Forum > Married

Survey Results - First Question

(1/5) > >>

Admin:
Hey Folks,

The survey has been in the hands of the expert consultants who are preparing the report. They have had the data for some time, and are now a couple of weeks away from producing the initial report. For those interested, you can read about the consultants who are reviewing the data and preparing the report at their website, found here --> www.statisticssolutions.com.

The final results will include, or enable, direct statistical results parsed from the provided data - comparative statistics that evaluate differences and similarities between the results of our survey with the results of other surveys - and extrapolations (I think Dr. Lani uses the term 'predictive correlations') which take the data and makes predictions of future events.

Anyway - as something of a 'teaser' I thought it might be fun to gather a little input from you all on what you expect the results to state on several important factors.

Starting with the first, and arguably, the most important, I wonder what you believe will be the result of this question:

A006: Are you divorced from your cross-cultural spouse?

In the context of this poll, it means; 'What percentage of people who marry a partner from a foreign country, end in divorce?'

This speaks to the question of divorce rate among those of us who marry a spouse from a different country. For reference, consider the stats from this website about US divorce -- http://www.divorcerate.org/ - with links to divorce stats in the UK and elsewhere.

This poll will run for 7 days - at which time I will post the raw results from the survey we conducted.

Enjoy!

- Dan

Admin:
For comparison purposes, US divorce rate is reported to be "close to 50%".

It should be realized that the "close to 50%" divorce rate refers to the percentage of marriages entered into during a particular year that are projected to end in divorce or separation before one spouse dies.

That is the comparative stat we are using for purposes of this divorce rate.

- Dan

Source for the 50% statistic - US Census Bureau report, found here -- http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p70-80.pdf.

Summary states:

--- Quote ---Nearly half of recent first marriages may end in divorce.
--- End quote ---

kievstar:
You probably should use marriages that are 12 plus years in age difference and start with men 40 years and older. Finding the correct data is the hard part.  Maybe your 50% is this.

Admin:

--- Quote from: kievstar on November 11, 2008, 04:54:32 AM ---You probably should use marriages that are 12 plus years in age difference and start with men 40 years and older. Finding the correct data is the hard part.  Maybe your 50% is this.

--- End quote ---

We have the ability to parse the data to produce that stat - but I thought, for this comparison, it was best to keep it as simple as possible.

Anyway, tomorrow I will provide the result from our survey and how it compares with this other stat.

FWIW

- Dan

Mark Davis:
It is a difficult number to devise.  There are few facts and even fewer conclusions:

1.  According to the International Marriage Broker's Act of 2005 (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h109-3657): " . . . the total number of foreign fiance(e)s entering the United States each year more than doubled between 1998 and 2002. It is currently estimated, then, that at least 8,000 to 12,000 individuals in the United States find foreign spouses through for-profit international marriage brokers each year.

2. According to US Immigration statistics: "In 1996 about 54,000 spouses were sponsored by permanent resident aliens."  I don't have stats for more recent years.  This stat came from a report entitled MAIL-ORDER BRIDE INDUSTRYAND ITS IMPACT ON U.S. IMMIGRATION by Robert J. Scholes, PhD as posted on AFA's website.

3.  "According to data supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau, there were 2,395,000 marriages in the U.S. in the 12 months ending June, 1997 (and 1,154,000 divorces in the same period). The 4,000 to 6,000 marriages involving international services represent, then, a tiny portion (.021 percent) of the women who marry U.S. men."  This comes comes from the same report by Dr. Scholes.  he goes on to say: "It is interesting to note that, based largely on data provided by the agencies themselves (along with the Commission on Filipinos Overseas report cited above), marriages arranged through these services would appear to have a lower divorce rate than the nation as a whole, fully 80 percent of these marriages having lasted over the years for which reports are available."

So what can we conclude?  Well, we have to just do some intelligent guesswork.

* Item 2 states that there were 54,000 fiance visa sponsored immigrants in the one year of 1996.
 
Item 3 states that there were 4,000 to 6,000 divorces involving foreign brides of U.S. men in 1997 out of all 1.154 million divorces.

If those numbers were representative of each year's statistics that would mean about 50k foreign marriages and 5k foreign marriage divorces each year.  That's only a 10% divorce rate.

Item 3 goes on to state (although without solid substancation in the summary article) that 80% of these foreign marriages have continued.
* Even I can't believe the numbers would be that low - however, my gut tells me that these foreign bride/U.S. men marriages are much more successful than our U.S. to U.S. counterparts.  My science is much less sophisticated.  I just ask, "How many marriages do you know that are so good you wish you could have the same kind of relationship?"  I can only think of one US/US marriage, but I can think of many more that are foreign/US I admire.  Without boasting, everyone I know wishes they had the kind of relationship I share with my wife.

Mark

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[#] Next page