Members Poll on whether Russia will invade Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

So just to get a brief idea of how many members here think that Russia will invade Ukraine.

I personally think they will invade Ukraine with its present military build up within the next few months.

They reckon Putin won't be able to hold his forces there without it becoming economically burdensome by summertime so we'll say invasion by summertime if in any doubt.

From what I see and hear online a lot of Ukrainians while concerned think that Putin won't probably invade this time. They've heard it before but I think the population may have become complacent and not aware of the signs and danger this time around.

So I'm going to vote 'yes' Russia will invade Ukraine this time.

[2tallbill]

So just to get a brief idea of how many members here think that Russia will invade Ukraine.

In what time frame? In the next ten years? Before March 8th?

[Trenchcoat]

In what time frame? In the next ten years? Before March 8th?

They reckon Putin won't be able to hold his forces there without it becoming economically burdensome by summertime so we'll say invasion by summertime if in any doubt.

[Grumpy]

The question should be "Will Russia ever withdraw from Ukraine?"

Several members have in-laws in Crimea and would definitely like to see Russia gone.

[tfcrew]

Biden mentioned some scenario where the Russians perhaps would sorta-kinda more or less in a way might invade maybe....

http://www.cnn.com/2022/01/19/politics/russia-ukraine-joe-biden-news-conference/index.html

Of chief interest is and has been the Donbass/Lughansk region.

MOSCOW, Jan 20 (Reuters) - A group of Russian lawmakers have urged parliament to appeal to President Vladimir Putin to recognise two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent states.
Here's a look at what such a move might mean for the Ukraine crisis, in which Russia has deployed around 100,000 troops near its neighbour's border in preparation for what the United States says - and Moscow denies - could be an imminent invasion.
WHAT ARE THE BREAKAWAY REGIONS?
Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions - collectively known as the Donbass - broke away from Ukrainian government control in 2014 and proclaimed themselves independent "people's republics", so far unrecognised. Since then, Ukraine says about 15,000 people have been killed in fighting. Russia denies being a party to the conflict but has backed the separatists in numerous ways, including through covert military support, financial aid, supplies of COVID-19 vaccine and the issue of more than 600,000 Russian passports to residents. A Ukrainian defence ministry source said Kyiv estimated there were 35,000 separatist fighters and 2,000 Russian regular forces in Donbass, though Russia disputes this. read more

http://www.reuters.com/world/europe/might-russia-recognise-independence-breakaway-east-ukraine-regions-2022-01-20/

[Trenchcoat]

Biden mentioned some scenario where the Russians perhaps would sorta-kinda more or less in a way might invade maybe....

http://www.cnn.com/2022/01/19/politics/russia-ukraine-joe-biden-news-conference/index.html

Of chief interest is and has been the Donbass/Lughansk region.http://www.reuters.com/world/europe/might-russia-recognise-independence-breakaway-east-ukraine-regions-2022-01-20/

My guess is that Bisen doesn't have a clear idea and is just speculating. I reckon the opposite that they will go all the way and take the lot. Taking just a little they will still gain the wrath of the west all the same, they may suffer further attacks from Ukraine whether militarily or con
covertly/terrorist in the future from whatever would be left of Ukraine. If there is no state of Ukraine to give anything back to they silence a lot of problems potentially speaking. I think it's in Putin's/Russia's nature to take all. They've gone to all the bother of assembling an army, risk of losses to their army that would likely be similar for partial or full invasion so to my mind makes only logical sense to invade the lot, keep NATO out of the lot for sure. Guess we'll find out for certain soon I'm guessing.

[Muzh]

Putin will either have Ukraine or he will trade with Europe, but not both.

[Faux Pas]

Putin will either have Ukraine or he will trade with Europe, but not both.

Says who? Consider this, perhaps Putin doesn't want Ukraine? If he had, he could have taken it in 2014 when he literally walked away with Crimea. He didn't want it then and likely doesn't want it now. Possibly something else at play. The still active sanctions and color revolution in Ukraine and Russia from the Obama admin has had no effect. It is the army of Rothchild now doing all of the sabre rattling. Who's really warmongering here?

[Jumper1]

Troops have been on the border for 7 years.
Same old same old.
Build up?
Is there an actual buildup ,or is it exchange of troops and personal that were already present in the region for years.

They have had a lot of time to invade if the wanted to.They have had a lot of time to gain whatever support within the population they might have in various regions.
They have had a lot of time manipulating the government of ukraine since its independence.
(Not blaming them,just saying we all know it is to remain that way)

There just  seems little advantage to invade a country you already control and benefit from.
There certainly would be costs on several fronts.
If your hand is freely in a cookie jar, it's not like you need to break it to get to the cookies.

There was a distinct advantage to taking Crimea and almost zero meaningful repercussions.
So why not? As hillary would say,*what's it matter now?*

[Boethius]

No, there's been a significant troop build up on the Ukrainain border.

[BC]

[Jumper1]

No, there's been a significant troop build up on the Ukrainain border.

I keep hearing our media say that.

It could be true,it could be as true as other complete fabrications they have indulged in.

Since there are conflicting reports and various definitions of significant* ,I'm not convinced.

I certainly consider it  is possible,nor would it be the first time.

I know I dont have Russian troop counts in the area  from.2014 or from 2022.


I see I big advantage to what we set up as a perfect excuse  for them to flex in 2014.

I dont see the overall positives  to them.invading now,but certainly there are some.

I see far more positives in them flexing by rearranging troops (or increasing) or just poking the media at this time.

I certainly hope they do not invade.

However I'd they do , I think the country will divide.

[Boethius]

Satellites prove the Russians have massed troops along Ukraine's border. 

[rwd123]

The Russian government does not want to invade Ukraine. It appears the West (US/UK etc.) are either setting up a provocation or false flag event. The nature of military armaments being provided/offered to Ukraine is provocative.

The Russian government will invade if it believes its security is at risk by not taking action. It will ultimately prevail in any conventional conflict and I don't believe it wants to occupy Ukraine. Poland discovered in war games that it would be taken over in a matter of days if Russia invaded, it would be a similar story for Ukraine.

If it does happens those in Europe can look forward to an economic depression which will spread internationally due to globalisation. WW3 has already started it just hasn't been declared.

[tfcrew]

The Russian government does not want to invade Ukraine. It appears the West (US/UK etc.) are either setting up a provocation or false flag event. The nature of military armaments being provided/offered to Ukraine is provocative.

It appears the West globalists.... 
http://www.npr.org/2022/02/07/1078929878/what-germany-france-and-britain-are-doing-to-deter-a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine
NPR=globalists tried and true.

[fathertime]

The Russian government does not want to invade Ukraine. It appears the West (US/UK etc.) are either setting up a provocation or false flag event. The nature of military armaments being provided/offered to Ukraine is provocative.

The Russian government will invade if it believes its security is at risk by not taking action. It will ultimately prevail in any conventional conflict and I don't believe it wants to occupy Ukraine. Poland discovered in war games that it would be taken over in a matter of days if Russia invaded, it would be a similar story for Ukraine.

If it does happens those in Europe can look forward to an economic depression which will spread internationally due to globalisation. WW3 has already started it just hasn't been declared.

From what I can see,  (The US) is doing everything we can to provoke Russia.   Of course, it would be a different story if we had any real blood in the scenario.   Currently mostly Ukrainians would be paying the price. 

Fathertime! 

[Jumper1]

Satellites prove the Russians have massed troops along Ukraine's border.

Possibly.
More or less than 2014?

I don't have any satellites.
I have to go off what people with satellites choose to show or say.

Again, I do not doubt there are troops there,there have been troops there fur 7 years,there have been troops there before many times.

I do question if it's a significant difference than in 2014 and the years between.

If* Putin chooses that path:

1 what does he gain short term?
What does he lose?
2. What dies he gain long term?
What does he lose?

3. What would europe or nato actively  do against a full scale invasion of Ukraine?
What would the USA bound into nato do?


My guess?  They will allow wave their hands about saying the sky is falling ,condemn the actions, aid ukraine in  military supplies, press sanctions on Russia.
And fluster around a lot.
Quite a bit more than Crimea but it would subside and then  we will be talking them amassing troops on the  Belarus  border,then Poland.

Ukraine's in a poor position ,they had to hug the bear all along ,while trying to lean west.
Never a good situation.

[Chelseaboy]

The Russian government does not want to invade Ukraine. It appears the West (US/UK etc.) are either setting up a provocation or false flag event. The nature of military armaments being provided/offered to Ukraine is provocative.

The Russian government will invade if it believes its security is at risk by not taking action. It will ultimately prevail in any conventional conflict and I don't believe it wants to occupy Ukraine. Poland discovered in war games that it would be taken over in a matter of days if Russia invaded, it would be a similar story for Ukraine.

If it does happens those in Europe can look forward to an economic depression which will spread internationally due to globalisation. WW3 has already started it just hasn't been declared.

Do you not think Russia amassing 130,000 troops on Ukraine's border...along with erecting field hospitals for those troops....is being "provocative" ?


The nature of the military armaments being given to Ukraine are defensive,


The 2000 anti-tank missiles the UK gave to Ukraine are short-range and can only be used if Russian Tanks roll into Ukraine...which would mean Russia has errrr invaded Ukraine.


So,not provocative military armaments at all...unless you think Ukraine is going to invade Russia ?


I live in a country where Russia regularly sends long-range Bombers close to our air-space,which means we have to keep sending-up our fighter jets to escort them away when they're heading toward our air-space.
We cannot do the same to Russia because we don't have long-range Bombers...which mad Vlad is well-aware of.


This is the monster who took Crimea from Ukraine,directly leading to the deaths of 14,000 people in the Donbas region of Ukraine and the shooting down of a passenger plane killing another 298 people.


Putin apologists making excuses for a provocative, bullying tyrant,whom many Russians consider to be a Dictator, need to take a long hard look at themselves.


No doubt they'd have been in the Hitler appeasement camp too.


Are you going to be fighting for your adopted country if Russia invades,as many Ukrainian civilians are training to do..or will you hug the Russian invaders like a good little pro-Russian separatist whilst cursing the evil West as your fellow adopted countrymen/women are being slaughtered by.....Russians ?

[John Gaunt]

Do you not think Russia amassing 130,000 troops on Ukraine's border...along with erecting field hospitals for those troops....is being "provocative" ?


The nature of the military armaments being given to Ukraine are defensive,


The 2000 anti-tank missiles the UK gave to Ukraine are short-range and can only be used if Russian Tanks roll into Ukraine...which would mean Russia has errrr invaded Ukraine.


So,not provocative military armaments at all...unless you think Ukraine is going to invade Russia ?


I live in a country where Russia regularly sends long-range Bombers close to our air-space,which means we have to keep sending-up our fighter jets to escort them away when they're heading toward our air-space.
We cannot do the same to Russia because we don't have long-range Bombers...which mad Vlad is well-aware of.


This is the monster who took Crimea from Ukraine,directly leading to the deaths of 14,000 people in the Donbas region of Ukraine and the shooting down of a passenger plane killing another 298 people.


Putin apologists making excuses for a provocative, bullying tyrant,whom many Russians consider to be a Dictator, need to take a long hard look at themselves.


No doubt they'd have been in the Hitler appeasement camp too.


Are you going to be fighting for your adopted country if Russia invades,as many Ukrainian civilians are training to do..or will you hug the Russian invaders like a good little pro-Russian separatist whilst cursing the evil West as your fellow adopted countrymen/women are being slaughtered by.....Russians ?

Good post CB

[Muzh]

Says who? Consider this, perhaps Putin doesn't want Ukraine? If he had, he could have taken it in 2014 when he literally walked away with Crimea. He didn't want it then and likely doesn't want it now. Possibly something else at play. The still active sanctions and color revolution in Ukraine and Russia from the Obama admin has had no effect. It is the army of Rothchild now doing all of the sabre rattling. Who's really warmongering here?

Fascinating.

[rwd123]

blah blah blah

You didn't provide any indication how it would be beneficial for the Russian Federation to invade Ukraine. That's because there isn't any benefit (other than for security considerations).

You do realise that it is official Ukraine government policy to take Crimea by force if it deems appropriate, and if it becomes at NATO member it would compel NATO to support Ukraine? I don't believe Russia is seeking a war with NATO.

[Chelseaboy]

 NATO has made it clear that Ukraine won't be allowed to join them whilst Russian forces continue to occupy Crimea and fighting continues in the Donbas region of Ukraine,so your points concerning NATO are irrelevant.


I notice you didn't answer my question about whether Russia amassing 130,000 troops on the Ukrainian border is provocative or not.


Do you think Ukraine plans to invade Russia and if you don't why are there 130,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border ?

[GQBlues]

When pressed for proof on the intelligence being trumpeted about regarding Russia's inevitable invasion of Ukraine, Nat. Security adviser Jake Sullivan candidly gave it all out....

Well, OK, as much detail as he was willing to share:

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/02/13/tapper-presses-jake-sullivan-on-russia-ukraine-intel-skepticism-tapper-sotu-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/this-week-in-politics/

Which hindered somewhere between BS and croc-a-doodle-doo. Got Tonkin?

Prompting poor ol' Zelensky to exclaim, "..the best friend of our enemies is panic in our country! And all this information is just provoking panic and can't help us!"

Maybe Ukrainians are right. The cursory sign for a Russian invasion is when Xi orders Chinese personnel/nationals to leave Ukraine.

Jake Sullivan: "When Russia attacks....we will defend NATO territories!!" Did I miss a the day when Ukraine became a 'NATO territory?'

[BC]

Was discussing the situation with a UA guy I work with daily. Asked what Putin's motivations were to cause disruption in UA.

[tfcrew]

Next poll--whether China will invade Taiwan 

[Boethius]

Was discussing the situation with a UA guy I work with daily. Asked what Putin's motivations were to cause disruption in UA.

But I don't think Ukrainians do live better than Russians, at least, not economically.  Ukrainians are moving to Russia to work, not vice versa.


I do think Ukraine is much freer than Russia.

[Muzh]

Maybe we should be asking Rinat Akhmetov, Victor Pinchuk, Igor Abramovich,  senior figure in a pro-Russian party called “Opposition Platform — for Life”, Andrei Stavnitser, Boris Kolesnikov, Vadim Nesterenko, Vadym Novinsky, Vadym Stolar, and Vasyl Khmelnytsky why are they suddenly "vacationing" away from the motherland.
[/size]
[/size]Ask yourselves, what do they have in common?

[BC]

But I don't think Ukrainians do live better than Russians, at least, not economically.  Ukrainians are moving to Russia to work, not vice versa.

I do think Ukraine is much freer than Russia.

Boethius,

not necessarily written in the present tense.  More like "What happens if..." and the aspirations of Ukraine to be more aligned with EU/NATO etc.

By destabilizing the country, RU helps prevent this from happening.

[GQBlues]

Boethius,

not necessarily written in the present tense.  More like "What happens if..." and the aspirations of Ukraine to be more aligned with EU/NATO etc.

By destabilizing the country, RU helps prevent this from happening.

You think maybe Ukraine's own politicians had pretty much 'destabilized' the country pretty well already?

I mean, after all, I seriously doubt any 'stable' nation would be keen to appoint the likes of Hunter Biden to chair their nation's energy department. What do you think? (Well OK, considering Shroeder is actually making a living doing just that, let's exempt Germany on that list. Heheh)..

Hell, every now and then I see those TV ads asking for monthly contribution to help feed those starving, near-frozen and lonely, blanket-clad Ukrainian Jewish babushkas. Breaks my heart every time I see that ad, too.

[Boethius]

Hunter Biden wasn't "chair(ing) the nation's energy department".  He sat on the board a a Cypriot registered natural gas company operating in Ukraine. 

[GQBlues]

Burisma, while registered in Cyprus, is a natural gas producer owned by a Ukrainian Mykola Zlochevsky, based in Kyiv, operating IN Ukraine.

 

[Boethius]

Yes, and that is why I posted that it is a Cypriot registered company operating in Ukraine.


The point is that Burisma was not aligned with the Ukrainian government.  In fact, Mykola Zlochevesky was under investigation at the time Hunter Biden was appointed to Burisma's board.  Zlochevsky, aligned with Yanukovych, was/is corrupt, and did issue government licences to companies he controlled, but that ended in 2012, before Biden was named to the board.

[ML]

So the majority of those who answered were wrong.

[Jumper1]

Yes sir, I was absolutely wrong.
I actually felt Puti was playing his usual.chess amoungst other world leaders playing checkers.
I did not think he would invade as I thought him clever amd manipulative enough to get.his way with bluffs.
I din't see and still don't see,  I winning scenario for Russia in a global economy with this move regardless how smoothly or not so we it could have gone.
This action was  unlikely to be positive long-term and he typically is more calculating.

[Boethius]

I voted yes, although honestly, I didn't think he would invade and posted that in the past.  Mostly, I believed that because I didn't see what he would want with Ukraine.

[Chelseaboy]

I voted yes..but the longer it went on without an invasion the less likely i thought it would happen.

[BC]

So the majority of those who answered were wrong.

Indeed.  I was wrong as well.

Guess I had too much hope Putin would remain somewhat reasonable with his demands.

[Patagonie]

When I shot my video on the 22nd of January my mind was already clear,
 

[Trenchcoat]

Interesting to note how many were right in this poll and how many were wrong, should have had members names to put to it I think. Me being one of those that were right of course

[Grumpy]

Next poll--whether China will invade Taiwan 

Observing the current situation in Ukraine, and the world's reaction,  China might well forget about Taiwan. It would be a much better to play the hero and liberate their fellow Asians in Siberia from the imperialists in Moscow. (Kick Putin in the arse while his pants are down!) 

[2tallbill]

So the majority of those who answered were wrong.

I thought/hoped that it wouldn't happen. I was wrong

[ML]

From what I gather . . . myself (ML), Boe, Chelseaboy, and Trench were 4 of the 6 who voted yes.

[Chelseaboy]

The Russian government does not want to invade Ukraine. It appears the West (US/UK etc.) are either setting up a provocation or false flag event. The nature of military armaments being provided/offered to Ukraine is provocative.

The Russian government will invade if it believes its security is at risk by not taking action. It will ultimately prevail in any conventional conflict and I don't believe it wants to occupy Ukraine. Poland discovered in war games that it would be taken over in a matter of days if Russia invaded, it would be a similar story for Ukraine.

If it does happens those in Europe can look forward to an economic depression which will spread internationally due to globalisation. WW3 has already started it just hasn't been declared.

This post of yours has worn well hasn't it ?


So much for Ukraine being taken over in a matter of days eh ?


Clearly you're totally clueless.

[Chelseaboy]

Poland discovered in war games that it would be taken over in a matter of days if Russia invaded, it would be a similar story for Ukraine

Reality check.


It's now day 24 of the war .


Oh..and Ukraine claim to have just killed another Russian  General ..Lieutenant -General Andrei Mordvichen ..Commander of the 8th General Army...that would make five Russian Generals killed.


Any more pearls of wisdom Putin fanboy  ?

[ML]

Oh..and Ukraine claim to have just killed another Russian  General ..Lieutenant -General Andrei Mordvichen ..Commander of the 8th General Army...that would make five Russian Generals killed.

WOW . . . any military historians here know if this is unprecedented ?

[ML]

A quick google search found:

Maj Gen Harold Greene, killed by an Afghan soldier in an insider attack.

Lt Gen Timothy Maude was killed when a passenger plane crashed into the Pentagon on 9/11.

Maj Gen John Albert B Dillard Jr was killed during the Vietnam War when his helicopter was shot down in 1970.

Major Gen Keith Lincoln Ware killed in Vietnam in 1968.

Lieutenant General Walton Walker.  Killed December 23, 1950 when his command jeep collided with a civilian truck near Uijeongbu as he inspected positions north of Seoul.

Major General Bryant E. Moore.  Died of a heart attack in Korea on February 24, 1951, after his helicopter had crashed into the Han River during Operation Killer.

Lt Gen Simon Bolivar Buckner Jr was killed in the final days of the Battle for Okinawa during World War Two.

[LAman]

WOW . . . any military historians here know if this is unprecedented ?

Depends on how far you wanted to go back.
I believe at least a dozen US generals were killed during Vietnam war.
Civil War it was ~124 generals.