Ukraine-The Future

[Boethius]

Interview with a Ukrainian patriot -

Josef Zissels is the chairman of the General Council of the Euro-Asian Jewish Congress. He is sitting in the middle of a long table in the Ukrainian Restaurant in downtown New York. Before him is a bowl of borscht. As he eats, he shares his views of the current crisis in Ukraine with nine specialists and activists.


Zissels does not mince words. “There is no civil war in Ukraine,” he says. “There is a Russian aggression supported by local collaborators.” The war with Russia will be “long,” and Ukraine needs to construct a “militarist economy” like Israel’s. The Maidan Revolution had nothing to do with ethnicity, language, or religion. It was a “civilizational conflict” between those Ukrainians who supported Europe and those who supported Russia.

Zissels is 69-year-old former dissident with prison sentences to prove it. .  . His dissident activity in both the Jewish and democratic movements began in the 1970s; in 1978, he joined the Ukrainian Helsinki Group. That same year, he received his first three-year prison sentence. In 1984, he got three more years.  . . 

Asked about the controversial Azov volunterr regiment, whose leader is a neo-Nazi, Zissels brushes off the implication that the entire unit shares his extremist views. Perhaps 30 or 40 do, he says, but the important thing is that all the volunteers, including the Jews fighting in Azov, are on the front lines. Their ideological predilections don’t matter, he emphasizes, as they’re all united in defending their country against Russia.

In a July 6, 2014, interview in Toronto, Zissels openly associated himself with the controversial term zhydobandera, which the Ukrainian Jewish oligarch Igor Kolomoisky popularized by wearing on a T-shirt. (The term is a conjunction of zhyd, a word that can mean both “Jew” and “kike,” and the surname of Stepan Bandera, a Ukrainian nationalist, that according to Soviet and Russian propaganda was a synonym for fascist. Hence, zhydobandera is the equivalent of both “Jew-Ukrainian nationalist” and “kike-fascist.”) According to Zissels, “Back in 1978 when they were imprisoning me, the KGB couldn’t understand me: ‘as a Jew he should be a Zionist.’ They had these stereotypes, but I became part of the Ukrainian Helsinki Group, a Ukrainian national group, and therefore back then I was already a zhydobandera.”

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/ukrainian-jewish-leader-russian-aggression

[Boethius]

An article on Ukraine's economic future -
http://www.dw.de/ukraine-another-crisis-for-europes-bread-basket/a-18365197

[lordtiberius]

An article on Ukraine's economic future -
http://www.dw.de/ukraine-another-crisis-for-europes-bread-basket/a-18365197

Some problems I have with the article:

The Chinese deal may not have been the best way to do it because essentially what it did was cede control of an area of Ukraine to China. It was, however, a way of bringing Chinese investment into Ukraine. Simply cancelling, tearing up these agreements is not going to be a way of attracting more Chinese investment into Ukraine and it is not going to make a good impression on other potential investors.

If the Chicoms want Ukraine so bad, send the arms shipments over.

If Greece, Spain and Italy are any indication of what the EU can do, I don't think Ukraine has much of an economic future.

[Boethius]

The better half has been telling me for some time, long before that China deal, that agricultural land was the "only thing of value left to steal" in the country.  I think the Yanukovych clan had already counted the money to be divided from that deal.  So of course it has to be overturned. 
 
In most Canadian provinces, foreigners cannot own agricultural land.  There should be a similar restriction in Ukraine.  Foreigners can lease it, but not own that land.  It should remain a national asset for the local population.

[calmissile]

The better half has been telling me for some time, long before that China deal, that agricultural land was the "only thing of value left to steal" in the country.  I think the Yanukovych clan had already counted the money to be divided from that deal.  So of course it has to be overturned. 

In most Canadian provinces, foreigners cannot own agricultural land.  There should be a similar restriction in Ukraine. Foreigners can lease it, but not own that land.  It should remain a national asset for the local population.

Agree 100%.  I thought that the restrictions on foreign ownership of farmland was already embedded in the law.  I looked into it a couple years ago and that is my recollection.  I believe it was a distinction of whether the land had been 'privatized' yet.

[Boethius]

The law was changed the year before the Chinese deal.  The Ukrainian company involved in the deal denied the land was sold.  Chinese reports were that the land had, in fact, been sold.
 
Even before that change in law, though, there were ways to get around the restrictions, ways that would not fly in a country with a rule of law.

[lordtiberius]

International law is very clear.  Treaties are only valid if both nations agree to the terms.  Nations vacate treaties all the time.  Regimes change.  Assassinations, coups, royal succession, and elections signal a possibility that treaties previously agreed to are valid or not.  Or nations can simply change their minds. 

China has a reputation of ignoring international law when the circumstances do not suit it.  Maybe it will elect to work with the current Kiev government or maybe it will collect the terms of the deal in Moscow with the Novorossiya government.  Either way, sucks to be you Chicoms.

[JayH]

A lot is being written on different aspects of Ukraines problems- another article that raises salient points of interest.

What the West Owes Ukraine

WASHINGTON, DC – Ukraine may not be grabbing as many headlines now as it did a year ago, but the crisis there is far from over. The latest ceasefire agreement, concluded in Minsk in February, has contained, but not stopped, Russian military aggression. And, though the stabilization program that Ukraine agreed with the International Monetary Fund last month is superior to last year’s deal – this one includes both more financing from the IMF and a more credible economic-reform plan from the government – it will be insufficient to repair the country’s economy. What Ukraine really needs is to escape the old Soviet order – and, for that, it needs the West’s help.

AND MORE
It needs more strategic support as well. European politicians’ overwhelming opposition to supplying Ukraine with defensive arms is difficult to fathom. Europe’s leaders claim that they want to avoid giving Russia reason to escalate its war on Ukraine. But that is already happening, and Ukraine’s fight against Russia is, after all, a defense of core European values – and, indeed, of Europe itself. The EU flag has draped the caskets of Ukrainians killed in that fight.
]
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/west-economic-aid-ukraine-by-anders--slund-2015-04#tzfl9PwOjMh4rSrx.99

[lordtiberius]

The West should at a minimum pay Ukraine . . .

[JayH]

Some of the advice and ideas under consideration have come into view. It does contain some reasonable assessments of the current situation and some potential future goals for Ukraine.

George Soros’ “Plan” For Ukraine Reportedly Leaked

A hacking group claims it has penetrated Ukraine’s presidential administration website and obtained correspondence between George Soros and Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko.

The hacktivists have published three files online, which include a draft of “A short and medium term comprehensive strategy for the new Ukraine - George soros” by Soros (dated March 12, 2015); an undated paper on military assistance to Kiev; and thebillionaire’s letter to Poroshenko and Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk, dated December 23, 2014.


1/Putin prefers a financial collapse and political infighting that would destabilize all of Ukraine to a military victory that would give him control over part of Ukraine. This is corroborated by the fact that he twice converted a military victory to a cease-fire that recognized the facts on the ground without depriving him of his first mover advantage.

2/Minsk 2 brings Putin close to attaining his preferred outcome. He is now reverting to military de-escalation in the belief that he has accomplished his mission and in the hope that he can avoid a renewal of the economic sanctions when they expire in July.

3/The financial and political deterioration of Ukraine makes Putin the winner. This is doomed to continue or accelerate unless Ukraine and its allies can agree on a comprehensive strategy that will deprive Putin of his first-mover advantage. Just as Putin does not obtain Merkel’s and Hollande’s signature before executing his strategy, the same applies in reverse to the strategy below.

II. The Strategy

Ukrainian and allied leaders should agree on the following principles:

In the absence of adequate support from its allies, the new Ukraine is no match for Putin’s Russia.

It is in the collective self-interest of Ukraine’s allies to enable the new Ukraine not only to survive but to prosper; and as long as they can agree on a way of providing adequate support without getting involved in a direct military conflict, they should be able to prevail against Putin’s Russia.

While it would be more desirable to have Russia as a partner than an enemy, that is impossible as long as Putin persists in his current policies.


 
It will be much more costly, particularly for Europe, to defend itself against the threat that a victorious Putin regime will pose when the new Ukraine collapses, than to provide adequate support to the new Ukraine while it is still alive.

Keeping the new Ukraine alive and helping it to succeed should take precedence over sanctions against Russia. Sanctions must be maintained and if necessary strengthened as long as Putin persists in overt military attacks on Ukrainian soil; but they harm not only the Russian but also the European and global economy. They also reinforce Putin’s narrative that blames Russia’s problems entirely on the implacable hostility of the ‘West’. This helps him to retain the support of the Russian people and to consolidate his power. By contrast, a functioning democracy in Ukraine that manages to reform its economy even in the midst of Russian aggression would turn Putin’s narrative into a lie that no amount of propaganda could cover up. More and more Russians would want to follow Ukraine’s example.

Therefore Ukraine’s allies should treat Ukraine as a defense priority, not as another Greece. They should declare that they will do whatever it takes to help the new Ukraine succeed short of getting involved in direct military confrontation with Russia or violating the Minsk agreement.

III. The short-term: the next three months

What Ukraine must deliver

Restore the fighting capacity of Ukraine without violating the Minsk agreement.

Restore some semblance of currency stability and a functioning banking system.

Maintain unity among the various branches of government.

Preserve the institutional integrity and independence of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)

Provide tangible evidence that the government knows where the leaks in the budget are and knows how to stop them.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/06/george-soros-ukraine-emails/

Kyiv Post story here--
George Soros' 'plan' for Ukraine reportedly leaked


http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/value-walk-george-soros-plan-for-ukraine-reportedly-leaked-390081.html

[JayH]

Despite what the naysayers promote as the norm in Ukraine- and despite having to deal with the invasion by Russia and the subsequent huge disruption to every aspect of government-progress is being made.


A crackdown on corruption is boosting investment and growth, even as Ukraine contends with Russian aggression.

We’re Making Steady Progress in Ukraine, Despite Putin


By PETRO POROSHENKO
June 10, 2015 7:19 p.m. ET
When I became president of Ukraine a year ago this month, Crimea had been annexed, the country was standing on the brink of war and—after more than 20 years of Soviet-style governance, endemic corruption, cronyism and inefficient policy—our economy was sliding into decay.



http://www.wsj.com/articles/were-making-steady-progress-in-ukraine-despite-putin-1433978351

[JayH]

The sentiments have been written about before--but it is the clearest pointer to the future

Putin the uniter

The war has made most Ukrainians see Russians as enemies, not friends


MIKHAIL ZABRODSKY, the broad-shouldered commander of Ukraine’s airborne troops, came of age in the Soviet Union. After the Soviet collapse he even served in the Russian army. When he moved home to Ukraine he stayed in touch. “We were all friends,” he says, shaking his head. When Russia turned its guns on Ukraine last year, Mr Zabrodsky “couldn’t believe it.” He was not alone.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21654663-war-has-made-most-ukrainians-see-russians-enemies-not-friends-putin-uniter

[JayH]

Greece is a deadbeat nation, Puerto Rico is a party that lives beyond its means, but last year war-torn Ukraine made more interest payments to its lenders than it spent trying to defend itself against Russia.

Ukraine’s extenuating circumstances – the struggle against Russian-perpetrated corruption at home and Russian aggression along its eastern border – warrants a shift in the IMF’s debt restructuring posture.

IMF holds key to helping Ukraine escape from Russia’s stranglehold

Ukraine is not another Greece or Puerto Rico
Ukraine’s war and government shake-up has been the backdrop to debt talks, but should be center stage next week in Washington. Another sizable payment is due in July and the IMF must be tough with lenders.

They should be reminded that technically, under the Geneva Convention, Ukraine is an occupied country. Such a designation would result in the suspension of debt payments and would entitle the country to gigantic reparations from Russia.

Unfortunately, becoming an “occupied country” under the Geneva Convention requires approval by the United Nations where Russia enjoys a veto on the Security Council that, if exercised, would require General Assembly approval and take months
All of these complications burden Ukraine and should not. The IMF is the key to getting Ukraine out from under Russia’s stranglehold.
Ukrainians deserve no less. So does the world.




http://business.financialpost.com/diane-francis/imf-holds-key-to-helping-ukraine-escape-from-russias-stranglehold

[cc3]

The Washington Post poses the question, 'Will we let Ukraine die?" (unusually for a 'progressive' newspaper, the WP supports defensive arms for UA.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-dangerous-neglect-of-ukraine/2015/07/05/37d08050-20cf-11e5-84d5-eb37ee8eaa61_story.html?wpisrc=nl_opinions&wpmm=1

[Faux Pas]

Yes Greece has been and is a sloth on the Europeon economy but, since the last bail out in 2010 they made the austerity cuts and did as directed by the IMF. Now they find themselves in a worse predicament than they were in in 2010. This is why they rejected another bailout. Impossible terms and impossible to pay back. The IMF is nothing but another international central banker. It's not to help struggling countries. Like all central bankers they are there to suck the life blood and available funds where even they can get a foot hold, for profit.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/how-europe-played-greece-we-would-rather-deal-with-corrupt-but-obedient-leaders-than-honest-ones-with-ideas-of-sovereignty/5460420

What Ukraine needs is arms which could easily be supplied by a number of Western countries with credit extended to Ukraine by that country. What it doesn't need is a dance with the devil (IMF). I would wager the reason the arms haven't been supplied to date is because the central bankers haven't permitted it. They are looking to do business.

Yeah it's just a hunch but, why else would Obama, Merkel or any other Western leader not help Ukraine defend themselves? Ukraine is desperate and will take the help anywhere it can get it. That's the precise condition the money lenders want them to be in

[Muzh]

Yes Greece has been and is a sloth on the Europeon economy but, since the last bail out in 2010 they made the austerity cuts and did as directed by the IMF. Now they find themselves in a worse predicament than they were in in 2010. This is why they rejected another bailout. Impossible terms and impossible to pay back. The IMF is nothing but another international central banker. It's not to help struggling countries. Like all central bankers they are there to suck the life blood and available funds where even they can get a foot hold, for profit.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/how-europe-played-greece-we-would-rather-deal-with-corrupt-but-obedient-leaders-than-honest-ones-with-ideas-of-sovereignty/5460420

What Ukraine needs is arms which could easily be supplied by a number of Western countries with credit extended to Ukraine by that country. What it doesn't need is a dance with the devil (IMF). I would wager the reason the arms haven't been supplied to date is because the central bankers haven't permitted it. They are looking to do business.

Yeah it's just a hunch but, why else would Obama, Merkel or any other Western leader not help Ukraine defend themselves? Ukraine is desperate and will take the help anywhere it can get it. That's the precise condition the money lenders want them to be in

Amen, bro!!

[fathertime]

Yes Greece has been and is a sloth on the Europeon economy but, since the last bail out in 2010 they made the austerity cuts and did as directed by the IMF. Now they find themselves in a worse predicament than they were in in 2010. This is why they rejected another bailout. Impossible terms and impossible to pay back. The IMF is nothing but another international central banker. It's not to help struggling countries. Like all central bankers they are there to suck the life blood and available funds where even they can get a foot hold, for profit.
 

Given the corrupt state of the IMF you purport, it is not a surprise that China (and its founding partners) have started it's own version of the IMF to even the scales a bit.  The US is 'concerned' about corruption of course...seems hypocritical, given your assessment.


Fathertime!   

[Faux Pas]

Against my better judgement but I will engage you this conversation FT

Given the corrupt state of the IMF you purport

,

Where did I state the IMF was corrupt? Please take your time. Corruption would be breaking the law, no? Who said they were breaking the law? What the IMF is, is a den of leeches and vipers, a profit driven central bank with the military might of the West behind it.

it is not a surprise that China (and its founding partners) have started it's own version of the IMF to even the scales a bit.

You somehow think a Chinese version of the IMF is going to be more humanitarian?

The US is 'concerned' about corruption of course...seems hypocritical, given your assessment.

Please explain where you divine this from my post?

[Faux Pas]

Greece's alternative is to tell the IMF to go f*&k themselves which essentially is what they did with the recent vote. What the IMF will do is cut the country off financially. Greece will have to fend for itself. Those measures will be very difficult. Likely the Greeks will cave. I hope they do not. Can they survive with limited import/export? Yes they can, but do they really want to?

[fathertime]

Against my better judgement but I will engage you this conversation FT
,

 

well FP if it is really against your better judgement, it is ok, you don't have to engage...

,

Where did I state the IMF was corrupt? Please take your time. Corruption would be breaking the law, no? Who said they were breaking the law? What the IMF is, is a den of leeches and vipers, a profit driven central bank with the military might of the West behind it.
 

Apparently I missed the spirit of your prior post by using the word 'corrupt'.  We can just substitute the words 'a den of leeches and vipers' into my prior post then, so your words aren't misrepresented.  My apologies.

 

You somehow think a Chinese version of the IMF is going to be more humanitarian?
 

Although phrased somewhat like a statement, you did put a question mark behind the post, making it a question. 


I would suspect that China is going to protect and expand it's own interests, and perhaps some good will come from it.  More humanitarian? We won't know how effective it is for a while. Competition for money yes, but with competition the end product usually improves out of necessity...so based in part on that, I conclude the Chinese infrastructure bank will be a positive for the world, but likely  harmful to us. 
Your thoughts?       

Please explain where you divine this from my post?

I can't respond to this, since my use of the word corruption was incorrectly read into what you intended by your earlier comments...regarding impossible payments terms.


Fathertime!   

[alex330]

Two thousand new police officers sworn in recently and pledged to not accept bribes. One out of five are said to be women.

[Faux Pas]

well FP if it is really against your better judgement, it is ok, you don't have to engage...



Apparently I missed the spirit of your prior post by using the word 'corrupt'.  We can just substitute the words 'a den of leeches and vipers' into my prior post then, so your words aren't misrepresented.  My apologies.



Although phrased somewhat like a statement, you did put a question mark behind the post, making it a question. 


I would suspect that China is going to protect and expand it's own interests, and perhaps some good will come from it.  More humanitarian? We won't know how effective it is for a while. Competition for money yes, but with competition the end product usually improves out of necessity...so based in part on that, I conclude the Chinese infrastructure bank will be a positive for the world, but likely  harmful to us. 
Your thoughts?       



I can't respond to this, since my use of the word corruption was incorrectly read into what you intended by your earlier comments...regarding impossible payments terms.


Fathertime!

Perhaps the word you were looking for was ethical? Moral? Neither of those apply when discussing any of the the banking cartels. They don't break the law (generally) because they make the law with corrupt politicians and yes, Washington is no different. If you think for a minute that China or Russia is different, think again.

My rant was against JayH's idea that Ukraine needs the IMF. It doesn't. In fact no country needs the IMF. The IMF and the other international banking cartels are nothing more that predatory lenders. The same guys that are willing to loan you money with your next paycheck as collateral but, on a grander scale. They don't give one rats ass about Ukraine, the deaths in Ukraine, Maidan or anything else. They only care about how much debt they can sink a country into and reap profit. There is nothing humanitarian about it.

There is plenty of truth to the idea that the top 1% control 90% of the worlds wealth. Their battles isn't in Ukraine or Greece or the US. Their battles are between themselves and how they will amass or steal the fortunes of the other 1% with the world as it's chess board

[JayH]

Greece isn’t the only European country teetering on the brink of default. In just a few weeks, Ukraine will probably also be forced to announce that it can’t pay some of its debts to private foreign creditors. A few weeks ago, the Ukrainian parliament passed a law authorizing the government to suspend payments to private foreign creditors. If its creditors don’t agree to a proposed debt restructuring, Ukraine’s government is likely to use that option.


Ukraine Is a Mess, But It’s Still No Greece



On the face of it, the two situations might appear rather similar — but a closer look reveals stark differences. The Greek default (and looming financial catastrophe) represents a panic-driven, populist rejection of any attempt to come to a negotiated deal with an increasingly skeptical Europe. Ukraine’s impending failure to pay its creditors, on the other hand, comes off as a regrettable but manageable bump in the road on the way to financial health.

The debts in question are owed by Ukraine not be to the IMF or the European Central Bank, but to a group of private creditors. In fact, the IMF has joined the government in Kiev in contending that the country’s debt burden (95 percent of the country’s GDP) is unsustainable and that the private creditors should agree to halve the outstanding debt.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/06/ukraine-is-a-mess-but-its-still-no-greece/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=%2AEditors%20Picks&utm_campaign=2015_EditorsPicks_Swiss_Jul6

[JayH]

Two thousand new police officers sworn in recently and pledged to not accept bribes. One out of five are said to be women.

[JohnDearGreen]

From Gucci to GI Jane
http://tabloid.pravda.com.ua/photos/559a7afe1e733/



New agreement expected tomorrow
http://izvestia.kiev.ua/article/84580