The Fate of The DNR/LNR "Republics"

[ML]

Ochka has told me several times that she will never want anything to do with the people in those Eastern areas after what they have done to Ukrainian citizens.

They display extreme contempt for ethnic Ukrainians.

She will not want them re-integrated into normal Ukrainian society.

If there were a way to resettle all of those terrorists into Russia, that would be the solution.

But, they would never agree to go and give up land, what homes are still left, etc.

So best for Ukraine to let the terrorists segments go form their own country.

Worst downside to Ukraine in that scenario is the gas and oil in those areas.

[mendeleyev]

Russia does not want them in this present state, but does want to control them.

As of late, there are rumours of night squads, Russian kill squads, who are "eliminating" local military commanders among the separatists who ignore orders from Moscow. As I am hearing it, Moscow is greatly incensed by locals who speak of independence, without oversight from Russia.

Letting them go now will only provoke further actions in the future. Cancer must be cut out and eliminated. Go for deep surgery to end this problem.

[BillyB]

Ochka has told me several times that she will never want anything to do with the people in those Eastern areas after what they have done to Ukrainian citizens.

They display extreme contempt for ethnic Ukrainians.

She will not want them re-integrated into normal Ukrainian society.

Putin wants to split the Ukrainian people and it's working. The more people that are willing to give away a piece of their country only makes Putin stronger. After Ukraine gives up DNR and LNR, Putin will show everybody Ukrainian people rising up and getting violent in other regions that don't want to be a part of Ukraine too. He's not going to stop after DNR and LNR. He didn't stop at Crimea.


I've seen polls and believe most people in Eastern Ukraine don't want Ukraine to break up. Poroshenko doesn't either and he even wants Crimea back but unfortunately the world is not going to help Ukrainians. The world wants us to believe sanctions doesn't work on Cuba or Iran but wants us to believe it'll work on Russia so we feel good they're doing something about the conflict over there. It's a matter of time before Putin gains control over part or all of Ukraine again.

[JayH]

These comments apply to what is all of the invaded territory of Ukraine.

Despite Pro-Russian Attitudes Now, Crimea is Not Lost to Ukraine



Staunton, August 19 – An increasingly common theme in many commentaries about Crimea and the Donbass is that Ukrainians should not want them back. Pro-Russian attitudes in the those regions would, if they were again included within the borders of the Ukrainian state, make them a classic “fifth column.”

But that is “yet another lie about ‘the Russian world,” Kseniya Kirillova argues in a commentary yesterday, one that fails to take into consideration the nature of such attitudes and the ways in which they have changed in the past and could change in the future as well.

There are several reasons for confidence that this is so, the commentator says. First of all, those said to have “pro-Russian” attitudes consist of several groups: those who hope to benefit financially or psychologically by being part of Russia, those who fear Ukrainization, and those who feel “a cultural closeness to Russia,” Russian traditions, and the Russian language.

It should not be any problem for Ukraine to demonstrate that ethnic Russians in Crimea and the Donbass will be better off in Ukraine than they will be in Russia, especially at a time of economic crisis in the latter, Kirillova says. That leaves the third group whose members are concerned about self-identification.

Under Putin, Russian propaganda has insisted that “the so-called ‘Russian world’ is possible only within the state borders of Russia,” a lie that ignores the experiences of nations and ethnic groups around the world who can maintain and even promote their cultural identities while being loyal citizens of other states.

The history of the Ukrainian diaspora in the United States, is a clear example of this, Kirillova continues. Its members speak English, are American citizens and identify with the U.S. But they also maintain their Ukrainian language, continue to be concerned about their ancestral homeland, and identify with it as well.

The possibility they and others have to combine in themselves “various identifications” in a way in which one does not conflict with another is typical of the United States, she says. And she suggests that “by declaring that Russian cultural identification is possible only within the state borders of the Russian Federation, the Russian authorities are declaring the weakness of this culture and its inability to exist and develop without the help of the state.” [snip]


If that happens, Kirillova concludes, then “part of ‘the pro-Russian views’ of the residents of the occupied territories will not interfere in any way with their becoming in time normal citizens of the Ukrainian state,” precisely because they can remain part of their ethnic community just as Ukrainians in the United States do.

http://www.interpretermag.com/despite-pro-russian-attitudes-now-crimea-is-not-lost-to-ukraine/

[JayH]

Forum has often touched on the role of the OSCE in eastern Ukraine-- it makes you wonder about the lack of any logic of the invaders.

Kremlin proxies stage ‘mass protests’ against real peacekeeping force in Donbas

Denis Kazansky, an exiled Donetsk journalist, had less difficulty understanding the widely circulated photos of the anti-OSCE demonstration on June 10.  You look at the photos, he says, and you understand immediately that the participants were there because they were told to be.  The photos, the well-prepared signs in English, etc. do indeed make that clear, but there is also confirmation from a person writing a letter on Radio Svoboda.

http://www.khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1465821372

[JayH]

This is a most significant development in Minsk negotiations,
The arrival of Russian President's advisor Vladislav Surkov in Minsk will dramatically change the scale of the negotiations on Donbass.
The increase in activity in the east and Russia pouring in materials and men is typically an attempt to increase pressure on Kyiv.Time is no longer on Moscow's side-hence the potential now  for higher ranked advisor being used to try and force the situation.Until now--Moscow has typically used the "it's not us" routine to frustrate negotiations.

The jokes are over: Begin the most difficult 6 months for Ukraine

"The arrival of Surkov in Minsk means that a completely new stage begins. What a joke all over. Because Russia will throw all the forces in the lifting of sanctions in the winter. We are facing a very difficult six months. When you and the activation of agents across the board in Europe, and the intensification of military action, attempts to show that when nothing is solved, intensified fighting and want to quickly decide everything and withdraw the sanctions ", - said Portnikov.

According to him, Moscow will make a lot of action, which are difficult to predict.

"Because now it will be the main issue of Russian foreign policy, the question of their survival", - added the journalist.


http://newsonline24.com.ua/shutki-zakonchilis-nachinayutsya-slozhnejshie-6-mesyacev-dlya-ukrainy

[Boethius]

I am linking an interesting article about the mindset in the DNR and LNR.  I think much of the observations are accurate.

My personal view is that the number of diaspora Ukrainians who poured into Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR had an impact on how civil society developed there.  I also believe the Poles played a critical role.  It is very imperfect, of course, bordering on a failed state because of its institutions, which did not undergo the same radical overhaul.  Most Ukrainian politicians are the former ruling elite, and most of them are crooks.  But there is a belief in the power of the people, a more Western, rather than Eastern outlook.  Will that last?  I don't know, and things are pretty dire.  We can only hope for the best.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/18/putins-policies-put-russia-at-risk-of-becoming-a-donbas-writ-large-snegovaya-says/

[JayH]

Interesting story. Of note-- the events of early 2014 saw considerable political uncertainty across Ukraine- some eg in the east was about keeping the status quo--hence the concern of what would come from Kyiv as a result of Maidan.
When reading about this period-- never overlook what Russia was up to in sowing and promoting the seeds of discontent  and uncertainty.


Igor Strelkov: Pro-Russian separatists have brought poverty and ruin to the Donbas

"The patriotism there is at such a level that the people who come see me say one thing: it is a pigsty and a mess! Everything that happens in Donetsk and Lugansk. I have no reason not to believe these people, because they are my comrades. Nobody came and said: Igor Ivanovich, it became better. Everyone says, a pigsty and a mess! That's what we've built in the Donbass, unfortunately," Strelkov said.


http://uawire.org/news/igor-strelkov-pro-russian-separatists-have-brought-poverty-and-ruin-to-the-donbas

[JayH]

Many times over the last few years I have commented on how Ukrainians have understood their position more clearly and what path to take.

Forget about the "special status": 64% of Ukrainian opposed to any concessions to terrorists "LDNR" - poll

Most Ukrainian, ie 64.2% of the respondents do not support granting the special status of Donbass. This is evidenced by the survey center "Social Monitoring" and the Ukrainian Institute of Social Research

Источник: http://www.amn.com.ua/blogy/zabudte-pro-osoblyvyj-status-64-ukrayintsiv-proty-bud-yakyh-postupok-terorystam-z-ldnr-sotsopytuvannya/

[msmobyone]

Many times over the last few years I have commented on how Ukrainians have understood their position more clearly and what path to take.

Forget about the "special status": 64% of Ukrainian opposed to any concessions to terrorists "LDNR" - poll

Most Ukrainian, ie 64.2% of the respondents do not support granting the special status of Donbass. This is evidenced by the survey center "Social Monitoring" and the Ukrainian Institute of Social Research

Источник: http://www.amn.com.ua/blogy/zabudte-pro-osoblyvyj-status-64-ukrayintsiv-proty-bud-yakyh-postupok-terorystam-z-ldnr-sotsopytuvannya/

..and what is the path to take ?

How can Ukraine take on Russian backed rebels? 

[mhr7]

Two of my coworkers came over from the Donbass. The one from Donetsk hated what happened at Maidan and wants to stay in Russia, the one from Lugansk wants Ukraine to reunite into one country. And the folks here dumb enough to believe the media (which seems to be a shrinking population) still blame the US for the whole thing.

[Gator]

And the folks here dumb enough to believe the media (which seems to be a shrinking population) still blame the US for the whole thing.

When the choice is blame the US or blame Putin, does one have a choice? 

[BillyB]

When the choice is blame the US or blame Putin, does one have a choice?

There is no problem for FSU citizens or American citizens to blame leaders.

An American and Russian citizen were talking one day and the American said "In my country I can walk up to a table Obama is sitting at, pound my fist on the table and say ""President Obama! I don't like how you're running this country!" and not get in trouble." The Russian said "I can do that too without getting in trouble". "Really?" the American replied. The Russian goes on to say "Absolutely! I can walk up to a table Putin is sitting at, pound my fist on it and say ""President Putin! I don't like how Obama is running his country!""

[tfcrew]

Russia is massing thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border. Here’s why we shouldn’t panic. Updated by Mark Galeotti on September 1, 2016, 10:00 a.m. ET

Russia is sending tens of thousands of troops to military installations near its border with Ukraine and holding snap military drills, sparking fears that a Russian invasion is imminent.These fears are overblown, however, for one major reason that everyone seems to have overlooked: The Ukrainian military of today is very different from the ramshackle, demoralized force of 2014.   In 2014, Ukraine’s pro-Moscow government, led by Viktor Yanukovych, collapsed as pressure grew for the country decisively to ally itself with the West. In response, Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula and stirred up a phony anti-Kiev rebellion in the southeastern Donbas region. The Kremlin thought the new Ukrainian government would quickly accept that it was in Russia’s sphere of influence, but instead it resisted.

http://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12729426/russia-troops-ukraine-border

 Smoke or fire?

[BC]

Smoke or fire?

Chess move.

[2tallbill]

Chess move.

[tfcrew]

Several Injured In Fire At Ukrainian TV Station        Last updated (GMT/UTC): 05.09.2016 09:48
  Five people were reportedly hurt when a fire broke out at a Ukrainian television station in Kyiv.
TV Inter's headquarters caught fire on September 4 after a group of around 20 protesters gathered outside the building and set tires afire and threw them in the building.
Reports say that several employees were treated for carbon-monoxide poisoning while another suffered a broken leg, according to an Inter statement.
Kyiv police official Andrei Krishenko said witnesses indicated a smoke bomb was thrown into the building.
Authorities said they had arrested six people in connection with the fire.
The station continued broadcasting from mobile facilities outside the building.
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-russia-tv/27967181.html

[JayH]

Some very brave  loyal Ukrainians in the east plea for help.
Some have floated the idea  of ceding the Donbass to Russia - the fact is that there are many loyal and good Ukrainians  stuck there through no fault of their own.



Donetsk teachers come out with Ukrainian flags, asking for help

“Donetsk Oblast is currently ruled by terrorist groups that have subordinated local authorities, taken over private buildings and industrial plants, organized their own tax system and bank, and intervened in the health and education sector. They consistently and persistently destroy anything Ukrainian that was created earlier in the Donbas. They have banned Ukrainian symbols, the Ukrainian language is perceived as a provocation, and anything said in defense of Ukraine or the Ukrainian Army is viewed as direct enemy propaganda. We are in a state of complete psychological isolation with regard to information. We are asking our countrymen to help us and liberate our land! Sincerely, Donetsk Ukrainians.”


http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/11/12/donetsk-teachers-come-out-with-ukrainian-flags-asking-for-help/#arvlbdat

[Darth_Budda]

Nationalization of Factories in East Ukraine

[JayH]

Interesting that these "mystery" deaths keep happening.
Reports also of key DNR people moving family and "friend" to Russia in the last few weeks.
There are also reports of DNR ordering civilians out of Adveeka area . It is of particular concern when you consider  the Russian history of scorched earth and razing cities when withdrawing. It also  fits the Russian agenda to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure and  cost  Ukraine as much as possible .

“LNR” separatist field commander killed in car explosion:


A series of mysterious deaths and murders of the leaders of the political and military branches of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” has taken place in the last year. We can expect this trend to continue, as the Russian commanders of the so-called “separatists” will continue to eliminate the leadership of the Russian-backed enclaves. The first leaders of the “republics” that rose to power in the spring-summer of 2014, the most odious field commanders and participants of large-scale smuggling and corruption schemes are in the first zone of risk, writes military analyst Dmytro Sniehyriov.


http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/05/donbas-separatist-field-commander-killed-in-car-explosion-lnr-onashchenko/

[JayH]

       There are many reasons that Russia would want to clean up the mess they have created in eastern Ukraine( & Crimea) In particular as mentioned here --and often overlooked --it was the Russia provocateurs and  Russian special forces  "little green men" that provided the organised muscle to allow the "local"  thugs to  take over many key  places in those early days and get a toe hold.
       The other major issue for Russia has been to eliminate the chain that leads to the shooting down of MH 17 and  the deaths of 298 people.

"The sequence of deaths of the “LNR” chieftains over the last year can indicate that the Russian side is starting to eliminate unnecessary witnesses who participated in the separatist rallies of 2014 and were carriers of secret information about the participation of the Russian special services in the occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts of Ukraine. Apart from that, these figures took part in the smuggling and corruption schemes which involved influential representatives of the Russian establishment, criminal authorities, Ukrainian oligarchs, and Russian politicians."

“LNR” separatist field commander killed in car explosion: three versions why

"A series of mysterious deaths and murders of the leaders of the political and military branches of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” has taken place in the last year. We can expect this trend to continue, as the Russian commanders of the so-called “separatists” will continue to eliminate the leadership of the Russian-backed enclaves. The first leaders of the “republics” that rose to power in the spring-summer of 2014, the most odious field commanders and participants of large-scale smuggling and corruption schemes are in the first zone of risk, writes military analyst Dmytro Sniehyriov."


http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/05/donbas-separatist-field-commander-killed-in-car-explosion-lnr-onashchenko/

[JayH]

Current events are a clear indication of Russian intentions.
It has become clear that Russia has no intention of returning  the Donbas regions to Ukrainian control.



This is what Putin thought of Donbas: there were sensational documents "DNI / LC", now known to be a "nationalized" enterprises, the prognosis is very disturbing


Russia intends to establish in the occupied territories of Donbass holding, which will include 18 "nationalized" enterprises, which is not so long ago stated and terrorist power. The network already has the documents, a list of those companies that gave a resident of the Russian Federation, who wished to remain anonymous.

Источник: http://www.amn.com.ua/blogy/vot-chto-zadumal-putyn-v-donbasse-poyavylys-sensatsyonnye-dokumenty-po-dnr-lnr-teper-yzvestno-chto-budet-s-natsyonalyzyrovannymy-predpryyatyyamy-prognoz-ochen-trevozhnyj/

[JayH]

Very topical discussion of issues facing Ukraine. Currently Russia has poured huge quantities of equipment into eastern Ukraine -it has become clear they have no intention of leaving,
Minsk has been used to confuse the issue --not solve it. Russia intends to settle ONLY on it's own terms.
For that reason -there will never be peace for Ukraine until Russia is removed from all of Ukraine.
That is only going to happen by forcing them out.

Why Ukraine must avoid the Transnistrian scenario
The Transnistrian conflict was organized by leaders of the former Soviet Union who had approximately the same goal as did  Russia in organizing the conflict in the Donbas. In Moldova the supporters of independence held strong positions. Moldova was another Soviet republic, together with the Baltic countries and Georgia, that did not see its future in the Soviet Union long before the August 1991 coup. And then the Kremlin decided to look for “weak spots” in these republics. For Moldova, this was Transnistria, the several regions with predominately Russian and Ukrainian populations. These regions were patched together to form a new “republic” that advocated the preservation of the USSR

http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/03/07/why-ukraine-must-avoid-the-transnistrian-scenario/

[JayH]

The Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2017 differ radically from where they were in 2014. This fact is understood in Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as in Moscow. Russia will never go for an act of direct military aggression against Ukraine, but instead will try use these territories as a destabilizing factor within the country.

Russia is following the same plan that it utilized in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria - capture a specific area, create a pro-Russian administration, and then freeze the conflict in order to maintain constant tension in the country.


Destabilizing factor: Why Russia needs the separatist-held territories of eastern Ukraine

Moscow has the return of the separatists controlled territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions back to the jurisdiction of Ukraine on its agenda, but only under Russian conditions. Right now Russia does not need a large-scale attack by the separatist troops in the Donbas or the escalation of hostilities.

The intention of the Russian Federation is to create a zone of a permanent social and military tension within Ukraine by returning these territories on the condition of the federalization of Ukraine, or by granting a special status to the separate areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which will allow them to block any decision by the central government regarding European relations with Ukraine and its integration into the European Union.

http://uawire.org/news/destabilizing-factor-why-russia-needs-separatist-held-territories-of-the-donbas

[JohnDearGreen]

Cossack Ataman Kozitsin, who appeared on a Vice News segment a couple of years ago, has started a "no confidence" petition on Igor Carpentry:
http://www.ostro.org/lugansk/society/news/521910/