The Struggle For Ukraine

[fathertime]

No, the demands are because internal Russian analysis is telling them they can't win in the long term.  Putin believed the Ukrainian population would capitulate, that his troops would just march in and take the country.  He never expected resistance.  That's why there is this "face saving" measure. 


I don't think Ukraine should agree to neutrality.  I think Ukraine should have good relations with Russia, but given everything that's happened since 2014, that will take at least a generation.


Russia has planted landmines in civilian escape corridors, shot fleeing civilians (women and children), dropped cluster bombs in civilian areas of Kharkiv, and lost control of at least one city they had taken.  They can't go to a "greater scale" unless they are willing to lose thousands of soldiers to do so.

The rhetoric coming from Russian leadership doesn't indicate they are budging and will in fact go much further.  It seems they are willing to shut off nord steam 1, as they state they have other buyers.   They state oil will be $300 a barrel or more.   It would seem they will suffer, and they will make their enemies suffer with them to the extent they can.  It seems to be in their view, that there will be no bridge too far when it comes to their objectives in Ukraine.   

I don't think they are going to be winning much either way for now.   

Russia warns West of $300 per barrel oil, cuts to EU gas supply

Western countries could face oil prices of over $300 per barrel and the possible closure of the main Russia-Germany gas pipeline if governments follow through on threats to cut energy supplies from Russia, a senior minister said on Monday......

.....“If you want to reject energy supplies from Russia, go ahead. We are ready for it. We know where we could redirect the volumes to.”

Novak said Russia, which supplies 40 percent of Europe's gas, was fulfilling its obligations in full but that it would be entirely within its rights to retaliate against the European Union after Germany last month froze the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.....

http://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/08/Russia-warns-West-of-300-per-barrel-oil-cuts-to-EU-gas-supply   

Fathertime! 

[Bee Farmer]

Look at what is happening to Mariupol Gaunty, they've got it surrounded and are bombing it. What do you think they are going to do with Kyiv? Odds on the same, surrounded it, halt armour outside the city surrounding it and bomb the hell out of it. A large city is going to run out of food quick, the Russians can sit there all day long, everyday. Once out of food people are going to want to give up the fight, even soldiers, they will see that it is hopeless and give up. At the present the only way out of the city is south, if I were there I would go south quickly while there is still a chance.

Not everyone is a coward Trench.  You might want to study history.
How long was the Battle of Stalingrad?  Or the siege of Leningrad?
Sarajevo was under siege for about 4 years, with daily bombings.

[Boethius]

Keep in mind the Russians killed 4.5 million Ukrainians during the Holodomor.  Loss of life will not bother them.  I wouldn't put it past the Russians to start using biological or chemical weapons in Ukraine.  (What do they have to lose?)

I don't disagree that loss of life won't bother them - look at what they did in Syria.  However, it wasn't "Russians" who starved Ukrainians.  It was Soviets. 

The rhetoric coming from Russian leadership doesn't indicate they are budging and will in fact go much further.  It seems they are willing to shut off nord steam 1, as they state they have other buyers.   They state oil will be $300 a barrel or more.   It would seem they will suffer, and they will make their enemies suffer with them to the extent they can.  It seems to be in their view, that there will be no bridge too far when it comes to their objectives in Ukraine.   

I don't think they are going to be winning much either way for now.   

Russia warns West of $300 per barrel oil, cuts to EU gas supply

Western countries could face oil prices of over $300 per barrel and the possible closure of the main Russia-Germany gas pipeline if governments follow through on threats to cut energy supplies from Russia, a senior minister said on Monday......

.....“If you want to reject energy supplies from Russia, go ahead. We are ready for it. We know where we could redirect the volumes to.”

Novak said Russia, which supplies 40 percent of Europe's gas, was fulfilling its obligations in full but that it would be entirely within its rights to retaliate against the European Union after Germany last month froze the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.....

http://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/08/Russia-warns-West-of-300-per-barrel-oil-cuts-to-EU-gas-supply   

Fathertime! 

Thanks to milder whether and liquified gas from the US, EU stocks will soon be replenished.  Canada has over 563 Tcf of natural gas, and 165.4 billion barrels of oil.  That's just one country. 

Prices for natural gas were down $4 per gigajoule today.  Oil prices may rise initially, partly because there was so little investment from the collapse in 2014 to now, but that will change quickly.

The Telegraph has a good article on this.  I can share this token.

http://archive.ph/ExYGg

[Bee Farmer]

I don't disagree that loss of life won't bother them - look at what they did in Syria.  However, it wasn't "Russians" who starved Ukrainians.  It was Soviets. 

The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.  For all intents and purposes, I consider Russians and Soviets to be basically the same thing.  (Russia assumed the position of the Soviets in the UN.  Same people.  Same mentality.  They just rebranded themselves with a different name.)  It's like arguing the difference between hogs and pigs.

[Bee Farmer]

The media is reporting that the Ukrainians killed another Russian general near Kharkiv.  Major General Vitaly Gerasimov.

Tomorrow is Women's Day.  And Russia will have to break it to his mother and wife that he got killed.

With tomorrow being Women's Day, I wonder how much backlash and public outcry there will be in Russia for the women who get killed in Ukraine on Woman's Day.  That's a heck of a Woman's Day gift from Russia...killing Ukrainian women.

[Grumpy]

It would seem most of Russia's "shock & awe" turned out to be " aw shucks.....we better attack apt. buildings, women, and children"

[Grumpy]

NATO allies have plenty of surface-to-air (sam) weapons to furnish Ukraine and possibly Moldova if they want. (using a lend-lease program simalar to what was used in WW2) Such an action would probably keep Russian pilots shaking in thier panties on Ukrainian missions.

[tfcrew]

IIRC fighters would be classified as offensive weapons.  AFAIK, most if not all weapons provided to UA are defensive.

It would be defensive if it doesn't fly into enemy space.
However... who would fly this aircraft? Ukrainian military pilots could fly MIGs, but few [I imagine] can operate western fighters.
 

[tfcrew]

  Once out of food people are going to want to give up the fight.... the Russians can sit there all day long, everyday. 

The Russians have to eat too don't they?  Let's hope they get hungry and go home.

[Patagonie]

I don't disagree that loss of life won't bother them - look at what they did in Syria.  However, it wasn't "Russians" who starved Ukrainians.  It was Soviets. 


Thanks to milder whether and liquified gas from the US, EU stocks will soon be replenished.  Canada has over 563 Tcf of natural gas, and 165.4 billion barrels of oil.  That's just one country. 

Prices for natural gas were down $4 per gigajoule today.  Oil prices may rise initially, partly because there was so little investment from the collapse in 2014 to now, but that will change quickly.

The Telegraph has a good article on this.  I can share this token.

http://archive.ph/ExYGg

I read it, wow that's huge. 

[Chelseaboy]

Shell has announced it's no longer buying Oil or Gas from Russia and is closing all it's petrol stations in Russia.

[fathertime]

No Russian oil here in the states is going to raise prices on everything.    We shall see what the public thinks of all of this once all the price increases start to take hold.   I think it is going to upset the entire economy. 

There are some whispers already about 'secondary sanctions'.  Sanctions on nations that decide to buy Russian oil.   We (The US) should not be able to cause suffering & dictate who other nations buy oil from; it isn't our choice.     I don't think the rest of the world will listen.      Venezuela, and Iran are large oil producers subjected to US hegemony.     We can start drilling for our own oil once again, if we can find the wherewithal to do that.   

Looking at Russia's current demands, if that is what they were bringing to the table before the battle began, they weren't entirely unreasonable, especially given the potential worldwide consequence.  If you look at people across the globe (Not just Europe and US) there is a luke warm reaction to this event.  Because of that, I don't think we will be able to 'choke Russia out'. 

Oil gains on expectations U.S. will ban Russian crude imports

.....Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent surging past $129 a barrel on expectations that the United States will announce a formal ban on Russian oil imports, stoking supply concerns.....

....."Assuming the U.S. does not impose any secondary sanctions, thereby forcing other countries likewise to halt their Russian oil imports, we believe that the impact of any unilateral U.S. move would be limited," Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.....

http://www.reuters.com/business/oil-see-saws-near-14-yr-highs-us-weighs-russia-oil-embargo-2022-03-08/

Fathertime! 

[Chelseaboy]

Oil AND Gas imports from Russia now banned by the USA.

[ML]

Saw on news last night a discussion between Kurt Volker and a retired General who had previously been head of NATO forces.

Kurt said from a purely humanitarian viewpoint we must establish the No-Fly zone.  He said we would make it clear that western planes would not attack Russian planes unless first attacked, and would not attack Russian forces on the ground unless first attacked.

Kurt said after the German massacres of civilians in WW2, we (the west) said it would never be allowed to repeat.

The General made the standard argument that the result of the No-Fly zone would be to widen the war to other countries.

But Kurt countered that, if Putin gets his way in Ukraine, he will later expand the war to other countries anyway.  First maybe to non-NATO countries like Moldova and Finland.

I was not able to see the interview with General McMaster, who also is a proponent of the No-Fly zone, as I didn't agree to the cookie request.

[BC]

ML,

One issue is that UA fighters may shoot down the wrong planes, or get blamed if RU soldiers do.

[Chelseaboy]

Saw on news last night a discussion between Kurt Volker and a retired General who had previously been head of NATO forces.

Kurt said from a purely humanitarian viewpoint we must establish the No-Fly zone.  He said we would make it clear that western planes would not attack Russian planes unless first attacked, and would not attack Russian forces on the ground unless first attacked.

Kurt said after the German massacres of civilians in WW2, we (the west) said it would never be allowed to repeat.

The General made the standard argument that the result of the No-Fly zone would be to widen the war to other countries.

But Kurt countered that, if Putin gets his way in Ukraine, he will later expand the war to other countries anyway.  First maybe to non-NATO countries like Moldova and Finland.

I was not able to see the interview with General McMaster, who also is a proponent of the No-Fly zone, as I didn't agree to the cookie request.

I saw the interview General McMaster did with Sky News and posted about it in post 984 in this very thread.

[fathertime]

Kurt said after the German massacres of civilians in WW2, we (the west) said it would never be allowed to repeat.
 

On CNN yesterday, I read those 400 civilians had been killed.   People here are stating that Russia is bombing apartment buildings (Presumably loaded with harmless civilians) and shooting people exiting through humanitarian corridors.       It would seem that something is either off with the numbers either from CNN or by accounts I read.  Given the vast operation, 400 dead isn't as much as I would have expected.    2 million people have already exited Ukraine, and at the rate of the flow it won't be long before most everybody that wants to leave will have left.   It would seem that may be one of Russia's goals.   

Normally I would say a No Fly Zone is a bridge way too far for the US to take but given the lengths the US has already taken I wouldn't be so sure it isn't a serious consideration now.  While that may be a bluff, the US may be thinking of getting into Russian heads with this posturing (To Bring Russia to the Bargaining Table in a slightly weaker position) I think a no-fly zone would be a Russian red line that one crossed will escalate the crisis into something much larger.

Fathertime! 

[ML]

ML,

One issue is that UA fighters may shoot down the wrong planes, or get blamed if RU soldiers do.

Of course.  And we can be sure that even if Russia shoots down the planes, they will deny and lie as is their norm.

[ML]

I saw the interview General McMaster did with Sky News and posted about it in post 984 in this very thread.

Yes, I saw your post, so thanks for that.
However, as I said, I wasn't able to view as I refused to agree to the cookie request.  That is my standard procedure.

[ML]

I think a no-fly zone would be a Russian red line that one crossed will escalate the crisis into something much larger.

Of course, and I already spoke to that issue by telling the words and reasoning of Kurt Volker.

So best to not just keep repeating this refrain (escalate) and instead address the logic stated by Kurt.

i.e. But Kurt countered that, if Putin gets his way in Ukraine, he will later expand the war to other countries anyway.  First maybe to non-NATO countries like Moldova and Finland.

I posted earlier that after Ukraine is sacrificed, then the west will come to the aid of Finland with direct military offensive involvement when Russia attacks.

It will take several generations before the western guilt over that will be absolved.

[Boethius]

On cookies - you can clear your online history and cached files.  This will delete cookies.

[ML]

On cookies - you can clear your online history and cached files.  This will delete cookies.

Yes, but we don't want to clear all cookies.  They are useful in logging into websites, such as this one, without having to remember handles and passwords.

I try to limit stored cookies that I don't want to save by not agreeing to them.  Of course, many sites put their cookies on our computers without asking.

[fathertime]

i.e. But Kurt countered that, if Putin gets his way in Ukraine, he will later expand the war to other countries anyway.  First maybe to non-NATO countries like Moldova and Finland.

I posted earlier that after Ukraine is sacrificed, then the west will come to the aid of Finland with direct military offensive involvement when Russia attacks.

Why would Russia decide to try take more territory after this costly mess...?  But to be sure, there should be serious armed forces on all the other bordering countries.  Russia could make arguments regarding Ukraine, but none of those justifications would ring correct for a nation like Finland.  I think at that point the rest of the world would turn and see that as unjust and all of humanity would turn against Russia, probably even the Russians themselves.   
Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

However, as I said, I wasn't able to view as I refused to agree to the cookie request.  That is my standard procedure.

Accept their little cookie, it isn't poisonous.   

Fathertime!   

[Chelseaboy]

Poland has agreed to exchange their MIG 29's for fighter jets from the USA.


The Polish MIG 29's are going to a US Air base in Germany,presumably for the Ukrainian pilots to fly them to Ukraine from there.