2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[msmob]

I will say Putin did an excellent job closing Russia's border with China early so that is why their outbreak is starting later than even ours.

The Russian infections were mainly from Europe !

A higher than expected proportion of Russian based Chinese - when allowed to return - were carrying the virus !

It's a BIG country, with less people travelling to Moscow at the moment, probably the only reason the wave is delayed.

Dagestan? They simply didn't get self isolation with weddings / funerals being attended by 500 plus guests

[Gator]

PROMISING NEWS ON SECOND VACCINE

Three days ago Moderna released human test data showing very promising news in developing a vaccine, and the stock market jumped up.  Today comes promising news on a second vaccine that is now in Phase 2 trials with two Phase 3 trials planned to commence soon:  10,000 UK volunteers in early June, and  30,000 US volunteers in July.  AZ plans to have Phase 3 UK clinical results in August.   
 
This second vaccine is being developed by the UK pharma company Astrazeneca  in collaboration with Oxford.  It has  not released human trial data, only trials with monkeys, and AZ claims those demonstrated efficacy for a single dose exposed to an "enormous"  load of viruses.   

In the field of developing pharmaceuticals, this is progressing at  breakneck speed.   This is happening because of the US Operation Warp Speed Program.  The program not only streamlines the regulatory process, it fuels the development with $1 billion from BARDA (US HHS  Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority).

The funding is helping to setup production for fast delivery of doses when approved for use.  The US has already secured 300 million doses, to be ready by January 2021.  There will be doses available for Europe and the rest of the world. 

The AZ CEO mentioned a slight concern with the declining rate of infection.  To demonstrate efficacy it is best to conduct Phase 3 trials in populations with growing outbreaks.  Evidently he needs to talk with BC who is promising second waves in the US.   

The AZ news is good yet is not prompting another rise in the stock market. 

[Gator]

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

The Democrats have criticized Trump vehemently accusing him of not doing enough as if the Feds should be managing everything.  They forget how when NYC and New York State screamed for help to avoid an Italy situation, the US marshaled  resources to deliver new hospitals, ventilators and other needs.  The response was so immense and prompt that the hospitals and ventilators went largely unused, and ventilators are now being sent to countries around the world.   

And the Democrats continued to complain that Trump was failing.

Question: "What is the most important need in the battle against the pandemic?"

Answer:  Development of an effective vaccine.

Trump has focused much of the US effort on exactly that, and the Federal resources are helping to produce a pipeline of promising vaccines at breakneck speed. 

It is time for Democrats to  get real and to work together with Trump.  If they can't do that, at least SHUT UP!!!

 

[Gator]

ANOTHER MOMENT TO REFLECT

Florida.  Yes, the news media again and again criticized Florida's governor and  promised disaster when Florida started to reopen.  "Just wait, in two weeks Florida will be a New York, an Italy."






And one day later, the press is again criticizing DeSantis, about the firing of an employee who evidently was not working well with the rest of the team.   

[krimster2]

"Trump has focused much of the US effort on exactly that"

NO he hasn't, Trump is doing JUST ONE JOB right now, and that's running his campaign, EVERYTHING he is doing relates to that

it's been estimated, that Trump's firing the doctor in charge of the federal vaccine program for his refusing to promote hydroxychloroquine cost the federal government 6 months of vaccine development time
google if you don't believe it..

Trump's negligence has cost 10s of thousands of American lives but that doesn't fit into your mind, because you are complicit in his crimes because you voted for him
you are an accessory to the preventable deaths of thousands of your own countrymen

you want to have your voice, your freedom, but want to deny these rights to those who don't believe in Trump
that DEFINITELY makes you a Repiublicon
step 1 for the USA to pull out of this mess, is to get rid of Trump in Nov

[BillyB]

PROMISING NEWS ON SECOND VACCINE

Labs are going to promote their product. If I were the owner of the lab, I'd promote my products too. We simply don't know which vaccines will be chosen but it's going to be 4 or 5 of them. Some vaccines may consist of an inactive coronavirus for our immune system to learn so it can quickly defeat the real threat when it enters out body. Some vaccines may target the coronavirus's genetic material to inactivate it or at least make it lose it's ability to attach to our cells. Another question is how effective the vaccine will be and will it provide lifetime immunity?

The funding is helping to setup production for fast delivery of doses when approved for use.  The US has already secured 300 million doses, to be ready by January 2021. 

Most of the doses for the 4 to 5 best candidate vaccines will be created before approval. If a few of those candidate vaccines are rejected in January, hundreds of millions of doses of vaccines will be thrown away. I don't expect every American to have a vaccine available to them in January. The election will be over by then and if Trump is still president, the media will hammer him.

[krimster2]

your immunity will decline by about 30% per year after either getting a vaccine or being infected and surviving
Corona vaccines will be like a flu vaccine, there will need to be a refresh at least every year and the vaccine will likely need to be a combination of several strains combined into one vaccine
you can google and read about it
IMHO. they should also combine Corona with a flu vaccine
but none of that is going to happen this year in the USA
and next year will be too damned late

[Faux Pas]

your immunity will decline by about 30% per year after either getting a vaccine or being infected and surviving
Corona vaccines will be like a flu vaccine, there will need to be a refresh at least every year and the vaccine will likely need to be a combination of several strains combined into one vaccine
you can google and read about it
IMHO. they should also combine Corona with a flu vaccine
but none of that is going to happen this year in the USA
and next year will be too damned late

I actually agree with you for a minute here but, you fail to consider we are not being allowed to develop herd immunity as we were with the previous 4 strains that comeback yearly. Those strains come yearly in much smaller numbers for that reason and yes we have vaccines to handle them. If not allowed to open up and develop a herd immunity covid is very likely to spread en mass next year as it has now. It appears now we'll have a vaccine by October but that'll be too late for the morons believing in distancing and lock downs to slow that spread. Your only answer so far is to hate Trump and abide in your hovel to the junk science being fed you daily

[BillyB]

Corona vaccines will be like a flu vaccine, there will need to be a refresh at least every year and the vaccine will likely need to be a combination of several strains combined into one vaccine

The coronavirus does not mutate as fast as the flu virus which is a good thing. The many strains of the coronavirus out there are small mutations and a vaccine may be able to handle them all. It's hard enough to create the first vaccine ever for a coronavirus. Hopefully the virus doesn't do a major mutation where we have to create another vaccine for a whole new coronavirus and China's present becomes the gift that keeps on giving.

[msmob]

we are not being allowed to develop herd immunity

Ah, the famed 'herd immunity'..

..and how many must DIE to achieve your idea of 'heaven' .. ?

[Faux Pas]

Ah, the famed 'herd immunity'..

..and how many must DIE to achieve your idea of 'heaven' .. ?

And then there's the forum and world expert with contacts across the globe from his mum's basement that just keeps rebounding with nothing. Time and time again, nothing.

How many are going to have to die yearly from repeating this pandemic if we stay in lock down, continually suppressing immunity and do not gain herd immunity? What say you Mr. Expert?

[krimster2]

you’ll need to suffer between 1 and 2 million deaths to get the USA to the level of herd immunity
and there will still be hundreds of thousands more deaths after that see Fauci’s estimate

doesn’t sound like a good solution to me...
meanwhile Korea has about 1% of our infection rate
because they used the WHO test instead of wasting time endeavoring to develop their own
and aggressive contact tracing and quarantine instead of lying to the public about Covid
yeah, 1% of our numbers...
i dunno bout you, but I like their numbers better
too bad we didn’t do that instead of calling it a hoax to hurt Trump’s campaign

yup, I’m hunkered down, and look like a character out of Andromeda strain when I have to go out into stores filled with virus protestors

but, my odds of being alive next year are MUCH greater than yours, because I am taking MAXIMUM precautions
because that is the logical thing to do
cuz no freakin way, am I gonna drink the Kool-Aid like you

[Faux Pas]

you’ll need to suffer between 1 and 2 million deaths to get the USA to the level of herd immunity
and there will still be hundreds of thousands more deaths after that see Fauci’s estimate

doesn’t sound like a good solution to me...
meanwhile Korea has about 1% of our infection rate
because they used the WHO test instead of wasting time endeavoring to develop their own
and aggressive contact tracing and quarantine instead of lying to the public about Covid
yeah, 1% of our numbers...
i dunno bout you, but I like their numbers better
too bad we didn’t do that instead of calling it a hoax to hurt Trump’s campaign

yup, I’m hunkered down, and look like a character out of Andromeda strain when I have to go out into stores filled with virus protestors

but, my odds of being alive next year are MUCH greater than yours, because I am taking MAXIMUM precautions
because that is the logical thing to do
cuz no freakin way, am I gonna drink the Kool-Aid like you

Fauci's advice has been as wrong almost as much as Moobs the forum expert here. That's been a lot. When this shit is over we'll see how wrong you or I have been. All previous pandemics have relied on immunity to a large degree to get it under and maintain control of it.

If there's anyone between you and I swimming in the kool-aid that, would be you parroting of I hate Trump Get your head out of your ass. You ain't this stupid. Your "hate Trump" offensive only makes you look like the fool I'm beginning to believe you are.

Korea's response means dick. This is the USofA and this is where we are now. If you had the slightest grip on reality (which you do not) you'd know that

[GQBlues]

Korea suffered the same strain as did the west coast in the US, which FWIW, had the same infection impact as those in Washington, Oregon, California...Korea was spared the type of European strain.
 

[msmob]

And then there's the forum and world expert with contacts across the globe from his mum's basement that just keeps rebounding with nothing. Time and time again, nothing.

How many are going to have to die yearly from repeating this pandemic if we stay in lock down, continually suppressing immunity and do not gain herd immunity? What say you Mr. Expert?

Unlike you, I'm not claiming 'expertise' ...  I'm asking your 'expertise' re your suggestion of  'herd immunity' .. ?

[Gator]

[quote author=krimster2 link=topic=24136.msg535471#msg535471 date=1590071006

NO he hasn't, Trump is doing JUST ONE JOB right now, and that's running his campaign, EVERYTHING he is doing relates to that

[/quote]

I believe he is trying to find the balance between public health and the economy.  If he does well, he will be reelected. 

it's been estimated, that Trump's firing the doctor in charge of the federal vaccine program for his refusing to promote hydroxychloroquine cost the federal government 6 months of vaccine development time

I watch the news on both sides and have heard nothing about losing any time, much less 6 months.   To the contrary, Dr. Bright complained the US was moving too fast.   Since his removal from head of BARDA, that authority's funding has accelerated.  It seems we would have lost 6 months if Dr. Bright had not been removed. 

As far as other matters, I watched the interview of Dr. Bright and he revealed nothing that had not already been revealed by others.   

So dip into your bag of lies and find another one.  This Dr. Bright dog ain't hunting.   

Trump's negligence has cost 10s of thousands of American lives but that doesn't fit into your mind, because you are complicit in his crimes because you voted for him
you are an accessory to the preventable deaths of thousands of your own countrymen

You say this only because in February-March you predicted an apocalypse and overreacted.  You rearranged your life, family, home, and job.  Not only that, you redeployed your wealth in preparation of an apocalypse and now realize you were wrong.  The apocalypse is not going to happen.  Good for us, sad for you.  Ready to eat your stockpile of freeze dried food?   

you want to have your voice, your freedom, but want to deny these rights to those who don't believe in Trump
that DEFINITELY makes you a Repiublicon

Haven't you been reading the recent news.  It is the Democrats who are being found guilty of wrongdoing and lying, not Trump.     

step 1 for the USA to pull out of this mess, is to get rid of Trump in Nov

It could happen.  But why would the US put their faith in Biden, the man cheer leading the Chinese for decades as our jobs went to China? 

You should look for a Third Party. You remind me of a Third Party kind of guy.     

[krimster2]

"The apocalypse is not going to happen."

what?
silly me, here I am thinking the apocalypse is actually ALREADY WELL underway
and that we are currently only about 3 months into the 5-7 year period which ends with the TOTAL collapse of the USA
if you are alive next year at this time, it will be abundantly clear to you by then
so your judgement is just a wee bit premature

corrupt democrats - cuz Trump called them that, what other evidence do YOU need, right?
this whole thing of rednecks loving them some Trump just blows my mind

[Gator]

corrupt democrats - cuz Trump called them that, what other evidence do YOU need, right?
this whole thing of rednecks loving them some Trump just blows my mind

Mr. Apocalypse,

You can have the last word.  I prefer to read about positive developments than argue with a telephone pole (i. e., you).   

Do you know around the globe there are over 100 different COVID-19 vaccines  in some state of R&D?   

[krimster2]

Somewhere over the rainbow
Way up high
vaccines are being developed
my oh my...
and work really will make you free-eeeee

[BillyB]

PROMISING NEWS ON SECOND VACCINE

Three days ago Moderna released human test data showing very promising news in developing a vaccine, and the stock market jumped up.  Today comes promising news on a second vaccine that is now in Phase 2 trials with two Phase 3 trials planned to commence soon:

Moderna may turn out to be a big phony although their stock is skyrocketing. Moderna got $483 million from the federal government to work on vaccines. They been in business only 10 years and regularly put out good news and the good work they're doing by press release which helps boost their stock. They've never in their history created a vaccine or therapeutic drug that's been approved for anything.

http://www.yahoo.com/gma/science-press-release-sudden-rise-vaccine-developer-moderna-193102158--abc-news-topstories.html

Here's what they're working on. Only a few things of theirs made it to phase two and nothing of theirs ever made it to phase three.

http://www.modernatx.com/pipeline

[Gator]

Moderna may turn out to be a big phony although their stock is skyrocketing.

I am not sure of your point. 

Many biotechs are in the same situation as Moderna, nothing but promise.  Unlike "wildcatters" of the  mid-20th Century, the promise of these companies is supported by science.  Part of the slow development results from the complex, methodical and measured regulatory environment.

If you are saying this vaccine has a way to go before being ready for mass use, you are correct.

If you are saying this vaccine will never be proven safe and effective, you should use your pharmaceutical brilliance to consult for biotechs to help them decide which medicines they should pursue.     

[BillyB]

I am not sure of your point. 

Many biotechs are in the same situation as Moderna, nothing but promise. 

There are biotech companies that put out vaccines every year, especially for the flu. They don't press release the good news of their vaccines that haven't even made it to the market because they know most attempts at creating vaccines fail.

If you are saying this vaccine will never be proven safe and effective, you should use your pharmaceutical brilliance to consult for biotechs to help them decide which medicines they should pursue.     

I'm saying don't bet on a new guy who's never won a race to win the race of the century. If anybody invested in Moderna, dump the stock before the winner is determined.

When it comes to vaccines being safe and effective, the overwhelming majority invented are not safe and effective and are discarded. Even the majority vaccines given to people because they're deemed safe are not effective. The yearly flu vaccine is often less than 50% effective.

http://www.insider.com/how-effective-is-the-flu-shot

[Gator]

There are biotech companies ....

You don't understand biotech.  You are not alone. 

[Shadow]

You don't understand biotech.  You are not alone.

While I  hav not looked in to this, BillyB has a point. There are still a number of companies getting nvestment on bad science and empty promises. It would not be strange to see one of these bubble companies jump on to the current need.

[Gator]

While I  hav not looked in to this, BillyB has a point. There are still a number of companies getting nvestment on bad science and empty promises. It would not be strange to see one of these bubble companies jump on to the current need.

For sure, biotech is mostly composed of speculative stocks other than companies such as Amgen (AMGN). 

Billy evidently chooses not to speculate at all, and that would probably be considered prudent by his accountant.    Nor would I criticize it.  Each person has their own risk tolerance for investing.  At Billy's age, IMO he should have no more than 10% of his stock portfolio invested in speculative stocks, and biotech is only one choice.