2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[BC]

Moby,

You know the old saying 'You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make it drink.'

There is no way to make folks drink around here so why do you insist they do so all the time, very often in an insulting manner?

This is what I interpreted from Gator's remark earlier in this thread.

Post your ideas and thoughts in a constructive manner and leave it at that is my suggestion.

 

[BC]

BACK TO DISCUSSION OF VACCINES

The most important discussion regarding vaccines is :  "What do we do until a vaccine is declared effective, safe and has been distributed?"

Obviously the current situation can't continue as is or?   

[msmob]

Post your ideas and thoughts in a constructive manner and leave it at that is my suggestion.

 

You mean like your exchange with GQB ?

Look, Phil gives as good as he gets and whether he shares the same opinion, I think we'd get on in reality ..and he shouldn't get so butt-hurt about being corrected.


All the same , I will try to be kinder

[BC]

You mean like your exchange with GQB ?

I have no issues with that exchange.  Of course I'm nowhere near perfect but have my responses been insulting or otherwise uncouth or vindictive?  I do consciously try to keep my replies somwhat within 'normal' bounds.

[msmob]

Of course I'm nowhere near perfect but have my responses been insulting or otherwise uncouth or vindictive?  I do consciously try to keep my replies somwhat within 'normal' bounds.

*I* thought the exchange with GQB was out of order, but not on your side.

I think when someone calls you a worm ( or similar) when you point out they've got it WRONG re a drug ( HCQ) others needed for a purpose that actually worked and was involved in suggesting I 'hacked the forum' can expect short shrift

Gator was a gentleman and apologised

[BC]

*I* thought the exchange with GQB was out of order, but not on your side.

That's quite ok.  I try to not inherit a bad hair day from others.

[Gator]

..and he shouldn't get so butt-hurt about being corrected.

I admit when I am wrong, something impossible for you to do.¹

Yesterday's three examples: 

1.  You claimed "herd immunity" is a myth.   I gave you a renown medical science source confirming  the concept (Mayo Clinic); you gave me none to support your lame thinking.  Herd immunity is real; the problem with herd immunity is getting there (60-70% infection levels).  Where is your scientific source?  You don't have one, do you.

2.  Regarding your comment about Trump and Fauci - wrong.   You should not depend on a biased news media constantly criticizing Trump.  Fauci remains a key part of the White House team.    Trump chastised the offender on his staff, even though that staff person alerted Trump to the pandemic before Fauci, prompting Trump's China traveler restrictions.  And Fauci misled the nation about masks.  And the issue regarding Fauci and HCQ is now in appellate court.   

3.  Regarding your comment stating a COVID-19 vaccine will not be developed.  As of today you are correct, yet you ignore the absolutely huge, warp speed  development program now underway.   I believe more than one effective vaccination protocol are coming.  Yes, my philosophy is "the sun will come out tomorrow."   Yes, I have problems with those who spout "life is a shit sandwich, and then you die."   

______________________________________________________________________
¹  Exhibited in our attested, precise wager about economic growth in Trump's first two years vs. Obama's final year, where you refused to admit  Trump's 2.5% and 3.1%  are better than Obama's 1.5%.  Numbers don't lie, do they 'little man.'

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24423.msg538159#msg538159

[Gator]

The most important discussion regarding vaccines is :  "What do we do until a vaccine is declared effective, safe and has been distributed?"

Obviously the current situation can't continue as is or?

That's the critical issue.   

I feel we have no choice but to keep the economy partially open and take measures to keep infections at an endemic level, albeit high, yet short of exponential growth.   Our people will not accept total lockdown. And our nation's capabilities in tracing and isolating of the vulnerable/infected are not effective in eliminating the spread.   

Even testing is problematic.  Info now comes out that shows the test statistics compiled by Florida are  over-reporting "positives" and under-reporting "negatives."  An investigation is underway.

[msmob]

I admit when I am wrong, something impossible for you to do.¹

Yesterday's three examples: 

1.  You claimed "herd immunity" is a myth.   I gave you a renown medical science source confirming  the concept (Mayo Clinic); you gave me none to support your lame thinking.  Herd immunity is real; the problem with herd immunity is getting there (60-70% infection levels).  Where is your scientific source?  You don't have one, do you.

Sighs, I have offered lay man's explanations - several times to explain the notion of 'herd immunity'

AGAIN.. let's take Stockholm in Sweden.. 

1/ What is the percentage of population there showing antibodies present ? Under eight percent - a clear FAIL on the numbers front, Phil...

2/ How long does the presence of anti-bodies give one immunity from the Common Cold .. a Corona Virus ? ... 


So much for 'example 1' ... But can you acknowledge your mistake there ?

 

2.  Regarding your comment about Trump and Fauci - wrong.   You should not depend on a biased news media constantly criticizing Trump.  Fauci remains a key part of the White House team.    Trump chastised the offender on his staff, even though that staff person alerted Trump to the pandemic before Fauci, prompting Trump's China traveler restrictions.  And Fauci misled the nation about masks.  And the issue regarding Fauci and HCQ is now in appellate court.   

Again, I like your Dr Fauci - as he learns stuff he acknowledges same and isn't afraid to suggest otherwise.  Masks ? Unless they are respirators and / or one wears a face visor .. pretty much a gesture .. given the virus molecules are far smaller that the coverings.  But I'd wear one in an enclosed space or if decreed mandatory in the jurisdiction I'm in..

Watching the 'brown-nosing' of Trampu's' aides re attempting to diss Dr Fauci is stomach churning

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/15/dr-fauci-donald-trump-attacks-covid-19

'Trampu' keeps down-playing COVID-10 despite the numbers of new cases and the 'We told you so' message that those with any common sense must be realising ( hint: opening up too early )

   

3.  Regarding your comment stating a COVID-19 vaccine will not be developed.  As of today you are correct, yet you ignore the absolutely huge, warp speed  development program now underway.   I believe more than one effective vaccination protocol are coming.  Yes, my philosophy is "the sun will come out tomorrow."   Yes, I have problems with those who spout "life is a shit sandwich, and then you die."   

I'm not 'glass half full', Phil .. just working with smarter people in the medical field on a daily basis ...  No harm in believing, but base it on science.


To cap it all .. you post a message you told us was 'gone' ( I had hacked it and apologised for same  ) where YOU suggest I accepted your 'criteria' for a bet...  *I* accepted on the basis of proving the UK and US economies were in total parallel recoveries - irrespective of leader / political party ..  My point being macro economics was at play ..irrespective of policy.

Your 'proof' is simply demonstrating you're STILL not accepting you lost and I never agreed to your parameters.

 

[BillyB]

Masks ? Unless they are respirators and / or one wears a face visor .. pretty much a gesture .. given the virus molecules are far smaller that the coverings. 

You've been told people don't cough, sneeze or breathe out viruses but it still hasn't registered with you. They cough, sneeze, and breathe out water droplets which viruses ride on. Masks can stop most of those water droplets.


It's common sense from an infected person's mouth to yours, two filters are better than one or none yet a few months ago you were telling people masks are useless. If anybody still has doubts about masks, imagine this virus kills 100% of the people it infects. You'll change your mind about masks when going out in public because deep down you know the truth is it will help to some degree. But continue on telling people the wearing of masks is simply a gesture.

The most important discussion regarding vaccines is :  "What do we do until a vaccine is declared effective, safe and has been distributed?"

Obviously the current situation can't continue as is or?   

America is expected to have 52,000 deaths per week from all causes this time of year. As long as we aren't exceeding that, we will be fine. Getting back to living life and being productive, we are bound to have outbreaks in cities. We do not need to shut down the whole country anymore and need to take action where there are outbreaks.

[GQBlues]

….But continue on telling people the wearing of masks is simply a gesture.

That's actually a leap from the resident Googler who declared wearing N95 mask will choke a person after 30-minutes of use 'based' on information he gathered from the 'professional medical group' he supposedly hangs around with EVERYDAY.

LMAO!

msmob is the perfect of example of what happens to people who rely on surface information from Googled sources. There's a very obvious shallow level of comprehension they cannot go beyond. More times than not, they advance an 'opinion article' from a politically-driven media rag like the Guardian as the depth of their 'expertise' on any given subject.

His real life insecurities is always clearly displayed in his each and every post.

[GQBlues]

BACK TO DISCUSSION OF VACCINES

Whether or not any of these recently touted vaccine/s proved to be effective to any degree will undoubtedly have a very positive broad effect nationally at this time.

One thing is certain, if the vaccine proved 75% effective, the media will definitely sensationalize the 25% - at least until after the election. 

[Gator]

Sighs, I have offered lay man's explanations - several times to explain the notion of 'herd immunity'

You are not a scientist, and you have trouble explaining your position.  Rather than hurting my eyes, just name a scientific source equivalent to the Mayo Clinic proclaiming your viewpoint.

To make it clear, I am not suggesting the pursuit of herd immunity - so please don't label me that way.  Vaccines are the answer.

Watching the 'brown-nosing' of Trampu's' aides re attempting to diss Dr Fauci is stomach churning

The left-leaning Guardian!!!!  Why stop there. - CNN should have some juicier accusations.     

To make it clear, the White House has been and will continue to be an energetic place.  Through it all,, Fauci has remained, and he continues to participate as a valuable member of the COVID team.  .   
 

   

I'm not 'glass half full', Phil .. just working with smarter people in the medical field on a daily basis ...

It doesn't show. 

To make it clear, I believe neither. 

[krimster2]

I’ve actually paid money to get “The Vektor Vaccine” in Russia in September...
and have had extensive medical consultation about it...

I expect to have some mild symptoms, like a mild cold, after vaccination
I expect to quarantine for 30 days in a luxury suite with medical staff, and have my anti-bodies tested daily
after 30 days, I get a medical certificate that states my anti-body levels
and I am allowed to have free travel within Russia and get a special stamp on my visa...
also, I have been encouraged to give plasma on Russian TV for PR
along with donations of PPE in Putin’s name and patriotism

even after the vaccine, and even with a high anti-body count I will not have full immunity to Corona!

if there is a new mutation, my anti-bodies may not work against it....
also, the effectiveness of the anti-bodies begins to decrease almost immediately
and after 3 years will be almost non existent

I am hoping that the vaccine will allow me to attend my oldest daughter’s wedding in Moscow in October without getting infected and that’s about it.....

if I don’t get infected in Russia this fall/winter
even with the vaccine from there
I can easily get infected when I return to the USA
due to a combination of reduced anti-bodies and new strains

vaccines and herd immunity should help reduce the spread of the virus, but will not eliminate it completely
it's here to stay!

from now on, we are going to have a yearly Corona rate just like we have a yearly flu rate...
this number will start to stabilize in maybe 3 years or so....
but still probably number in the millions per year in the USA
a number we will have to learn to live with forever...

opening schools, is an attempt to reach herd immunity
especially, doing this right before flu season
I guarantee that opening schools will cause a new much higher peak at the end of September
which PURELY BY COINCIDENCE
also happens to be THE START OF FLU SEASON!!
which is the OPTIMUM environment for this virus!!


so I predict that in November and December
more Americans will get Corona
than in the period of February to October!!!!
we will probably have herd immunity levels of infection by then of  more than 70% or so testing positive vrs 23% today in Houston

but...
because 6 months from now, literally almost EVERYONE has already been exposed to Corona virus in the USA
there will be NO POINT to shutting down businesses any more!!!
so everything can stay open forever!!

yeah! Wall Street!
Thank you America for your sacrifices
the million dead

[Gator]

To cap it all .. you post a message you told us was 'gone' ( I had hacked it and apologised for same  ) where YOU suggest I accepted your 'criteria' for a bet...  *I* accepted on the basis of proving the UK and US economies were in total parallel recoveries - irrespective of leader / political party ..   

Yes you accepted, and a few days later you reminded me of the wager.  Each time, agreeing to specific terms about comparing Trump's economy with Obama's economy, not UK vs. US.

What were those SPECIFIC TERMS?

Returning to my position about how the economy has improved under Trump. Let's compare the following economic measures for two periods:  the four quarters  before Trump (4Q2015-3Q2016) vs. the post-Trump period (1Q2017-2Q2019).

In the same post, I next threw down the glove as follows.

This will take some work.  Are you game?  I agree to eat crow if these three all-important  haven't improved since the Obama period.  If wrong, will you return to the board with black feathers dangling from your lips?   

And you soon accepted, even quoting the same specific terms.

Returning to my position about how the economy has improved under Trump. Let's compare the following economic measures for two periods:  the four quarters  before Trump (4Q2015-3Q2016) vs. the post-Trump period (1Q2017-2Q2019).

GDP expansion rate
Job creation rate (or unemployment rate)
Inflation rate

This will take some work.  Are you game?  I agree to eat crow if these three all-important  haven't improved since the Obama period.  If wrong, will you return to the board with black feathers dangling from your lips?   

I am game.. please post the graphs

Where do you say you accept on the basis of comparing the UK and US economies.   It doesn't, does it.  The bet was comparing Trump vs. Obama, the same Obama whose recovery was slowing.


And a few days later, you reminded me of our wager, again quoting the same specific terms

Dear Gator,

Just to remind you ..I accepted the challenge.. and await graphs to 'support' your stance..

Again, at no point did we conflate the terms of the wager with a comparison of US vs. UK. 

YOU LOST.  IT IS TIME TO EAT CROW, OR WILL YOU STAY IN D-E-N-I-A-L.  You spend so much time on the River De Nile, it seems you would want to join the honorable.

[BillyB]

The left-leaning Guardian!!!!  Why stop there. - CNN should have some juicier accusations.     

To make it clear, the White House has been and will continue to be an energetic place.  Through it all,, Fauci has remained, and he continues to participate as a valuable member of the COVID team. 
 

Fake News continues to try to make it look like there's a fight between Fauci and Trump. They are hurting the country in their attempt to bring Trump down. Fauci said Trump always listened to his advice. He said he's not meeting Trump as often because Trump is focused on economy. Fauci also gave a recent interview saying "It's pretty tough walking a tightrope while trying to get your message out and people are trying to pit you against the president. It's very stressful."

I’ve actually paid money to get “The Vektor Vaccine” in Russia in September...
and have had extensive medical consultation about it...

Russia is working hard to get you a high quality vaccine

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/us-uk-and-canada-say-russia-trying-to-steal-coronavirus-vaccine-data.html

[BC]

That's the critical issue. 

Are we adequately addressing it? You do realize that as it stands today, a doubling of our deaths to a quarter million is almost certain, maybe even low? 

I feel we have no choice but to keep the economy partially open and take measures to keep infections at an endemic level, albeit high, yet short of exponential growth.

   

We can't 'keep infections at an endemic level' if they are on the rise as we may already be in rapid exponential growth and not know about it until down the road.  Considering this isn't it prudent to react while we can?

Our people will not accept total lockdown. And our nation's capabilities in tracing and isolating of the vulnerable/infected are not effective in eliminating the spread.

   

And locking down is our only true defense at this point.  Unfortunately we don't want to realize it.  The house is burning and we're still trying to figure out whether to call the fire dept?

Even testing is problematic.  Info now comes out that shows the test statistics compiled by Florida are  over-reporting "positives" and under-reporting "negatives."  An investigation is underway.

Testing has always been problematic it seems. Why after so many months are we not able to get a grip on this vitally important aspect of managing the crisis while touting 'The most, the best, the most accurate in the world!'?  Ditto with reporting of deaths.  Why all the confusion?

Gotta admit Gator, we're rapidly spiralling out of control, if not 'there' already.

[msmob]

That's actually a leap from the resident Googler who declared wearing N95 mask will choke a person after 30-minutes of use 'based' on information he gathered from the 'professional medical group' he supposedly hangs around with EVERYDAY.

LMAO!

msmob is the perfect of example of what happens to people who rely on surface information from Googled sources. There's a very obvious shallow level of comprehension they cannot go beyond. More times than not, they advance an 'opinion article' from a politically-driven media rag like the Guardian as the depth of their 'expertise' on any given subject.

His real life insecurities is always clearly displayed in his each and every post.

GQB,

Why do you repeat fibs you've already been busted for ?

I NEVER said "you'd 'choke'" .. I DID say you might suffer breathing difficulties with prolonged use and published an article by a US doctor that demonstrated that I was wrong ..She wore hers all day ...not comfortable, but oxygen levels remained fine.

This is now the THIRD time I've corrected your lying...   I suspect this may be because you're butt-hurt re the efficacy of HCQ re treating COVID-19 patients... FAIL

Your constant need to make stuff up to 'support' your 'contentions' is telling

The Guardian is not a 'rag'..  It has a left of centre editorial, but carries stories that embarrass the left, too. 

[fathertime]

America is expected to have 52,000 deaths per week from all causes this time of year. As long as we aren't exceeding that, we will be fine. 

Have we been exceeding the 52,000 deaths a week?   I read 940 died yesterday in the USA. 
In the scheme of things some might say 52,000 deaths or 59,000 deaths, a week, what is the difference?  Of course the numbers could wind up being much greater still. 

Fathertime! 

[Gator]

Are we adequately addressing it? You do realize that as it stands today, a doubling of our deaths to a quarter million is almost certain, maybe even low? 

Doubling is still well under a million.  Yes it sounds crass, given we are talking about the tragedy of real lives lost.
However, it is an acceptable loss in my book given the options.
   

We can't 'keep infections at an endemic level' if they are on the rise as we may already be in rapid exponential growth and not know about it until down the road.  Considering this isn't it prudent to react while we can?

I leave it to CDC, et al to decide if the hospitals can manage the wave.  Houston is now a critical case.  Remember NYC in March-April?  The Feds delivered a hospital ship and converted a convention center into a mammoth hospital for overflow.   The two went unused.
   

And locking down is our only true defense at this point.  Unfortunately we don't want to realize it.  The house is burning and we're still trying to figure out whether to call the fire dept?

The house has pockets of smoke, and yes there is damage.  Fire fighters have been deployed.  Federal oversight is engaged.  Inhabitants need not vacate the house, yet need to avoid the burning areas and take precautions if they must venture there. 

Testing has always been problematic it seems. Why after so many months are we not able to get a grip on this vitally important aspect of managing the crisis while touting 'The most, the best, the most accurate in the world!'?  Ditto with reporting of deaths.  Why all the confusion?

An investigation is underway in Florida.  The reasons likely are many.  I believe none smack of incompetence, and all are problems with the rapid ramping up.  How well did the Obamacare website work when it opened, and that was just a website?

Reporting:  Getting results is still taking three days in FL.  Too long IMO. 

Compiling:   Tests are complied from hundreds of labs who presumably are working seven days per week.   However, FL's daily reports vary from 50,000 to 100,000 tests when I would assume the actual daily number is fairly constant with a trend upward.  Something is amiss.

Double counting:  Some patients are being tested 5-6 times, and each is reported as a "positive case."

Under reporting:  Some labs did not report negative tests. 

Everything else:  Use your imagination.  That's just testing, and you mentioned how classification and reporting of deaths  is also suspect.  I hope politics is not a factor. 

  Gotta admit Gator, we're rapidly spiralling out of control, if not 'there' already.

The number of reported positive cases is an overstatement of the situation, yet it is becoming worse. Hospitalizations and deaths are showing an upward trend in my home Florida.  IMO "out of control" is an overstatement, yet  I venture out less.  My son more in his work (real estate appraiser in high demand market given refi's at 3% for 30-yr fixed).  It requires him to enter existing homes for inspection, so he and I don't meet.  If I see a younger person without a mask, I run away.

[BC]

Doubling is still well under a million.  Yes it sounds crass, given we are talking about the tragedy of real lives lost.
However, it is an acceptable loss in my book given the options.

You do realize this would put the US far ahead of Italy and most other countries with deaths per million population?
   

I leave it to CDC, et al to decide if the hospitals can manage the wave.  Houston is now a critical case.  Remember NYC in March-April?  The Feds delivered a hospital ship and converted a convention center into a mammoth hospital for overflow.   The two went unused.

I thought CDC was no longer receiving hospital data... or?  Also remember that NY locked down and stayed home for the prolonged period necessary for infections to drop.  Their infections graphic looks much the same as ours indicating the effectiveness of the measurs they implemented.  I doubt any of the most affected states nowadays expects to follow suit to such an extent.
   

The house has pockets of smoke, and yes there is damage.  Fire fighters have been deployed.  Federal oversight is engaged.  Inhabitants need not vacate the house, yet need to avoid the burning areas and take precautions if they must venture there. 

With an invisible wind we cannot even feel blowing the flames and embers across the nation..   Federal oversight?  I thought that was back to the states now to determine their own actions, like IIRC Georgia who is suing Atlanta for mandating the use of masks.

There seems to be much reticence to take the threat seriously.  This is very disturbing and only amplifies the inability of our leaders to manage such crises and motivate our population to take prudent efforts to mitigate, not only for themselves but others as well.

An investigation is underway in Florida.  The reasons likely are many.  I believe none smack of incompetence, and all are problems with the rapid ramping up.  How well did the Obamacare website work when it opened, and that was just a website?

Was Obamacare a crisis of this magnitude?  Did hundreds of thousands die because a website was temporarily out of order?  I sense you are grasping at straws my friend.

Reporting:  Getting results is still taking three days in FL.  Too long IMO. 

Compiling:   Tests are complied from hundreds of labs who presumably are working seven days per week.   However, FL's daily reports vary from 50,000 to 100,000 tests when I would assume the actual daily number is fairly constant with a trend upward.  Something is amiss.

Double counting:  Some patients are being tested 5-6 times, and each is reported as a "positive case."

Under reporting:  Some labs did not report negative tests. 

Everything else:  Use your imagination.  That's just testing, and you mentioned how classification and reporting of deaths  is also suspect.  I hope politics is not a factor. 

We have some of the greatest data acquisition, storage and distribution structures along with plenty of qualified folks available to us.  It is absolutely preposterous we can get out sh~t together on this.

The number of reported positive cases is an overstatement of the situation, yet it is becoming worse. Hospitalizations and deaths are showing an upward trend in my home Florida.  IMO "out of control" is an overstatement, yet  I venture out less.  My son more in his work (real estate appraiser in high demand market given refi's at 3% for 30-yr fixed).  It requires him to enter existing homes for inspection, so he and I don't meet.  If I see a younger person without a mask, I run away.

Fear is a terrible thing Gator, and we have no one other than ourselves to blame for the state we are in.

[BillyB]

Have we been exceeding the 52,000 deaths a week?   I read 940 died yesterday in the USA. 
In the scheme of things some might say 52,000 deaths or 59,000 deaths, a week, what is the difference?  Of course the numbers could wind up being much greater still. 

Fathertime!

America should be averaging 52,000 deaths from all causes at this time of year. We are averaging less than that even with COVID-19 raging. Why? Because we changed our behavior by being less active, engaging in social distancing and taking extra steps protecting the elderly, we have less deaths from injuries and other illnesses. Save this chart below.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard

   
I thought CDC was no longer receiving hospital data... or? 

A few days ago Fake News NY Times broke the story to give people the impression the White House wants total control and will manipulate the numbers to make Trump look good. The White House does want COVID-19 data faster so they can make decisions on ventilators and where to take action instead of having the data pass through numerous hands. CDC won't control the data but they will still post it.

http://www.livescience.com/hhs-will-bypass-cdc-covid19-data-collection.html

[BC]

CDC won't control the data but they will still post it.

http://www.livescience.com/hhs-will-bypass-cdc-covid19-data-collection.html

Indeed.  After CDC stopped posting data and folks raised objections, they started posting again.  We'll see.

I'm all for faster and better data and don't really like the way CDC does it, but at least it was a stable and consistent baseline source.

[BillyB]

CDC never stopped getting data even for the short time they stopped posting. They can't do their job without data. If an Obama White House wanted the data faster, there wouldn't be objections. There would be praise for the good decision.

[BC]

Best to finish building a bridge before blocking the old one.