The Struggle For Ukraine

[Grumpy]

 Ukrainian farmer busy with his tractor.

[Chelseaboy]

Video's now out there showing that the villages of Neskuchne and Blahodatne in the Donetsk region have both been liberated from the orcs.

[krimster2]

the Northern Crimean Canal is now down forever!!!
no more water is gonna flow through there
it's the first thing the war has cut-off from Crimea
next will be the two major rail lines and two main highways
and then the gas pipelines and power lines and the kerch bridge


my wife's family are all mobiks
anyone with past military service in Crimea has already been conscripted up into late 40s age (and my wife's family is a military family with almost universal service)
we have father/son and brother/brother combos who are deployed now
they are now on the Zaporizhzhia front after spending months and months of digging trenches in northern crimea
they are all wearin beards and tryin to look like Chechens
I can't show photos cuz I don't wanna jeabordize them

if I were still livin in Crimea, me and my daughters would have no choice but to work for the GRU to stay out of jail

[Chelseaboy]

I haven't seen a video yet,but Makarivka.also  in the Donetsk region,   has now been liberated from the orcs officially.


I cannot confirm but i've been informed that the AFU is advancing at around  5km per hour and the orc lines are collapsing.

[Chelseaboy]

After the initial impetus i think it's fair to say the AFU counter offensive has slowed down.Either that or people were getting carried away with the initial reporting.


Latest news from the Ukrainian MOD is that over the past week the AFU liberated seven villages in the Donetsk and Tavria areas,advanced 6.5 km's and gained control of 90 square km's.

[Hammer2722]

After the initial impetus i think it's fair to say the AFU counter offensive has slowed down.Either that or people were getting carried away with the initial reporting.


Latest news from the Ukrainian MOD is that over the past week the AFU liberated seven villages in the Donetsk and Tavria areas,advanced 6.5 km's and gained control of 90 square km's.

Most of what we are seeing now are the strong probing attacks that are looking for the weak spot in the Russian lines. Ukraine has yet to even engage with their heavy armored assault brigade reserves yet. They are using fast light vehicles with heavy machine guns, a few tanks and infantry to clear out the trenches first.


These probing attacks are showing very good signs of success. The main attack will follow in time.

[krimster2]

c'est un petite appetizer
the main course of this red banquet has yet to be served...

[Chelseaboy]

Breaking news from Russian channels of a large number of orcs killed at Kreminna this morning...the Ruskies have gone into meltdown.


The orcs were hanging around for two hours, waiting for their pre-assault on AFU positions  motivational speech from their General, when HIMARS arrived instead.


Involved was the 20th Army and it's General Sukhrab " if they die,they die " Akhmedov,known for last years Vuhledar kamikaze charge.

[Chelseaboy]

Reuters went to Storozhneve,in particular the road which is shown on the footage of June 12th.


"The road is littered with Russian corpses and knocked-out Russian armoured vehicles." Reuters commented on the released footage.

[Chelseaboy]

[Chelseaboy]

[Trenchcoat]

Ukrainians were forced to be bilingual.  But I believe Russian will be replaced with English over time in Ukraine.

Looks like you were right Boe:

http://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/17/7407304/

Assuming Ukraine wins the war of course.

I expect nothing less than good proper British recieved pronunciation English. Only those sounding like Jacob Rees Mogg will be acceptable

[Trenchcoat]

I don't intend posting on here a lot in the near future but for the record I will briefly state where I am on the current Ukrainian Counter-offensive.

Before the counter offensive started I had my doubts, namely that the western tanks the west gave Ukraine would not necessarily be the answer that Ukraine needed largely because Russia has anti tank stuff like the NLAWS & Javelins, mines and attack helicopters, etc so western tanks wouldn't necessarily be as affective as many thought in spear heading the Ukrainian counter offensive.

So that doesn't leave a lot else on which to spear head a Counter-offensive. It may still be early days but only a few villages have been taken so far so practically nothing of any value. Apparently Ukraine is not using its whole army at the moment probably so it doesn't risk over committing, losing a lot of troops then being pushed back itself.

One big mistake Ukraine seems to have made is waiting 12 months before counter attacking. That's given Russia time to dig in multiple defences and beef up it's troop numbers. So Ukraine is attacking territory where Russia is now well prepared so that's not a great strategy and a blunder on Ukraine's part. Still Ukraine might still prevail and push through if Russia can be found wanting anywhere along its defensive line. Ukraine should have really counterattacked 12 months ago but were too careful in risking big casualties which is understandable but it may be difficult to avoid if Ukraine wants to win.

Possibly in the next few days or weeks Ukraine might still be able to make bigger gains but I'm starting to doubt it.

That can be a big problem going forward as Russia knows from Afghanistan that the West can't keep up funding a war long term and Ukraine is now totally dependent on western funding. So if Ukraine can't manage a big break through this year in a Counter-offensive then long term it's future may start to look more bleak.

[Chelseaboy]

Carnage among the orcs currently.


Russian Deputy Commander of the Storm Ossetia battalion ,Tekhov Alvengo,died in P'yatykhatky.Russian sources claim that along with him almost an entire battalion ( 300  ) of fighters died during recent fights for the small village,which the AFU have now liberated.


Over 1000 orcs killed in Ukraine yesterday.

[Trenchcoat]

the Northern Crimean Canal is now down forever!!!
no more water is gonna flow through there
it's the first thing the war has cut-off from Crimea
next will be the two major rail lines and two main highways
and then the gas pipelines and power lines and the kerch bridge


my wife's family are all mobiks
anyone with past military service in Crimea has already been conscripted up into late 40s age (and my wife's family is a military family with almost universal service)
we have father/son and brother/brother combos who are deployed now
they are now on the Zaporizhzhia front after spending months and months of digging trenches in northern crimea
they are all wearin beards and tryin to look like Chechens
I can't show photos cuz I don't wanna jeabordize them

if I were still livin in Crimea, me and my daughters would have no choice but to work for the GRU to stay out of jail

How are they getting on? Some days into Ukraine's Counter-offensive now. British Intelligence reckons there are heavy losses on both sides.

[krimster2]

i'm not currently allowed to tell anything about my family in order maintain operational security, so NO COMMENT!!!
but unlike Wagner, mobiks are in until the war is over

mobiks have never made so much money in their lives
so even theough they are all gonna die, they're gonna die rich, so they're happy!!!
FREAKIN RUSSIANS!!!

[krimster2]

Putin's War according to Prigozhin

"The desire of Russia's ruling clan, who were not satisfied with the Donbas, was to appoint Medvedchuk as the president of Ukraine and divide its assets between each other for plundering"


so actually...
according to him,
all you Russians are sending your kids to get killed and maimed over the issues related to the stealing and lying of Russia's 'ruling clan' while THEIR kids are safe in multi-million euro homes in the West.

this means Russians are as freakin dumb as republicans and poor southerners who fought for slave owning masters whose sons were safe at home!!!!

dumbkopfs
I really want to disassociate myself from 'white people' even though I 'present' as white
cuz so MANY white people are SO FREAKIN DUMB!!!!
WTF??!!!

once Russians undestands this
that whole place'll burn like a pile of dry leaves
too many fires to count
everyone with a lighter is a potential russian freedom fighter

[Chelseaboy]

It's all kicking off in Russia now.


The FSB has issued an arrest warrant on Prigozhin.


Prigozhin claims the military are fully behind him...and that the invasion of Ukraine was a sham based on fabrications from the Kremlin regime,with the Russian soldiers now drowning in rivers of blood because of the lies.


BBC Newsnight says there are unconfirmed reports of a Russian rebel army moving toward Rostov with the FSB racing to meet them.TV news channels throughout Southern Russia are being hacked with direct messages from Prigozhin to the Russian people.


Videos showing military trucks moving into Moscow city centre.

[JohnDearGreen]

[Trenchcoat]

Exciting times! thanks CB and Dear John Green. I'm also following in the news channels. Looks like civil war could all of a sudden be kicking off now. Who would have thought it would be Wagner to go at it first. Who knows possibly the Russian Republic Regions may follow suit. Looks like this may possibly end the war in Ukraine. If enough Russian troops side with Wagner they may all end up deserting the territory in Ukraine and focus on their own civil war. In which case love tours to Ukraine may soon be a goer once again

Just have to see what happens.

Looks like from the report that DJG put up that some Wagner troops are already in Moscow having been based near there.

Anyone with discontent to Putler may find an opportunity here to rise up against him.

Hopefully this will evolve into quite a firefight and not a damp squid with a bit of luck.

If I were Ukraine I would strike pro-Kremlin forces as hard as possible now with all their might and completely hold off in areas of pro-Progozhin forces. That could make pro-Kremlin forces crack, break and run even desert the front. That could have the effect of rolling up Russia's whole front line in Ukraine with both Ukraine & pro-Progozhin forces hitting pro-Kremlin forces from both directions making it too much for them to take. If Ukraine let it be known that they aren't looking to attack pro-Progozhin forces that could aid them in both themselves and pro-Progozhin forces being able to concentrate their attacks on pro-Kremlin forces. If pro-Progozhin forces remain after pro-Kremlin forces are defeated in Ukraine then Ukraine can easily tell them to leave quickly into Russia or be annihilated by Ukraine's then superior forces and flanking ability. My guess is that they would see the game is up and leave Ukraine otherwise an easy win for Ukraine anyway.

[Chelseaboy]

According to AFU troops on the ground Bakhmut has become a" bloodbath" for orcs as rebels turn on those loyal to the Kremlin regime and kill each other.


General Surovikin has pleaded on video with the columns of  Wagner orcs marching to Moscow to lay down their arms.


Russian sources say that Progozhin has said any  troops sent against his troops will be killed and any aircraft sent against them will be shot down.


There are reports of some orc Helicopter pilots refusing to take off and engage with Prigozhin's army.

[Trenchcoat]

If I were Ukraine I wouldn't pass up an opportunity like this. I would hit pro-Kremlin forces in Ukraine with everything there is even using HIMARS & Storm Shadow missiles on lower value troop concentrations. Add in continuous artillery move all the tanks to the front and then press in with all the ground troops they can muster in one big wave. Hitting the hell out off pro-Kremlin Russian Army troops now will send them into a blind state of panic and fear and make them break and run. Many of the Russian troops are conscripts without much combat ability, training or experience. Upon seeing their troops vapourised before their eyes they won't want to risk that happening to themselves and they'll flee the field.

If Ukraine doesn't act it could miss it's one big chance to end this war.

Prigozhin's troops are much smaller than the Russian Army apparently about 25,000 but tend to include some heavily experienced fighters, but they need to move well to stay in the game in territory that is now largely hostile to them. It's in Ukraine's interest to help keep them in the game by hitting pro-Kremlin Russian Army troops hard so they can't deal with the Wagner forces. That way Wagner forces will create havoc for Putler behind the line in Russia thereby making it easier for Ukraine to defeat Russian troops in Ukraine.

With Wagner troops moving in on Moscow I'm glad I'm not a tourist there at this moment in time.

[Trenchcoat]

Well looks like it may be getting boring all of a sudden with Prigozhin having cut a deal. Seems strange as not sure what deal he could cut and can not be a good idea in that position as I wouldn't trust Putler or any of the others to hold up their end of the bargain. Once stood down they might well go for Prigozhin anyway. Ukraine looks like they lost their chance to crack the Russian Army quickly by not acting soon enough. All a bit of an anti-climax really.

Update: Looks like Prigozhin is going to be offered sanctuary in Belarus & charges dropped. Not sure why Prigozhin went for such a deal, he's a mercenary captain who will be accepting sanctuary from Lukashenko a Communist who is also Putler's pal with Russia on his doorstep. So how long is Prigozhin likely to live for in Belarus??? My guess is that he will be knocked off pretty quickly.

Not sure what is happening with the Wagner troops, I assume they won't be joining Prigozhin in Belarus so probably sucked into the Russian Army, can't see them letting go of all those troops they can use at the front by disbanding them.

[Chelseaboy]

I'm starting to get concerned about Ukraine's counter-offensive....it's painfully slow.


This wasn't unexpected at all...the orcs were clearly going to be well dug-in and prepared.


My concern stems from the upcoming USA Presidential elections next year when, if Biden doesn't win, the military support from the USA could suddenly stop,which would leave Ukraine in serious trouble.


The former Ukrainian PM was talking today and was saying it's going to take a long time to get the orcs out of Ukraine...i'm not sure Ukraine will have that time.

[Trenchcoat]

I'm starting to get concerned about Ukraine's counter-offensive....it's painfully slow.


This wasn't unexpected at all...the orcs were clearly going to be well dug-in and prepared.


My concern stems from the upcoming USA Presidential elections next year when, if Biden doesn't win, the military support from the USA could suddenly stop,which would leave Ukraine in serious trouble.


The former Ukrainian PM was talking today and was saying it's going to take a long time to get the orcs out of Ukraine...i'm not sure Ukraine will have that time.

I totally agree CB, I've had my doubts also. Looking at the map too little ground has been taken so far and I don't think it's because they are preparing the way. I think it's because they are finding it too tough going as said because Russian troops had a long time to dig well in and prepare.

Ukraine also isn't that strong in the air, that's less of an issue when defending and Russia going into Ukraine's airspace where they are up against SAM's but that reverses around when Ukrainian planes enter Russian airspace in Russian controlled areas of Ukraine where Russia will have SAM's and can field many more planes with less risk.

So without much air support when attacking Ukraine has difficulty attacking in the ground. Along with that Ukraine doesn't really have anything that Russia doesn't have in its arsenal in general terms. Sure it has HIMARS & Storm Shadow but Russia has cruise missiles and has adapted to negating the effect of HIMARS & the like by avoiding concentrations of supply where it can. The tanks we gave Russia has anti tank mines, anti tank hand held Javelin type of stuff, anti tank helicopter & plane missiles. So with a lot of it, it's pound for pound. Ukrainian troops have been trained up well but they're attacking which is often harder than defending. Odds are Russian conscripts have probably had some training over the Winter/Spring also.

I think they lost out today in not moving quick enough and hard enough to take advantage of the disarray in Russia. Had they hammered Russian troops hard they may had caused many to break & run, defect to Prigozhin, etc. So not waiting much when something like that happens is really the key. Putting pressure on the enemy when they are vulnerable and make them crack.

If anything today has shown is that the west & Ukraine are likely using the wrong strategy in trying to defeat Russia head on in the field. The clue is to be more canny, try and find dissident groups in Russia to fund and equip with weapons. Even Regions of Russia that may be happy to break away from Russia. Get them onside, build up their ability to stage a successful uprising against a Russia whose main forces are concentrated in Ukraine and go that way about it. A Russia that has its own big problems at home isn't going to be so bothered about what is happening in Ukraine. It's why Russia wasn't bothered about Ukraine in the 90s they had their own economic woes, military & power struggle woes will work just as well at that.