Life Changes...Part Deux Part 2

[Misha]

Misha-

The concept is good and well but I think at the present time, complete reliance on photovoltaic technology as an energy source to produce electricity, for a country the size of Germany, is still a pipe dream unless the powers that be can find a much better way to streamline it and triple the outage at the same time. It's just not feasible at the present time and maybe not in the near future.

As of 2011, of the various ways Germany generated their electricity, less than 3% came as a result of photovoltaic technology means. Little to no reliance on oil and only 14% came from NG. Nearly a quarter came from brown coal, or Lignite. Almost 50% from coal (hard/brown). The US's main source, like Germany, is still coal.

http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/p/pow-gen-ger.htm

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3

We are part of a band of companies that are installing/installed massive amounts of panels (thermal/photovoltaic) in the Mojave desert in hundreds of square miles and while it can support all the electricity needs of a good size city - that city is not anywhere the size of Los Angeles, much less a country like Germany. In the meantime, signs of serious environmental issues are starting to rear its ugly head and changing the face of the Mojaves as we know it.

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/take-a-look-at-the-worlds-largest-solar-thermal-farm-91577483/?no-ist

The site you provided is a nice little marketing presentation. And while the concept and potential is definitely promising, the technology is just not quite there yet to be blowing on the trumpet it can fully replace the same production of NG / coal, or worst, both.

 

The thing is that you don't have to replace all your energy sources, just enough to replace one supplier or at the very least buy less over time. GAZPROM is spending tens of billions building pipelines. They can't afford to have Europe buying less and less natural gas...

[Misha]

Putin has already factored in what you said and what everyone else has been saying.

How exactly are you channeling Putin? Do you have him on speed dial?


This from The New Yorker:


"You might take Putin’s brandishing of the gas weapon as a shrewd geopolitical move. But it’s a classic case of putting short-term interests ahead of long-term gain. Although the region’s need for Gazprom supplies may strengthen his hand in the present, the strategy is forcing Europe to end its reliance on Russia. After the crises of 2006 and 2009, Europe increased imports from Norway and Qatar. It built new facilities for receiving liquefied natural gas, and upgraded storage capacity, so that supplies could be stockpiled in case of a cutoff. It imported more coal. Pipeline connections within the E.U. were improved, making shortages easier to alleviate. The Crimea crisis will give new impetus to these efforts. The U.K.’s foreign secretary has said that the crisis is likely to make Europe “recast” its approach to energy. A draft document prepared for a forthcoming E.U. summit deplored the Continent’s “high energy dependency” and called on E.U. members to diversify their supplies. These moves are reminiscent of what happened after the oil crises of the nineteen-seventies made it clear to the West and Japan that relying on opec suppliers was foolish. Europe installed energy-saving technologies and invested heavily in nuclear energy and natural gas. France built fifty-six nuclear reactors in the fifteen years after the oil embargo of 1973."


http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2014/03/24/140324ta_talk_surowiecki


And, this from the BBC:


"Russian reliance?
Russia is Europe's biggest supplier of natural gas, but the continent has been weaning itself off dependence on its neighbour for the last decade.


It now imports less than 30% of its natural gas from Russia, compared with 45% in 2003, according to European Union statistics."


In other words, Russian exports to Europe are down by almost a third in roughly a decade 


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26418664

[Gator]

These moves are reminiscent of what happened after the oil crises of the nineteen-seventies made it clear to the West and Japan that relying on opec suppliers was foolish. Europe installed energy-saving technologies and invested heavily in nuclear energy and natural gas. France built fifty-six nuclear reactors in the fifteen years after the oil embargo of 1973."

Oil spiked from less than $20/bbl before 1973 to $70+ by 1980 as OPEC flexed its muscle, Iran had a revolution, and Iraq invaded Iran.

Prices declined in the mid-1980s and 1990s, reaching $20/bbl again due to the natural gas and nuclear investments mentioned above coming on line, increased drilling,  the peace initiative, etc. 

9-11 ushered in price increases, reaching nearly $100/bbl by 2008 as OPEC cut 4 mm bbl/day,  drilling programs curtailed, etc. 

It now imports less than 30% of its natural gas from Russia, compared with 45% in 2003, according to European Union statistics."

I did not realize that Europe has reduced its dependence so significantly.   The major point is that much can be done to drive gas prices down and hurt Russia's economy severely.  Russia should work for stability, and instead it is creating instability.

[Misha]

I did not realize that Europe has reduced its dependence so significantly.   The major point is that much can be done to drive gas prices down and hurt Russia's economy severely.  Russia should work for stability, and instead it is creating instability.

Few do I wager. It was all done quietly, under the radar, no chest-thumping, no youth groups organized to denounced Putin, and this when Europe was only annoyed with Russia... Imagine what the numbers will look like in a decade now that all of Europe is teed off with Putin  All the while the export to Europe have been going down, Russia has been pumping money into building pipelines that are not needed with ridiculous sums certainly being embezzled to create surplus capacity that nobody needs just to be able to one day spite Ukraine. Then, Putin decides to annex a chunk of Ukraine which will only push Europe to work that much harder to ensure that even less natural gas is bought from Russia. In which parallel universe would that be evidence of shrewd planning and a genius strategy?

[jone]

Misha,

He's on a dead end street.  He's looking for a way out.  The only way leads to war. 

Reminds me of the US restricting exports to Japan in the 1930s.  Prior to WWII, Japan imported 90% of its oil.  80% was coming from the United States.  Even after Manchuria, 60% came from the US.

Putin is on the same collision course.  His only source of hard currency is the oil/gas exports.  He should be a super salesman.  Instead he has alienated his best customers.

Now he has to decide what options lay in front of him.  As the old KGB agent he is, he can only point fingers and ramp up the rhetoric.  But at some point, he is going to have to strike.

Gone are the days of the Soviet Empire.  The Eastern European breadbasket is no longer Russia's for the plunder.  Instead, Putin has no where to go except to keep building his country to a fever pitch.   The only way to satisfy such intensity is to lash out at another country.  Right now, Ukraine is on the slab, ready to be carved up.

[Gator]

 In which parallel universe would that be evidence of shrewd planning and a genius strategy?

The universe that contains the planet Iconoclast. 

[lonedrake]

Billy,

 Earlier in this thread I said I would let you know about the PC200LC hydraulic overheating. We had a tech out and the only thing we could find is bad hydraulic oil. The manual states to change it at 5,000 hours. Since it has 2,900 hours it had never been done. I got 110 gallons of oil from Komatsu. 14.00 a gallon. I changed it...ran it about 6 hours and changed it again. I drove it at max power 2 miles last week. Engine temp came up but hydraulic oil stayed cool. Granted the air temp was only 20 degree F., but I believe it has been fixed. Tech said pump noise is normal as the system ages.

[BillyB]

I'll wrap up my road trip report after taking a long break from it. Here are some more photos of our days in Las Vegas and I'll post some later of us at national parks.

Billy,

 Earlier in this thread I said I would let you know about the PC200LC hydraulic overheating. We had a tech out and the only thing we could find is bad hydraulic oil. The manual states to change it at 5,000 hours. Since it has 2,900 hours it had never been done. I got 110 gallons of oil from Komatsu. 14.00 a gallon. I changed it...ran it about 6 hours and changed it again. I drove it at max power 2 miles last week. Engine temp came up but hydraulic oil stayed cool. Granted the air temp was only 20 degree F., but I believe it has been fixed. Tech said pump noise is normal as the system ages.

Thanks for the update. I would've never thought bad hydraulic oil would cause overheating because I've never changed hydraulic oil. It does make sense that bad oil can cause overheating. If oil goes bad, it loses it's properties and one of those properties is lubrication. Less lubrication means increased friction from moving parts which creates heat.

[BillyB]

We were at the fairgrounds for a Spring fair last month and my wife asked my father if she could drive his Corvette and he said "yes." My wife jumped for joy and gave him a big long hug and kissed him on the cheek. An elderly lady was standing next to my friend with her eyes and mouth wide open in a state of shock. She turned to my friend in disbelief and my friend pointed to my father and said "He's loaded!" My father asked if he had lipstick on his cheek to wipe off and I said "no" so he walked around the fair with lipstick on his cheek the whole time.


My wife when out to the dance club last night with my niece. She told me today that men sometimes can't take "no" for an answer when they ask her to dance. My wife and my niece made an agreement to tell everybody who asks for a dance to say they're lesbians. That worked. Guys moved on immediately instead of begging repeatedly for a dance.


Sometimes I read pro Russian posters and Russians refer to west Ukrainians as "fascists" and "Nazis". I was in a store the other day and the cashier had the sexy accent. I asked what's her nationality and she said "Russian". I asked her what she thought about what's going on in Ukraine and she said "The fascists are trying to take over. They are very violent people." I know she probably subscribes to Russian channels on cable or satellite tv so I didn't argue with her but I've been to west Ukraine a few times and never felt threaten being a minority.

[BillyB]

My wife made a friend in college she goes out with 2-3 times a week. Her friend is a Russian lady who met her Ukrainian husband on the internet. I've heard of a few cases where Russian and Ukrainian men search back home for a wife and bring them over. Maybe they don't like American women too?


I was surprised my wife made a friend from Russia because she grew up hating them since her grandfather spent a portion of his life in a Russian gulag and getting some of his body parts mangled.  I helped my wife get over her prejudices against Russian people. I told her it's the governments fault, not the people of Russia for what happened to her grandfather so don't blame it on a nation's citizens. Her and her friend get along fine and they don't talk about the current situation between Russia and Ukraine back home.


Occasionally it's talked about on the forum that RW tend to be direct and brutally honest when speaking which can insult the average westerner. In their communications class the word "Nigger" was talked about. Some blacks said they don't like when white people say that word for. When it was my wife's Russian friend turn to speak, she said "Why should we stop using it when you don't stop using it?" She went on to say blacks use this word in social conversations and in music and told them if they want to end the use of the word, they need to start with themselves before asking others to stop using it. My wife said, all the blacks in the class went silent, probably because her friend embarrassed them.


Here's a pic of my wife at the National Monuments from our road trip last year.

[fathertime]

 


Occasionally it's talked about on the forum that RW tend to be direct and brutally honest when speaking which can insult the average westerner. In their communications class the word "Nigger" was talked about. Some blacks said they don't like when white people say that word for. When it was my wife's Russian friend turn to speak, she said "Why should we stop using it when you don't stop using it?" She went on to say blacks use this word in social conversations and in music and told them if they want to end the use of the word, they need to start with themselves before asking others to stop using it. My wife said, all the blacks in the class went silent, probably because her friend embarrassed them.

 

I was listening in on a conversation between a black youth and a white youth....the black guy said he was surprised when he heard a white guy using the word 'nigger'...BUT he thought the guy had guts and gave him respect for having the courage to use the word so freely in the presence of blacks.  I can't bring myself to use the word myself, and i can always find better words to use when talking so i don't need to use it.  I've interacted quite a bit with blacks myself, and given the way they have often been raised they give respect to people who have guts enough to talk straight/blunt with them and not start backpedaling out of fear or political correctness...at least that has been my experience.


Fathertime! 

[BillyB]

My MIL is back after 4 months in Ukraine. She was almost sent back home after the border officer at the airport told her she needs to be out of America more than 6 months before coming back to visit. The third border officer she talked to remembered her and let her in for a 6 month stay but told her to stay out of the country for a year before coming back otherwise her visa could get revoked. I've heard of people leaving America for a few days or weeks and returning and being accused of living here on a tourist visa but not 4 months. Anybody have any problems with their in laws returning too soon on tourist visas?

[ML]

I was listening in on a conversation between a black youth and a white youth....the black guy said he was surprised when he heard a white guy using the word 'nigger'

Are you aware that blacks use the N word all the time when in company of other blacks?

It really is not at all bad to them.

It (alleged hurt) is just something to be used to get sympathy from others.

Back before the late 1960s, it was a big 'no, no' to say the word 'cop.'

But then, police started to embrace the term, and it lost it's 'no, no' character.

Same could happen with the N word if logic were to prevail.

[mies]

My MIL is back after 4 months in Ukraine. She was almost sent back home after the border officer at the airport told her she needs to be out of America more than 6 months before coming back to visit. The third border officer she talked to remembered her and let her in for a 6 month stay but told her to stay out of the country for a year before coming back otherwise her visa could get revoked. I've heard of people leaving America for a few days or weeks and returning and being accused of living here on a tourist visa but not 4 months. Anybody have any problems with their in laws returning too soon on tourist visas?

If I am not mistaken, the law says that on a tourist visa a person can be in US not more than 1/2 of the year (or 1 day less than 6 months or something like that). If a person stayed longer on tourist visa - then they violated their status in the country.
It's not about how often a person travels. It's about how much total in 1 year a tourist spends in USA.   

[Drew]

It's not about how often a person travels. It's about how much total in 1 year a tourist spends in USA.

Not quite true.  The people at passport control have great authority to determine who they let in.  A visa does not guarantee entry, a point that is not  known to a large percentage of international travelers.  In reality a visa actually only almost guarantees the airlines will let you board the plane in the foreign country heading for USA. 

Of course, in most cases, the visa holders do get passage into USA or whatever country it is.  But passport control people can deny entry to any visa holder if they have reason to do so.

They can view with suspicion a person who comes and goes frequently, give them a hard time, and even deny entry.  I am not a frequent traveler myself, but I am at a university and know from experience of our foreign students that this does happen.

There are different enforcement rules regarding frequent in and out for Canadians and Mexicans who come and go because many of them are in business situations, etc.

[calmissile]

If I am not mistaken, the law says that on a tourist visa a person can be in US not more than 1/2 of the year (or 1 day less than 6 months or something like that). If a person stayed longer on tourist visa - then they violated their status in the country.
It's not about how often a person travels. It's about how much total in 1 year a tourist spends in USA.

My wife has a 5 year multi-entry tourist visa.  When we last came to the US from Ukraine we asked about the multi-entry part.  The lady in customs/immigration said that she can stay 90 days at a time, but if she were to be going back and forth frequently, they could accuse her of living in the US and pull her visa.  Still sounds subjective as she did not quote any exact requirements.

Question..... When and where do you request for the length of stay?   The first time coincided with her visa application (requested 30 days and was granted 30 days).  As I recall, her visa has an expiration of 5 years however the stamp had a date of 30 days from the arrival date.  Once you have the tourist visa, do you need to notify the embassy prior to subsequent trips?

[BillyB]

If I am not mistaken, the law says that on a tourist visa a person can be in US not more than 1/2 of the year (or 1 day less than 6 months or something like that). If a person stayed longer on tourist visa - then they violated their status in the country.
It's not about how often a person travels. It's about how much total in 1 year a tourist spends in USA.

Border control officers have lots of discretion. They can even let someone on a tourist visa stay in America for a full year.


There are certain guidelines border patrol officers use and if they stay in America too long per year, they can send the person back home. My MIL almost got sent back home this time around. Before she returned home after her first visit here, I talked to a high level border patrol officer about the revolution in Ukraine and if it got dangerous, I wanted to change the ticket to another country and have her return in a few days. He said he and the officers at the airport understands these situations and would not send her home or cancel her tourist visa. They would do those things if they believe the person is trying to live in America. Technically a tourist visa is only good for a tourist visa and war is not an excuse to violate a visa but they do have lots discretion to use.

My wife has a 5 year multi-entry tourist visa.  When we last came to the US from Ukraine we asked about the multi-entry part.  The lady in customs/immigration said that she can stay 90 days at a time, but if she were to be going back and forth frequently, they could accuse her of living in the US and pull her visa.  Still sounds subjective as she did not quote any exact requirements.

That lady is wrong but sometimes officials talk like that to scare people. 6 months is the default amount of time they give to tourists. If you do 6 months, wait more than 6 months before trying another 6 months. My MIL almost got in trouble for returning too soon.

Question..... When and where do you request for the length of stay?   The first time coincided with her visa application (requested 30 days and was granted 30 days).  As I recall, her visa has an expiration of 5 years however the stamp had a date of 30 days from the arrival date.  Once you have the tourist visa, do you need to notify the embassy prior to subsequent trips?

You don't need to notify anybody or make a request for length of stay. If you buy a ticket for someone on a tourist visa, the officer will give a length of stay based on the arrival and return dates of the ticket. If the person is to stay in America for 3 weeks, the officer will probably allow that person to stay in America for a month. My MIL is supposed to stay just under 6 months but she's good for 6 months. Last time she was here, her stay was 5 months but they gave her permission to stay 6 months.

[calmissile]

Thanks for the info.  I will have the return date on the tickets set for 3 or 6 months.

[BillyB]

Thanks for the info.  I will have the return date on the tickets set for 3 or 6 months.

Never shoot for the full 6 months. Allow a few days or weeks for unforeseen circumstances such as illness which could delay a return home.

[calmissile]

Never shoot for the full 6 months. Allow a few days or weeks for unforeseen circumstances such as illness which could delay a return home.

Good idea, thanks.

[mies]

No updates for quite a while... is A. pregnant by any chance?

[lordtiberius]

Yes.  That is out of character