Politics regarding struggle for Ukraine

[Patagonie]

This doesn't correspond to what has happened in Lviv.
Russia apparently uses long range missiles launched from their planes still in Russian territory.
So they could do the same with respect to bombing central Kyiv.

I spoke about artillery. 
About missiles they have used a lot, to the point that they don't have a lot now, and they have mainly kept it for strategical or tactical high value target. It is not worth to use all their stock to destroy a city. 
For the bombing from planes, they can do this ponctually, but they are facing the IADS (S300)) see http://www.ausairpower.net/sams-iads.htmlor low mid altitude SAM.

[ML]

Shouldn't we be beyond the point of worrying about provoking Russia ?

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-will-win-unless-the-west-sends-ukraine-offensive-weapons/

[Patagonie]

Shouldn't we be beyond the point of worrying about provoking Russia ?

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-will-win-unless-the-west-sends-ukraine-offensive-weapons/

That's the biggest question of the struggle, that's the turning point of no WW3 or maybe an incoming WW3, everybody worries about this.

[Patagonie]

More on the idea that majority of Russians support the terrorist invasion of Ukraine.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/

I do agree with this:
"By providing Ukraine with more weapons, the international community will enable the Ukrainian military to defend the civilian population, force Russian troops to retreat, and reduce the flow of refugees into the European Union. In other words, the quickest way to end the humanitarian crisis is to end the war. Ukraine is currently in desperate need of swift political decisions in Western capitals to provide the country with a wide range of offensive weapons. This is the only measure that can realistically stop Putin in Ukraine. It is futile to expect Ukrainian concessions at the negotiating table to satisfy Russia. Such thinking is actually far more likely to encourage Putin, leading to further acts of international aggression in Ukraine and beyond.
Putin has demonstrated in both words and deeds that his principle war aim remains the destruction of Ukrainian sovereignty and Ukrainian national identity. He insists that Ukrainians are in fact Russians and refuses to accept Ukraine’s right to exist independently of Russia. Putin will pursue these criminal goals until he is stopped. Unless the West provides Ukraine with sufficient weapons in the very near future, there may soon be no Ukraine to defend. "

[Patagonie]

The day Ukraine had given back its nuclear weapons, they have been doomed.
Of course, Ukraine should never be demilitarized. Quite the opposite, they should reinforce their military capacities.Treaties are for the weak, It's only a version of history. And the RF is constantly redefining the narrative so it is worth nothing in the end.
The only thing that holds for kroutoï loudi is the number of tanks, fighters, canons, and the willingness to fight. That's the only thing that matters for Russians.
This is something that Zapadié doesn't understand.
The French intelligence commander had been fired off because this idiot was still believing in a Russian Santa Claus.
This idiot didn't see from last autumn signs stacking week by week towards a struggle and he was believing that the RF will be too afraid or too ashamed. How is it possible to appoint a guy who is better to work in a king garden monitoring children (15 maximum, because he will be not capable to keep up more).

[Nightwish]

This doesn't correspond to what has happened in Lviv.
Russia apparently uses long range missiles launched from their planes still in Russian territory.
So they could do the same with respect to bombing central Kyiv.

And those are the type of smart weapons (expensive and in short supply), cruise missiles with GPS navigation they don't want to use on sheer destruction of civilian targets, that's what Artillery is for

[ML]

Apparently Biden, Germany and France are holding up the transfer of offensive weapons to Ukraine.

They are hoping for negotiated settlement that requires Ukraine to give up territory ??

http://www.wsj.com/articles/let-ukraine-go-on-offense-against-russia-vladimir-putin-joe-biden-nato-volodymyr-zelensky-11648761217?mod=hp_opin_pos_5

As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its sixth week, the script has flipped. Russia’s advance has stalled, and Ukraine now wants to go on offense to push back Russian forces from the land they’ve taken. But the country needs U.S. and NATO help to do it, and it seems the Biden Administration is reluctant to provide those weapons and intelligence.

The concern among Ukraine’s supporters on Capitol Hill and the Pentagon is that the Biden Administration doesn’t want Ukraine to go on offense. It wants a negotiated settlement as soon as possible. France and Germany, the doves in the NATO coalition, are in a similar place. They worry that if Russia suffers even greater losses, Mr. Putin might escalate again and perhaps in more dangerous ways that drag NATO directly into the war. In a sense, Mr. Putin with his threats is defining the limits of U.S. assistance to Ukraine.

Throughout this conflict, the Biden Administration has been slow and reluctant to give Ukraine the weapons and intelligence support it needs. Pressure from the public and Capitol Hill has forced its hand. Now, with Russia on the defensive, is the time to keep the pressure on to truly achieve a strategic victory for Ukraine and NATO.

[krimster2]

Trump supporters said WHAT about Biden?

[Boethius]

Apparently Biden, Germany and France are holding up the transfer of offensive weapons to Ukraine.

They are hoping for negotiated settlement that requires Ukraine to give up territory ??

http://www.wsj.com/articles/let-ukraine-go-on-offense-against-russia-vladimir-putin-joe-biden-nato-volodymyr-zelensky-11648761217?mod=hp_opin_pos_5

As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its sixth week, the script has flipped. Russia’s advance has stalled, and Ukraine now wants to go on offense to push back Russian forces from the land they’ve taken. But the country needs U.S. and NATO help to do it, and it seems the Biden Administration is reluctant to provide those weapons and intelligence.

The concern among Ukraine’s supporters on Capitol Hill and the Pentagon is that the Biden Administration doesn’t want Ukraine to go on offense. It wants a negotiated settlement as soon as possible. France and Germany, the doves in the NATO coalition, are in a similar place. They worry that if Russia suffers even greater losses, Mr. Putin might escalate again and perhaps in more dangerous ways that drag NATO directly into the war. In a sense, Mr. Putin with his threats is defining the limits of U.S. assistance to Ukraine.

Throughout this conflict, the Biden Administration has been slow and reluctant to give Ukraine the weapons and intelligence support it needs. Pressure from the public and Capitol Hill has forced its hand. Now, with Russia on the defensive, is the time to keep the pressure on to truly achieve a strategic victory for Ukraine and NATO.

From a negotiation perspective, I think it would be wise for Western powers to approve sending offensive weapons, including planes, to be placed in Poland, for immediate transfer if Russian offensives escalate.  They can hold back weapons if negotiations continue.


Russia needs to know that if they escalate the war, it is going to be bloody, will include strikes on Russian soil, and will include civilians, just as they've done in Ukraine.  I think if they see that, some in the Russian leadership will back down.  I have no hope for the former KGB within their leadership.

[Patagonie]

Apparently Biden, Germany and France are holding up the transfer of offensive weapons to Ukraine.

They are hoping for negotiated settlement that requires Ukraine to give up territory ??

http://www.wsj.com/articles/let-ukraine-go-on-offense-against-russia-vladimir-putin-joe-biden-nato-volodymyr-zelensky-11648761217?mod=hp_opin_pos_5

As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its sixth week, the script has flipped. Russia’s advance has stalled, and Ukraine now wants to go on offense to push back Russian forces from the land they’ve taken. But the country needs U.S. and NATO help to do it, and it seems the Biden Administration is reluctant to provide those weapons and intelligence.

The concern among Ukraine’s supporters on Capitol Hill and the Pentagon is that the Biden Administration doesn’t want Ukraine to go on offense. It wants a negotiated settlement as soon as possible. France and Germany, the doves in the NATO coalition, are in a similar place. They worry that if Russia suffers even greater losses, Mr. Putin might escalate again and perhaps in more dangerous ways that drag NATO directly into the war. In a sense, Mr. Putin with his threats is defining the limits of U.S. assistance to Ukraine.

Throughout this conflict, the Biden Administration has been slow and reluctant to give Ukraine the weapons and intelligence support it needs. Pressure from the public and Capitol Hill has forced its hand. Now, with Russia on the defensive, is the time to keep the pressure on to truly achieve a strategic victory for Ukraine and NATO.

 
Biden, Germany, and France still haven't understood the RF spirit, let a fine connoisseur talk:
Dzhokhar Dudayev former leader of chechens in the war against Russia said: "Russia always offers negotiations when it's hard for it, when plans are falling apart in order to buy time, tighten up strength, correct mistakes, find a weak spot, and then strike with renewed vigor!" 
This is where westerners are especially stupid, this is the exact time to make more losses on the Russian army because the disruption of the army on the battlefield is the first way to push the regime to collapse. More military stuff you destroy and less territorial and political ambition the RF will have. 
RF talking about pausing, negociations? Full throttle counter-attack!

[2tallbill]

From a negotiation perspective, I think it would be wise for Western powers to approve sending offensive weapons, including planes, to be placed in Poland, for immediate transfer if Russian offensives escalate.  They can hold back weapons if negotiations continue.

That's the Vietnam roadmap on how to lose. Politicians trying to micromanage
the people on the ground. It would also alienate Ukrainians to the West.

some in the Russian leadership will back down.  I have no hope for the former KGB within their leadership.

Putin is the only leader in Russia that matters.

[2tallbill]

Apparently Biden, Germany and France are holding up the transfer of
offensive weapons to Ukraine.

Team Biden was always destined to f#ck this up.

[krimster2]

"Team Biden was always destined to f#ck this up. "

Team Trump....
said NO WEAPONS AT ALL
and then after that Trump was FORCED to give Ukraine weapons 2 months later after Vindman "blew the whistle" and he was impeached for his "perfect phone call"
Team Trump then told Ukraine, "you're not allowed to use the weapons and they have to be stored"
a policy team Biden reversed....
and of course the 2016 Republican platform, COMPLETELY REMOVED from their policy plan the provision for arming Ukraine
but because you voted for Trump, you're OK with his actions, you have no complaints whatsoever...
but Biden....
shiver me timbers!

other than one small detail...
do you think Mrs Lincoln enjoyed the play at Ford's theater Beel?

[Boethius]

That's the Vietnam roadmap on how to lose. Politicians trying to micromanage the people on the ground. It would also alienate Ukrainians to the West.

No, I disagree with your assessment.  First, supplying weaponry, and strength is not "micromanaging".  Russians need to understand that any war in Ukraine is going to be prolonged, and bloody, and could very well spill into Russia.  When Russian civilians start dying the way Ukrainian civilians have been, the war will end sooner.


Second, you completely misunderstand Western Ukrainians.  They are far more likely to want zero capitulation on territory.

Putin is the only leader in Russia that matters.

Not really.  His clique all support this war. 

[BC]

Apparently Biden, Germany and France are holding up the transfer of offensive weapons to Ukraine.

They are hoping for negotiated settlement that requires Ukraine to give up territory ??

They don't want to give Putin an excuse for further escalation.  The weapons being provided to Ukraine have been proven to be very effective.  Whether Ukraine desires to push across borders is their choice.  Ukrainian citizens live in well-entrenched rebel-held areas of UA making advances there more difficult.

Personally, I believe a treaty between UA and RU giving RU Crimea in exchange for Donetsk and Luhansk returning to UA control might be on the table as a compromise and/or declaring them military-free zones.  Further, UA could declare neutrality with a referendum, giving themselves the right to receive defensive weapons provided by the west and maintain credible defensive armed forces.

Talks of EU/NATO giving Article 5 type guarantees will not pan out.  At most, UN peacekeepers in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk rebel-held areas might be an alternative solution.

[Patagonie]

They don't want to give Putin an excuse for further escalation.  The weapons being provided to Ukraine have been proven to be very effective.  Whether Ukraine desires to push across borders is their choice.  Ukrainian citizens live in well-entrenched rebel-held areas of UA making advances there more difficult.

Personally, I believe a treaty between UA and RU giving RU Crimea in exchange for Donetsk and Luhansk returning to UA control might be on the table as a compromise and/or declaring them military-free zones.  Further, UA could declare neutrality with a referendum, giving themselves the right to receive defensive weapons provided by the west and maintain credible defensive armed forces.

Talks of EU/NATO giving Article 5 type guarantees will not pan out.  At most, UN peacekeepers in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk rebel-held areas might be an alternative solution.

As Boethius wrote I am not sure that reintegrating the DNR is the best choice for Ukraine. A referendum should be democratically done monitored by neutral organizations. The same process for Crimea.
But there is a political problem to come with challenging the Ukrainian President, it's possible that citizens will not fancy having fought and paid a lot of taxes since 2014 to let the DNR and Crimea go.
The Snake Island should be given back, that's very important.

One thing is sure, the future of Ukraine is not demilitarized but militarizing.  When you have an abusive person in the surrounding you don't want to hear "I want you to be permanently handcuffed, I will feel more secure" so in the end this person can torture you and abuse you in any manner and anytime. 

[Patagonie]

This doesn't correspond to what has happened in Lviv.
Russia apparently uses long range missiles launched from their planes still in Russian territory.
So they could do the same with respect to bombing central Kyiv.

They have used their long-range missiles most of the time for military objectives, especially in Lviv.
With the artillery they are gunning everything, many villages and cities had been destroyed sometimes entirely.

[Patagonie]

More on the idea that majority of Russians support the terrorist invasion of Ukraine.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/

I do agree 100% with what is written.
The West believes that the revolution will come from the inside with the sanctions. But Russians are very resilient and the propaganda fits them like a glove.
In 2014 America pushed Saudi Arabia to produce a lot of oil on the market so the barrel failed at around $50. That really hurt Russia.
But today Europe is daily pouring the Russian budget.

[2tallbill]

Baba Yaga aka Hillary Clinton has slithered back on the scene
and of course has advice on what to do about Russia. Maybe
she needs a little more Uranium One money?

Hillary Clinton says 'More' can be done to hurt Putin, help
Ukraine: 'Double down'
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/clinton-more-can-be-done-to-hurt-putin-help-ukraine-we-have-to-double-down



In Slavic folklore, Baba Yaga, also spelled Baba Jaga (from Polish) is a
supernatural being (or one of a trio of sisters of the same name) who
appears as a deformed and/or ferocious-looking woman. In fairy tales
Baba Yaga flies around in a mortar, wields a pestle, and dwells deep in
the forest in a hut usually described as standing on chicken legs.

[krimster2]

Beel, I've seen ACTUAL Babas in orthodox church in Kyiv walking in counter clock-wise circles...
Kyiv Babas mainly live in Podil, cuz they like the "vibe" there
Hillary ain't one of em
and not all Babas are bad...
and not all Babas are equal in power

I would not count on a Coup d'état  from Russian people angry over the price of sugar to topple Pootin…
and I would not count on the West to militarily engage Russia over Ukraine

best strategy for dealin with Pootin is to do what we’re already doing
bleed Russia as much as possible with military and economic losses
so that Pootin’s own calculations for the future shows that he can’t afford it…

watch “The Death of Stalin”
this is how Pootin will leave power, he’s nearly 70 yrs old
I don’t know anyone in Russia that old anymore
couple years from now, I could find work in a Russian Circus as an old guy
and can work in the Freak Show section, cuz old people in Russia REALLY are freaks!!
and people will pay just to look at em

[ML]

Zelensky asks former German and French leaders Merkel and Sarkozy to visit Bucha, Ukraine to see the outcome of 14 years of concessions to Russia.

See with your own eyes the tortured and slain Ukrainians," Zelensky said.

Irpin, Bucha, Hostomelm and the entire Kyiv region were recently liberated from Russian invaders. Mass killings of Ukrainian civilians by Russians have been recorded in liberated towns and villages. In particular, a mass grave was discovered in Bucha, with almost 300 bodies buried in it, while dozens of bodies were seen laying in the streets, some with their hands tied.

http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3447795-zelensky-invites-merkel-sarkozy-to-bucha-to-look-at-results-of-concessions-to-russia.html

http://www.gamingdeputy.com/zelensky-invited-merkel-and-sarkozy-to-bucha-ukraine-former-ussr-lenta-ru/

[2tallbill]

I would not count on a Coup d'état  from Russian people angry
over the price of sugar to topple Pootin…and I would not count
on the West to militarily engage Russia over Ukraine

I agree on all both points

[Intrepid Traveler]

No, I disagree with your assessment.  First, supplying weaponry, and strength is not "micromanaging".  Russians need to understand that any war in Ukraine is going to be prolonged, and bloody, and could very well spill into Russia.  When Russian civilians start dying the way Ukrainian civilians have been, the war will end sooner.


Second, you completely misunderstand Western Ukrainians.  They are far more likely to want zero capitulation on territory.


Not really.  His clique all support this war.

[Patagonie]

Journalists from RT, total pro-Russian media, now forbidden.

[ML]

Journalists from RT, total pro-Russian media, now forbidden.

Forbidden where ?