the virus's favorite temp is in the 50s F,
you're gonna have those temps there for the next few months
so it's gonna expand, between now and then
you HOPE it will slow down when the weather is warmer

if it doesn't then the USA will be where Italy is now in about 4 to 6 weeks
and things are gonna start to get serious
and there will be zoned quarantined areas
and the first level of public closures like schools, universities, etc

but careful, dear leader does NOT want you to panic
and up voting for Joe Biden, just because Biden set up the biggest government backed public health response to a virus EVER, still much bigger than Trump's
back in 2014 when there were less than a handful of ebola cases in the USA, and he setup a special task force in the executive branch for dealing with this
and Biden left this organization in place for Trump, who immediately shut it down
and did everything wrong at every turn

oh, and what about Hillary's emails now, you poor infected MFers
this is your cool-aid
don't worry...
this one drinks you...

[Trenchcoat]

1/ I WASN'T wrong on 'Brexit' - it's THE most stupid thing this country has done ... Project fear is becoming fact ...

2/ My missus' has managed to live in Thailand amongst Chinese tourists and I've flown to Georgia on a code share flight with loads of folk from n.Italy ... 


'Smart people' don't post tosh about relationships and misogynistic viewpoints on women when they're never in one for long enough enough to post with a clue ..

I've noticed that ordering on-line for groceries ... the wait time was 1 day - it's nearly three, now,  in my area .... I guess folks are too frightened to go to the shops...   

Rather you & SC than me to be jetting of to those parts, the risk you are both taking is pretty high.

Though I do think it is kind of funny when I say that you might get stuck out there and the next thing we no you are no longer in Cyprus but in the UK, lol. Still some affection for your old British passport in times of crisis hey Mobe


I also said that this virus may change the way we shop and it looks like some of the worried well have started already.

Tesco has just announced it will ration certain items to five per customer:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51790375

A bit silly as could just go to another store afterwards.

Though could end up with rationing being brought in for the whole country by the government, hooray! No fat girls

They will be in a world of pain if that happens!

[BillyB]

Italy has now reported a huge jump in numbers. They have 366 deaths to 622 recoveries. South Korea has 50 deaths to 118 recoveries. Those two trustworthy nations with large sample pools combine for 416 deaths to 740 recoveries which equal 36% mortality rate. For every 2 recoveries recorded, another person is recorded dead. I don't like the reports from those nations but it is what it is.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Nations, including allies, are getting angry at each other. Finger pointing is starting to happen. If any of you are thinking of coming to my house to steal my Top Ramen noodles and canned chili, I've got guns.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/governments-point-fingers-over-coronavirus-as-death-toll-mounts/ar-BB10QVhB?ocid=spartanntp

[krimster2]

a month from there will no longer be people in denial in the USA, but now there are...

imagine what will happen to the hospital ERs this winter...
now imagine you break your arm or have a heart attack or a car accident during this period...

in the USA, watch store shelves start to empty this week...

[Trenchcoat]

Wow Billy, that means a Mortality rate of about a third in Italy and around a half in South Korea. That looks to me like it's hitting far more people than originally thought.

Still of course we are talking hundreds in a population of millions but the more time this goes on the more people it will effect.

I'm guessing here is the UK we probably aren't more than a month behind Italy, similar in the US I'm guessing, yet more land and population so depending on where someone lives out there the risk may vary.

Up to the highest daily cases in the UK so far today. It's not looking good as cases are going up daily:

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-coronavirus-live-covid19-cases-death-toll-a4381406.html%3famp

[Boethius]

As of today, there are 7,313 cases of coronavirus reported in Korea (7.133 active), and 50 deaths.  So not even close to half.

In Italy, there are 7,375 reported cases (6,387 active), and 366 deaths.

I was speaking to an infectious disease expert yesterday at a function.  He told me all hospital physicians have been fitted with special masks.  Their masks are airtight, and part of the testing of the masks is to place a liquid on them.  The liquid, even its scent, should not penetrate the mask.  He told me the masks sold to the general public are useless, and people shouldn't waste their money buying them.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[krimster2]

sheeeet...
my Russian partner just bought an 18 wheeler truckload
of OTC home respiratory care products, Alleve, Nyquil, etc...
even asthma medications....
they’ll be on the way to our warehouse in a few days

he got em in Russia at a bargain price...
won’t even be able to buy them AT ANY price after next week in the USA...
or in Russia later this year...

we’ll wait until November to start sellin online with “only” a 1000% markup
ka ching baby!!
make it rain kapusta down here!

m'am for the low price of only $100 I can sell you some hope for your sick little girl...
but ya gotta act fast, before we completely run out of hope as well as medicine...
ok, m'am?
y'know what?
for $100 more, I'll throw in a digital thermometer. and 20 extra paracetamol tablets..
whadda ya say m'am...
great!

[BillyB]

imagine what will happen to the hospital ERs this winter...
now imagine you break your arm or have a heart attack or a car accident during this period...

Seattle's VA hospital called with a recorded message with info on where their coronavirus designated area will be located. I'm sure all hospitals in America are preparing and will have designated areas to test for the virus and quarantine people. Of course those with physical injuries will still be afraid to visit a hospital.

I understand you want to blame things on Trump but Trump is doing his job to not create panic with the truth. The media who is criticizing Trump for lying are also lying unknowingly putting out low numbers themselves. Media's numbers are higher than Trump's estimates but way lower than the truth. They don't truly understand how bad this virus is.

As of today, there are 7,313 cases of coronavirus reported in Korea (7.133 active), and 50 deaths.  So not even close to half.

In Italy, there are 7,375 reported cases (6,387 active), and 366 deaths.

Those are not mortality rates. The infected will someday be moved to the death or recovered categories. The death to recovered categories ratio are the categories to calculate mortality rate. Not everybody who is infected is done with their battle to tally final mortality rate but we have enough people who are finished with the battle to create a big enough sample size to see where this is going and currently in Italy and South Korea, 1 out of every 3 people who finished with a bout with virus is dead.

Even if a person's immunity system beats the virus, can they claim victory? Even if a person beats the virus, they can get it again and again and again because there is no cure. CDC says the average adult gets two to three colds a year. It doesn't feel like we get that much because the symptoms may not be noticeable but next time we get the cold it can be severe. COVID-19 is a cold virus on steroids but much more dangerous than the flu. A person may not experience any symptoms and beat it the first time they get it but next time they get it could be worse and kill them.

http://www.cdc.gov/features/rhinoviruses/index.html

If CDC estimates of how many colds we get per year are true, then people our age have experienced over 100 colds in our lifetimes and obviously beat them all since we are on this forum. If we get COVID-19 100 times in our life, we'd be dead before we get to 100. If COVID even has a 10% mortality rate and every person on earth gets it once, the first wave of the virus will kill 780 million people. The rest will survive and when the antibodies in those survivors disappear in a few months, they can acquire COVID-19 again, the same way we can acquire another cold again. Humanity can live with wave after wave of colds and flus since colds are harmless and there are vaccines for flus. We will be devastated if we have to live with wave after wave of COVID-19 unless a cure is found or it's eradicated from the human body. Governments are giving people hope they are racing to find a cure. They haven't found a cure for the common cold after 100 years of trying so I'm not optimistic. Containment through quarantine is our only hope to slow it down and hopefully stop the spread. If it gets out of our control, humanity will have to live with it forever.

Although this virus has been around a few months, around 10% of the world's population has experience a full or partial lockdown. Easily over a billion people's lives have been affected by this virus. Maybe school was cancelled, a concert was cancel, loss of work due to company shutting down and less orders for the company, canceled trips, self imposed quarantine or mandatory government quarantine are what many already experienced. THESE RECENT EVENTS BY GOVERNMENTS IN A SHORT TIME SHOULD TELL US SOMETHING ABOUT THE VIRUS. I don't think most people understand how dangerous this virus is and the magnitude of the situation but it's a good thing Trump, health organizations, and other governments continue to lie and downplay what is happening.