Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?

[BillyB]

Billy, we have annual vaccine for influenza, yet tens of thousands of us still die of it every year. Think about that.

That's acceptable. We don't have to stop living because of the flu kill a few hundred people a day average. Even if we didn't have a vaccine from the flu, the deaths wouldn't be much higher. Less than half of Americans get a vaccine shot. It's not required. Most Americans go without protection from the flu every year. The vaccine doesn't always work because lab scientists sometimes predict wrong which strain will come out. I was at a private pharmacy last year to get my free flu vaccine the VA allows. They ran out of the VA approved vaccine and wasn't allowed to give me the other vaccine that an organization approved. There are different vaccines for flus because it's all based on predictions on how the virus will mutate and not all medical scientists agree and they will create different vaccines. So if a person gets a vaccine, they can still get the flu.

http://thenationshealth.aphapublications.org/content/47/9/E45

March 14th America had 57 deaths from COVID-19 and people said it was no more dangerous than the flu. Fair enough. They can point at the data and have a point. April 14th, in one month, we now have 26,064 deaths and that is with action taken against the virus. There shouldn't be any more claims this virus is not much worse than the flu. We should be past that point.

We went through this exercise before BillyB. It was as futile then as it is now apparently.

Yes, every time someone underestimates the virus and can't figure out why all governments are taking action against it sacrificing their economies, I will remind them why. It'll be like a broken record.

I estimate casualties could have been halved if Italy had implemented the national lockdown a week to 10 days earlier than they did.

I wouldn't say it would be that bad. If we look at the charts, curves that are high will fall quicker. Flattening the curve makes it shorter but it also makes it wider. Flattening the curves pretty much stretches the number of infections and deaths over a longer period of time which helps prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Italy got a big chunk of its population infected and if we have an immunity to the virus, the end result won't be so bad. Immunity has yet to be determine though. Without a vaccine, it's likely we are all going to get it at some point of our lives. By hiding and working from our homes, will make it more difficult for the virus to find us but it's just a matter of time and other nations will catch up to Italy eventually.

[GQBlues]

Each day more and more data are collected and analyzed, and the conclusion is always the same - actual statistics are less dire than predicted.  Its getting better.     

California’s 2019 population is 39.5 million. To date, 860 died of COVID.
New York’s 2019 population is 19.45 million. To date, 8,600 died of COVID.
USA 2019 population is 328.2 million. To date, 29,580 died of COVID.

For BillyB: Washington’s 2019 population is 7.62 million. To date, 494 died of COVID.

Seriously, go back to work America.

[BC]

If you’re trying to established a sound baseline to try and get a good rate and show how deadly something is, you need to create a datum, e.g. per xxx. 100,000, /million, etc. to get a better rate of whatever you’re trying to achieve.

Billy, we have annual vaccine for influenza, yet tens of thousands of us still die of it every year. Think about that.

'Rule of thumb' seems to be that out of 100 infected, 20 will be hit bad enough to be hospitalized, with 2-3% of those that are hospitalized die. 

Problem is that we've found no one that is immune to catching this bug.  As far as we know it will infect everyone unlike influenza where many are immunized and others carry some immunity from prior bouts, minor to severe.  Everyone does not get the flu every year and the infection rate is much lower than covid.

so max might look like 330 million, 66 million ending up in hospitals and 1.6+ million dead.. oops much higher as the hospitals would never be able to keep up with that amount of people.  This not counting for repeats as we do not yet know how long antibodies remain effective.

Nothing to sneeze at.

[BC]

I wouldn't say it would be that bad. If we look at the charts, curves that are high will fall quicker. Flattening the curve makes it shorter but it also makes it wider.

It seems to be much more akin to a nuclear reaction.  Leave the control rods in and there will be some activity, but pull out the control rods and it gets hot very quickly, or worse explodes.

There seems to be a 'critical mass' with the virus as well.  Once it reaches 15 per million or so (my guess) chances are it is going to explode on you.

Lockdowns and social distancing are our only control rods at the moment.

[Trenchcoat]

Some good news today, Trump is cutting off funding the WHO

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52289056

Basically due to all the bs they have been telling everybody and getting it wrong then making out they know and the general public don't when in fact it was the other way around. Like the bs figures it was giving out at the start of the number of deaths to those that became infected but not those that seen it through and recovered. I find a lot of these official bodies like the WHO get very arrogant in themselves and think their superior to all else. Hopefully this should take them down a peg or two from their lofty perch.

[BC]

Yet the UK does not and will likely give more in the future

[Trenchcoat]

Yet the UK does not and will likely give more in the future

Yes unfortunately countries love kissing up to these 'official bodies'. I really wish they wouldn't they get so full of themselves.

[msmob]

Trench, JUST like ave UK's SUN  reader...  You have the reading comprehension  of a 9 year old.

WHO are apolitical....They get info from govts and must assume it is accurate.

They asked nations to test, test and test and the UK / US didn't bother...



Germany did..


Shooting the messenger ....'Real smart..

[Trenchcoat]

Trench, JUST like ave UK's SUN  reader...  You have the reading comprehension  of a 9 year old.

WHO are apolitical....They get info from govts and must assume it is accurate.

They asked nations to test, test and test and the UK / US didn't bother...



Germany did..


Shooting the messenger ....'Real smart..

How's it going there Mobe? What's it like being confined to quarters? I imagine you must be getting cabin fever by now?

[Gator]

Although less dire (so far) than predicted, they are much worse than they could have been.  I estimate casualties could have been halved if Italy had implemented the national lockdown a week to 10 days earlier than they did.

Or China had locked Wuhan down earlier...or Trump had implemented the China travel ban earlier....or the CDC testing constraints been addressed earlier....

We cannot turn the clock back

But we need to look to the future...all aspects of the future

[fathertime]

Or China had locked Wuhan down earlier...or Trump had implemented the China travel ban earlier....or the CDC testing constraints been addressed earlier....

We cannot turn the clock back

But we need to look to the future...all aspects of the future

Yes, so blaming China has been ridiculous and an effort to deflect for political advantage.   Virus will leave earth when there are no longer hosts for them. 

Once that first person had this particular virus, and spread it to 10 others (Some of whom traveled) our fate was sealed.  Whether it takes days/weeks/months, the inevitability of the virus being everywhere (Even the remote Falkland Islands) was assured.     Among the priorities nowadays it is about flattening the curve, better treatments, and protecting the critical health care workers. 

Fathertime! 

[BC]

We cannot turn the clock back

But we need to look to the future...all aspects of the future

Sure, but first things first - testing.  It is what bit us in the past, is still biting us now, and will bite us in the future.

I remember 'everyone will be able to get one' and that is within the realm of possibility.  Just have to put our mind to it along with the war powers act to get it done.

Isn't it time to start addressing the root cause instead of the after-effect?

[fathertime]

Sure, but first things first - testing.  It is what bit us in the past, is still biting us now, and will bite us in the future.

I remember 'everyone will be able to get one' and that is within the realm of possibility.  Just have to put our mind to it along with the war powers act to get it done.

Isn't it time to start addressing the root cause instead of the after-effect?

My own opinion on testing is it will be a little bit like whack a mole.  The virus is loose and it now will have to run it's course.  I hope you are more right then me on this one, because your hope for testing is less foreboding then what I think is reality. 

Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

I remember 'everyone will be able to get one' and that is within the realm of possibility.  Just have to put our mind to it along with the war powers act to get it done.

Hola! 

I found a place where EVERYBODY can get tested and nobody is allowed entry.  Of course you need to be extremely well moneyed, or a housekeeper/cook for the extremely well moneyed.    It is as if "YAHOO NEWS" saw my last comment here and tailored this article for me to share!
Everyone Wants an Antibody Test. Everyone on This Private Island Can Get One.

Things are different in Fisher Island, the exclusive enclave off Miami Beach that is one of the wealthiest places in America. No uninvited outsiders are allowed in. Entrance is permitted only by boat.

And everyone who lives or works there can now get tested to see if they have developed protective antibodies to the coronavirus.

The island has secured the much-sought-after tests for all its residents and their staff through the University of Miami, which has a clinic on site that started scheduling residents last week for appointments, building by building, for a finger-prick blood test. In a matter of minutes, each person learned their results. Home health aides and housekeepers also got tested.....

http://www.yahoo.com/news/everyone-wants-antibody-test-everyone-121422536.html   

Fathertime! 

[BillyB]

Yes, so blaming China has been ridiculous and an effort to deflect for political advantage.   

They should continue to get blamed. They have created new restrictions into the study and release of any study for publication that talks about the origin of the virus. It's important we find the origin so we don't have another 10-100 trillion dollar fukc up and loss of millions of lives.

Hola! 

I found a place where EVERYBODY can get tested and nobody is allowed entry.  http://www.yahoo.com/news/everyone-wants-antibody-test-everyone-121422536.html   

Article said they paid $17 a test. Probably got a bulk discount. I remember seeing the test kit they used advertised last month. Link below. Question is...is it accurate enough to where our government will use it?

http://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

I think in the end, we are going to learn Trump's miracle drug, Hydroxychloroquine is ineffective against the virus. The drug is used by people who have lupus, a disease where people's immune system attacks flesh and organs. If a doctor gave Hydroxychloroquine to a person who had a mild case of COVID-19, it may actually restrain that person's immune system giving the virus a better chance to win. So the drug and combo drugs should be reserved for the worst cases where a person's immune system is on overdrive. In the end, it's possible we will see Trump's miracle drug approved but with restrictions that are going to disappoint most people looking for a treatment 100% of the people can benefit from.

Early study came in saying Hydroxychloroquine doesn't clear the virus. A lot more studies are still ongoing though.

 http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/hyped-malaria-pill-doesnt-help-clear-coronavirus-in-study/ar-BB12EEbv?ocid=spartanntp

[msmob]

Some wonderful news ... A lady ..106 years young ..came through this ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-52296196

A 106-year-old great-grandmother, thought to be Britain's oldest patient to recover from coronavirus, has been discharged from hospital.

[ML]

California’s 2019 population is 39.5 million. To date, 860 died of COVID.
New York’s 2019 population is 19.45 million. To date, 8,600 died of COVID.

One factor . . . L.A. county is largest, in terms of area, in USA.

So density of people much, much greater in NYC as compared to L.A.
And, use of public transportation in NYC much, much greater in NYC compared to L.A.

Not sure of the density in S.F. compared to NYC.

[GQBlues]

One factor . . . L.A. county is largest, in terms of area, in USA.

So density of people much, much greater in NYC as compared to L.A.
And, use of public transportation in NYC much, much greater in NYC compared to L.A.

Not sure of the density in S.F. compared to NYC.

SF is nearly similar to New York (SF's Victorian row always reminded me of the residential districts of the Bronx/Brooklyn, and even districts in Philadelphia, except the architectural facade). Same type of lifestyle with the exception that NY, like Vegas, doesn't really 'sleep'. In some regards, though of lesser density than SF, so would San Diego & even Long Beach..

[GQBlues]

'Rule of thumb' seems to be that out of 100 infected, 20 will be hit bad enough to be hospitalized, with 2-3% of those that are hospitalized die.

It appears to be the pattern. I will agree. 

Problem is that we've found no one that is immune to catching this bug.  As far as we know it will infect everyone unlike influenza where many are immunized and others carry some immunity from prior bouts, minor to severe.  Everyone does not get the flu every year and the infection rate is much lower than covid.

so max might look like 330 million, 66 million ending up in hospitals and 1.6+ million dead.. oops much higher as the hospitals would never be able to keep up with that amount of people.

This I don't agree. Like influenza so far, COVID infection doesn't always equate to people getting hospitalized, 80%+/- do not if the average maintain itself. The majority simply practice home quarantine until recovery. In addition, while we don't have a definitive number for obvious reasons, there are a great many that are asymptomatic. You used the same calculation BillyB did. It's erroneous.

This not counting for repeats as we do not yet know how long antibodies remain effective.

I heard report of two cases, but haven't really made final conclusion if it was in fact a 'relapse'.

Nothing to sneeze at.

See above.

[BillyB]

You used the same calculation BillyB did. It's erroneous.

You don't need calculations or test kits to understand the danger. Just a small fraction of the population getting the coronavirus overwhelms hospitals, kills dozens of medical personnel and makes tens of thousands of them sick, not to mention shutting down the economy. We should be past the point of comparing this virus to the flu. There is no comparison. Over 175 million Americans don't get flu vaccinations. Flu is free to enter into the bodies of that amount of people but you will not see exponential growth of infections and deaths. With the coronavirus, you will see 57 Americans dead in the first two months. In the next 3 weeks you will see 26,000 Americans dead. In the few weeks you will see 260,000 Americans dead and the next month you will see 2.6 million dead if we allow it to roam free like the flu virus. That is how this coronavirus works and that is why you see governments take the actions they take. We and Governments do not need to prove my or BC's calculations are true because it will cost millions or tens of millions of lives to see if we're right.

[BC]

This I don't agree.

GQ,

Indeed I was wrong.

The 100 are those that were tested, meaning they had some symptoms and went to the hospital to get tested.  We can pretty much assume this is the case for the vast majority due to the shortage of testing.

[Gator]

I HAVE BEEN WRITING THIS AMID SEVERAL INTERRUPTIONS.  BC and GQ  FOLLOWUP POSTS MAY MAKE IT REDUNDANT.

'Rule of thumb' seems to be that out of 100 infected*** with symptoms, 20 will be hit bad enough to be hospitalized, with 2-3% of those that are hospitalized die. 

______________________________________________________________
*** People who presented themselves to  a health care facility, expressed sufficient symptoms to justify testing, and the testing reported "positive."   Some were immediately admitted to a hospital, and the others returned home to quarantine.   Some of those in home quarantine were later admitted to the hospital.   



This testing coverage is missing what is believed to be a significant proportion of the total population.   First are the FPs who never went to a healthcare facility.  Also, there have been many recent reports of random testing such as the maternity ward testing in NYC.  Such random testing reveals a high number of asymptomatic carriers, indicating the denominator is much greater than 100.  The numerator is also subject to more analysis, showing the it needs to be adjusted downward.   

The more we test, the more the case fatality ratio drops.  Some are suggesting it to be as low as 0.1%.  Who knows?     To confirm this less dire outlook,  we need statistically representative testing, not testing of the entire population.  The $43 serology test for antibodies will help.     

[BillyB]

The more we test, the more the case fatality ratio drops.  Some are suggesting it to be as low as 0.1%.  Who knows?     To confirm this less dire outlook,  we need statistically representative testing, not testing of the entire population.  The $43 serology test for antibodies will help.   

A .1% case fatality rate is equivalent to the flu case fatality rate and if true, we would not see our hospitals overwhelmed and there would not be a need to shut down the economy. The world's governments can accept 1 out of every 1000 people dead from any pathogen.

SARS had an 11% case fatality rate. Of course China under reported on that too so excluding China's numbers the case fatality rate of SARS is 16.4%

MERS had a case fatality rate of 34.3%

This new coronavirus has rocked this world much more than those two coronaviruses combined. The truth is easy to see. If it makes anybody feel better to believe this virus is no more dangerous than the flu, do what you need to feel better.

[ML]

Before we get too excited about perhaps lower death rates from Corona and thoughts that the shut downs were unnecessary . . .

Realize that the above is because of the shutdowns and social distancing.

[BC]

Gator,

Indeed, cross post.  You and GQ are correct that I was wrong That of course does not mean you two or even I are right LOL

You might find the attached interesting.  Unfortunately can't say the same for the US daily infection graph.  There is a peak, but not a discernable downward trend quite yet.  Will be interesting to compare down the road.  I found it interesting that our decline in daily infections is quite linear even with a quite large number of tests being performed.  Looks like we have approximately another month in lockdown for the vast majority of the country barring any surprises...