Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?

[krimster2]

it's not just people over buying
you are starting to have a supply problem as well
every part of the food supply chain is gonna start cracking

the first peak of the virus will happen between may and july in the US of A
when do you wanna be out collecting can goods?
now, when only 1 out of every 1,000 is infected or 1 out of every 10 like at the end of July?

how long are they gonna make you heart meds?
how much of a supply do you have?

[msmob]

Russia not allowing in non citizens / non residents until May 2nd.. ((

Source: Russia Today

[BillyB]

Russia not allowing in non citizens / non residents until May 2nd.. ((

This thing isn't going away in a few months. It will die down then may explode again if we don't round up all the infected and they re-infect the population through community spread. Nations may have to implement China style quarantines to get control over the virus. Still, China is finding new infections everyday. What is your plan to reunite with your wife? Are there even any options available?

[BC]

I hope so, because the graphs say otherwise. 

The Italy graph is more disconcerting than the China graph.   The number of China infections  started to plateau (level off) a month ago.   Italy is not leveling off.  Worse the slope of Italy's graph is steeper than China 6 weeks ago before China started to level off.

Gator,

The data is in for today.  The number of new infections may be an early sign things are starting to level off while total infections, of course, continue to rise steadily.  I tend to keep my eye on new infections and the number of cases in intensive care which for the region of Lombardia is rising from around 500 the beginning of last week to over 800 today indicating that additional capacity is being added regularly.  Other regions south seem much more stable  Certainly not an all clear, but maybe a shimmer of hope.  A mistake was made, that of not locking down the entire country instead of just hot areas at first.  Beware.

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1

It does seem that lockdown has had a positive effect, figures in our region have been stable most of the week with less than 10 in intensive care all week long.  Hope it remains that way.  There is a huge difference between north and south Italy. 

As to the graph slope Italy vs China, too many variables like how much time it took to develop the test in China, when testing started, in which quantity testing was done etc. Of course, testing, in large quantity started later here than China.  The slope, at least initially, is defined by testing capability as it ramps up and doesn't show actual cases.  This my fear for the US with folks looking at graphs and thinking not much to worry about..  The 500 new cases reported in the US in the last 24 hours does seem to show that testing is starting to ramp up.  I hope testing expands rapidly that will show the true extent of infections and a better idea what we can expect.

[BC]

Therefore, I assign a  75% probability that we will soon see our military deployed on our streets.

I am serious. 

There is a 450 page CDC plan that lists steps leadership can take to help prevent such a breakdown and violence occurring.  Unfortunately much seems to have been ignored.

http://emergency.cdc.gov/cerc/ppt/cerc_2014edition_Copy.pdf

It does make for interesting reading.

[Gator]

The data is in for today.  The number of new infections may be an early sign things are starting to level off while total infections, of course, continue to rise steadily. 

I see a downtick in your chart of the daily incremental cases.   Great.  Hope it holds. 

Unlike China your chart shows the number of recovered only 25% greater than the number of deaths.   News reporters here say the Italian population is one of the oldest (fewer babies) in Europe and older than America's.  That would be a factor.  How about percentage of smokers? 

It does seem that lockdown has had a positive effect, figures in our region have been stable most of the week with less than 10 in intensive care all week long.  Hope it remains that way.  There is a huge difference between north and south Italy. 

In hindsight, it is now apparent the sooner the lockdown, the better, perhaps starting with the first cases, ahead of community spreading cases.   

The 500 new cases reported in the US in the last 24 hours does seem to show that testing is starting to ramp up.  I hope testing expands rapidly that will show the true extent of infections and a better idea what we can expect.

We can predict it now.  We will see a huge spike simply because we will quickly be testing 10⁴  more each day.   What to expect?  Fear and overreaction.

[Gator]

S&P Just shed nearly $2 trillion from opening. The madness prompted another 'pause' in the trading. I'm not convinced the Feds dropping the interest rates was a good idea. WTF? Total global contraction!!

The Fed's move is unprecedented.  Supposedly the financial markets were not functioning correctly with red lights flashing.  That is another way of saying there were not enough  buyers even at reduced prices. 

Many experts agree with you and are questioning the Fed's move.  We entered this viral crisis in a great position, having more cushion than the central banks of Europe., having an economy more robust than Europe's.   That cushion we had is greatly diminished.     

Government is trying to "flatten the curve" of infections in regard to preparing for the demands placed on our healthcare systems.  Some people claim such measures as closing commercial establishments, schools, etc.  are too early.  The response:   better safe now than sorry later.   

The Fed's move could be in the same spirit.
 

This is starting to feel like a fabricated chaos. Not saying it is, but so many unexplained 'reactions' caused by this current 'pandemic' that still has to measure up to ones in recent past.

It seems so bizarre to see commercial business shutter.  We are a consumer economy, now with less  money for consuming.   It is temporary, yet the extent is too broad to give feelings of optimism.  We will survive.  We will prevail.  And then we will thrive.  However, it will not be  a "V" recovery.   
 
I wonder how the fearless, moral, patriotic, hardworking, united people of the WWI era behaved during the Spanish Flu. 

For sure we are not the same innocent people of the era when Hit Parade's No. 1 song was "How Much is that Doggy in the Window."       

[BC]

Unlike China your chart shows the number of deaths only slightly above the number of recovered.

What is shown as 'recovered' are those that have been discharged from hospital care so a fuzzy figure.

News reporters here say the Italian population is one of the oldest (fewer babies) in Europe and older than America's.  That would be a factor.

 

Indeed supported by the data and median age of deaths in the 80's but reportedly falling.

How about percentage of smokers? 

Not in the data.

In hindsight, it is now apparent the sooner the lockdown, the better, perhaps starting with the first cases, ahead of community spreading cases.

 

I tend to agree and the numbers seem to support it.  Italy was able to publish a national lockdown plan with specific things that folks should do or not do along with implementing controls.  I doubt an efficient lockdown will be possible or generally heeded by the population in the US.  If the troops have to come out to enforce, violence is very likely to follow.  The virus is a national problem that needs national solutions and guidelines.  That's not happening with each state deciding for themselves and the administration and CDC only providing recommendations.

We can predict it now.  We will see a huge spike simply because we will quickly be testing 10⁴  more each day.   What to expect?  Fear and overreaction.

10⁴ daily is very, very optimistic.  Looks like it will be well into next week before a good number of labs and equipment are set up.  The US is a big country, much bigger than Italy.

[Chelseaboy]

Do we know why Germany has had 15 deaths from 7,241 confirmed cases and yet here in the UK we've had 55 deaths from just 1,543 confirmed cases.?

[BC]

Chelseaboy,

maybe just a matter of time.

[BC]

Trump administration is trying to lure other countries labs to America. It's a good time to be a lab. Everybody wants to throw money at them.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/germany-tries-to-stop-us-poaching-german-firm-seeking-coronavirus-vaccine/ar-BB11dfdv?ocid=spartanntp

I'm glad this type of hoarding was nixed, with the company refusing Trump's offer.

[GQBlues]

I'm glad this type of hoarding was nixed, with the company refusing Trump's offer.

LMAO! This rumour is way overplayed. Curevac had received and accepted monies from all sources including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for a whole slew of things. It avails its research from many different organization and countries and had even received seed funding from the same. Just as the US - like any other countries, including past administrations - solicit such foreign companies exactly for such services.

All of these research laboratories are 'for hire', including US-based. This was once termed 'globalization'. Remember that?

Anyway, the first clinical trial 'vaccine' administration was done in Seattle today. There apparently were 45 volunteers between the ages of 18-55. The administration will comprise of two phases - Zero day (today) and 28th day.

[GQBlues]

Do we know why Germany has had 15 deaths from 7,241 confirmed cases and yet here in the UK we've had 55 deaths from just 1,543 confirmed cases.?

Without actual data, very difficult to ascertain why - right now. It may well simply be because of the individuals involved i.e. age, state of health, etc...

[calmissile]

It's a very good question and it deserves an answer without political spin.  Again, without defining the database it is all speculation.

Learned this morning that one of our engineers has his wife stuck in Spain.  She is there with 23 American students that are trying to get home.  They had initially planned to take a flight from Barcelona to JFK and were told today that they would have to return via Heathrow.  Needless to say he is on needles and pins.

A question of perspective...... As of today, how many deaths this season have occurred due to the flu vs. how many deaths due to the Corona Virus.  Does anyone know?

[BillyB]

Do we know why Germany has had 15 deaths from 7,241 confirmed cases and yet here in the UK we've had 55 deaths from just 1,543 confirmed cases.?

Germany has always been slow reporting. Every nation reports the way they want to report. I seen S Korea's behavior in reporting change. They started off having high deaths and same ratio in recoveries like Italy. They haven't reported much deaths lately yet they report a lot more recoveries. Politicians such as Prez Moon is under a lot of heat. Many will lose their jobs. There could be some number manipulations like what goes on in China. My guess is there are a lot more people dead than what's been reported. Just over 7000 reported deaths total in the world and nearly every nation is behaving like the end of the world is coming.

[Chelseaboy]

Billy,

      Yes all very odd.

1.5 million people died of TB worldwide in 2018 but no talk of lockdowns then.

Because of the Governments responses to the Corona virus,with borders being sealed ,flights being cancelled,pubs and restaurants being told to close, thousands and thousands /millions of people won't be able to pay their bills. ..it's leading up to anarchy in the UK.

All for a virus that has so far killed 7,000 people worldwide in three months.

Something doesn't add up.

[krimster2]

by mid-April, the USA will have more cases than China...
and after mid-April, it's another six weeks before the virus STARTS to reach its first peak

if this rebounds AGAIN in Flu season or when quarantine ends...
then I expect 2-3 times the number of deaths from Spanish Flu in the USA
in the FIRST year!!!!!

or as the President would say "the virus is a democratic hoax, every bit as much a hoax as the Meuller investigation and my perfect phone call to Ukraine"
first truth he has ever told

[Gator]

Chelseaboy,

maybe just a matter of time.

Exactly, BC's chart shows most of the cases are recent infections. 

[Gator]

Anyway, the first clinical trial 'vaccine' administration was done in Seattle today. There apparently were 45 volunteers between the ages of 18-55. The administration will comprise of two phases - Zero day (today) and 28th day.

Great News!   

But first a correction.  "Phases" is misleading.  The study now underway is referred to as Phase One Clinical Trial.   A new drug must go through three clinical trials before being submitted to the FDA for review and possible approval. 

          Phase One:  20 - 80 participants 
          Phase Two:  100 -300
          Phase Three:  1,000 - 3,000



The new drug went through preclinical development, and received  the fastest FDA approval in history for a Phase One Trial (testing in humans).   Quantity of dosages will be varied among the test volunteers, who will be monitored for a year.  Let's hope it functions to induce human cells to produce antibodies against COVID-19.

There are other candidate vaccines being considered for COVID-19. 

The bad news:   vaccines for several diseases have been studied over many years without success.  Cholera, a historic disease, had it first vaccine approved by FDA not until 2016.   

[msmob]

For anyone checking UK figures.. they are meaningless bollox ..

'We' are not testing folk who claim to be ill with the virus at the mo ..  despite WHO requests

Apart from who's died from it ... 

'We' have no idea



http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/coronavirus-government-vows-accelerate-testing

[krimster2]

and who was Waldemar Haffkine then?
a chopped liver salesman in Liverpool?

[GQBlues]

As Bruce Palmer once sang, For What It's Worth...

~ Illnesses range from mild to severe and even death. Hospitalization and death occur mainly among high risk groups. Worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths.

In industrialized countries most deaths associated with influenza occur among people age 65 or older (1). Epidemics can result in high levels of worker/school absenteeism and productivity losses. Clinics and hospitals can be overwhelmed during peak illness periods. ~

http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

This literally happens every year, yet no one even blinks.

Crazy!

[BillyB]

I remember South Korea was a couple a days ahead of Italy with their outbreaks. Infections, deaths, and recoveries for both countries were about the same and ratios between categories were the same then something happened. Citizens were pissed at prez Moon and South Korea's numbers began to look more like China's instead of Italy's.

I went back and seen I once reported S Korea' s numbers as having 50 deaths and 118 recoveries which was similar to Italy's reporting at the time. Now S korea reports only 75 deaths and 1137 recoveries while Italy reports 2158 deaths and 2749 recoveries. Big difference in death to recovery ratios between two nations that started their outbreaks almost at the same time.

In industrialized countries most deaths associated with influenza occur among people age 65 or older (1). Epidemics can result in high levels of worker/school absenteeism and productivity losses. Clinics and hospitals can be overwhelmed during peak illness periods. ~

http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

This literally happens every year, yet no one even blinks.

Crazy!

COVID-19 is much different than any pathogen anybody alive has experienced. The truth is scarier than the reports. When China was reporting death to recovery rations, people weren't nervous. Now they see Italy's numbers, they see a much higher percentage of people dying and chances are there will be no cure or anti viral medicine ever made.

A good thing that will come with the lock downs is not only we will reduce the numbers of COVID-19 infections, there will be less flus, less colds, and less fighting except over tp, so there will be a reduced load on hospitals so they can free up manpower and resources to fight COVID-19

'We' are not testing folk who claim to be ill with the virus at the mo ..  despite WHO requests

WHO would like everybody in the world to be testing but it's not going to happen tomorrow and even after person is tested, they can get infected minutes later. I'm not too fond of WHO right now. After lives are lost and economies are shattered, the survivors can go back and put the pieces together and see that WHO dropped the ball early in the game.

[krimster2]

on this exact day, in 2021....
the death toll from covid-19 in the USA will be "some number of millions"
it might be as low as 1+ million
or might be several times higher
depending on the date we begin national quarantine
and upon whether or not there is a covid resurgence again in September through December....
and whether new strains get developed and how lethal those are
please note that in general sars-covid has been becoming increasingly virulent
with both novel new major generation strains and more minor strains with no immunological overlap
I would expect MANY new strains of covid-19,
myself, I'd prefer to "get it" by Covid-21
cuz I like the sound of it more....

I know you guys don't believe me!
ya'll have that whole "proud 'ole redneck" vibe going on....

here's my bona fides.....

on March 30, there will be more than 500 per day dying in the USA
so please read this on March 31, and see if I am correct or not....

if I am, then a year from today, the deaths total will be at least a million + not sure how many more millions than that, because it depends on when we do a full shutdown quarantine of the entire USA!
and other factors

so, is this pretty Covid blossom a Perennial plant?
i.e. one that lives more than two years?
or does it bloom only once before withering
curious botanists will seek to inquire at "Uncle Krimster's Museum of MetaPhysics"

PS

once all of you realize the truth
your sphincters won't work any more...
they will go on on strike for higher pay, due to the more hazardous working conditions...
a$$h0les!!!
this IS WHY you must buy up ALL their toilette paper, every gawd damned sheet of it
NOW
then say "NAH-NAH" and drive around the walmart parking lot waving the TP out the window at them
then throw them a couple of sheets and watch em all dive after it and hit each other!!!!
and then the last guy holds up a few shredded pieces and starts crying... sad...

Apocalypse Rocks!!

[Trenchcoat]

Reckon it's all over for the EU in Europe now, too much bad debt in the EU and it's member nations and the whole lot will collapse. Many will probably vote to Chuck out the EU before then. Look for a resurgence of Mussolini's Fascist party in Italy and the Nazis in Germany.