Who will win the War, Russia or Ukraine?

[Trenchcoat]

So with both sides ending up perhaps looking equally matched, with sanctions on Russia and military equipment en-route to Ukraine, what side is going to win this war, Russia or Ukraine?

Also would be interested to hear how long members think the two sides might be at war?

[ML]

I, like many others, thought Ukraine would be overrun in 2-3 days.

But now, I think Ukraine will win this war.

Their win won't be something like Russia surrenders, of course, but Ukraine will win in the sense that they will not be completely taken over.

If the additional weapons and planes that are supposed to be coming to Ukraine get there fast enough, Ukraine can inflict even more casualties on the Russian invaders.

As the Russian people learn about those mounting casualties and the pain of the sanctions start hurting, I think there might be a general revolt in Russia or enough of a threat of such that Putin might decide to pull back.

So the critical variable is time.

Can Ukrainian military hold on long enough for new weapons to arrive and for sanctions to bite?

[cameraguymn]

I wouldn't think the Ukrainians will last another week. I've been there 4 times last year and nearly everyone has been friendly. I contrast those memories of young people, waiters, taxi drivers, hotel staff with what I know is happening in their cities now. I am deeply saddened to see the devastation of war on the Ukrainian people.

I was just in Kharkiv - in beautiful Gorky Park a few months ago and now buildings are rubble.

In the end maybe the world and democracy wins as common Russian folks revolt, the Russian oligarchs get fed up with losing billions and there is a real revolution against Putin.

[tfcrew]

In the end maybe the world and democracy wins as common Russian folks revolt, the Russian oligarchs get fed up with losing billions and there is a real revolution against Putin.

Also..as in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, invaded people have the incentive to defend their homeland... just as the Russians themselves defended against the Nazis & against Napoleon. As in all wars, everybody loses.

[BC]

Wars cannot be won nowadays.  They only continue in different form, at different times and different places.

At best, one siide or the other stands down, but only temporarily.

[Trenchcoat]

I've got to say I'm on the fence in this one hence why I haven't voted in the poll I've started. At the moment the main bulk of heavy armour has just reached outside of Kiev. In the south heavy Armour has now reached Kherson and the city is pretty much surrounded.

Do has it been a case that the Russians main heavy armour has just been moving slowly and now it is there that cities will start to crumble more quickly?

My guess is that the distance from the border to Kiev and the Crimean border to Kherson is about the same. So perhaps this is where it really all begins for the Russians and ends for the Ukrainians.

I think that the Russians have to now start making real gains like taking Kiev or they will truely get bogged down in this war and their chances of winning start receding. I think if they don't start making real gains in the next few  days then I will vote that Ukraine will most likely win out in the end by which I mean the Russians will eventually agree to a cease fire and terms and will leave Ukraine.

I am still not quite convinced that Russia has used anywhere near their full fire power in the air. I still wonder if Russia is trying to take Ukraine mostly intact at the expense of not hammering Ukraine's forces on the ground into oblivion through carpeting them with many hundreds of missiles in one go.

[Trenchcoat]

Russian military convoy now starting to mass outside of Kyiv.

http://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-kharkiv-kyiv-kherson-convoys/31729628.html

My guess is that the armour was too heavy to go out into the terrain so they all had to use the roads and that created a long tailback of armoured vehicles. All due to the ground not hardening sufficiently to frost and Putin being impatient and not wanting to wait another year to see if the ground would be more frozen next year, and people complain about global warming lol.

So not at all an ideal situation for Russia, it's no doubt why it's taking them way longer. My guess is that they would now be best surrounding the city and either blockading the city or all going in as one en-masse. My guess is that it's going to take another day or so for this to happen, for the back of the column to get to Kiev.

Worst thing Russia could do is probably send their army in bit by bit and get it destroyed bit by bit. Possibly Russia may try to soften up the Ukrainian military in the meantime with missiles.

Today Ukrainian pilots have collected war planes from Poland and are flying them to Ukraine to use.

[ML]

Today Ukrainian pilots have collected war planes from Poland and are flying them to Ukraine to use.

Last I saw, this deal had fallen through.

[Trenchcoat]

Last I saw, this deal had fallen through.

Yeah looks like you're right ML, if there ever was a deal it has fallen through:

http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

Possibly those countries started to count the cost of sending weapons and I think more will do in the coming days and weapons being sent could slow a lot. Countries are soon going to be counting the cost of sending weapons which they will either have to pay to replace or be left with a shirt fall themselves. After the virus many countries will lack the budget to go overboard in sending weapons I think. So once the initial knee jerk reaction calms down I think a lot less weapon sending will likely actually take place.

My guess is that if Ukraine has any fighter planes left and runways to launch them on they may have either run out of fighter plane missiles or maybe even fuel. That they are not attacking that Russian Armoured column out in the open all nicely lined up and potentially vulnerable is probably telling I think.

With no supply of further planes on the way I am going to vote o the Russians winning this war. Ukrainians may have anti-tank missiles but something tells me that once the main bulk of Russian tanks reach Kyiv they will likely encircle Kyiv and then like Maruipol bombard Kyiv. Mariupol is now surrounded and being bombarded from both sides as the Russian forces try to link up. I can see Russian forces taking Mariupol and once they do they will then start to move in towards central Ukraine getting behind the back of the Ukrainian army in the east of Ukraine. That and they will take Kherson and continue along to Odessa.

I think Russia know that once they have Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, Nikolaev, Odessa in their grasp they have all of the main strategic cities in Ukraine. That just leaves Central and Western Ukraine, basically Dnipro, Lviv, etc. There not the biggest concern and will come in time. Odds are after the above six listed cities are conquered Ukraine will see that the game us up and Pro-Russian Ukrainians will come forward to 'negotiate' the new Ukraine with the Russians.

[Boethius]

Russia will win short term, but that's all it will be, a decade, maybe two. 

[fathertime]

So with both sides ending up perhaps looking equally matched, with sanctions on Russia and military equipment en-route to Ukraine, what side is going to win this war, Russia or Ukraine?

Also would be interested to hear how long members think the two sides might be at war?

In the short term Russia wins
In the medium term the west wins (I think)
In the longer term Russia wins. (I think)

In the end, despite all the losses it takes now, Russia may wind up controlling all of Ukraine's resources.  Those resources will be needed by the world around.  Europe may try to refrain from buying them for a while, but other nations won't.  If Russia is starting to think like China with very long timelines, they seem to have performed a large resource grab.  Some of this will depend on how Ukrainians behave under Russia.  A lot of them are leaving, which may not be bad from Russia's standpoint.  Many are staying behind and fighting and will be killed in battle.
Some Ukrainians may be ok with Russia's takeover, others may grow to like it, others will hate it.  If Russia winds up raising the lives of Ukrainians that remain, that can make a difference in opinion.  If they raise the lifestyle too much, Trenchcoat will have to find new hunting grounds. 

Fathertime!   

[Jumper1]

Russia will win short term, but that's all it will be, a decade, maybe two.

This,and it's a horrible situation for those there.

also it’s economy will unlikely recover in their lifetimes.

[BC]

My thoughts

Russia's plan is to use brute force until they achieve control of the Dnipro river, all lands east, and all major cities between Kyiv and Odesa, essentially neutering and land locking Ukraine, making the remaining western part totally dependent on western nations for costly support of a population numbering many millions.  Housing, food, and keeping an unstable and non-producing economy afloat.  There will be continued UA resistance actions for some time to come.  RU declares this area their buffer zone and militarizes the entire area as a bargaining chip for future negotiations.

In the meantime, troubles will spill over into Russia, with a significant percentage not supporting Putin's action.  Some may take destructive action within RU. 

China will feed and provide technology to Russia in exchange for energy.

Only the Russian people can change what is happening.

[Admin]

In the short term Russia wins
In the medium term the west wins (I think)
In the longer term Russia wins. (I think)

In the end, despite all the losses it takes now, Russia may wind up controlling all of Ukraine's resources.  Those resources will be needed by the world around.  Europe may try to refrain from buying them for a while, but other nations won't.  If Russia is starting to think like China with very long timelines, they seem to have performed a large resource grab.  Some of this will depend on how Ukrainians behave under Russia.  A lot of them are leaving, which may not be bad from Russia's standpoint.  Many are staying behind and fighting and will be killed in battle. Some Ukrainians may be ok with Russia's takeover, others may grow to like it, others will hate it.  If Russia winds up raising the lives of Ukrainians that remain, that can make a difference in opinion.  If they raise the lifestyle too much, Trenchcoat will have to find new hunting grounds. 

Fathertime!   

Your lack of knowledge of Ukrainian history and direct experience in Ukraine becomes obvious.

[Jumper1]

In the short term Russia wins
In the medium term the west wins (I think)
In the longer term Russia wins. (I think)

In the end, despite all the losses it takes now, Russia may wind up controlling all of Ukraine's resources.  Those resources will be needed by the world around.  Europe may try to refrain from buying them for a while, but other nations won't.  If Russia is starting to think like China with very long timelines, they seem to have performed a large resource grab.  Some of this will depend on how Ukrainians behave under Russia.  A lot of them are leaving, which may not be bad from Russia's standpoint.  Many are staying behind and fighting and will be killed in battle.
Some Ukrainians may be ok with Russia's takeover, others may grow to like it, others will hate it.  If Russia winds up raising the lives of Ukrainians that remain, that can make a difference in opinion.  If they raise the lifestyle too much, Trenchcoat will have to find new hunting grounds. 

Fathertime!   

This is one possibility.

Knowing Ukrainians I feel it's an unlikely one.

The major Ukrainian players greed might have them copitulate .in fact that is very  very likely

The standing Ukrainian military might have to,simply by being overwhelmed, and that's likely.

But a countries main resistence overall is it's citizens.always.
Ukrainians are patriotic  ,and um well slavs.. huge resolve and hardened inner strenght, unforgiving,defiant,spiteful and if feeling they are  wronged or right,unlikely to ever deviate. They will hold a deep seated  grudge for generations.

You'd think Putin would understand this
much  better, and perhaps he does and doesn't care about his own peoples future  losses.

If he found afganistan tough,which it is,  then I think this will be much  more difficult to hold long term.

militant  factions this creates wont be adverse to scorched earth tactics or play by rules.
Guerilla warfare is almost impossible to
deal with effectively long term. Especially if well funded.

The west will continue to poor money in.
This money will be a huge headache in both the level.of corruption and who and what can be bought and gained from.russians there trying* to govern ,as they are entirely corrupt as well.if in positions of leadership
Weapons will be plentiful.

Ukraine has a huge border. A sea etc.

Russia will be required to have a huge military presence long term and eventually realize the.prize isnt  worth the cost.

Meanwhile ukraine will be decimated and truly a third world country.

This travesty is far more reaching and long term.
This will have lasting effects in world politics for decades.

I feel.this has indeed set the stage for a  possible large scale wars in the.future as this wont end with any of the.resolutions agreed upon this year.

Ukraine which many in the west couldn't locate on a map,will be in the news for decades now.sadly not in a good way

[Steamer]

Russia will win short term, but that's all it will be, a decade, maybe two.

I don't think it will be that long. As soon as Russia withdraws Ukraine will start shelling Donetsk and start taking pot shots at the Russian speakers until Russia feels obligated to return.

[Boethius]

Talk to people in Luhansk.  They were never shelled until this week. 

Any action by Ukraine was defensive. 

You obviously have not been to Ukraine.  Before this particular Russian invasion, if you walked the streets of Kyiv, the language all around you was predominantly Russian.  My SIL communicates with us in Russian, not Ukrainian (and not surzhik, which she doesn't know).  I would hazard a guess that the Ukrainian born wives of most men here speak Russian, not Ukrainian, as their daily language, or did until February 22. 

Russian language was never banned.  But what did happen was Ukraine declared the Ukrainian language the official language of Ukraine.  Russian had, and would always have, minority language status (meaning, minority language rights), because Ukraine adhered to EU laws on this issue. 

So, if you're going to make predictions, please at least base them on fact.

[Trenchcoat]

I think the real elephant in the room that has received very little attention in all of this is that of Ukrainian Military casualties. The Ukrainians don't seem to want to talk about it, they can apparently tot up the troop casualties of Russia but seem unable to do it with their own Ukrainian troops. Russia today came out with their own figures for its own troop casualties which were well below the Ukrainian figures for Russian troop casualties. So either Ukraine is inflating Russian troop casualties to make it look like Ukraine is doing favourably or Russia is lying.

I think the fact that Ukraine hasn't come out with any even rough idea of troop casualties could well be an attempt to keep bad news from the population and the outside world they are asking for help. After all if Ukrainian troop losses were high the picture Ukraine paints of Ukraine doing well against the Russians and hence much admiration around the world wouldn't look so impressive. I doubt very much that troop losses have been so minimal they are hardly worth stating. My thoughts is that Ukrainian troop losses are likely high possibly very high. They've thrown a lot of troops into protecting their cities and ultimately that may prove a problem for them. As each city becomes surrounded in turn, Ukrainian troops are left in a fight to the end type of situation until they are more or less annilalated. With that may entail a lot of devastation to each city where that goes on of course, but it may result in a lot of Ukrainian troops being placed into a situation where they will be wiped out in order for Russia to conquer the city.

[fathertime]

.  Some of this will depend on how Ukrainians behave under Russia.  A lot of them are leaving, which may not be bad from Russia's standpoint.  Many are staying behind and fighting and will be killed in battle.
Some Ukrainians may be ok with Russia's takeover, others may grow to like it, others will hate it.  If Russia winds up raising the lives of Ukrainians that remain, that can make a difference in opinion. 
Fathertime!   

Your lack of knowledge of Ukrainian history and direct experience in Ukraine becomes obvious.

Hola! 
You are right that I have little first-hand experience with the general populace of Ukrainians, aside from one little trip 17 years ago.  That said, is there something in particular that you think is off base in what I mentioned. 

Fathertime!   

[GQBlues]

I don't think it will be that long. As soon as Russia withdraws Ukraine will start shelling Donetsk and start taking pot shots at the Russian speakers until Russia feels obligated to return.

According to this media, France 24:


http://www.france24.com/en/20180920-ukraine-region-ban-russian-culture-sparks-controversy

Throw caution to the wind of its journalistic authenticity and integrity.

[Boethius]

I have no idea what you're trying to say.  Nevertheless, does "freedom fries" ring a bell?

[Trenchcoat]

A few reports around now that Viktor Yanukovych is most likely to be installed as President of Ukraine no doubt once Kyiv is conquered:

http://www.indiatoday.in/world/russia-ukraine-war/story/who-is-viktor-yanukovych-kremlin-s-pick-for-ukraine-president-after-war-1919847-2022-03-02

So like I said he could well be the likely choice. He has some legitimacy as was elected democratically as President of Ukraine so can be argued to have been illegally ousted. That would in theory lend a degree of legitimacy to him being installed and to a lesser extent Russia 's invasion. So Putin would probably see that as a good play as he can argue the toss without the argument being entirely without foundation.

So what would a new Yanukovych/new Ukrainian look like, similar to the old pre-2014 situation but with some lost territory perhaps? A little more under the thumb of the Russians? Quite possibly, but still a separate state in theory?

[Jumper1]

I don't think it will be that long. As soon as Russia withdraws Ukraine will start shelling Donetsk and start taking pot shots at the Russian speakers until Russia feels obligated to return.

Maybe AFTER this invasion,  donbass  and crimea are  the only regions speaking Russian?.

However it would be misguided to NOT (edited as my phone auto corrected )
think russian was spoken by the bulk.of Ukrainian people as a daily language.
You do know the entire black sea coastal.cities do so from west to east?  Most of the major central.cities along the dnepro including dnepropetrovsk and Kyiv.
The. Kharkov the old capitil.

Much shorter list of where Ukrainian was previously the daily language.
As beo noted  it became the officisl.language for legal documents and government administrative work.


My wifes daily language was indeed russian,her home city much closer to.moldovan border than  to donestk.

[Jumper1]

A few reports around now that Viktor Yanukovych is most likely to be installed as President of Ukraine no doubt once Kyiv is conquered:

http://www.indiatoday.in/world/russia-ukraine-war/story/who-is-viktor-yanukovych-kremlin-s-pick-for-ukraine-president-after-war-1919847-2022-03-02

So like I said he could well be the likely choice. He has some legitimacy as was elected democratically as President of Ukraine so can be argued to have been illegally ousted. That would in theory lend a degree of legitimacy to him being installed and to a lesser extent Russia 's invasion. So Putin would probably see that as a good play as he can argue the toss without the argument being entirely without foundation.

So what would a new Yanukovych/new Ukrainian look like, similar to the old pre-2014 situation but with some lost territory perhaps? A little more under the thumb of the Russians? Quite possibly, but still a separate state in theory?

Sure politically for russia this makes sense.

In reality?


My prediction ?
He wouldnt last a year,and is Puti's sacrificial lamb.

They will kill him.

Then it starts again.

There needs a  much better resolution than this type of transparent attempt.

[Boethius]

This is an op-ed piece (I think the link is to the English translation) that appeared, "accidentally", in a Russian paper. 


According to Russian polls, 68% of Russians approve of the invasion.


http://uz.sputniknews.ru/20220226/nastuplenie-rossii-i-novogo-mira-22994815.html

Maybe AFTER this invasion,  donbass  and crimea are  the only regions speaking Russian?.

However it would be misguided to think russian was spoken by the bulk.of Ukrainian people as a daily language.
You do know the entire black sea coastal.cities do so from west to east?  Most of the major central.cities along the dnepro including dnepropetrovsk and Kyiv.
The. Kharkov the old capitil.

Much shorter list of where Ukrainian was previously the daily language.
As beo noted  it became the officisl.language for legal documents and government administrative work.


My wifes daily language was indeed russian,her home city much closer to.moldovan border than  to donestk.

The daily language of husband's family is Russian.  But nephew used to speak more surzhik when in Kyiv. 


When my husband was in the navy, a Ukrainian once said "There is no Ukraine beyond the river Buh."   I think that was too far.  Neverthless, even in Ukraine today, you'd hear more Ukrainian from about Vinnitsya and West.  Even in L'viv, the epicentre of Ukrainian nationalism, it is not unusual to hear Russian being spoken.