2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[2tallbill]

Let's check back towards the end of the year and see who has
been closer to the actual results before throwing hissy fits.

Great Idea, why don't you make your prediction and others can make their
prediction(s) and we can check back and see who had the best insights
or luckiest guesses.

I started a thread here so predictions will be easier to find

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?action=post2;start=0;board=18

[2tallbill]

You tell me 2Tall what is working and what is not...

You look at one factor and it's really important, deaths and illness.
I am not trying to diminish that important data point. You are not
looking at the hit that it will put on the economy. Italy could freeze
all economic activity and kill their economy and save even more lives.

You are not considering what would happen if Italy ended up crippling
their economy for the next ten years because we don't know how bad,
how long or what the cost will be. 

If I had the answer I would come out and say it. I don't know the solution.
I don't have the proper mix or formulation of what the ideal response would
be. As of today there have been 124K US covid deaths.

I do know that the USA is currently having Great Depression level
unemployment and that we can't sustain that. If the US dollar crashes
the World economy will crash as well. The last Great Depression took
10 years then a world war costing 85 million lives to recover from.

I doubt that Covid has the same potential for harm.

[Gator]

I do know that the USA is currently having Great Depression level
unemployment and that we can't sustain that.

From the Washington Post reporting IMF's Managing Director announcement  today:

No major economy is escaping the pandemic. The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, is expected to shrink this year by 8 percent. Countries that use the single European currency are headed for a decline of more than 10 percent while Japanese output will fall by 5.8 percent, the IMF said.

The Chinese economy, suffering the twin ravages of the pandemic and the trade war with the United States, is projected to eke out just a 1 percent gain — its worst performance in several decades.

[BC]

Many variables to consider besides morbidity.   

The actual total number of US cases of COVID-19 (tested and non-tested) now is believed by scientists to be about the same as in April.  The smaller number of tests in April meant many cases went undetected. 

The most important variable is "deaths."  Because of evolutionary progression, less fatal strains of the virus should be more dominant today.  Because deaths lag detection of infection,  the next 2 weeks are important to understand a) the trajectory of the spreading and b) whether case fatality rate is indeed lower as expected.     

Of course, another variable to consider is the economy, as the policy decisions involved tradeoffs.     
 

Gator,

Indeed many variables, lets look at some of them and recap the situation.

In Italy, most elderly live in their family homes.  Those requiring higher levels of support are in hospitals where general medicine wards are approx 60% elderly.  This is a minus as hospitals are great places for for community spread.

In Italy, greetings are close physical contact, cheek kissing between all genders and ages.  This is a big minus and grand spreader.

In Italy, the population is older than many other countries.  Another minus.

Italy was the first western nation experiencing high death rates from totally overwhelmed hospitals in the north.  We were not prepared nor had much time to react. A deficit with critical care beds, equipment, materials, 20-30% of doctors and healthcare workers infected.  A big minus.

Despite all these challenges, today we can say that the 45-day strict lockdown and 45 days of nationally planned and staged reopening among other mitigation efforts has been very effective, but resulting in 35,000, or 573 deaths per million. 

Today the risk of getting infected with COVID is very low and most aspects of life have very much returned to normal aside from simple mitigation mainly consisting of dwindling mask usage, disinfecting/washing hands and without typical kissing when greeting family and friends. 

The US on the other hand:

A very large elderly population in homes representing a big minus.

A younger population - a plus

Testing problems during the first months - a big minus.

Late and haphazard implementation of mitigation efforts along with no national policy - a big minus.

Healthcare capacity and time to set up additional capacity - a plus

Warning/preparation lead time - a huge plus

Vast economic resources - a huge plus


Despite huge and obvious advantages, the virus is very much 'alive and well' in the US.  Hastened, lapsed, and abandoned mitigation efforts are now leading to widespread infections on a greater scale than was experienced initially with a huge risk of truly unhindered exponential growth.

All this has resulted in 376 deaths per million, adding an average of 10 deaths per million per week with the potential for more.  By the end of the year, even without the growth, we are experiencing, the death per million rate will equal or exceed that of Italy.  As it stands today, by the end of the year we may well be looking at numbers of deaths exceeding 250,000.  Furthermore, economic recovery under these circumstances will take much longer, increasing in length until the magic bullet arrives and can be implemented.  Realistically speaking well into next year if not longer.

The major difference between Italy and the US lies with the priority set by each.  Italy prioritized beating the virus, and the US prioritized 'saving' the economy.

It is sad, that we in the US had the potential to knock out this virus cold, but did not do so.  We lost valuable time and ignored the valuable experience of others.  In very simple terms we put the cart before the horse and will suffer the consequences of more deaths per million than Italy we so highly criticized, and a much longer and deeper economic crisis.

It is difficult, even impossible to justify or rationalize the obviously lacking results to date - and those we will experience going forward.

[BC]

Great Idea, why don't you make your prediction and others can make their
prediction(s) and we can check back and see who had the best insights
or luckiest guesses.

I started a thread here so predictions will be easier to find

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?action=post2;start=0;board=18

Why start another thread?  I like killing two birds with one stone    But ok will look at it and copy my last post.

[msmob]

Beel, if it's not too late to edit ..

Your link to your offshoot thread ( to me ) leads to a cul de sac

 

[BillyB]

BC, America is like 50 nations. While NY had their outbreak, most of the rest of the States started theirs at a later time. The chart is going to remain flat for awhile. The key is that we never have an outbreak in any area that exceeds the health care capacity of that area. We can minimize deaths as long as we don't overload hospitals. Spread is going to happen. Deaths are going to happen. All that will continue to happen until we can rid this virus from our bodies.

[BC]

You look at one factor and it's really important, deaths and illness.
I am not trying to diminish that important data point. You are not
looking at the hit that it will put on the economy. Italy could freeze
all economic activity and kill their economy and save even more lives.

You are not considering what would happen if Italy ended up crippling
their economy for the next ten years because we don't know how bad,
how long or what the cost will be. 

Bottom line 2Tall is that Italy didn't need to do these things and beat the virus at it's own game, with good chances of surviving well until the time a magic bullet arrives, or even if it does not.

If I had the answer I would come out and say it. I don't know the solution.
I don't have the proper mix or formulation of what the ideal response would
be. As of today there have been 124K US covid deaths.

I do know that the USA is currently having Great Depression level
unemployment and that we can't sustain that. If the US dollar crashes
the World economy will crash as well. The last Great Depression took
10 years then a world war costing 85 million lives to recover from.

I doubt that Covid has the same potential for harm.

All a matter of priorities and planning 2Tall..  Our misguided priorities, piss poor planning and non-existent follow-through is not only killing more of us than our neighbours and peers but also prolonging economic recovery which raises risk of further economic destruction.  We had a huge economic crisis because folks could not pay their mortgages, is the outlook any better today?

We have and still have all the answers right in front of us, unfortunately, filtered by our rosy pink eyeglasses.

[BC]

The chart is going to remain flat for awhile.

The virus does not respect borders Billy, and the chart is rising, and will keep rising.  The only unknown factor is how far will it rise.  I expect 50k+ infections per day within 2 weeks.

Bottom line we're not doing anything about it and are allowing the virus to 'rule'.

[edit]  Expounding on this a bit and expanding the borders beyond just Italy with EU as more peer to peer comparison.  This despite 'disaster Italy', 'disaster Spain', 'disaster UK', 'disaster Belgium.. and on and on..



Ok ok.... you say deaths count as well as infections (being preemptive here).  The US is well on the way to 'trump' EU deaths as well. Very 'SAD' on so many levels.



http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

[msmob]

BillyB, what part of that chart BC posted looks 'flat' to you ?

The US is spiking..the question you need to ask is WHY ?

*I*  suggest too many daft politicians have pushed too early for easing restrictions and a lot of people went onto the streets en masse, even earlier than BLM to protest at an unsuitable moment .

The UK saw an uptick in the seven day rolling average for deaths yesterday..  May be we'll have the same issue .. For sure, I see a lot of people seem to be behaving like this was over ...

[BC]

Your link to your offshoot thread ( to me ) leads to a cul de sac

ditto

[BillyB]

BillyB, what part of that chart BC posted looks 'flat' to you ?

From Apr. 4 to June 24. There's a few up and downs but it's pretty much flat.

The US is spiking..the question you need to ask is WHY ?

While NY and a few other states are on the downtrend, other states are on the uptrend so America's line will remain flat. Many states are allowing people to go back to work lifting the stay at home order and that will increase infections but as long as we don't exceed our health care capabilities, we'll be fine. Nations must go back to work. If they are bankrupt, there won't be money for health care and things will collapse. We're more educated now about the virus's behavior so we can better determine the fine line between working and staying at home. If a certain area is predicted to have an outbreak, they can order people in that area to stay at home again.

[msmob]

I'm afraid this is yet another case of BillyB's 'patriotism' blinding himself to reality

Since 8th June your  'flat' curve has been on an upward trend re new infections ..USA as a whole..

Spin on ..

[BillyB]

Here you go Moby

http://serc.carleton.edu/mathyouneed/graphing/bestfit.html

[msmob]

Indeed.. now try putting your info into practice from June 8th on my graph, or stop digging !

[ML]

Covid will continue in USA and even rise due to absolute stupidity.

In adjoining county, 12 students who had graduated High School went on trip to Myrtle Beach and brought back Covid with them.  More than 12 had gone.

Those 12 then infected family and others, so within a week there were 30 new cases.

I think situations like this are ripe for lawsuits charging reckless behavior that led to injury to others (outside the families).

[2tallbill]

Why start another thread?  I like killing two birds with one stone    But ok will look at it and copy my last post.

This thread is 37 pages and your last post didn't lay out much in
predictions. This thread could go on to be many pages more and
finding what you predicted a year or more in the future would be
lost.

[2tallbill]

Beel, if it's not too late to edit ..

Your link to your offshoot thread ( to me ) leads to a cul de sac

Yes, too late to edit and you are correct that my link lead to a
bridge to nowhere.

This link should work
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24421.0

[GQBlues]

Covid will continue in USA and even rise due to absolute stupidity.

In adjoining county, 12 students who had graduated High School went on trip to Myrtle Beach and brought back Covid with them.  More than 12 had gone.

Those 12 then infected family and others, so within a week there were 30 new cases.

I think situations like this are ripe for lawsuits charging reckless behavior that led to injury to others (outside the families).

12!?! What about the thousands of snowflakes that protested, rioted, looted and establish 'summer of love' zones along with the statue toppling squads all over the country?

[2tallbill]

Bottom line 2Tall is that Italy didn't need to do these things and beat the virus at it's own game, with good chances of surviving well until the time a magic bullet arrives, or even if it does not.

I didn't know that CoronaV has been fixed. Bravo

All a matter of priorities and planning 2Tall..  Our misguided priorities, piss poor planning and non-existent follow-through is not only killing more of us than our neighbours and peers but also prolonging economic recovery which raises risk of further economic destruction. 

As with all things this heath crisis was planned for by the guys who
were in charge of the last health Crisis. You see governments aren't
nimble entities. They have to get funding from Congress years in
advance.

This crisis was planned for by team Obama and the people in place
are also from team Obama. Nobody knew what to expect and you
can tell by all the reports that change from day to day.

We had a huge economic crisis because folks could not pay their mortgages, is the outlook any better today?

We had a huge economic crisis because left wing groups like ACORN and
the Democrats forced Banks to loan money to people who couldn't repay
it and Weak Sisters like GW Bush didn't want to spend the political capital
to fix it before it crashed and burned.

Democrats like Jamie Gorelick,  got rich cooking the books at  Fannie Mae₁,
just like she got rich cooking the books with the VA scandal₂. Liberals don't
look to the actual problems of having corrupt lefty leaders in office, they tend
to blame capitalism instead.

Also don't forget that Gorelick was also the brainchild building a wall between
the FBI and the CIA that allowed 9-11 to happen₃. Then in an
amazing bit of luck Gorelick was appointed on the 9/11 commission itself.

The problem with the left has always been corruption and incompetence
and then identifying or inventing the wrong boogeyman.


1. http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/washington-lawyer-who-bad-penny-always-turns/
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Health_Administration_scandal_of_2014#Merit_pay_bonuses_&_previous_reports_of_preventable_deaths
3. http://911research.fandom.com/wiki/The_Gorelick_Wall

[BC]

Oyez! Oyez! Oyez! 2Tall declares it is everybody else's fault!

The only problem with The Plan that was left by the prior administration is that this administration ignored it.

See posts on this way back somewhere...

Don't make yourself look rediculous 2Tall..

[Gator]

The only problem with The Plan that was left by the prior administration is that this administration ignored it.

Let us await a non-partisan investigation after the pandemic has ended.  Until then, it is fruitless to debate given the advocacy that infects all news reporting. 

As of today, we still have no idea how and when this will end. 

[msmob]

But you do have a clue who closed down bodies to deal with virus pandemics and we have seen the 'wise advice' the US President has handed out...from how quickly the virus would be gone to the efficacy of meds to combat its effects..

[BillyB]

The only problem with The Plan that was left by the prior administration is that this administration ignored it.

Trump had to ignore it. Obama allowed only the CDC to make test kits. Trump allowed States to hire private companies. Obama's plan wasn't suitable to handle the pathogen of the century which is predicted to show up once every century.

[BC]

As of today, we still have no idea how and when this will end.

We do however know how to manage well and in relative safety until we do find a way to make it end.  Takes a lot of work and perseverance, but definitely doable. We even have proof in the pudding: