More Bad News for Russia

[mendeleyev]

To this point, 40 dollar oil is where it has leveled off at, and 30 dollar oil would require another 25% drop.

FT, you are right on track with your $30 prediction.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says that, "Everything indicates that low oil prices are likely to fall next year. And it is possible that it will be $30 per barrel." (TASS)

Yesterday President Putin signed into law the budget passed for 2016. As reserves are almost depleted, the 2016 budget will end in a deficit of around $35 Billion (USD). We should note that the budget assumes a rosy $50 per barrel price, otherwise the deficit will be much deeper.

[AkMike]

Crude prices dip after recent gains as Fed decision looms – Reuters


Crude oil fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, snapping gains that pulled prices back from testing 11-year lows, as investors awaited the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates are likely to be raised, according to Reuters.

West Texas Intermediate CLc1 fell 45 cents to $36.90 a barrel by 07:37 GMT after rising more than $1 on Tuesday. It fell to $34.53 on Monday, the lowest since the financial crisis bottom of $32.40, before ending the day higher, Reuters wrote.

Brent LCOc1 was down 47 cents at $37.98. The contract settled up 53 cents at $38.45 a barrel on Tuesday, closing higher for the first in eight days.

On Monday, the global oil benchmark came within 14 cents of a December 2008 bottom of $36.20, unleashing a surge of buying.
Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/economics/1213675-crude-prices-dip-after-recent-gains-as-fed-decision-looms-reuters.html

[fathertime]

FT, you are right on track with your $30 prediction.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says that, "Everything indicates that low oil prices are likely to fall next year. And it is possible that it will be $30 per barrel." (TASS)

Yesterday President Putin signed into law the budget passed for 2016. As reserves are almost depleted, the 2016 budget will end in a deficit of around $35 Billion (USD). We should note that the budget assumes a rosy $50 per barrel price, otherwise the deficit will be much deeper.

Hmmm....but I didn't predict 30 dollar oil.  Despite some expert predictions, and it's closer proximity now, I still have a hard time believing it will go so low.  Possible yes, perhaps briefly, but who knows... As far as the 20 dollar predictions, I don't think so...but again if the economy dives anything is possible.


Fathertime!

[AkMike]

FINALLY some sort of almost good news, (after a fashion) 

Putin Raises Minimum Wage to $87 Starting Jan. 1
The Moscow Times

President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree setting the minimum wage in Russia at 6,204 rubles ($87) a month beginning Jan.1, 2016, according to a document published Tuesday on the government's legal information website.

In 2015, the official minimum salary that employers in Russia could legally pay their workers stood at 5,965 rubles($84). Therefore, the minimum wage is set to rise by 4 percent from Jan. 1 of next year.

As of September, the average monthly wage in Russia is 32,911 rubles ($463), according to data released by the Rosstat state statistics service.

According to the estimates of consulting firm Korn Ferry — Hay Group, Russian companies will increase salaries for their employees on average by 7 percent in 2016, the RBC newspaper reported earlier this month.

However, the inflation rate in Russia is expected to stand at 14,6 percent next year, which means that the real wages will fall by 7.5 percent, the report said.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putin-raises-minimum-wage-to-87-starting-jan-1/552867.html


 

[fathertime]

Putin Raises Minimum Wage to $87 Starting Jan. 1
 

I've read here that Russian women are rather choosy compared to how they once were..BUT if their  minimum wage is actually 87 a month...that is less than 1/2 of what it is in Colombia...where it is around 200 dollars at the current exchange rate.   I would think that money means a  lot in Russia, even a guy on social security can be making over 25 times minimum wage if he were living in Russia...I would think options for him would be a plenty.


Fathertime!

[mendeleyev]

FT, your thoughts expressed above are completely logical in a normal world. However, the prevailing mood is swinging so anti-Western that many fear what might happen to loved ones left behind. My wife recently mused about whether or not there will be travel restrictions before long, and she worries about those who have homes and assets outside Russia.

Add to this a strong nationalist mentality that is gripping the nation. We are seeing the beginning to attitudes that consider it as dangerous to have family and friends in the West. How far will this go? I do not know, but I know that young Russian girls today have a lot more to weigh that simply a better life for themselves when considering marriage options.

Years ago a young person wanted to marry someone in the right position, with Communist party connections, etc. That also meant having to know who you could not afford to marry. The Communist party no longer holds that esteem, but the idea is being co-opted by nationalism.  I am staring it in the face every day.

[cc3]

I am staring it in the face every day.

Time to eject?...pull the plug?...hit the road? Common sense and regard for one's (and for his family's) safety, hopefully, will guide you.

[2tallbill]

I've read here that Russian women are rather choosy compared to how they once were..BUT if their  minimum wage is actually 87 a month...that is less than 1/2 of what it is in Colombia...where it is around 200 dollars at the current exchange rate.   I would think that money means a  lot in Russia, even a guy on social security can be making over 25 times minimum wage if he were living in Russia...I would think options for him would be a plenty.


Fathertime!

You are assuming that there are marriage minded women who make minimum wage.
Nobody makes minimum wage. Those wages are reserved for students, foreigners and
such just like in the USA.

[ML]

No knowledge is gained by comparing salaries in two or more countries, even when converted to dollars.

The only meaningful measure is purchasing power parity.

[mhr7]

Time to eject?...pull the plug?...hit the road? Common sense and regard for one's (and for his family's) safety, hopefully, will guide you.

In my little part of Russia (Novocherkassk) people still treat me very well and I've yet to experience any anti-American or anti-West backlash.

[mhr7]

No knowledge is gained by comparing salaries in two or more countries, even when converted to dollars.

The only meaningful measure is purchasing power parity.

True, and I have to keep reminding myself of that. Otherwise, my ruble-denominated salary would make me very depressed

[fathertime]

FT, your thoughts expressed above are completely logical in a normal world. However, the prevailing mood is swinging so anti-Western that many fear what might happen to loved ones left behind. My wife recently mused about whether or not there will be travel restrictions before long, and she worries about those who have homes and assets outside Russia.

 

Thanks...sounds like some of the RUssian women won't take a US man then regardless of his income/looks.

You are assuming that there are marriage minded women who make minimum wage.
Nobody makes minimum wage. Those wages are reserved for students, foreigners and
such just like in the USA.

Yes I was assuming some of the ladies would be making minimum wage, which could easily be incorrect...what would you say most young ladies are making then?

No knowledge is gained by comparing salaries in two or more countries, even when converted to dollars.

The only meaningful measure is purchasing power parity.

Hmmmm, but ML if a guy is making a lot of money in dollars, I'm assuming that translates into even more money in Russia....a lot more  But based on what I'm reading, it sounds like the 87 dollar minimum wage purchases enough for people to live on in Russia.


Fathertime!   

[tfcrew]

The question ...Why does Iran need a ballistic missile if not to deliver a WMD?

Iran missile test sparks concern over nuclear deal implementation
Thu December 17, 2015
Washington (CNN)Iran is once again testing the international community.A United Nations panel announced this week that Iran violated a U.N. Security Council resolution when it tested a ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead in October.
Coming just months before the international community prepares to implement the landmark nuclear deal brokered between Iran, the U.S. and five other world powers this summer, the Iranian missile test is raising questions about Iran's commitment to international protocols and the ability -- and will -- of the U.S. and the international community to enforce the terms of the controversial nuclear accord.
The response from the international community, so far, has been a tepid one, sowing some doubt about its ability to agree on what would constitute a violation of the nuclear deal and which violations should be punished.
Russia and China were quick to cast doubt Tuesday on the findings announced Tuesday by the U.N. Security Council's Panel of Experts that Iran's October test of its medium-range Emad rocket constituted a violation of Security Council resolution 1929. The resolution prohibits Iran from testing ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear weapon.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/17/politics/iran-missile-test-un-resolution-violation/index.html

[fathertime]

The question ...Why does Iran need a ballistic missile if not to deliver a WMD?



http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/17/politics/iran-missile-test-un-resolution-violation/index.html

I don't think that is the right question. A better question would be why can't they have ballistic missiles?


Almost every country in the Middle East has them, and the only nuclear nation is Israel. 


Fathertime!

[BdHvA]

A better question would be why can't they have ballistic missiles?

Fathertime refers to Iran in the above, but it shows I think to just about everyone reading this thread his . . . . . . . .

I will let the posters in general fill in there nouns perhaps with adjectives.

None of mine are complimentary.

Next week is Western Christmas, perhaps you should reflect on the Prince of Peace. You could also read Isaiah 2:4

[fathertime]

Fathertime refers to Iran in the above, but it shows I think to just about everyone reading this thread his . . . . . . . .

I will let the posters in general fill in there nouns perhaps with adjectives.

None of mine are complimentary.

Next week is Western Christmas, perhaps you should reflect on the Prince of Peace. You could also read Isaiah 2:4

What a cowardly post.  You tremble to say whatever it was you wanted to say, but want others to fill in the blank.


My question and statement remain, if practically all the other countries surrounding Iran have ballistic missiles, the relevant question is; why should Iran not also have them.  Despite your anger about it, they should and obviously will. 


Considering what you seem to stand for, it is hypocritical for you to bring bible passages into the discussion...you are not the only hypocritical bible thumper though.   


Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

Iran nuclear deal: Implementation nears, but the sparring continues

Iran is moving faster than expected, the US says, raising the possibility of sanctions relief in January. But hard-line rhetoric persists on both sides.


.......US officials say Iran is moving faster than expected to dismantle key elements of its nuclear program, and Secretary of State John Kerry wrote to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday that Iran was taking steps in a “verifiable” way, and that “suspension of sanctions … is appropriate.”


That may mean first easing sanctions in January, much earlier than initial predictions of middle to late spring.........


http://news.yahoo.com/iran-nuclear-deal-implementation-nears-sparring-continues-165606870.html;_ylt=A0SO8z_FxXRWdGUAJFFXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEyNGcyMXY0BGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjAxMjJfMQRzZWMDc2M-


All this genuine progress,  occurring despite the caterwauling from the likes of Bdhva...and the bomb first mob.


Fathertime!

[tfcrew]

I don't think that is the right question. A better question would be why can't they have ballistic missiles?


Almost every country in the Middle East has them, and the only nuclear nation is Israel. 


 

1...It is a violation of the 'agreement' for Iran to continue w/ICBMs
 2... Actually, not 'almost every'.
Here is a list......
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ICBMs

[fathertime]

I don't think that is the right question. A better question would be why can't they have ballistic missiles?


Almost every country in the Middle East has them, and the only nuclear nation is Israel. 


Fathertime!

1...It is a violation of the 'agreement' for Iran to continue w/ICBMs
 2... Actually, not 'almost every'.
Here is a list......
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ICBMs

did you notice that I mentioned that most of the nations around Iran had ballistic missiles, and you stuck an "IC"(Intercontinental)  in front of it and referenced a list that I hadn't commented on?   Most of the nations around Iran do in fact have Ballistic missiles, but not ICBM's. Here is a list:
http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles




Fathertime!

[AkMike]

Angry Russian Businessmen Turn on Kremlin
By Eva Hartog
Dec. 18 2015 10:51


When Russian entrepreneur Dmitry Potapenko exploded in rage at the Moscow Economic Forum he could not have known he would become an Internet sensation.

And yet he is not surprised.

"I did what everyone dreams of doing themselves," he said.

Three businessmen — Potapenko, his neighbor at the forum roundtable, farm boss Pavel Grudinin, and Crimean zoo director Oleg Zubkov — together gathered more than 2 million hits on YouTube with videos of speeches lambasting the authorities. The three work in different branches of business, but are united in their complaints of red tape, corruption and the deaf ear of the political elite to demands for reform.

They also say they are at the end of their tethers.

For much more of the story   CLICK here
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/angry-russian-businessmen-turn-on-kremlin/553051.html

[alex330]

Maybe somebody already posted this but why is Russia asking Canada to take down the website if there are no Russian soldiers in Ukraine and Syria?

http://news.vice.com/article/a-ukrainian-website-is-outing-russian-soldiers-and-moscow-wants-canada-to-stop-it

[calmissile]

I wonder how long before these 3 guys disappear or end up in prison.

[ML]

Quote from: ML on December 17, 2015, 12:26:46 PM

    No knowledge is gained by comparing salaries in two or more countries, even when converted to dollars.

    The only meaningful measure is purchasing power parity.

= = = = = =

Hmmmm, but ML if a guy is making a lot of money in dollars, I'm assuming that translates into even more money in Russia....a lot more  But based on what I'm reading, it sounds like the 87 dollar minimum wage purchases enough for people to live on in Russia. Fathertime!

Yes, you are understanding me, as your short example shows.

i.e.  It would serve no purpose to look at the $87 in Russia . . . and then think of living in USA on it.

Perhaps possible to live on it in Russia, but not in USA.

So even by referencing dollars in both countries, nothing meaningful can be ascertained.

[2tallbill]

Russia's Economy Slows Amid Investment Woes (Op-Ed)
By Sergei Alexashenko Moscow Times

Russia's economy is faring poorly as the New Year approaches. Gross domestic product
has swung back to a level last seen in the first of 2008 and the economy has essentially
stagnated over the last seven years.

The reason for the problem that officials most frequently cite, and that President Vladimir
Putin mentioned in his most recent address to the Federal Assembly, is a combination of
adverse external factors such as the global economic crisis, the drop in oil prices, Western
financial sanctions and the economic slowdown in China. However, economic growth began
slowing significantly as early as 2013. At that time, GDP was growing by only 1.3 percent
annually, while oil prices consistently surpassed $100 per barrel. Even a rise in oil prices
would not solve the economic problems that Russia is currently facing.

There is more read all about it here
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/economy-slows-amid-investment-woes/552348.html

[tfcrew]

Still..
It is Missiles 101 then Missiles 102

• Iran has the largest and most      diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. (Israel has more      capable ballistic missiles, but fewer in number and type.) Most were acquired from foreign sources, notably North Korea. The Islamic Republic is the only country to develop a 2,000-km missile without first having a      nuclear weapons capability.

   

• Iran is still dependent on      foreign suppliers for key ingredients, components and equipment, but it should      eventually be able to develop long-range missiles over time, including an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile or ICBM.

http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/irans-ballistic-missile-program