The Struggle For Ukraine

[krimster2]

go have a pint!!!

[Trenchcoat]

Back on track with the title of this  thread .


Regarding the AFU counter-offensive,and the total liberated area in the south is now 179.5 square km.


I'm not sure where these liberated areas of the south are coming from because i thought the AFU had liberated all the southern areas on the west bank of the Dnipro river when they liberated the city of Kherson. ?


Are these newly liberated areas on the east bank of the Dnipro river..toward Melitopol and Berdyansk ,or around the Zaporizhzhia area.?


Tougher going in the east,with the total area now liberated standing at 31 square km.


These figures come from Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine Hanna Maliar.

From a map I saw a day or so ago most of the retaken areas were either south towards Melitopol or east towards Donetsk. I don't think there was any east of Kherson (the river there) looks like blowing the dam put pay to any advancement there just one big swamp.

So yeah the areas on the map signified as retaken weren't huge in terms of in comparison to the land the Russians still hold. They seem closest to Donetsk but even that looks like a bit of ground to cover before being in contention for it. That would be a big win for Ukraine as it's kind of a rebel stronghold. The rest of the wins towards Melitopol looked small gains in comparison to what they would need to get up to those cities but theoretically it could add up over the days and weeks if they keep advancing. Main thing is at the moment the gains though they sound a fair bit aren't really all that much when you see it illustrated on a map. Mostly the AFU seems to have retaken farmland, villages and chicken coops. So some chickens will now end up chicken kyiv's the rest will end up chicken kiev's

Looks like also Putler isn't allowing out any grain shipments this year either probably due to Turkey etc not keeping to agreements it had with Russia (azov battalion, etc). So guess Ukraine will have to transport whatever it can through EU countries instead.

[Trenchcoat]

go have a pint!!!

In progress

[Grumpy]

 Tips for Russians evacuating Crimea,

 
@Gerashchenko_en
Russian tourist chats are full of panicked Russians who did not get the vacation they desired. I've translated some of their posts below.
-—
"Important information for those who are going to get out of Crimea by land route. The most important thing is to stock up on the necessary amount of water. Local "entrepreneurs" decided to take advantage of this situation and in order to enrich themselves increased the price by 8-10 times!
-—
Being on the territory of Crimea download offline maps, on the territory of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk regions, you can use mobile communication only if you have a SIM-card Phoenix, but there is an option to buy it right in the queue in front of the checkpoint, there they sell them for 2000 rubles.
-—
The situation with toilets is also miserable, free toilets at petrol stations have been closed, they justify themselves by saying that the influx of people is too large, you can make an agreement for 500 roubles, for children, pregnant women, disabled people and participants of the SMO the price is 400 roubles".
-—
"The first border has been passed. Customs. We fuelled up at the last Lukoil petrol station, but there are no toilets there. There are big traffic jams in the opposite direction, towards Rostov. Documents and passports and child's birth certificate were checked at the checkpoint. At the customs there is a toilet and a lot of people on foot with their bags, their bags are checked there like at the airport. For those with cars, only the documents."

-—
"Why didn't they say they guarantee safety on the land road to Crimea, if they can't protect the Crimean bridge, and it's a 50/50 ride there?"
-—
"Yes, Megaphone [cellphone service provider] is completely dead, it doesn't show anything."
-—
"Just yesterday I was thinking what a moron one should be to go on holiday to Crimea now.Well, now the holiday will definitely be remembered when they go home through the front.They are disrupting the logistics of our military with traffic jams, stupid faggots."
-—
"One thing that annoys me is that after the first time, the competent authorities swore that ordinary people have nothing to fear, that now combat dolphins, medusas, shrimps and plankton guard the bridge 50 hours a day. F**k, how did that happen? !!!!!! Did they screw up again? !!!!!!!!"
-—
"Are there gas stations along the road in the new territories?"  SureBandits, too, not just gas stations".

[krimster2]

damn...
ukraine's offensive ain't gonna succeed (completely cut-off crimea)
and ukraine is gonna run outta ammo
proving that in the upcoming war with china with conventional weapons, we could't fight on the ground for more than a couple of months without the same happening
china can out produce us by 10-to-1 in military hardware
BUT...
depends on sea transport for all raw materials for this military industrial complex
diplomats and submarines will put an end to that and the military-industrial complex
a war with china ain't gonna be a land war
it's gonna be a naval and diplomatic and cyber attack war
but if that don't resolve things
then yeah, it might go to EMP weapons
can you say "Farraday Shield"? I even have one on my lawnmower, and it's the push kind, that's how many Farraday Shields I have, my Farraday Shields even have shields
and i'm thinkin about puttin shields on them to

but you think the drone makers in odesa ever think about that?
apparently not...WTF....
Ukraine is going through 1,000 drones per day
average life span of a drone is less than 2 missions
the fields of ukraine are littered with drone debris
Julie Andrews is in fatigues and singin, "the hills are alive...with the sound of drones fly-ing"

can you imagine choreographing a musical about the Russo-Ukrainian war
you gotta put the 1812 overture in there somewhere
but when and by whom will the moment of triumph be revealed?
so far the play has kept that detail well hidden
cuz to me it looks like EVERYBODY is losing


so what does game theory say about zero sum games where both partys lose
in terms of achieving an optimal outcome
hint: chapter 7 of "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior" by J. Von Neuman

the goal is to force Russia to negotiate due to losses and denied of any hope of achieving victory
which means Ukraine IS gonna have to give up "something"

but this process won't start until late winter this year...
putin would like to have a deal by March 1, at the latest
the "March Surprize"

and if RasPootin can't pull this off
then his very last hope is to put a republican in the white house in november

how ya think he's gonna pull that off?

update:
since midnight only one lane is open on the kerch bridge
they alternate traffic directions
no heavy vehicles allowed
cars, vans, no 18 wheelers
all heavy traffic has to come by rail now
rail line was slightly damaged by the blast

[Trenchcoat]

Recent news article highlighting how Ukraine conflict's usage as a testing ground for the West's military equipment:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66229336

Over the past few decades little chance to test our gear against a enemy that could get anywhere near us on a technology level. A lot of Russia's stuff is old Soviet stuff but some of our stuff was better technology quality that was just a bit newer or better.

So a lot of our Challenger 2 tanks never saw stuff that might take it out as they were impervious to rpg's. Seems to be doing ok in Ukraine as no bad stories so far. The French tanks by comparison Ukraine no longer wants as they are too light on the armour and easily destroyed making tank crews unhappy about manning them.

So what we learn in Ukraine will or should shsoecoyr forces going forward.

Already it's looking like tanks are out and ground troops with hand held anti tank gear, etc are in. Artillery looks to be back in favour since the first time since WWII even though it feels old Skool. So it's really just going with what works and relegating what doesn't as well as improving on design and training an army around the new way of working as well as countering the enemy.

[krimster2]

in reality, Openheimer was more like Fred Rogers from Mr Roger's Neighborhood than Cillian Murphy (who is an Oirisch 'bad-ass')
watch the above video and then tell me how the ukrainian war is gonna end, horrosho

decisions that changed world history are always based on reducing reality to some simple calculation
if you know WHAT the calculation is - then you know the answer, and that leads you to know what decision is gonna be made
Rasputin is grappling with the same decision that Truman made with regard to the Atomic Bomb
a cost-benefit analysis


the collapse of the CCCP which began in 1991, isn't complete, until russia deteonates a new clear bomb in ukraine next year
then chechens and tatars will be runnin 'round the place with Taiga Tundra thumpers

ya'll gonna need 'my people' to deal with this
and I don't know if we're interested in 'your problems' unless there's somethin in it for us...
ain't no volunteers in my crew
we ain't yur Wagner Gopniks

Part Dva

Yet another mysterious death of a top-manager in Russia:
Anton Cherepennikov, owner of Russian IKS Holding, died. He was 40 years old. The preliminary cause of death, according to official sources, was a heart attack.

Cherepennikov's IKS Holding is the largest company in Russia in the area of informational security and operative-investigative systems (more commonly known as "wiretapping").

His company has been serving Russian law enforcement structures and controlled by them for a long time. It executed a lot of measures connected to "Yarovaya law" - requiring Internet and telephone companies to disclose private communications and data of their users. Cherepennikov took part in developing the face ID system in Moscow.

he be dead now holmes, like a WHOLE BUNCH of other ludie
which is why EVERYBODY'S chillin over here now
slovo te mamichka

but his death marks a new improvement in technique
overcoming the polonium and novichok fails
GRU gettin it's groove back with Kamera in Moscva
and ya'll know why

pootin has had purge after purge
vomiting top fsb and military officials
but his health isn't getting any better

soon, the medication of last resort will be used
radiation therapy

russki stariks just don't understand novichok chemotherapy
so they're against it, thought it worked better for 'special ops' than in warfare, even tried it covertly in syria
and since GRU phuqued it up in the UK, they don't even like it for that anymore

ya think any of them are gonna take the trouble to pour over the casualty statistics of WWI gas shells vrs explosive ones
and even primitive phosgene made artillery 10X more effective, novichok would be 1,000 times that
a binary novichok shell only gets its binary ingredients mixed when the 152mm artillery shell is spinnin
can be safely stored and handled by absolute dumb phuques fallin down drunk on home made vodka
nyet - they prefer nukes, makes better images
russians always base their decision on qualatative and not quanatative reasoning
it's why I consider them dumb phuques and always ran circles around them
"strength in numbers" is not a head count, it's about 'the power of arithemetic'
and these pridorki can't add or multiply, they only know how to divide and subtract

so you can imagine trying to explain Bayesian Decision Theory to these durrichki (throws up hands and walks away)

exit - stage left
FINIS

this insane rant by a deranged degenerate was brought to you by Powdermilk Biscuits available at your local supermarket
Has your family tried them, Powdermilk!
Well, if your family's tried 'em,
You know you've satisfied 'em,
They're a real hot item, Powdermilk!

and should also be considered as a 'cautionary tale' on the perils of abusing russian nootropic drugs
I also never shoulda done the ayahuasca at Auschwitz and walked around with a mirror and clear polaroid lenses, thinkin it would be a REALLY fun experiment...
IT WASN'T!!!

[Chelseaboy]

Latest figures from Hana Maliar.


192 square km's in the south, in the direction of Melitopol and Berdyansk, have now been liberated.


35 square km's in the east around Bakhmut have also been liberated.


The AFU counter offensive continues to live up to the title of this thread.

[Trenchcoat]

At the front Ukraine is facing difficulty as I suggested it might several weeks ago as a result of waiting till late Spring/early Summer to start the offensive, the Russians are well dug in, huge multi layered mine fields, fortifications, etc and have gotten more cunning in the way it fights:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66306150

They are now luring Ukrainians into positions such as trenches and detonating radio controlled mines, nasty. One minute you're thinking great you're taking enemy positions then the next minute you're gone without a chance, real terrible for Ukrainian soldiers to face really.

So Ukrainian forces are trying to thrust towards the south, Melitopol, Mariupol, and east towards Donetsk. That was expected as the most strategic locations, but the Russians fully expected them to be coming and they're talking into this trap set by the Russians. Now if I were in charge of Ukrainian forces I would switch towards making the main thrust in the north, north of Donetsk and east of Kharkiv. The front is apparently a lot less mined there, far less fortifications. Sure it's the long way around but success likely easier, progress likely faster. Counterattack there and swing downwards towards Donetsk and follow on through. No guarantee of getting all the way down towards Mariupol, they might but main thing would be much land would be retaken which is better than very little of any significance. Best outcome they retake Mariupol and cut off Russian forces leaving them in a tenuous situation reliant on the Kerch bridge.

I think a lot of Ukraine's war woes at the moment is being predictable, on paper sound decisions but too well known about, expected. Ukraine has become too assured that western weapons & armaments will come good for them on the battlefield. They can do some good stuff but if the wrong strategy is used they'll struggle to overcome that just like the Russians struggled in the early part off their invasion by deploying the wrong strategy and hoping the force of their arms would overpower the Ukrainians whatever.

[Chelseaboy]

The good news is that the scale of the orcs losses is becoming incalculable.


Just one recent example :


June 2 Chechen Akhmat 54th Brigade sent to Marinka.


July 10 Withdrawn and sent to Bakhmut as blocking troops.


July 17 Moved to the front to try and hold the crumbling defences.


July 27 Video appeal from 1st Battalion as they reveal out of 500 troops only 60 are still alive.


and there's more.


Russian sources are reporting the Russian 810th Naval infantry operating in the Orikhiv region has suffered heavy casualties,with death notices in July exceeding 100,based on an audit of publicly available info.

The confirmed total of orc officers killed in Ukraine since February 24th last year.based on publicly available data from Russia ,via funeral notices,obituaries and news sites,had risen to 2,571 by 26th July this year. 

[Trenchcoat]

The good news is that the scale of the orcs losses is becoming incalculable.


Just one recent example :


June 2 Chechen Akhmat 54th Brigade sent to Marinka.


July 10 Withdrawn and sent to Bakhmut as blocking troops.


July 17 Moved to the front to try and hold the crumbling defences.


July 27 Video appeal from 1st Battalion as they reveal out of 500 troops only 60 are still alive.


and there's more.


Russian sources are reporting the Russian 810th Naval infantry operating in the Orikhiv region has suffered heavy casualties,with death notices in July exceeding 100,based on an audit of publicly available info.

The confirmed total of orc officers killed in Ukraine since February 24th last year.based on publicly available data from Russia ,via funeral notices,obituaries and news sites,had risen to 2,571 by 26th July this year. 

Problem is Ukraine is also apparently suffering heavy losses in its Counter-offensive attempts. No figures have come out as they tend to be kept pretty quiet. I found the video of those poor Ukrainian soldiers jumping into that trench and the Russians detonating the mines there really quite shocking when they showed it on the BBC News yesterday. And stuff like that is happening all the time now. I'm glad I'm not at the front there, you wouldn't know when the next moment may be your last.

I'm personally erring on Russia having the upper hand as things stand at the moment not so much on the battlefront that's pretty much even stevens at the moment but on the grander campaign scale of things. They've seen the Ukrainians coming and the Ukrainian are now close minded in their aims. While Russia has gone a step further beyond and are now helping Belarus beef up it's army for an inevitable attack from the north at some point. My guess is that this time they will look to take and vlist the border area to deprive Ukraine of ammunition and weapons. They will know that Ukraine had a tenuous ammunition supply that will quickly run out with the speed at which the use it.

Ukraine said yesterday that they had a breakthrough one front but little more than them retaking a village has so far come about. Unless they do so soon or something in Russia happens then I think they need a real strategy overhaul and reassess the situation. I still think attacking east of Kharkiv would be best and work their way down thereby getting behind the enemy line and rolling up the whole line that way. Failing to make progress will just put Ukraine mord at risk as they could end up fighting in two fronts with Belarus in the north and that could prove too much for them.

[Chelseaboy]

I wouldn't be too shocked at Ukrainian troops being blasted by mines as they jump into liberated trenches....the Ukrainians have been doing similar to the Russians,so can't complain about the tactic...in fact they may have given the Russians the idea,


In Bakhmut the Ukrainians were remotely detonating buildings as Russians entered them months ago,


The Ukrainians will now know not to jump into liberated trenches now..they can just use grenade launchers/mortars and fire them into the trenches to set any mines off....problem solved.


There will be no attack from Belarus into Ukraine....the Ukrainians have prepared very well for it and the Wagner and Belarusian troops would be slaughtered.

[Chelseaboy]

More good news....increasing numbers of Russian troops are now refusing to fight.


The AFU General Staff : The number of refusals to participate in combat operations has increased in the units of the Russian occupation forces.


"About 60 Russian servicemen from the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division of the Russian Armed Forces refused to perform combat missions near the village of Staromayorske,the Donetsk region " - the statement says.

[krimster2]

russians have lots of educational material for how to perform "de-mining"
read it, and you to can have the knowledge of an average Russian 6 yr old student

Russian SpazNutZ are secretly blowin wads of scarce USD$, tryin to buy any western MANPAD they can  from the Ukrainian military (and THEY ALREADY HAVE SOME!)
next, they'll turn around and GIVE THEM AWAY Free-of-Charge to ISYS and Mexianan Cartels
who will target American Icons with thems
so  Fox can blame it on Biden
and raise Trump's Poll Numbers

Russian Fairy Tales are all filled with stories of how the "wise king" is besieged by stronger enemies
and defeats them through "trickery"
maya bubba told em to me

Russians eat this up like it's a slice of salo and a shot of vodka
haha, shoulda seen it when I showed Russians how to make Bacon
They freakin love it
in crimea and Russia, my daughters were master butchers who were well taught by their Crimean Grandfather
which is good, cuz whenever I see a bunch of blood and organs, it triggers memories and I lose focus
if you grow your own meat, you also have to know how to butcher it
after spending all day on it and hours of clean-up, I totally see why people in the West prefer white cellophane packages of meat

you in the "Oktober Country" boys
you don't know how lucky you are malchiky
back in the USSR

color me disillusioned about life in the west
the land of the not-so-free and home of the not-so-brave

living in Russia was VERY simple!
there are only two rules - just TWO!!!

1. never criticize somone above you
2. pay to your clan what they're at least entitled to, if not more (plus gifts) - in other words - DO NOT BE SELFISH AND GREEDY!!

just do that, and you can pretty much do whatever you want

A FUN GAME in Moscow City Center
Wear a 3-piece suit and walk into 4Seasons at breakfast
walk right up to the continental buffet and get yourself a plate

then figure out a way to get a free lunch
and then dinner

it was almost as much fun as walking across the Israeli/Jordanian border and stealing a car when I was a teen
damn my girl friend was impressed and hell yes, we made out in the car

[Trenchcoat]

There will be no attack from Belarus into Ukraine....the Ukrainians have prepared very well for it and the Wagner and Belarusian troops would be slaughtered.

Is that really any different to the Ukrainians attacking the fortified, dug in and mined Russian positions at present?

Situation will be much the same, Belarus will attack and just endure whatever there is. Like Russia there is only so much Ukraine can mine and fortify their positions. It's effective as we have seen from Russia doing so as opposed to them not. Belarus will just throw themselves at them as Ukrainians are now doing against Russians and take whatever slow progress there may be. For sure it's likely to be slow progress but even if they don't break through they will put Ukraine under greater pressure. Ukraine will end up using more ammunition, having to replace more soldiers, spend more and generally divert resources their armies then having to be split more evenly between two fronts.

That's all a potential headache for Ukraine as how long can they keep that up for? If the west get increasing costs for propping up the Ukrainian war effort then the strain will likely start to tell. I don't see Ukraine doing so well and lasting under such circumstances. That's why Ukraine need to make a break through this year ideally. If they can't do it in the next few days going as they are then counterattacking over the softer territory east of Kharkiv then down would be best for them I think. Go through the door rather than trying to go through the wall next to it by keep headbutting the wall in effect.

I don't think people necessarily see that the war is potentially turning against Ukraine even as they press their current Counter-offensive the way they are.

[Trenchcoat]

living in Russia was VERY simple!
there are only two rules - just TWO!!!

1. never criticize somone above you
2. pay to your clan what they're at least entitled to, if not more (plus gifts) - in other words - DO NOT BE SELFISH AND GREEDY!!

Yes knowing when to keep mouth shut out there seems to be what is required. Fortunately though I am usually good enough at spotting when to do that. You lose nothing by keeping your mouth shut and not peeing off those in power as opening mouth tends to not have any positive effect anyway.

Is the clan system common in Russia? Makes me think of Scotland in Braveheart times all the different clans & kilts etc. I guess it's how the Oligarch almost feudal system came about again out there post USSR. As you've said about the Oligarch system like Putler, gifts have got to be keep being given or the Oligarchy get restless and that's not good news for the Oligarch at the top.

[Grumpy]

russians have lots of educational material for how to perform "de-mining"
read it, and you to can have the knowledge of an average Russian 6 yr old student

It is good that the children are being trained to recognize, avoid, and report mines. What a sorry efffen world we live in.

[krimster2]

"Is the clan system common in Russia?"

oh yeah-h-h-h-h
especially at the top level of Russian society
no wealthy russian is an island unto himself
A russian Clan is more like the Japanese Keiretsu, than them tartan wearin, haggis eatin fellers up north

for lower levels of Russian society, it's kinda like America was 100 yrs ago
very tightly woven social networks
somebody knows a guy, who knows a guy, who sells his mamichka's radiskos, on the ulitsa behind you
and since you just happen to love those big ones, you take advantage of this info..
and you tell your druzya as well

if you can connect yourself to one of these big Russian social networks over there
your days of being without "pooty tang" would be over immediately

because, over there, , It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single western man in Russia, must be in want of a wife
and they will shop you around like a bag of radishes, until they find a "buyer" who will "owe them" for this discovery

but that...
that was all pre-war
now, they'll think you're some kinda Javelin salesman and act accordingl
especially after the Russian Ministry of Defense starts listing dead soldiers as "missing"
so they don't have to pay out the insurance money to the family, so it can instead be stolen by some well connected clan in Moscva

[Chelseaboy]

Is that really any different to the Ukrainians attacking the fortified, dug in and mined Russian positions at present?

Situation will be much the same, Belarus will attack and just endure whatever there is. Like Russia there is only so much Ukraine can mine and fortify their positions. It's effective as we have seen from Russia doing so as opposed to them not. Belarus will just throw themselves at them as Ukrainians are now doing against Russians and take whatever slow progress there may be. For sure it's likely to be slow progress but even if they don't break through they will put Ukraine under greater pressure. Ukraine will end up using more ammunition, having to replace more soldiers, spend more and generally divert resources their armies then having to be split more evenly between two fronts.

That's all a potential headache for Ukraine as how long can they keep that up for? If the west get increasing costs for propping up the Ukrainian war effort then the strain will likely start to tell. I don't see Ukraine doing so well and lasting under such circumstances. That's why Ukraine need to make a break through this year ideally. If they can't do it in the next few days going as they are then counterattacking over the softer territory east of Kharkiv then down would be best for them I think. Go through the door rather than trying to go through the wall next to it by keep headbutting the wall in effect.

I don't think people necessarily see that the war is potentially turning against Ukraine even as they press their current Counter-offensive the way they are.

Well yeah there's a huge difference in that the orcs don't have HIMARS to hit AFU troops stuck in minefields with.


The orcs can't really hit AFU troops stuck in minefields because their artillery is outranged by AFU artillery and will be destroyed with precision counter-fire.


No such problem for the Ukrainians though....they can hit the Wagner and Belarusian troops stuck in minefields whilst they're eating cake and biscuits and drinking tea and coffee,..it'll be finished within three or four days.


It took Wagner troops nine months to take Bakhmut and they weren't left exposed out in the open as they will be at the Ukrainian border.


Imagine the carnage inflicted on 62k Belarusian and 5k Wagner troops  stuck in minefields at the Ukrainian border,rockets raining down on them...it'll be like napalm attacks magnified twenty times over.


Not even the Russian tv propagandists are contemplating the thought of Ukraine being invaded by Wagner troops via Belarus..even they're not that daft.


No doubt the AFU will be smiling at the thought and saying "bring it on "...Lukashenko will be left totally vulnerable to the Belarusian dissidents,and Putler won't be able to send enough troops in to save him because they're all busy dying in Ukraine.

[Chelseaboy]

It is good that the children are being trained to recognize, avoid, and report mines. What a sorry efffen world we live in.

Russian schoolchildren from 11 years old up now have to learn how to load and use Kalashnikov's as part of their school curriculum too .


Putler is turning Russia into North Korea.

[krimster2]

I imagine the power point presentation was like:

da, we can shorten basic training by 4 weeks, one month, which saves about 25,000 rubles per recruit by simply training them as  volunteer "students" provided by regional school budgets

all students, must now be enrolled in the mandatory class on "Ask Not What The Government Can Do for You - Instead ask what you can do for the govenment to keep your ass outta jail"
which, if you're Russian, you probably already know what the answer is...

ras, vas, tree

we're all just
prisoners of LOVE
with the Blue Sky ABOVE

drones flyin over the black sea
all fly gracefully high o-ver me

and...
huh? what??
awright...awright...mumble...
 

[Trenchcoat]

Well yeah there's a huge difference in that the orcs don't have HIMARS to hit AFU troops stuck in minefields with.


The orcs can't really hit AFU troops stuck in minefields because their artillery is outranged by AFU artillery and will be destroyed with precision counter-fire.


No such problem for the Ukrainians though....they can hit the Wagner and Belarusian troops stuck in minefields whilst they're eating cake and biscuits and drinking tea and coffee,..it'll be finished within three or four days.


It took Wagner troops nine months to take Bakhmut and they weren't left exposed out in the open as they will be at the Ukrainian border.


Imagine the carnage inflicted on 62k Belarusian and 5k Wagner troops  stuck in minefields at the Ukrainian border,rockets raining down on them...it'll be like napalm attacks magnified twenty times over.


Not even the Russian tv propagandists are contemplating the thought of Ukraine being invaded by Wagner troops via Belarus..even they're not that daft.


No doubt the AFU will be smiling at the thought and saying "bring it on "...Lukashenko will be left totally vulnerable to the Belarusian dissidents,and Putler won't be able to send enough troops in to save him because they're all busy dying in Ukraine.

CB allow me to raise your intellectual quota ceiling here

Why do you think Wagner are training Belarusian soldiers for?

To deal with dissidents? No that's just the cover story they can deal with dissidents well enough already with what they've got and have been for years. The Belarusian police and KGB are enough to deal with dissidents never mind the army. So they're training them for another reason and there's only one reason for training an army up better - you're either going to attack or you fear being attacked.

Putler has made claims about Russia wanting to attack Belarus. I don't think that's at all likely, Poland would be condemned by it's EU & NATO counterparts and risk being thrown out of either or both. Belarus would be an odd but of territory to tack onto Poland it would be like some awkward looking bit stuck on the side and Belarus has Belarusian rather than Polish people residing in it. In short it's too much of a headache and bother for Poland which they don't want nor need. Poland itself is of large enough territory for them not to see themselves as needing more nor are they that bothered about Lukashenko to go to war over with him.

So that leaves Belarus training up its military and fir one purpose only, to attack Ukraine. No way is Ukraine going to attack Belarus and give Russia the excuse to go full out against Ukraine with all its git, nukes included. So it can only be that Belarus is going to attack Ukraine. Remember too that it is getting a while load of new armaments from Russia to beef up it's military too plus is having nukes put on its soil. So why go to all that expense if it is not going to be used? My guess is also that Belarus will start recruiting more soldiers on the quiet also probably expanding their soldiers from 62k to 100k and possibly beyond.

Their attacks on the Ukrainian border will most likely reflect Ukraine's. Not all forces will be committed upfront to avoid the scenario you suggest. Instead small forces will move forward to clear the minefield slowly bit by bit. When they are destroyed more small groups will be sent forward and so on. Who knows maybe even dissidents fron the prisons will be told to walk into the minefield to set them off or face being shot in a human shield type of operation. It won't be fast progress but like Ukraine's current Counter-offensive they will keep gnawing away at it. For Belarus it's not a problem they will be using up Ukraine's ammunition and drawing it's forces from the eastern front so that alone is useful for Russia.

HIMARS won't be off a lot of use there either, Ukraine won't fire them into Belarus like it doesn't fire them into Russia as the terms of being supplied them. The missiles are too expensive usually to use on ground troops unless there is a real good reason. So Belarusian troop numbers sent forward will be too small for it. They may use artillery to hit Belarusian troops and they may destroy them but then they are using ammo and destroying it's minefield for them. Also even though Belarusian artillery has less range it's not so much difference that they couldn't manoeuvre some artillery into range to counterattack even if it later gets destroyed.

Remember a military victory by Belarus is not necessarily needed here. Causing Ukraine to further draw on its resources to answer the attack may be more than enough. If Russia can push the cost of the war up then for how long can Ukraine & the west sustain that cost? On ground troops alone Ukraine would have to recruit and sustain a larger army to successfully defend on two fronts over a prolonged period. My guess is that it will be quite a financial strain doing that.

[Trenchcoat]

"Is the clan system common in Russia?"

oh yeah-h-h-h-h
especially at the top level of Russian society
no wealthy russian is an island unto himself
A russian Clan is more like the Japanese Keiretsu, than them tartan wearin, haggis eatin fellers up north

for lower levels of Russian society, it's kinda like America was 100 yrs ago
very tightly woven social networks
somebody knows a guy, who knows a guy, who sells his mamichka's radiskos, on the ulitsa behind you
and since you just happen to love those big ones, you take advantage of this info..
and you tell your druzya as well

if you can connect yourself to one of these big Russian social networks over there
your days of being without "pooty tang" would be over immediately

because, over there, , It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single western man in Russia, must be in want of a wife
and they will shop you around like a bag of radishes, until they find a "buyer" who will "owe them" for this discovery

but that...
that was all pre-war
now, they'll think you're some kinda Javelin salesman and act accordingl
especially after the Russian Ministry of Defense starts listing dead soldiers as "missing"
so they don't have to pay out the insurance money to the family, so it can instead be stolen by some well connected clan in Moscva

Ah, so a Russian clan is more like business associate groupings. Do such clans have names?

The info on the friends associate network is interesting. That's the sort of cultural stuff that is interesting to know about. Ask Boe about cultural stuff and it will be all the arts, literature, classical music, etc

What's the best way to get into one of these friends networks? I mean beyond the obvious of getting a friend who is connected to one lol.

[Trenchcoat]

Good article on the current state of play at the Ukrainian front I think:

http://www.cnn.com/2023/07/29/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-south-push-intl/index.html

Looks like Russia isn't bothering rotating it's troops but instead mixing in new recruits so the experience is passed on rather than risk rotating to fresh new recruits who might break and run for it or be pushed back.

Ukraine looks like it's taking a cautious approach clearing the minefield rather than risking it's soldiers. If this was Wagner they would probably just order their cannon fodder prison troops in and clear the way by being blown up by the mines for a more speedy advance.

As the article stares Ukraine's approach has allowed Russia to assemble troops to counter attack in the north. Ukraine could have had an easy in there if they had decided to attack their fight. Countering the counter attack there is still a possibility though I think and may suit Ukraine better than its current offensive in the south and the east.

As the article shows the Ukrainians are only just getting past some of the minefield to Russia's heavily fortified positions so it's not likely to get any easier for them, possibly harder. However once they finish clearing enough mines that may allow the bulk of its forces to come forward, buy I think them waiting in reserve all this time had been a mistake when they could have been put to better use in the north, east of Kharkiv.

[krimster2]

Russian and Ukrainian clans are all "regional" top-down organizations
tied to a common CEO , it really is a conglomerate of "interests" under a common roof, or krisha
in Russia everything has to have a krisha, or it gets washed away sooner or later
you don't pay your krisha, one day you could lose everything, even your life, this ALMOST happened to me

I am now connected through marriage to  the Solntsevskaya Bratva
named after the Solntsevo District in Moscow (a wealthy district)
it'd be like sayin you're in the  "Beverly Hills Mob" in the USA or the Greenwich Village Mob
if you are what people refer to as "British" ya might be in the Kensington or Chelsea mob
if you were in the Essex mob, you would't even tell anyone about it over embaressment
and you Trench, you have no ties to any clan, no loyalty 'cept to thine own self
you're not really part of any community

as I remember the midlands, they had these big dirty lookin red and brown brick industrial wasteland cities (the old empty mills were a great place to play in and throw rocks at the other kids)
once I hit puberty, I noticed...
that there were a LOT of sexually promiscuous women out prowling the club areas after dark like they're cats in heat
they liked to travel in small groups
these were all lower middle class chicks lookin for an "escape" by getting drunk and laid

"hello ladies, enjoying the night air are we...???
"Greetings, I am a wealthy "country bumpkin" American Tourist, who is also a virgin, will I be safe in this area??
you don't say it, you ACT IT!!
like choppin steak and throwin it to a school of sharks



I used to operate through Russian clan proxies, I don't do anything there now..
but here in the USA, we are all connected

I provide child protective custody services for the clan and help them "transition" into being trans-Americans (the land of don't say Gay or Goy)
Russians in the clan all respect my skills and trust me more than they would trust ANY Russian

before the war, I only got LOVE, from the Russian people, they didn't really view me as entirely American
more like they would a Russian who went to live there, but returned to the rodina

russians wanna throw my ass in jail, why? because of all the crimes I committed?
NO, I always pay my krisha
no, because it's the only way I'd ever work for them again
and they are freakin desperate

a wounded bear is a VERY dangerous creature to stand next to
I recommend being as far away as poosible
North America seems Nice!

if you spoke posh received pronunciation well
you could get one of them Seville Row suits
fly to New York
cruise the singles bars
you'd get hits
Marry the girl, become a US citizen, triple your income over here...
you got a better plan, then let's hear it!

or wear a simple black suit if you can do John Lenon or Paul Mcartney in a Karaoke bar

I did Karaoke like 30 yr ago, and often got invited to tables of girls...
and I'd tag along with them for the night, and leave after breakfast
those were good times, let me tell ya

hardly any young people live like this today where I live, they're too self-absorbed with their Instagram profile
and their future in the "real world"  just gets worse over time

your destiny isn't virtual
to make it real
requires real effort

not to even try just means you're either too dumb or too lazy to try

I give you the zen slap of enlightenment

smart people (I'm not sayin any of ya'll are IDIOTS, cuz I wouldn't want to hurt somebody's delicate fee-fees here)
will choose their spouses when they're young and not middle-aged!

why? because that's when they're at their PEAK Sexual Market Value
and as a result, they get TOP PRICE for what "they're sellin"

OK?

what you got?
and how much ya think that's worth...

but, I have not come to appraise Trench....
but to ferry him,
to the next level