2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[Gator]

NY Times


This says to me we ill not shake the disease until we have a vaccine. 

[mhr7]

The Democrats' political campaign of fear mongering has already cast doubt on the vaccines to be available soon.   Pence told Kamala during the debate that her campaign of fear mongering discourages use of vaccines and is "unconscionable."   And I agree, given so many ill-informed Americans already are averse to any vaccination. 

Will the Democrat's same politics of fear  be applied to the two therapeutics that prompted a remarkable recovery by Trump?    Is this not indeed "unconscionable?"

Kamala Harris said she would trust a vaccine if it was back by the scientific community, no fear mongering going on there. The Democrats want scientific fact, not Trump's opinion.

[mhr7]

[Gator]

Kamala Harris said she would trust a vaccine if it was back by the scientific community, no fear mongering going on there. The Democrats want scientific fact, not Trump's opinion.

Trump opined about the benefits of Regeneron's antibody cocktail, a drug not yet granted EUA by the FDA. 

If infected Democrats will not take it, that means more infected Republicans will survive because the number of doses is very limited, certainly not enough for every patient requiring supplemental oxygen. 

[Gator]

COVAX

BC,

I have had the time to read more about COVAX.  I feel more confident that this is not now a big government program to regulate the production and distribution of COVID vaccines being developed by the pharmaceutical industry.

The COVAX charter seems noble, endeavoring to deliver vaccines to those in greatest need.  A number of underdeveloped nations are afflicted by COVID and will need help if we are to stop the pandemic.  . 

Normally I would think this effort would be the function of the WHO.  However, WHO's performance in early 2020 casts doubt on their ability.  Trump took the reins very early for vaccine development.  The US has made remarkable progress in coordination with pharmaceutical companies, an effort resembling the objectives of COVAX. 

I agree the US should be participating in the COVAX coordination effort, yet not at the expense of  delaying the already existing US Warp Speed program.   COVAX is targeting the end of 2021 for delivery of 2 billion doses.  In contrast Warp Speed is targeting mass delivery starting the end of 2020, one year sooner.  I am certain there will be ample capacity from US pharmaceutical companies to help meet the COVAX goal.  Also, Trump has pledged intentions to help other nations with vaccines, as he did earlier in 2020 with providing respirators. 

As you say, the US may be sitting in the bleachers for the COVAX effort, yet we are winning on the field in an immense effort well underway and nearing its goals.   China and Russia along with the US are not listed as having expressed interest in COVAX.  Yet, two of the vaccines in the COVAX's portfolio of nine vaccines are from state-controlled China.    Also odd,  one of the leading US vaccine developers (J&J who is in Phase 3 trials) is not involved with COVAX.   I expect pharmaceutical  companies are attending COVAX meetings and sharing information about US developments.

[BC]

Hi Gator,

China joined a few days ago.

China joins COVAX coronavirus vaccine alliance
http://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-xi-jinping-taiwan-china-archive-aae1708207d3510a434d35aec994d4d1

As for timelines, it is going to take one hell of an effort to get enough vaccines approved, produced and distributed.

We can't fool ourselves that it is going to be easy, quick or fast.  We'll have our own 'experience' with this.  It will be interesting to see when I can mark 'get vaccinated' on my calendar and compare with yours to see if there is any great difference and judge the true effect of 'warp speed'.

I expect general availability in most of the wealthy nations to be mid to end 2021, and that includes the US.

Regarding WHO, they were just as dependent on China to provide information as everyone else.  Ok, I get the gist of your argument, even agree that China was trying to contain and cover very early on and doubt we'll see a repeat from them in the future as hard lessons have been learned.  Then again, our own response has been miserable.  Do you believe knowing more earlier on would have changed what Trump & Co knew on 28 January?  Would our response have been any different had WHO known more?  WHO did indicate human to human transmission on 22 January.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/world-health-organization-blame-pandemic-coronavirus/609820/

Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.

http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

I'll get back to your prior posts shortly, but 'till then just think 28 January until today, almost 9 months later, what is the message Trump is sending about the virus?



Who cares about Amazon Prime Day,  it should be 'Go get COVID day and it won't cost a dime!!!  It'll make you younger, stronger and immune!

[BC]

Trump opined about the benefits of Regeneron's antibody cocktail, a drug not yet granted EUA by the FDA. 

If infected Democrats will not take it, that means more infected Republicans will survive because the number of doses is very limited, certainly not enough for every patient requiring supplemental oxygen.

A trial of 1 does not a cure make.  Fact, we don't know if it helped.

Trump touting it is totally irresponsible.

[BC]

NY Times


This says to me we ill not shake the disease until we have a vaccine.

Gator,

The grey area is what we (in the US) should really be worrying about.  Yes, a vaccine is needed, however, we're looking at least another 6 months for general distribution to even begin.



J&J IIRC the largest trial to date was paused to investigate an 'event'.  Hopefully, again, an unrelated anomaly, but it is good these companies are not skipping steps and their own guidelines.

http://www.statnews.com/2020/10/12/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-study-paused-due-to-unexplained-illness-in-participant/

It should be a reminder though that 'it ain't over till it's over'.

[BC]

“We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Nabarro said.

“The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”

Lockdowns in the EU were necessary and very helpful for the reasons stated.  With a bit of luck newly implemented measures will bring the EU back on track.  I am confident in the measures being taken here in Italy that does not include a nationwide lockdown.  We'll see.  the experience does show though that a second wave can be worse than a first (albeit many more tests are being taken today than during the first wave), but all indications are it is upon us and we again need to be very careful.  I have seen much greater use of masks etc but still, the younger crowd (school kids etc) is a compliance problem.  Fines between EUR 400 and 1000 are being handed out to those that are not complying, but this is not the primary motive folks are wearing masks.

[BC]

Regarding the US approach, Trump very early recognized vaccines are the only answer to the pandemic.  He promptly started a private-public collaboration to develop the vaccines at "warp speed".  And many months later, you find fault with his initiative?!

Trump's approach was seeking a one-stop solution, underestimating the complexity of what needed to happen between 'now' and 'then' to save lives.  It continues today.

Biden and your party found fault with Trump's travel restrictions in January.  Who was correct?

. Halting travel was prudent, however, the damage had already been done.  A de-facto stop was already occurring with airlines no longer flying.

You found fault with Trump not disclosing to the public in the early months haw dangerous the virus could be.   If Trump had been completely candid, he would created a panic.  I question how many essential workers would have reported to work.  Imagine life in NYC or anywhere with limited availability of  food stores, pharmacies, etc.

Did Europe not face the same challenge?  I remember here there was a short run on stores for essentials.  Governments simply announced that deliveries would be guaranteed and things quickly normalized.  Panic is the result of distrust.  Simple as that.  There is no evidence that I have seen supporting Trump's position, and that we could not have handled the truth like EVERYONE else in the world did.

[BC]

Three explanations: 

1.  Lower prices has always been the case for EU for medicines.  Canada also has lower prices. That's what happens in a  laissez-faire vs. big government, socialistic societies.  In one way it is good because the high US pricing has indirectly been subsidizing lower prices to less wealthy countries for a long, long time. It is surprising that EU chose not to contribute but to suck on the same teat of subsidies. 

Essentially, all universal healthcare countries did is cut kneecap or cut out the (very expensive) middleman, leveraging their own buying power instead of making others very rich to the tune of tens of billions.  Surely you recognize that the US experienced a wave of overprescribing opioids, much to the benefit of doctors, middlemen, and manufacturers.  The US was the only country that experienced such a large wave of legal drugs prescribed and distributed illegally. What was the cost to taxpayers and society in general?

“The middlemen became very, very rich. Whoever those middlemen were – and a lot of people never even figured it out – they’re rich. They won’t be so rich anymore,”.

DJT

Has anything changed since this statement?

2.  AstraZeneca is actually a consortium of Europe pharmaceutical companies and Europe university, so Europe needs to get an edge.   The other leading vaccines are being developed mostly by US companies.  I do know that the US has already paid for much of the supply.

3. AZ vaccine is inferior to  developing US vaccines according to Nancy Pelosi (ha ha) - read more about that and you will begin to understand how wacky our Speaker can be.

EU is not limited to AZ.  A number of efforts are being supported and the list keeps increasing.  I agree Pelosi and many Americans have a unique POV.
 

CDC has nothing to do with EUA's.  Regarding Trump, as is his nature he did not hide in the basement but pushed for action.   Regardless, the FDA will make the safety decisions as the process was designed decades ago. 

You are correct.  Replace CDC with FDA which may make the situation worse.

Splendid, lets do that.  However, after saying you are putting politics aside, in your next breath you criticized Trump's policies.  You are hopeless.

Whaddayaexpectfromadamnsocialistcommie?

It is good that Europe is working together.  I say that because you need to just to keep up. 

We'll just have to see who is 'keeping up'.

Yes it is to be mired in fearmongering, spying on the President, lying to the public,  obstructing the President, fomenting hatred....all because of the left's great compulsion to gain power, regardless of the costs.

How would that be related to COVID vaccines and world health efforts?

[msmob]

US man gets COVID twice and it was worse second time....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54512034

[Rosco]

Average life expectancy in the UK is 81 years.

Average age of those in the UK who died with covid is 82 years old.

Those who read and believe sensationalist headlines might claim that covid prolongs your life......

[Rosco]

US man gets COVID twice and it was worse second time....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54512034

That doesn't necessarily mean anything other than a freak anomaly. I reckon hundreds of millions of people will have come into contact with covid with only a small proportion of them have any symptoms at all. From those who caught covid, almost none of them have caught it again.

It's all about relativity.

[msmob]

Rosco,



I have THREE biz partners that most certainly are better qualified that you or I and some folks STILL believe in 'herd immunity'

We have NO idea how long having antibodies lasts and how different people can be more open to  second dose ..

It isn't that uncommon and more and more documented cases are occuring.


The chap was at least 10 years younger than you, but we don't know his medical background.

In Volgograd, I know of three generations who have tested positive and are asymptomatic - aged 57 down to 7 ...  Would you 'argue' this means COVID is 'nothing to worry about' ?

[BC]

Average life expectancy in the UK is 81 years.

To be exact, median age, meaning half who died were 82 and over, the other half younger than 82.

worldometers.info lists 42,875 deaths in the UK.  Half, 21,437, were younger.

In addition, many were 'excess deaths' exceeding expected deaths during non-COVID times.



So it's a far cry from saying these folks would have died in short order anyway.

Including a number of doctors and other very valuable healthcare workers.

http://www.bmj.com/covid-memorial

[Gator]

As for timelines, it is going to take one hell of an effort to get enough vaccines approved, produced and distributed.

For the world, yes.   For the US, sooner.

It will be interesting to see when I can mark 'get vaccinated' on my calendar and compare with yours to see if there is any great difference and judge the true effect of 'warp speed'.

Excellent comparison.  Even a few months is important.  However, that still leaves open the question of percentage immunized when many stateside citizens will decline receiving it.   

Would our response have been any different had WHO known more?  WHO did indicate human to human transmission on 22 January.

Earlier, China knew so much more.  WHO should have been stronger on quarantining China itself.  It was a novel respiratory disease, so transmission via air pathways are the first assumptions. 

Who cares about Amazon Prime Day,  it should be 'Go get COVID day and it won't cost a dime!!!  It'll make you younger, stronger and immune!

.....still interjecting your fearmongering political spin.  I thought we were trying to set politics aside. 

Why not contrast the mindset of Trump vs. Democrat leaders in those early weeks before COVID ravaged our country?!?! You know why.

[Gator]

Trump touting it is totally irresponsible.

He entered the disease with two strikes against him  (age, obesity).   He spit in the face of the disease and recovered quickly, back on the campaign trail in less than two weeks.  Remarkable!!!!

My heart goes out to those Democrats who were disappointed, wanting Trump to suffer if not die. 

God forbid you becoming infected, but if you do, would you deny the Regeneron cocktail because Trump called attention to the progress our pharmaceutical industry is making?   

It is not Trump touting it, it is the Democrat   tactic of criticizing everything he does, mongering fear at every opportunity.  Who suffers - the patient now frightened of drugs that likely could help them.     

[Gator]

The grey area is what we (in the US) should really be worrying about.  Yes, a vaccine is needed, however, we're looking at least another 6 months for general distribution to even begin.

99% of those people have recovered, many without symptoms. 

J&J IIRC the largest trial to date was paused to investigate an 'event'.  Hopefully, again, an unrelated anomaly, but it is good these companies are not skipping steps and their own guidelines.

Same as what happened with AstraZeneca trial.  Liability compel pharma companies to proceed with caution. 

It should be a reminder though that 'it ain't over till it's over'.

My point, too.  Makes me even more upset with China. 

[fathertime]

My point, too.  Makes me even more upset with China.

Looking for excuses to be angry with china, because they are beating us in business.  Our response hasn't worked so well, our populace is older and vulnerable. 

Fathertime! 

[Gator]

Trump's approach was seeking a one-stop solution, underestimating the complexity of what needed to happen between 'now' and 'then' to save lives.  It continues today.

Blind partisan opinion. 

Governments simply announced that deliveries would be guaranteed and things quickly normalized.

Were EU governments telling essential workers it was highly transmissible and very deadly, and any type of contact outside the home could kill them?

More politics. 

[Gator]

How would that be related to COVID vaccines and world health efforts?

Did you not hear what Kamala said about trusting medicine Trump touted? 

How does the not-so-informed, average American react to such?

Pandemic era golf beckons.  Enjoy your day. 

[BC]

Did you not hear what Kamala said about trusting medicine Trump touted? 

How does the not-so-informed, average American react to such?

Pandemic era golf beckons.  Enjoy your day.

PAGE

No, no, you’re Senator Harris to me. For life to get back to normal Dr. Anthony Fauci and other experts say that most of the people who can be vaccinated need to be vaccinated, but half of Americans now say they wouldn't take a vaccine if it was released now. If the Trump administration approves a vaccine, before after the election, should Americans take it and would you take it?

14:10 HARRIS

If the public health professionals, if Dr. Fauci, if the doctors tell us that we should take it, I'll be the first in line to take it. Absolutely. But if Donald Trump tells us that we should take it, I'm not taking it.

Obviously many Americans are hesitant already due to the confusion they are hearing.  Let the drug companies and FDA do their job unhindered.  That is what the public should be hearing from our president. 

[BC]

For the world, yes.   For the US, sooner.

We'll compare.

Excellent comparison.  Even a few months is important.  However, that still leaves open the question of percentage immunized when many stateside citizens will decline receiving it. 

Although there are naysayers here as well, the percentage of those that will get vaccinated will likely be higher than in the US.

Earlier, China knew so much more.  WHO should have been stronger on quarantining China itself.  It was a novel respiratory disease, so transmission via air pathways are the first assumptions. 

WHO could and cannot 'quarantine' China any more than they can quarantine the US.  They can only provide nations information they compile based on what they see/hear in other nations.  Yes, China was remiss or negligent by not passing on more information of what was really happening. 

.....still interjecting your fearmongering political spin.  I thought we were trying to set politics aside. 

Why not contrast the mindset of Trump vs. Democrat leaders in those early weeks before COVID ravaged our country?!?! You know why.

They knew only what we all knew at the time.  Trump likely knew more.  Had he done so, informing Dems and the public better, who knows what might have happened?  We can only guess.

[BC]

Blind partisan opinion. 

Possibly, but based on actions it is very difficult to accept otherwise.

Were EU governments telling essential workers it was highly transmissible and very deadly, and any type of contact outside the home could kill them?

Yes, they and the public were well informed of what the risks were and it was VERY visible at the time.  This is why the population hunkered down with purpose, and without much dispute.

More politics.

I'll try to keep it in check and reply with politics only when you do.