Politics regarding struggle for Ukraine

[ML]

US rejects Poland offer to send fighter jets to Ukraine
http://news.am/eng/news/690453.html

To be completely honest, the above wording is not true.

"As we have said, the decision about whether to transfer Polish-owned planes to Ukraine is ultimately one for the Polish government."

They can be flown from Poland into Ukraine without need for any US approval.

But US rejects idea that these planes be flown from a US airbase into Ukraine.

Note:  I am all for US intervening directly into Ukraine.

But no purpose is served by tossing around incorrect information about what US has or will do.

[2tallbill]

To be completely honest, the above wording is not true.

"As we have said, the decision about whether to transfer Polish-owned planes to Ukraine is ultimately one for the Polish government."

They can be flown from Poland into Ukraine without need for any US approval.

But US rejects idea that these planes be flown from a US airbase into Ukraine.

Note:  I am all for US intervening directly into Ukraine.

But no purpose is served by tossing around incorrect information about what US has or will do.

This is pure subterfuge/obfuscation. Name one US air base in Poland.
There are Polish bases in Poland and because Poland is a member of
NATO they are defacto NATO bases.

The simple solution is to truck in Ukrainian pilots and let them fly the
planes from a civilian airport to Ukraine themselves. The second hold
up is that the US must agree to back fill the planes donated to Ukraine
with American planes such as the F16.

[krimster2]

gawsh Beel
my security clearance expired years ago,
sounds like yours is still active!!
good thing you KNOW SO MUCH about military issues
otherwise us poor ignurrant bastids would't really know what's goin on!

bolshoi LOL!!!
there's no freakin reason for me to wonder WHY YOU voted for Trump...
nope, I can already SEE the reason, can YOU Beel?
hmmmm?

[ML]

To clarify:

Poland wanted to fly the planes from Poland to the US airbase in Germany.  And then from there, on to Ukraine.

[BC]

It's all about sending offensive weapons that can reach far into Russia, vs defensive weapons.

Poland wanted to send fighters to UA via a US airbase in Germany, where UA pilots would fly them to UA.

Poland did not want the transfer originating in their country, as RU has threatened retaliation for such.

It is not a hard concept to grasp.

Limited numbers of offensive weapons are more easily tracked/monitored and smuggled unnoticed.  Imagine 400 of 'em, RU would easily notice and destroy them not far from the border.  More can be sent as UA crews are trained to use them.   It's a complex operation, training, maintenance, spare parts, and complex logistics.  It's not like ordering something from Amazon and expecting two-day delivery.

These things have to be tightly controlled and monitored.  Imagine RU getting ahold of one of 'em and trying a false flag operation in an attempt to justify an attack on a city in Russia.  We have to be in a position to prove otherwise.  Can we observe and monitor 400?  No.  4 Yes, 40 maybe. 

Furthermore, the west is providing intel, but not providing UA with targeting instructions.  We'll have to see how UA uses these weapons.

[2tallbill]

To clarify:

Poland wanted to fly the planes from Poland to the US airbase in Germany.  And then from there, on to Ukraine.

A real leader would have called Poland out on that and recommended that
Ukraine send pilots to take the planes home themselves.

[2tallbill]

Poland wanted to send fighters to UA via a US airbase in Germany, where UA pilots would fly them to UA.

Poland did not want the transfer originating in their country, as RU has threatened retaliation for such.

It is not a hard concept to grasp.

BC Macron

Russia has threatened to incinerate various countries with Nukes. They
have been ignored, by real leaders it's not a hard concept to grasp.

[2tallbill]

there's no freakin reason for me to wonder WHY YOU voted for Trump...
nope, I can already SEE the reason, can YOU Beel?
hmmmm?

Are you trying to make a point to someone?

[Grumpy]

 Human interest story about Olena Zelenska.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/18/olena-zelenska-ukraine-first-lady-rare-interview-family-under-threat

[BC]

BC Macron

Russia has threatened to incinerate various countries with Nukes. They
have been ignored, by real leaders it's not a hard concept to grasp.

Tickling the dragon's tail comes to mind.

[Grumpy]

http://images.dailykos.com/images/1062297/large/Stalin-Putin.jpg?1650771264

[Grumpy]

 "The idea the Ukraine conflict could be confined to Ukraine – Nato’s politically convenient grand delusion – and that western sanctions and arms supplies would stop the Russians was always a nonsense. Now, enraged by Kyiv’s stubborn resistance and hell-bent on punishing his punishers, Putin’s aim is the immiseration of Europe.

By weaponising energy, food, refugees and information, Russia’s leader spreads the economic and political pain, creating wartime conditions for all. A long, cold, calamity-filled European winter of power shortages and turmoil looms. And like a coin-fed gas meter, the price of western leaders’ timidity and shortsightedness ticks upwards by the hour."

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/17/putin-is-already-at-war-with-europe-there-is-only-one-way-to-stop-him

[Chelseaboy]

I'm amazed we haven't started conscription in the UK yet.


Putler has publicly said recently he wants the FSU back,and intends to grind the USA/democracy into the dust.


The Chechens Parliament has said that unless Putler says otherwise they intend to keep going until they reach Berlin.


Back in May the orc's Duma said that Poland is next after Ukraine.


Europe has been warned,but prefers to put it's head in the sand rather than get directly involved.


I hear the cry "but Russia has Nukes "..yes and so have we.


Do we all spend the rest of our lives cowering to Russian threats of Nuking us every time we do something they don't like ?


Or do we take it to them now and end this despotic and brutal regime once and for all  ?

[BC]

Patience Chelseaboy.

The louder Putin barks, the weaker he sounds.

In essence, RU is moving towards an NK or Iran environment, but with a population that has already tasted the fruits from a period of relative success.  The big question is how long Putin can count on or enforce public support.  Any change must come from within.

The longer the UA war draws out, the fewer resources RU can shift to any front.  Meanwhile, the west is gearing up for all eventualities at a pace that may not be directly noticeable.  Such takes many months.

The only quick solution is unthinkable.  I'd rather stay affected economically than deal with total destruction.

[Grumpy]

 We know enough to be sure that there is no such peace agreement under which Russia would put its signature and keep its word. Given its actions in Syria, and its behaviour after the seizure of Crimea, it should be obvious that Moscow is using peace talks as a distraction and a trap, not as a solution. Russia violated the Minsk and Normandy agreements immediately after signing and, for eight years, has not fully fulfilled any of its commitments. To date, Russia has violated all basic norms and principles of international law. There is no shape or form that Ukraine can take as an independent nation with which Russia will ever be able to live. Ukrainians know this and that is why they continue to resist the aggressor. They continue their struggle for freedom.


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/11/ukraine-proposal-west-security-guarantee-budapest-memorandum

[2tallbill]

Imagine 400 of 'em, RU would easily notice and destroy them not far from the border.  More can be sent as UA crews are trained to use them.

Russia is least capable near the Polish border. Nobody would make a convoy of
400 Himars. Sending 10 at a time? far more realistic.

[Lonestar]

Regarding the comments back in June about planes to Ukraine from Poland.

Poland wanted the USA to give free planes to Poland that are more current and then Poland would donate its old retired planes to Ukraine.  USA wanted Poland to pay the cost of the new planes they would get (no markup).  Poland cannot afford them.  So Poland made a deal with South Korea on military equipment as its cheaper than what USA had.  Now its not as good but it is still better than what Russia has.

Poland and several other countries in Europe who keep talking about donating military equipment to Ukraine want the USA to give them new military hardware as replacement.

Poland going the South Korea way is not going to sit well with certain USA / UK Defense Contractors. 

[Grumpy]

 Cumulatively that has left Putin not looking for a way out, but a way to stay in the war. Mark Galeotti, the author of Putin’s Wars, believes Moscow has now clearly moved from winning the war to not losing it, and that requires trying to outsuffer the west. Orlando Figes summarised it recently: “The war is now entering a new phase because winter has arrived and the Russians are going to dig in. That is why they are ceding the western bank of the Dnieper River. The current phase is to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure, to create a refugee problem, and start an economic war against the west. That’s where the war will be played out and everything will be decided. What determines the outcome of the war will be how willing western societies are to continue supporting Ukraine.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/26/ukraine-war-revenge-of-history-how-geopolitics-shaping-conflict

[krimster2]

I am currently helping my daughter's Russian husbands navigate the USA's education system!
oldest one is now k-1 visa approved, and they are moving into my parent's old house in Arlington, VA
youngest and her husband are going to school in Israel, and will move here at the end of next summer!

covid changed the whole virtual education thang
it's one of the things covid accellerated
so I have one of my Russians getting a degree in cybersecurity from the university of maryland online campus!!!
and he's on a 5 year timeline to citizenship in the usa
and not a draft dodger, he did his army service already, but won't be fighting for Putin

so, ya see, 2 years ago, the duma approved changes to the freakin Russian constitution so that putin could serve as czar of Russia for 2 more terms, otherwise he would have to permanently step down 15 months from now when his presidential term limits expire.  once the duma passed this law, it sealed Ukraine's doom!

putin is the kind of predator that weakens his prey first, before he tries to kill it
rather than waste his energy with a straight-on kill approach
hence crimea and donbas
before the special military operation to finish off the wounded beast

so March, 2024, Russian election day, is VERY important
for the special military operation
Trump should pay CLOSE ATTENTION
cuz Putin will show the world, step by step, how to make a COMLETELY FAKE ELECTION with FAKE CANDIDATES and STILL call it a democracy!

Dick Taters
penis shaped french fries

big thing right now, all across Russia
is sending care packages to soldiers for orthodox Christmas
familes, employers are sending food/clothing bundles
it'd be a shame if the grinch found out
and started setting fires at the mail warehouses
yup, a real shame...
he who has ears...

[Trenchcoat]

I am currently helping my daughter's Russian husbands navigate the USA's education system!
oldest one is now k-1 visa approved, and they are moving into my parent's old house in Arlington, VA
youngest and her husband are going to school in Israel, and will move here at the end of next summer!

covid changed the whole virtual education thang
it's one of the things covid accellerated
so I have one of my Russians getting a degree in cybersecurity from the university of maryland online campus!!!
and he's on a 5 year timeline to citizenship in the usa
and not a draft dodger, he did his army service already, but won't be fighting for Putin

so, ya see, 2 years ago, the duma approved changes to the freakin Russian constitution so that putin could serve as czar of Russia for 2 more terms, otherwise he would have to permanently step down 15 months from now when his presidential term limits expire.  once the duma passed this law, it sealed Ukraine's doom!

putin is the kind of predator that weakens his prey first, before he tries to kill it
rather than waste his energy with a straight-on kill approach
hence crimea and donbas
before the special military operation to finish off the wounded beast

so March, 2024, Russian election day, is VERY important
for the special military operation
Trump should pay CLOSE ATTENTION
cuz Putin will show the world, step by step, how to make a COMLETELY FAKE ELECTION with FAKE CANDIDATES and STILL call it a democracy!

Dick Taters
penis shaped french fries

big thing right now, all across Russia
is sending care packages to soldiers for orthodox Christmas
familes, employers are sending food/clothing bundles
it'd be a shame if the grinch found out
and started setting fires at the mail warehouses
yup, a real shame...
he who has ears...

How did your daughter's agree on there husband's so readily and quickly Krim? After all I assume they have to get on with them, live with them and outlook of being with them for the rest of their lives and all from such a relatively young age.

On the above strategic point I agree. Russia may not be doing well at the moment and taking big losses but it's also dragging it out for Ukraine. Russia can build up big troop numbers going forward in the hundreds of thousands to a million plus and hit Ukraine in the north and south with them. Ukraine would likely find such an additional overwhelming force potentially too much and fold. It's not a scenario I relish if it came about as I am on the side of an independent Ukraine if possible. I think at the moment though people may be too easily anticipating a Ukrainian victory and while I wish for that I think it may be pre-emptive. The west have shown with Afghanistan that they aren't willing/can't find a war indefinitely and our coffers are near empty.

[Chelseaboy]

How did your daughter's agree on there husband's so readily and quickly Krim? After all I assume they have to get on with them, live with them and outlook of being with them for the rest of their lives and all from such a relatively young age.

On the above strategic point I agree. Russia may not be doing well at the moment and taking big losses but it's also dragging it out for Ukraine. Russia can build up big troop numbers going forward in the hundreds of thousands to a million plus and hit Ukraine in the north and south with them. Ukraine would likely find such an additional overwhelming force potentially too much and fold. It's not a scenario I relish if it came about as I am on the side of an independent Ukraine if possible. I think at the moment though people may be too easily anticipating a Ukrainian victory and while I wish for that I think it may be pre-emptive. The west have shown with Afghanistan that they aren't willing/can't find a war indefinitely and our coffers are near empty.

For sure Russian can put more men into the field as soldiers.


However,they're not being NATO-trained as Ukraine's new recruits are,and the Russian orcs are being supplied with antiquated military weaponry,such as rusty assault rifles and T-64 Tanks.


There is a reason Putler is begging Belarus,Iran and North Korea for weapons...Russia is running out...and i doubt they can take Ukraine with slingshots,regardless of how many troops they have.

[Trenchcoat]

For sure Russian can put more men into the field as soldiers.


However,they're not being NATO-trained as Ukraine's new recruits are,and the Russian orcs are being supplied with antiquated military weaponry,such as rusty assault rifles and T-64 Tanks.


There is a reason Putler is begging Belarus,Iran and North Korea for weapons...Russia is running out...and i doubt they can take Ukraine with slingshots,regardless of how many troops they have.

I wouldn't underestimate Russia. It looks like the war is pushing Russia & Iran into greater co-operation. North Korea, Belarus & China are all possibilities also. All Russia will care about is whether they can get weapons supplies from these countries or anywhere else on this planet in addition to their own manufacturing. My guess is they'll get enough if what they'll need.

I don't see it necessarily as one blow to knock Ukraine out but a continual bombardment over time. A second bigger wave just adding to pressure on Ukraine. At the moment a lot of Ukraine's electricity grid is down, approx 9 million Ukrainians without power (somewhere towards a quarter of their population I believe). Cities being hit by cruise missiles, those that get through when they fire them, but also artillery, mortars, etc. Drones of course on both sides.

There's really only western Ukraine that hasn't been too badly affected by the war but it's productivity isn't the best. Overall Ukraine's economy is cracking, both by reduced trade, destruction from war and reduced budget and spending that budget on the war. It looks likely that Ukraine's economy is in a weaker position to Russia.

Sure Ukraine has received some modern up to date western weapons, Himars, Patriot missiles, but they tend to have specific purposes and taking out large numbers of ground troops isn't one of them. I don't foresee Ukraine cracking up this minute but if Russia holds on longer term I'm not so sure that Ukraine will fair well. After all troops need to be paid for, food bought, etc for people to survive. The west is largely broke from the virus & subsequent economic spin off so I don't see that they'll be able to prop up Ukraine.

As a supporter of Ukraine I don't wish to see an eventual Russian victory I would much rather Ukraine win out. Like Krim though I can see the way Russia may be moving like a Russian bear gradually and painfully wrestling the life out of its prey, bit by bit over time.

Western training all helps but against vastly superior numbers and an increasingly wretched situation I am not so sure it will be enough. If Ukraine can move quickly to eject most of the Russian armies in the east who knows. To me though it looks like Putler isn't going to give up on this one not I'm guessing is able to.

[krimster2]

mysterious Russian hacker creates a SDR (software defined Radio) system coupled with a sweep generator GPS jammer with a hi-gain antenna that makes HI-MARS useless and easy to destroy by counter missile attack

after being awarded a medal by Putin, he meets Putin's single blond daughter
there is "instant chemistry" and soon they are dating
BUT...
the first time he has sex with her he looks down at her face
AND,,,
he sees Putin's face smiling up at him!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

Trench,
my daughters are ALPHA females, soon as they were "legal" they were "hit on" CONSTANTLY
by mostly BETA males...
they'd date some alphas but quickly move on, like a hummingbird sampling the nectar in a garden
untill...
they find something REALLY SWEET
so they both married super-model looking guys with sweet personalities
after watching them, I think they are smart getting married at such a young age compared to me at 40+
life is easier when you live as two, plus I think how much energy I put into "chasing wimmin" that you can spend elsewhere
like making money to please your wife who then LOVES YOU LONG TIME!!!  nudge...nudge...wink...wink...

[Grumpy]

On the above strategic point I agree. Russia may not be doing well at the moment and taking big losses but it's also dragging it out for Ukraine. Russia can build up big troop numbers going forward in the hundreds of thousands to a million plus and hit Ukraine in the north and south with them. Ukraine would likely find such an additional overwhelming force potentially too much and fold. It's not a scenario I relish if it came about as I am on the side of an independent Ukraine if possible. I think at the moment though people may be too easily anticipating a Ukrainian victory and while I wish for that I think it may be pre-emptive. The west have shown with Afghanistan that they aren't willing/can't find a war indefinitely and our coffers are near empty.

The Soviet Union and allies lasted 9 years and 2 months against Afghanistan. The USSR was much stronger and wealthier than Russia currently is, Ukraine is a stronger foe than the Afghans. Putin and his gang of thieves have embezzled and robbed Russia into near bankruptcy. The Russians have neither the means or the will to last much longer. 

[Chelseaboy]

I wouldn't underestimate Russia. It looks like the war is pushing Russia & Iran into greater co-operation. North Korea, Belarus & China are all possibilities also. All Russia will care about is whether they can get weapons supplies from these countries or anywhere else on this planet in addition to their own manufacturing. My guess is they'll get enough if what they'll need.

I don't see it necessarily as one blow to knock Ukraine out but a continual bombardment over time. A second bigger wave just adding to pressure on Ukraine. At the moment a lot of Ukraine's electricity grid is down, approx 9 million Ukrainians without power (somewhere towards a quarter of their population I believe). Cities being hit by cruise missiles, those that get through when they fire them, but also artillery, mortars, etc. Drones of course on both sides.

There's really only western Ukraine that hasn't been too badly affected by the war but it's productivity isn't the best. Overall Ukraine's economy is cracking, both by reduced trade, destruction from war and reduced budget and spending that budget on the war. It looks likely that Ukraine's economy is in a weaker position to Russia.

Sure Ukraine has received some modern up to date western weapons, Himars, Patriot missiles, but they tend to have specific purposes and taking out large numbers of ground troops isn't one of them. I don't foresee Ukraine cracking up this minute but if Russia holds on longer term I'm not so sure that Ukraine will fair well. After all troops need to be paid for, food bought, etc for people to survive. The west is largely broke from the virus & subsequent economic spin off so I don't see that they'll be able to prop up Ukraine.

As a supporter of Ukraine I don't wish to see an eventual Russian victory I would much rather Ukraine win out. Like Krim though I can see the way Russia may be moving like a Russian bear gradually and painfully wrestling the life out of its prey, bit by bit over time.

Western training all helps but against vastly superior numbers and an increasingly wretched situation I am not so sure it will be enough. If Ukraine can move quickly to eject most of the Russian armies in the east who knows. To me though it looks like Putler isn't going to give up on this one not I'm guessing is able to.