The Donbass War. Assessing the Aftermath

[JayH]

Not sure that I agree that the war in the east has ended yet-it is just not at the scale of intensity it was. Article has much good information and is current.

"The war in eastern Ukraine has ended, or at least finished its phase of peak intensity. Unresolved questions include control over the border with Russia, local power, the disbanding or legitimization of armed groups, and – finally – the status of Donbass territories still beyond Kiev’s control. The juridical chaos in disputed regions is compounded by the catastrophic fall in the living standards of the local people. Having worked in the region for the entire period of the armed conflict, Pavel Kanygin, a special correspondent for the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta, reviews for Meduza the results of the war."



The Donbass War. Assessing the Aftermath

How the ‘Russian Spring’ came to an end in eastern Ukraine

In terms of prosperity and the quality of life, prewar Donbass was essentially on par with Kiev – significantly surpassing other Ukrainian and most Russian regions. Donetsk had one of the three biggest airports in all of Ukraine. Skyscrapers of glass and concrete housed the offices of international companies working directly in the region (rather than remotely through offices in the capital). The city was home to many expats. Local trams and buses offered wireless Internet, even beating the Moscow Metro by a few years.

In 2012, the city hosted the European Championship for football. Looking at Donetsk today, it seems impossible to believe that this was all in the recent past.

In the span of a few summer months in 2014, the financial and industrial capital of eastern Ukraine was transformed into a ghost town. The empty central streets conveyed only military trucks and desperate taxi-drivers with reporters in tow. To the north, to the west, and even in the center of the city, shells exploded every day. Several neighborhoods were destroyed entirely – down to their very foundations. Throughout the province, dozens of towns and villages were burned, annihilated.
Many Donetsk residents – service companies, bureaucrats, foreigners, local hipsters, and intelligentsia – were already leaving by the summer of 2014. And yet the overall population of the provincial center dropped very little; people from the devastated surrounding areas were drawn into Donetsk. Now they make up the new face of the city.

The war has come and gone, leaving behind poverty and pain. The buses and trams have been stripped of their wifi routers. High-voltage cables smashed in the shelling have been sold for scrap. Half-empty shelves in the stores have become customary. The city’s Petrovsky district still has many living in the bomb shelter of the local mine, fearing renewed artillery strikes. The nearby municipal psychiatric hospital has become home to fighters for the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). Already last winter, I joined volunteers taking food and medicine to the neighborhood, where typhoid plagued people crowded in basements. What goes on now in Petrovsky and other areas around Donetsk is virtually unknown. This fall, DPR authorities banned volunteers from bringing in medicine and equated NGO activity with espionage.


http://meduza.io/en/feature/2015/11/13/the-donbass-war-assessing-the-aftermath

[JayH]

The Donetsk industrial basin has died. That is the main result of the Russian occupation of the industrial region.



Russia’s destruction of the Donbas

What will  happen next? What always happens in such cases. Donbas will empty out. Many of its residents will be forced to look for new work and a new place to live. Those who have left will not return. Whether a new industry appears in the region will depend entirely on whether the region is returned to Ukrainian control. Because only Ukraine can guarantee investments and promote new settlement in the region. These options simply do not exist for the occupation authorities. The statement that the Donbas can be either Ukrainian or desolate does not paint a pretty picture. But it is the economic truth.




http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/12/08/russias-destruction-of-the-donbas/

[JayH]

      These people are victims of the war-- and as they have found-- not likely to get any sympathy     in Russia-- and  Ukrainians are likey to be underwhelmed to have  them.The problem I see is that  it was impossible at the time for people to make informed decision-- and chances are they are still not in a position to do that.Recent changes in the law in russia are designed to push these people  out of Russia.
       It is just as well that Ukraine is planning for a future without Russia.All that and more--is all the more reason I see no reason to make any permanent compromises in the east-or Crimea.
       Moscow will be pushing out of Russia early next year all those who fled Ukraine. Their presence in Russia has deepened Russian suspicions about people from Ukraine, but their return to Ukraine will even further deepen the split between the two countries because of the experiences they had in Russia, Yabloko activist Lev Shlosberg says.

Refugees returning to Ukraine from Russia will deepen divide between two countries, Shlosberg says

Putin’s war in Ukraine has hit Russians in a number of ways: its costs, including the impact of sanctions, has been high, and there have been real human losses, but especially damaging to the Kremlin’s line has been the expectations and behavior of those, ethnic Russian and not, who initially fled the conflict to the Russian Federation, he says.

In the course of a wide-ranging interview, Shlosberg calls attention to the ways in which the refugee flow, encouraged by the Kremlin, has worked against Putin’s policies in Russia both countries.

Even as Russians shift their focus from Ukraine to Syria, many of them are rethinking their position about what has occurred in the former, the former Yabloko deputy in Pskov oblast says. “In many regions of Russia, they have seed the nature of the people who came from Ukraine,” many of whom expected an easy ride because of what they had seen on Russian TV.

Russians in Russia began to understand that “many of these did not want to work but only to live at the expense of the Russian state; and this is one of the reasons why as of January 2016, all the offices for Ukrainian refugees in the Russian Federation will be closed” and the refugees themselves forced to return home.



http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/11/28/refugees-returning-to-ukraine-from-russia-will-deepen-divide-between-two-countries-shlosberg-says/

[JayH]

This is an interesting assessment of the situation and a very likely scenario on how it will unfold.
For those with a genuine interest in Ukraine's future these are about my thoughts and what those with influence in Ukraine are thinking.
 
The one very consistent concept right from the start of the Russian invasion of Crimea has been to avoid escalation to any "out of control" situation that would allow Russia to use the 'protection of Russian speakers" nonsense to up the extent of military intervention.

In more recent times-the internal political push has been for Kyiv to be seen to be doing something eg managing in the right direction-- a very difficult thing to achieve in all the circumstances.

Poroshenko himself is a believer that to win Ukraine-- he needs to "win" the hearts and minds of the people-- and that most particularly applies to those in the east-- and Crimea.In other words--make Ukraine a better place to live than Russia and desirable.Looking west and integrating that way is a future-- what Russia has shown is that they have nothing to offer-except misery.

Donbas on its way to becoming Chechnya of 1998,

However much some in Russia, the West, or even in Ukraine may hope that the Donbas will become “a frozen conflict,” that is not going to happen, according to Russian military journalist Arkady Babchenko. Instead, the facts on the ground point to it becoming a Chechnya of 1998 unless and until Ukrainian forces restore order there.
In an interview with Apostrophe’s Artem Dekhtyarenko posted online today, Babchenko says that there is no basis for thinking that any accords will transform the situation into “a frozen conflict” with “some kind of quasi-state like a second Transdniestria.”

That is “because the Donbas is a territory which is controlled by separate armed groups,” a situation that recalls Chechnya and other parts of the North Caucasus at the end of the 1990s. And as was the case then, “there will be war, banditism and kidnappings” in the Donbas for the foreseeable future.


http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/12/27/donbas-on-its-way-to-becoming-second-chechnya-babchenko-says/

[Gator]

T

Donbas on its way to becoming Chechnya of 1998,

I frequently am wrong (just ask my wife), yet this situation was readily apparent a year ago.  Here is one post where I predicted "...eastern Ukraine resembling war ravaged Chechnya." 


http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=19061.msg396309#msg396309



I also predicted "....Crimea becoming another Turkish Cyprus..."  Anyone disagree with that?


There was another prediction, and we need more time to tell if it will be true. 


Putin's direct military interventions to maintain Russia's sphere of influence have harmed the local populace more than helped.   The question remains whether Russia will appropriate money from its shrinking national budget to improve Crimea and Donbass.  That would mean less money for Russia's domestic policies and less money to stuff the pockets of corrupt Russian officials.   

[krimster2]

there are new events that could be a "game changer", the Tatary who allied themselves with Right Sector and brought down the electrical towers in Kherson that cut-off Crimea's power have been converted into an officially approved (by Ukraine's central government) militia.  There was only one problem, Ukraine didn't have the funds to equip them, this past week, Turkey announced that they would be equipping them with everything from uniforms to weapons.  Coming soon to a TV near you, Muslims fighting Russians, what impact will this have on Russia's large Muslim population?

[The Natural]

there are new events that could be a "game changer", the Tatary who allied themselves with Right Sector and brought down the electrical towers in Kherson that cut-off Crimea's power have been converted into an officially approved (by Ukraine's central government) militia.  There was only one problem, Ukraine didn't have the funds to equip them, this past week, Turkey announced that they would be equipping them with everything from uniforms to weapons.  Coming soon to a TV near you, Muslims fighting Russians, what impact will this have on Russia's large Muslim population?

Yeah, read that too. As well as that stunt almost causing a meltdown to Ukraine's nuclear reactors. Another point to reflect on is that not all muslims are the same.....

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43793.htm

[Darth_Budda]

I don't think the Civil War is over....

I new revolt in Kiev, against the oligarchs, would not surprise me...

Unless the government in Kiev can start to turn things around...
A Tad faster....

[jone]

I don't think the Civil War is over....

I new revolt in Kiev, against the oligarchs, would not surprise me...

Unless the government in Kiev can start to turn things around...
A Tad faster....

Oh, Darth,

It is not exactly a civil war when another country sends insurgents into yours and claims that your population is revolting.  The 'troops' in Eastern Ukraine are mercenaries that fought in Chechnya and Serbia and they are backed up by Russian regulars.  When you put things into the proper perspective, this was never a 'civil war' as you claim, but the actions of a neighboring country offended about the future direction of the government and the soft reaction from the Western powers.

[AkMike]

Wow 'Natural' where'd you dig up that tripe? 

That's so straight out of Tass or Pravda that it's silly!

Crimea's lit up? LMAO! Dot your own looking thru web cams around Krym, at least the few that still have power to run.  Little else does except for the few portable gen sets around.

 Ukraine isn't nearly as bad as that blogger says either.

[Anotherkiwi]

Wow 'Natural' where'd you dig up that tripe? 

That's so straight out of Tass or Pravda that it's silly!

Crimea's lit up? LMAO! Dot your own looking thru web cams around Krym, at least the few that still have power to run.  Little else does except for the few portable gen sets around.

 Ukraine isn't nearly as bad as that blogger says either.

Note how Orlov continually refers to "The" Ukraine, because he obviously can't stomach the fact that it's an independent country.  As for the comments - not ONE posted which refutes anything in the article.  How likely is that in real life?

[JayH]

Many articles now appearing in attempt to analyse  what Russia is trying to achieve in Ukraine. While a lot of the thoughts are not new as such-- it does add to understanding more-- or confirms existing ideas!  eg  "Putin’s sudden flight to Mars."  is the final line of this article !

Russia does not want Donbas. It wants Ukraine.


It’s no secret that the Kremlin has one owner, but there are several towers whispering in his ear. Each of these "towers," or interest groups, is responsible for certain tasks. A whole team emerged that distributes the funds to the occupied Donbas. And these people are perfectly comfortable: they bring the "Russian world" and feed from the pork barrel. In this situation, the Kremlin hustlers can present themselves to the “tzar” as valuable aides and count on his mercy.

However, the "eminence grises" closer to the very top understand that, having stopped at the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Russian Federation has gained nothing, globally Russia gained nothing. Indeed, it has grown an atavistic part to its body: a subsidized region, which Russia had itself destroyed. But the rest of Ukraine today is only ready to look at its neighbors, who cynically speak of some kind of ‘brotherhood,’ through the sight of a gun.

The appointment to the Contact Group of Boris Gryzlov, one of Putin’s closest confidants, aims to try once again to force the official Kyiv to agree with Russia on the elections in the occupied Donbas. This man, as a permanent member of the Russian Security Council, took a direct part in developing the plans of seizing Ukraine’s south-eastern regions.

Kremlin is satisfied with its current puppets in Donbas, as the extermination of the too-independent local leaders is complete.
Thus, the Kremlin’s perception of the electoral process in Donbas is very peculiar, but yet it’s clear: the votes should be counted by some apprentice of Churov [Head of the Russian Central Elections Commission], while only the separatist clones of "United Russia" should campaign, with the participation of pan-Ukrainian parties being highly undesirable. No one intends to change or remove the leaders of the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. So far, the Kremlin is satisfied with its current puppets in Donbas, as the extermination of the too-independent local leaders is complete.

At the same time representatives of Moscow will continue declaring at all levels their implementation of Minsk-2 [ceasefire agreements], thereby prolonging the negotiating process. The calculation is simple: to freeze the status quo in Donbas until the presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s strategists hope that by playing, as usual, on Ukraine’s inner controversies, they can push back Donbas in its present shape into the Ukraine, providing for a “special status” for the region, without actual subordination to Kyiv. The minimum task is to deprive of power President Poroshenko and PM Yatsenyuk. Snap elections to the Ukrainian parliament can speed this process up. If the revenge-seekers come to power, then the situation will be frozen permanently by the Transnistrian scenario.

Kyiv’s desire to fulfill the political part of the Minsk agreements will only be used for the implementation of Moscow’s vision of the structure of Ukraine.
The Minsk process for the Kremlin is just a curtain. Behind this curtain goes the work on gradual absorption of the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. No one in the Kremlin is going to return the occupied territories. Moreover, if Kyiv wishes to fulfill the political part of the Minsk agreements, it will only be used for the implementation of Moscow’s vision of the structure of Ukraine. The Moscow-orchestrated militants will be endlessly agreeing stuff with the Kyiv authorities and voicing the Kremlin’s older demands: federalization, Russian language as a second state language, and Ukraine’s non-aligned status.

Moscow is not planning to give up on Donbas, because it needs to keep focus on the whole of Ukraine. At least, that's how the Kremlin’s officials perceived Putin's words that Russia can’t "give up on the Russians of Donbas to the nationalists to “eat them up.” The occupier is set to gain a firm foothold. As they say in Moscow, the "nation-building" is in full gear in the occupied parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. That is the Kremlin’s logic of a suitcase without a handle. They will keep the seized territory, although it’s lifeless. Today, no one in the Kremlin wishes to “hear the Donbas.” No one listens to the locals which once chanted “Putin! Bring in the troops!” This is the senseless and the merciless "Russian world." So, we can hardly hope that this world will be destroyed by the plunging oil prices or Putin’s sudden flight to Mars.

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1225808-russia-does-not-want-donbas-it-wants-ukraine.html

[mendeleyev]

I had dinner last night with an Army Colonel who says that with US elections soon to hog the news cycle, Russia will move more forcefully in Eastern Ukraine.

The takeover of Crimea was "golden" in his terms: meaning that the events of Kyiv gave cover to something Russia needed to happen anyway. The pipelines in the Black Sea are of great importance to Russia and given that Crimea extends from the mainland into the Black Sea, whoever controls Crimea has a great percentage of control over those pipelines. Russia didn't want Ukraine to be in the driver's seat and saw an opportunity with the Kyiv events to put into place a strategy that military planners had actually mapped out sometime ago.

He also conceded that Russia needs a land bridge, and indicated that "it isn't over yet."

I pressed him on the presence of troops in Ukraine, reminded him of what I'd seen firsthand, and he admitted that there have been these phases:

- Arm criminal and revolutionary elements (with pay) to create a crisis in the Donbass.
- Send in whole Russian divisions for "training purposes" to overwhelm Ukrainian troops as needed.
- Establish permanent bases.
- If Moscow cannot reestablish factual control over Kyiv, create instability along Ukraine's borders, including promoting the idea of returning former territories to Poland, Romania, etc, in order to shrink Ukraine into practical oblivion.

Given that Putin has recently hinted as to presence of troops in Eastern Ukraine, we both agreed that eventually Russia will set aside any pretense that such troops do not exist.

[JayH]

Russian FSB takes measures to establish control over leaders of ‘DPR’ and ‘LPR’ and get rid of non-controllable separatists.

Russian Special Services Started Personnel Purges Among Members Of ‘DPR’ And ‘LPR’

According to the report, ‘DPR’ and ‘LPR’ continue violating the ceasefire and attack Ukrainian positions about 20 times per 24 hours, though not 50 times as before.

As it was stated in the report, Ukrainian intelligence services are being informed that the presence of FSB officers along the demarcation line increases. It appears that they are conducting personnel purges among separatists they consider non-controllable. It is sometimes hard to say who should be blamed for escalation of situation in Ukraine – Kremlin or ‘DPR’ and ‘LPR’ leaders. As soon as FSB renews control over separatists, there will be a guarantee that the situation in Donbas is fully controlled by Moscow.


http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/51668-russian-special-services-started-personnel-purges-among-members-of-dpr-and-lpr.html

[msmobyone]

I also predicted "....Crimea becoming another Turkish Cyprus..."  Anyone disagree with that?

Knowing both places I'd say there are SOME parallels, but the differences are important

Russian managed to block the UN Sec Council resolution to officially condemn the 'referendum' result and military takeover necessary to bring it about. The 'trnc' is not officially part of Turkey and it is further from the Turkish mainland - so building rail/ road links are prohibitive.

Whether we like HOW it was done, there is no getting away from the fact that the return to Russia is - overall  - popular with most locals - even if we remember their ancestors were planted there and the indigenous Tatars have been ethnically cleansed into minority by Imperial and Soviet regimes.




 

 

[JayH]

The  forgotten people of the Donbass and Crimea who have been displaced - and of course those trying to survive in the war zone.
This ongoing tragedy cannot be ignored.


Ongoing war in Ukraine turns 1.7 million people into refugees
'Internally displaced persons' struggle to find new homes and jobs in their own country

The war, along with Russia's annexation of Crimea, has forced more than 1.7 million people like Semenenko from their homes to other parts of Ukraine.

Many have gone to fairly close cities in the east like Kharkiv and Zaporizhia. Smaller numbers have gone to cities like Lviv in western Ukraine, more than 1,100 kilometres away, while others have gone to smaller cities and towns all over the country where they have friends and family.
But many, like Semenenko and her family, left everything behind and settled in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital and largest city of almost three million.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russa-rebels-refugees-1.3646116

[msmobyone]

I also predicted "....Crimea becoming another Turkish Cyprus..."  Anyone disagree with that?

I think I did..

ReasonS being that

1/ So many Turkish Cypriots left - Turkey had to repopulate their 'sector' with folk from Antalya

2/ Russia is must closer to the peninsula and can even build a bridge

3/ Russia - then USSR - didn't veto Turkey's actions for doing something similar - at the UN - 'TRNC' is not recognised by a mandate of the UN Security Council

[Gator]

I think I did..

ReasonS being that

1/ So many Turkish Cypriots left - Turkey had to repopulate their 'sector' with folk from Antalya

2/ Russia is must closer to the peninsula and can even build a bridge

3/ Russia - then USSR - didn't veto Turkey's actions for doing something similar - at the UN - 'TRNC' is not recognised by a mandate of the UN Security Council

I was not thinking about "invasions," displacement of citizens when government changed, etc.,  but more about the next 40 years.   In the 40 years after Cyprus was divided, the economy of TRNC floundered while Cyprus's prospered. 

I contend if Ukraine plays its cards correctly for the next 40 years, its economy by trading with Europe will do far better than Crimea trading with Russia.   

One factor has changed since my original post.  Russians like to travel and popular holiday spots from the past (Egypt, Antalya) are no longer freely available to Russians, so Crimea and Sochi may thrive as travel destinations.   

[Brasscasing]

I was not thinking about "invasions," displacement of citizens when government changed, etc.,  but more about the next 40 years.  In the 40 years after Cyprus was divided, the economy of TRNC floundered while Cyprus's prospered. 

I contend if Ukraine plays its cards correctly for the next 40 years, its economy by trading with Europe will do far better than Crimea trading with Russia.   

One factor has changed since my original post.  Russians like to travel and popular holiday spots from the past (Egypt, Antalya) are no longer freely available to Russians, so Crimea and Sochi may thrive as travel destinations.

If I may interject...

[my bolded]False economy, Gator. It was the United Nations that propped up the Greek Cyp side and it was a major economic concern when the various UN contingents started to withdraw in the mid 90's.

Brass

[msmobyone]

If I may interject...

[my bolded]False economy, Gator. It was the United Nations that propped up the Greek Cyp side and it was a major economic concern when the various UN contingents started to withdraw in the mid 90's.

Brass

OMG

Brass the 'levant expert'

Gator

I lived there for 8 years...

The 'TRNC' withered on the vane - economically - as Turkish Cypriots left and imported Turks took a long time to settle and many were ' agrarian' ..In addition Turkey decided to make the 'TRNC' a gambling destination- The irony being that after 2003 - when the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Turkey could not prevent Cypriots  from moving freely - a T.Cypriot Doctor - a brave man who I've met - [ Brass will say I'm making THAT up, too ]  took Turkey to Court and won ....Then Greek Cypriots - in their hordes gambled in the north ..

During the late 90's to the late noughties, the 'trnc' economy 'boomed' - with Brits / Israelis, etc., buying land property...

This stalled when a UK couple were taken to Court in the 'south' , won and their case was allowed in British Courts

The Euro crisis in Greece affected the 'south' and the south needed bailing out ... Cyprus [ greek] was unfairly caned - compared to the Irish , Italians, etc. Banks were closed, currency controls were implemented and the economy dived


Both sides have leaders with a history of working together - mayors of the last divided city in the world..Nicosia

Both economies are in the crapper and only some sort of reunification might help

Turkey, ironically doesn't want this, now  - and having completed a project to bring water from the Turkish Taurus Mountains - refuses to let the t.Cypriots control it - lest they might do a deal with the G.Cypriots

Crimea hasn't got an UN mandate of 'non recognition' ..Russia's veto saw to that ..

THAT is another reason why the similarities are not so great

Brass - UN 'help' was / is very limited  - mainly confined to Policing - still - disputed areas

big Money was promised / pledged - if the 2004 Annan Plan had been agreed