Who will win the War, Russia or Ukraine?

[GQBlues]

I have no idea what you're trying to say.  Nevertheless, does "freedom fries" ring a bell?

If this was a response to my post, I specifically chose France 24 for the simple reasons,


1. It's non-US/Russia medium
2. It's government-owned, IINM.


Unless France has a 'bias', one would think this is valid and accurate reporting.

[Boethius]

Yes, but what was your point?  I wasn't referring to the "unbiased" source.

[GQBlues]

Yes, but what was your point?  I wasn't referring to the "unbiased" source.

I thought it was pretty clear.


In response and support to Steamer's post 'taking pot shots at Russian speakers'...

[Trenchcoat]

Sure politically for russia this makes sense.

In reality?


My prediction ?
He wouldnt last a year,and is Puti's sacrificial lamb.

They will kill him.

Then it starts again.

There needs a  much better resolution than this type of transparent attempt.

Possibly, my guess would be that plum positions would be on offer. New army & police forces would again be created but owing their loyalty to Yanukovych. Possibly Russia would cone to an 'agreement' with the new government to place army bases in Ukraine, most likely in rural areas but fairly bear the big cities. Possibly Yanukovych might just come in as a caretaker holding the Presidential position until new elections can be held then ballot box stuffing for the new Pro-Russian candidate. Yanokovich just there temporarily to lend a sense of legitimacy to the new government as after all Yanukovych is getting on a bit now.

Other option of course is for the Russians to wait to be 'approached' by a group of peace seeking Pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians. That may look not so bad to Ukrainians but would still probably need Russian backing to ensure they stay in power. Possibly Russia may mix the two options, guess it may prove intriguing what they rummage up at least lol.

[Boethius]

I thought it was pretty clear.


In response and support to Steamer's post 'taking pot shots at Russian speakers'...

So a motion by an oblast government, a motion that, incidentally, was opposed by the majority of the oblast's population, and denounced in Kyiv, is "taking pot shots"?

[GQBlues]

So a motion by an oblast government, a motion that, incidentally, was opposed by the majority of the oblast's population, and denounced in Kyiv, is "taking pot shots"?

You consult with the reporter of France 24 of that question.


http://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210401-new-law-stokes-ukraine-language-tensions

The ensuing report of that article.

Galyna Lekunova, a veterinarian in the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, was left fuming by a new law in January mandating the use of Ukrainian in the service industry. In protest against the regulations that she said amounted to "discrimination," the 47-year-old began offering 50-percent discounts to her Russian-speaking clients.

This is what she believes spurred the perpetrators of a graffiti attack on her clinic, which was defaced in late January with scrawls of black coffins and a warning of "Death to the enemies".

[Boethius]

No, you're the one who made the point. 


A motion that is not supported by the population of the region in which it was introduced (which represents about 5% of Ukraine's population), and which is denounced by the central government, is hardly a demonstration of an anti Russian sentiment in Ukraine.

[GQBlues]

No, you're the one who made the point.

The point of which was made to Steamer. 

A motion that is not supported by the population of the region in which it was introduced (which represents about 5% of Ukraine's population), and which is denounced by the central government, is hardly a demonstration of an anti Russian sentiment in Ukraine.

Yet became law. Bottom line, Ukraine can do whatever it wants in Ukraine. For instance..

An article of the laws that entered into force in January goes further, obliging shops, restaurants and the service industry to engage customers in Ukrainian unless clients specifically ask to switch. Anyone caught violating the new legislation twice within one year could be fined 200 euros ($235), almost half of the average salary in the country. No one has been penalised so far.

"Anyone caught violating the new legislation twice within one year could be fined 200 euros ($235), almost half of the average salary in the country."


If that isn't 'taking pot shots at Russian speakers', well, I don't know what is.

I hope they never enforce that if the opportunity did presented itself. Just as I hope Canadian authorities doesn't levy a fine to a homeowner who sold their home to a minority as is cited in their real estate law.

[Trenchcoat]

Apparently Georgia is now after EU membership too now. No doubt after military protection of the if one member is attacked then it counts as an attack on all members policy. With Russia distracted in Ukraine they probably reckon now is a good to me to get the application in without an immediate reaction from Russia.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10570227/Georgia-applies-join-EU-immediately-days-Ukraine-demanded-membership.html

[Chelseaboy]

I think the real elephant in the room that has received very little attention in all of this is that of Ukrainian Military casualties. The Ukrainians don't seem to want to talk about it, they can apparently tot up the troop casualties of Russia but seem unable to do it with their own Ukrainian troops. Russia today came out with their own figures for its own troop casualties which were well below the Ukrainian figures for Russian troop casualties. So either Ukraine is inflating Russian troop casualties to make it look like Ukraine is doing favourably or Russia is lying.

I think the fact that Ukraine hasn't come out with any even rough idea of troop casualties could well be an attempt to keep bad news from the population and the outside world they are asking for help. After all if Ukrainian troop losses were high the picture Ukraine paints of Ukraine doing well against the Russians and hence much admiration around the world wouldn't look so impressive. I doubt very much that troop losses have been so minimal they are hardly worth stating. My thoughts is that Ukrainian troop losses are likely high possibly very high. They've thrown a lot of troops into protecting their cities and ultimately that may prove a problem for them. As each city becomes surrounded in turn, Ukrainian troops are left in a fight to the end type of situation until they are more or less annilalated. With that may entail a lot of devastation to each city where that goes on of course, but it may result in a lot of Ukrainian troops being placed into a situation where they will be wiped out in order for Russia to conquer the city.

Ukraine declared that 70 of their troops died in a missile attack on their barracks...that isn't hiding losses is it ?


Another 13 were declared from the island in the Black Sea....their deaths were not hidden.


Fact is Ukraine started with 215,000 troops...their main problem will be weapons and ammunition getting to them.


Putin must be less confident than you about the Ukrainian military being mopped up....he's had to call Belarus for re-inforcements.


Strange when he's lost just 498 troops as he claims...the Kremlin couldn't be lying again could they ?

[Patagonie]

Georgia tries to enjoy the uplift given by the war in Ukraine, IMHO that's a big political mistake.

[ML]

He has some legitimacy as was elected democratically as President of Ukraine so can be argued to have been illegally ousted.

He was not illegally ousted.
He ran away with his tail between his legs and his helicopter packed with Ukrainian gold.

[Patagonie]

He was not illegally ousted.
He ran away with his tail between his legs and his helicopter packed with Ukrainian gold.

+1

[Boethius]

Yet became law. Bottom line, Ukraine can do whatever it wants in Ukraine.

Oblasts have no power to make law, so no, it was never a law. 

The January law is a way to broaden Ukrainian language usage.  In a country where the native language was oppressed for centuries by laws that banned the use of Ukrainian, right up into the 1980's, I do not find this law so terrible.  Quebec has a similar law for the use of French within the province.  In fact, its law goes even further, as it covers signage, regulated professions (must pass a test for French language proficiency, or have been educated in a French school), and pass tests as immigrants to Quebec.

The Ukrainian language law did not force customers to speak in Ukrainian, and clerks could revert to Russian if addressed in Russian.  So, hardly something to get one's panties in a knot about.

[ML]

I would hazard a guess that the Ukrainian born wives of most men here speak Russian, not Ukrainian, as their daily language, or did until February 22.

Probably true for most.

However my wife and all her family have always spoken Ukrainian as their primary language.

Wife is, of course, equally fluent in Russian.

One of the Ukrainian couples here in our town is from Kharkiv.
They switched from Russian to Ukrainian as their primary language way  back in 2014 or so, as did their families still in Kharkiv.

[Trenchcoat]

Ukraine declared that 70 of their troops died in a missile attack on their barracks...that isn't hiding losses is it ?


Another 13 were declared from the island in the Black Sea....their deaths were not hidden.


Fact is Ukraine started with 215,000 troops...their main problem will be weapons and ammunition getting to them.

They must have lost way more troops than that though, sure they'll admit to the few where the news is already out about it but no troop losses statistics at large. I'm pretty certain this is to keep morale up and make it appear to the outside world that it is doing better than thought against Russia.

My own thoughts are that the figures probably show a lot more realistic battle losses outcome. Sure Russia is coming up against stiff resistance but apparently Ukraine had shifted a lot of troops to the main cities hence why they were able to repel the quick strike and seize attempts by Russia.

Russia have some embarrassing losses likely with the help of anti tank weapons, but my guess is that some of the fighting back against this armour came at a heavy price on some occasions.

My guess is that many thousands of Ukrainian soldiers may have perished not just the odd handful here or there that we hear about.

Recent reports suggest that supermarkets in Kyiv and sone other cities are already running out of food:

http://inews.co.uk/news/ukraine-kyiv-supermarkets-running-out-food-russian-troops-encircle-capital-1494214

Article suggests Putin may use a siege and stave strategy to conquer the cities more easily, as I suggested he may do.

[Boethius]

Probably true for most.

However my wife and all her family have always spoken Ukrainian as their primary language.

Wife is, of course, equally fluent in Russian.

One of the Ukrainian couples here in our town is from Kharkiv.
They switched from Russian to Ukrainian as their primary language way  back in 2014 or so, as did their families still in Kharkiv.

At church, most Ukrainian families speak Russian, not Ukrainian.  They are Ukrainian husband/wife.  Many are from Donbas, and arrived as refugees.

[Trenchcoat]

He was not illegally ousted.
He ran away with his tail between his legs and his helicopter packed with Ukrainian gold.

Ukrainians should have surely waited to the Presidential Election to oust by way of vote, that was the legally given way. Hence all other ways are in theory illegal as in accepting democracy that is the accepted way of legally replacing the President/Administration by use of the vote.

[Boethius]

When you, as a president, turn forces on peaceful protestors (which Yanukovych did), you lose your legitimacy as a democratically elected president.

[GQBlues]

Oblasts have no power to make law, so no, it was never a law. 

The January law is a way to broaden Ukrainian language usage.  In a country where the native language was oppressed for centuries by laws that banned the use of Ukrainian, right up into the 1980's, I do not find this law so terrible.  Quebec has a similar law for the use of French within the province.  In fact, its law goes even further, as it covers signage, regulated professions (must pass a test for French language proficiency, or have been educated in a French school), and pass tests as immigrants to Quebec.

The Ukrainian language law did not force customers to speak in Ukrainian, and clerks could revert to Russian if addressed in Russian.  So, hardly something to get one's panties in a knot about.

Actually the Language law was passed April 25, 2019; 5 days before Poroshenko's end term.


Just as with everything else, 'perception' is subjective.

[Boethius]

That law just made Ukrainian the state language of Ukraine.

[Trenchcoat]

When you, as a president, turn forces on peaceful protestors (which Yanukovych did), you lose your legitimacy as a democratically elected president.

Police violence has been used on peaceful protesters in the UK many times but never has it been judged to nullify the results of a democratic mandate.

[GQBlues]

That law just made Ukrainian the state language of Ukraine.

The January provision, entered on the 16th, contained Article 25, which made exceptions for other languages such as English and other European languages, but not Russian. "Ukrainian authorities justified this by referring to the country's European ambitions and the century oppressions of Ukrainian in favor of Russian".


Going back to the original supporting post to Steamer's, again, subjectively - that's 'taking pot shots at Russian speakers' to me.

[Boethius]

No, it's taking potshots at successive governments, over centuries, who suppressed the Ukrainian language. 


Russian continues to have minority language status in Ukraine.  There are Russian schools in every city, funded by Ukrainian state funds.  There are Russian newspapers.  Those living in Ukraine can access Russian media online.


Why is it a "potshot" for a country which is 78% ethnic Ukrainian to declare Ukrainian as its official language? 


How many Ukrainian language schools, funded by the Russian government, exist in Ukraine?  I'll tell you how many.  Zero.

[Admin]

No, it's taking potshots at successive governments, over centuries, who suppressed the Ukrainian language. 


Russian continues to have minority language status in Ukraine.  There are Russian schools in every city, funded by Ukrainian state funds.  There are Russian newspapers.  Those living in Ukraine can access Russian media online.


Why is it a "potshot" for a country which is 78% ethnic Ukrainian to declare Ukrainian as its official language? 


How many Ukrainian language schools, funded by the Russian government, exist in Ukraine?  I'll tell you how many.  Zero.

I'm sorry, I missed the genesis of this debate. Why is it a problem that Ukraine explicitly states the national language as Ukrainian? As a sovereign nation do they not have the right to specify in which language government/legal activities are conducted?